Zephyrite Supply Boxes Drop Rate Data (500k)

[Illconceived Was Na.9781]

Zephyrite Box Profits (Loss) 2020tl;dr huge loss for the vast majority of players

• sell any mats that spiked in price instead to fund your goals
• cost ~11.3s/box, likely value ~2.9s
• = net loss (~8.4s/box), i.e. worse than -75% loss

(with "expected" lucky drops, it's break-even or worse, and the chance of "lucky = value>100 gold" is 15/500k, i.e. 30 in a million boxes)

• Reddit Discussion
• Spreadsheet

Thanks to the indomitable u/sutgon @"sutgon.5402" for investing heavily in SCIENCE.

I won't be responding to comments; my opinions about lucky drops are well established, as seen in the equivalent 2019 post on the same topic.

[Illconceived Was Na.9781]

Interesting Drops

These are the ones with value of at least 100 gold

• Festive Confetti Infusion: 1 (2 per million)
• Other infusions: 5 (1 chak, 4 winter's heart)
• Scarlet's Rainbox skin: 4
• Invisible Shoes: 2
• Zephyr Rucksack skin: 3

For comparison, @sutgon.5402 also received 13 polylumi infusions (none worth more than ~~55 gold)

[Infusion.7149]

How is that surprising though?

[Talindra.4958]

2 years ago, my random open box for daily.. I purchased 30 box and got it.

[Friday.7864]

I avoid any kind of GW2 RNG like the plague if there's a chance of me losing money or gold :)

[sitarskee.5738]

Every year people re-discover same thing - gambling or loot boxes aren't profitable. (insert always have been meme)

[dandamanno.4136]

@sitarskee.5738 said:Every year people re-discover same thing - gambling or loot boxes aren't profitable. (insert always have been meme)

Aren't profitable for the player that is. The house always wins, as they say.

[Memoranda.9386]

It's primarily designed as a material sink. Unfortunately I think most people don't really bother with it, therefore doesn't pull an appreciable number from the game.

[Iris Ng.9845]

Back when Festival of the four winds was first re-released, ANet did a huge kitten up on the rare drop rates and flush the market with infusions. (I'm talking about 3k gold chak infusion off buying orders). They hashed out a fix which obviously overtuned the drop rates and kept them the same for years. The same patterns repeat everytime.

So the take out of the history lesson? Gambling box is only worth if it's freshly introduced.

Side note: it may be worth it to flip Chaos of Lyssa recipe. Or maybe not because the game is saturated with evermore flashy backpacks.

[Heimskarl Ashfiend.9582]

@Memoranda.9386 said:It's primarily designed as a material sink. Unfortunately I think most people don't really bother with it, therefore doesn't pull an appreciable number from the game.

Material prices tell the opposite tale.

[Super Hayes.6890]

@Memoranda.9386 said:It's primarily designed as a material sink. Unfortunately I think most people don't really bother with it, therefore doesn't pull an appreciable number from the game.

It does a good job on my materials lol. Most people are smarter than me though so you are absolutely right. I do find it fun to open these boxes though, which is the real pay off.

[RoyHarmon.5398]

I love it because it provides a convenient way for me to get rid of multiple stacks of Watchwork Sprockets.Now, if only they took those stinkin' Blade Shards...EDIT: Never mind, it looks like there's a trader who takes them, if I'm reading the wiki right.

[Memoranda.9386]

@Heimskarl Ashfiend.9582 said:

@"Memoranda.9386" said:It's primarily designed as a material sink. Unfortunately I think most people don't really bother with it, therefore doesn't pull an appreciable number from the game.

Material prices tell the opposite tale.

Key is most people. I have a few friends that dropped several hundred gold trying to get the rare/super rare drops. They're outliers temporarily driving an increase.

Prices go back to "normal" within a week or two, and has very little sustainable impact throughout the year.

Not that I'm complaining since I can sell my T5 mats that don't fit in my mat. storage for a decent rate for a change.

[Solvar.7953]

It makes sense that they are not profitable. If I could buy a bunch of materials from the TP, then buy some supply boxes and make money, I (and I'm sure) lots of other people would do just that, which would result in price of materials rising to the point where it is not profitable.

[Astralporing.1957]

@Solvar.7953 said:It makes sense that they are not profitable. If I could buy a bunch of materials from the TP, then buy some supply boxes and make money, I (and I'm sure) lots of other people would do just that, which would result in price of materials rising to the point where it is not profitable.

In most cases it results in the source dropping to the point where it's a slight loss (quite often only after you factor in the TP taxes), so overall it is a sink, but individual players can still hope for a lucky win. In this case however it's different, the drop rates are so bad that the loss from opening it is absolutely massive. There's no point even trying unless you consider yourself one of the luckiest people on earth, or are addicted to gambling (or, obviously, you're uninformed and don't know how bad the odds are). Selling mats is a much better option.