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Some Correlations


Mammoth.1975

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First off, I'm no statistician. Secondly, yes, it's a very small sample size.

I took the results from 60 spvp games. Divided my teams score by the other teams score to get a score ratio (to hopefully get a bit more info than straight win/loss, by including how big a win or loss it was). Found the correlation coefficient between that number and each of the team stats (damage/healing/offense/defense/kills/revives). Correlation is just that and nothing more, correlation. The relationship between a lot of these numbers varies depending whether you're winning or losing, i.e, score contributes to these numbers just as these numbers contribute to score, so you can't really take much from this, but perhaps someone will find it interesting. All numbers taken from conquest games.

In order:Kills : r= 0.66Damage: r= 0.41Defense: r= 0.39Healing: r= 0.10Offense: r= 0.07Revives: r= -0.02 (yes, negative correlation)

Safe to say that defense shows a strong positive correlation because the more you're winning by, the more defending you're doing. The reverse may also be true, but I suspect it's a weaker relationship in that direction. I dunno, draw your own conclusions.

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One thing that would be nice is if this system could get an overhaul to display the kind of metrics that actually bear a strong correlation with your chance of winning (that hopefully demonstrate causal relationships), rather than the perhaps somewhat simplistic system in place. Defense should include all fighting when your score delta > theirs for one example, offpoint is useful in that situation. CC, CC breaks, cleanse, boonstrips, assists/take targets, idk, but I'm sure anet has the data, or if not, can obviously obtain it easily. How many times winning teams caused x event vs how many times losing teams did the same seems like a relatively straightforward way to find out which events have strong positive correlations with winning. I bet you assists have an even higher correlation with kills than damage does, and there's even a chance that they have higher correlation with winning than kills do. When good play is explicitly recognised and/or rewarded, everyone improves.

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