Red Lucky Bag - [Merged]

[lummuss.6850]

I was collecting "luck" since last year and now I spent it all on "Red Lucky Bag". The strange thing is that out of all that I opened, I didn't pick up any exotic backpack or any expensive garbage. I only got cheap rubbish, soups and the lvl 65 backpack (I got hundreds of those). Is that normal ?! Why didn't an exotic even come ?! I'm feeling like a muggle now. Has anyone else gone through this?Is it a festival of luck or just bad luck ?!

[lummuss.6850]

The strange thing is that the exotic backpack is next to the rare backpack (they have the same chance of being dropped because they are in the rare tab). And even after opening almost 2000 Red Lucky Bags, I didn't get any exotic. NO EXOTIC !!!!

[Omega.6801]

Randomness is random, who would have guessed.

[lummuss.6850]

But how is it possible that I dropped almost 20 rare backpack and none exotic? Because both have the same drop chance! Strange randomness!

[Omega.6801]

@lokh.2695 said:Randomness is random, who would have guessed.

Yup there is a possibility to throw a 6 sided die 100 times and it always lands on a 1. Randomness is strange and counterintuitive.

[Astralporing.1957]

@"lummuss.6850" said:(they have the same chance of being dropped because they are in the rare tab)That's actually a false assumption. Being grouped in the same rarity category does not mean equal drop chances. It just means they are on the same rarity tier drop table.

Imagine that the whole rarity category is a list. You roll a certain range (i.e. 1-100) and compare the result with the list:

• 1-50: item A
• 51-75: Item B
• 76-85: item C
• 86-92: item D
• 93-96: item E
• 97: item F
• 98-100: roll on higher rarity category list instead.

Now, as you can see in this example, items A, B, C, D E and F are on the same list, but the chances of obtaining item A are 50x greater than obtaining item F

So, in this case, both backpacks are on a "rare category" list, but within that list the chances of getting exotic backpack are significantly smaller than the rare one.

[Notice: the example is a great simplification, of course, but , based on what we've heard in the past, should be a good representation of how GW2 drop system is working]

[Randulf.7614]

https://en-forum.guildwars2.com/discussion/122919/i-just-opened-up-27090-lucky-red-bags#latest

The exotic backpack is much rarer than it seems as a drop

[Linken.6345]

OP did you boost your magic find?

[Kelly.7019]

ever since the changed magic find a year or two ago random luck has gotten much worse.

My current philosophy is expect to get only trash and crappy items. Then feel blessed/ lucky IF you get something neat.

[AnonBackStabber.8536]

I went through 80 stacks (20,000 essence) and received 8 exotic, and many hundreds of the rare backpack (w/ 920% MF). So I would expect about 1 every 10 stacks or so, maxing your MF...

The droobert turn-in is about 8/5 better coin for the trash, but that would have taken me literally hours of mindless grinding (instead of about 15 minutes opening, plus another ~30 minutes maxing MF to 920% in Silverwastes[sW]). I still have another 120 stacks to go...

[Belorn.2659]

@lummuss.6850 said:The strange thing is that the exotic backpack is next to the rare backpack (they have the same chance of being dropped because they are in the rare tab). And even after opening almost 2000 Red Lucky Bags, I didn't get any exotic. NO EXOTIC !!!!

I used about 70 stacks of 250, or about 18k in total. I also just opened them directly with no magic find boosters (a bit of mistake but w/e).Outcome was 3 exotic backpack, and 2 of the Golden Ox Figurine, and zero Ornamental Golden Trophy.

It was 100% worth it over droobert!

[Astralporing.1957]

@Linken.6345 said:OP did you boost your magic find?There are some concerns at the moment that the drop rate might be bugged at MF levels above ~350 or so. The checks so far seem to indicate that at the very least it doesn't get any better at higher MF levels than that, and that it might actually get worse.

@Belorn.2659 said:I used about 70 stacks of 250, or about 18k in total. I also just opened them directly with no magic find boosters (a bit of mistake but w/e).Outcome was 3 exotic backpack, and 2 of the Golden Ox Figurine, and zero Ornamental Golden Trophy.

It was 100% worth it over droobert!Lucky you. More than one person with similar amounts of bags opened claims to not receive even a single 8g figurine. Although their worse results may be connected to the abovementioned wonkiness with higher MF rates.Still, 2 in 20 000 seems to be well within the error range.

[Eloc Freidon.5692]

At least it is better than Drooburt without taking hours to dump.

[Firebeard.1746]

I opened about 100 at around 850%+ MF and am sure that I didn't get a single of the 8g ornaments (or even the 88s ones), apparently reddit has already determined they're bugged, but I see no dev mention of this:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Guildwars2/comments/lbdxs1/psa_dont_buy_lucky_red_bags_yet_they_may_be_bugged/

This is very important to understand what's going on here, otherwise the annoying drooburt conversion story is meta for raw gold. Can we get a developer comment? I'd like the most convenient way of converting to also be the most profitable. Also, i feel super cheated right now.

EDIT: This is embarassing, my OP had the wrong link.

[Linken.6345]

I rather take a hit in gold then click 2676 times on drooburt.

[Firebeard.1746]

Still though, this guy (who I believe is different than the others), with max magic find, opening 6k+ didn't get a SINGLE 8g ornament. That's broken.

It's more about them advertising a drop and it not showing up at all with max MF on massive quantities and the few times we actually see it is on lower MF.

[Eloc Freidon.5692]

Maybe next year it will get fixed, unless they forget to do it in time for next year, so maybe the year after that.

[SexyMofo.8923]

Magic find isn’t real. These bags just proves that the loot tables are all controlled by the devs.

[Inculpatus cedo.9234]

Lol. Of course, the loot tables are 'controlled' by the Devs. Who else would set them up?

[Omega.6801]

Devs don't care. "Your call is very important to us, please hold the line."

[FrizzFreston.5290]

Magicfind increases the rarity (colour) of your drops, not increase the rarity (preview category) of them.

Since the junk items are the lowest rarity (colour) more magic find means less junk items.

Working as intended.

This has been brought up previous years as well I believe. (Just not with this item)

[Sylvyn.4750]

Huh, and here I bought 3 of those bags from the guild vendor using guild tokens and got one of the 8g statues...and my magic find is not even halfway to max, I believe...so yes, maybe less magic find is better as Frizz stated above.

[Khisanth.2948]

It is either a bug or just further proof that rarity categories mean nothing since each item can have their own rates within each group. We didn't really need more proof though since previous data already showed that was the case.

@Sylvyn.4750 said:Huh, and here I bought 3 of those bags from the guild vendor using guild tokens and got one of the 8g statues...and my magic find is not even halfway to max, I believe...so yes, maybe less magic find is better as Frizz stated above.

Those are not the same bags. The ones OP is referring to is bought with essence of luck.

[Sylvyn.4750]

@Khisanth.2948 said:

@Sylvyn.4750 said:Huh, and here I bought 3 of those bags from the guild vendor using guild tokens and got one of the 8g statues...and my magic find is not even halfway to max, I believe...so yes, maybe less magic find is better as Frizz stated above.

Those are not the same bags. The ones OP is referring to is bought with essence of luck.

Gotcha...I see that now, guess I got the right ones because my MF wouldn't do well with the others!

[Ashantara.8731]

@FrizzFreston.5290 said:Magicfind increases the rarity (colour) of your drops, not increase the rarity (preview category) of them.

Since the junk items are the lowest rarity (colour) more magic find means less junk items.

Working as intended.

This is deceiving! I want my 20 stacks of exotic luck back! :angry:

@Firebeard.1746 said:This is very important to understand what's going on here, otherwise the annoying drooburt conversion story is meta for raw gold.

What does Drooburt have to do with it? You're getting nothing worth mentioning in return for your legendary luck from him. It's so much less than whatever you get out of those bags.