Fractal CM is no longer dropping Mystic Coins

[bruninpsico.8957]

My mystic coins, where are you? 

Hello, how are you?

well, through a ticket I made a little while ago, I was directed to expose the problem in this location or, in the support tab (in the game).

Well, I decided to expose here, as it is easier to type.

Anyway, what happens is that I asked to analyze the logs of the Fractal CM bosses that I killed in the last 7 runs (only fractal bosses 98/99/100) which is where mystic coin drops.

If any GM analyzes my account, you'll see that I don't do fractal daily, I just grind fractal cm's daily because of mystic coin.

And yes, the disappointment is great, as I didn't drop any mystic coins on at least 56 of these bosses being killed. 

Being them:

MAMA
Siax the Corrupted
Ensolyss of the Endless Torment

Skorvald
Artsariiv
Arkk

Ai, Keeper of the Peak (Two fases)

 

The most annoying thing is that I know that I keep dropping for those who do it with me, because I close parties only with a group of friends I know in the game, I don't do it with pugs.

Anyway, for some player who does this same type of content as me, it may seem strange, because for you it should be dropping normally, the only one who will understand this situation is the GM who will analyze the log and verify that this drop is really missing in the my account.

 

I don't want to cry here and have to increase the drop rate of this input on my account, ever, I just want the logs to be analyzed and see that I'm not creating this topic just because I want to give someone an advantage.

 

Anyway, thanks for your attention, I await answers if possible.

 

bruninpsico.8957

bruninpsico/Malone

 

 

 

 

[Cyninja.2954]

44 minutes ago, bruninpsico.8957 said:

The most annoying thing is that I know that I keep dropping for those who do it with me, because I close parties only with a group of friends I know in the game, I don't do it with pugs.

It's called RNG. You got unlucky.

 

I've had days of no Mystic Coin drops myself. I got unlucky. Next time you get 10+ or so Mystic Coins in 1 run, make sure to also ask for them to be removed given you were "to lucky".

Quote

Anyway, for some player who does this same type of content as me, it may seem strange, because for you it should be dropping normally, the only one who will understand this situation is the GM who will analyze the log and verify that this drop is really missing in the my account.

No GM will take the time to check this. They don't flag accounts for drops or no drops. You are just being paranoid after having an unlucky streak.

Edited August 3, 2021 by Cyninja.2954

[bruninpsico.8957]

Hmm... so do a minimum sequence calculation, where for 7 days I did it (complete CM's 98/99/100 runs), where every boss of these fractals has a chance to drop a mystic coin.

There are 56 bosses, and each one of them has a minimum drop chance.

I believe I passed this chance a long way, don't you agree?
 

 

 

[Linken.6345]

No 7 days is way to small a data time span come back in 2-3 months mate.

[Cyninja.2954]

5 minutes ago, bruninpsico.8957 said:

Hmm... so do a minimum sequence calculation, where for 7 days I did it (complete CM's 98/99/100 runs), where every boss of these fractals has a chance to drop a mystic coin.

There are 56 bosses, and each one of them has a minimum drop chance.

I believe I passed this chance a long way, don't you agree?

 

1. 7 days is FAR to small a sample size if the sample consists of only 1 account. Make sure the sample size is at least large enough to rule out any realistic possibility of bad RNG. Even a 1 in 100 (or 1 in 1,000) chance of bad RNG results is still possible and will affect players eventually

2. others seem to be getting Mystic Coins, which already rules out an issue with global drop rates

3. it is very unlikely that singular actions are taken against single accounts

 

1+2+3 = you had bad luck.

Edited August 3, 2021 by Cyninja.2954

[bruninpsico.8957]

2/3 months without drop would be a long overdue way to show the obvious, with all due respect my friend.

[Cyninja.2954]

Just now, bruninpsico.8957 said:

2/3 months without drop would be a long overdue way to show the obvious, with all due respect my friend.

but it isn't obvious. It is obvious only to people who do not understand math and outliers.

 

What is obvious to you is not mathematically impossible nor un-probable. In fact over the years I have been running CMs, I can tell you I've had multiple days of no Mystic Coins many times.

[bruninpsico.8957]

Days without drops I also had, but not such a discrepant sequence. I know we don't know what the drop rate percentage is, and this is information that only arenanet can give, but I know that the calculation for the number of times I've run is pretty flawed. Well, this is a question that only a GM can explain, hence my interest in log analysis.

[Inculpatus cedo.9234]

The chances (RNG) of getting a GM reply are about 1:100,000.

 

Best of luck. 

[DodonRay.8740]

i agree 3 days a row 0 most of the time 1-3.  i think they should fix drop 1 mystic coin per boss. Also every raid boss must give 1 mc. just look at the demand..

Edited August 4, 2021 by DodonRay.8740