Wintersday Gift Values, 2017 Edition

With data from 28k gifts, I'm able to make some reasonable predictions about the value of opening Wintersday Gifts, including the new items. I've divided the post into the following parts:

tl;dr (this post) → Observations → Methodology → SourcesI'll continue updating if/when more data is published.

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tl;dr

It's more economically efficient to sell gifts on the TP and buy the things you need.

####### Initial Data

• Gifts are worth 5.2-6.1 silver on the TP.
• The average contents from 28k gifts are worth between 4.0-5.1s on the TP. Selling at 6.1 allows purchasing contents back at 5s average,.
• If you ignore the high-value, lucky drops, the 'typical' contents are worth only 2.5-3.2 silver.

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####### Update (1): added 50k

I've added another 50k gifts to my data, thanks to @"Ok I Did It.2854" for linking Truitchup's recent youtube. That brings the total to 78k, about the same as my 2016 sources.However, the conclusions remain the same. The market has changed some, so the big picture is now:

• Gifts are now valued at 5.3-5.5 silver, down a bit
• The contents (including rare drops) average to a value of 3.2-3.6s/gift
• Not counting rare drops, the value is about 2.75s/gift, i.e. only half.

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####### Update (2): added another 100ksutgon published data for another 100k gifts on reddit, bringing the total to 178k. Including market updates, the big picture is now:

• Gifts are selling at 5.2-5.9s
• The total contents are worth 3.4-4.1s (up from before, because the 100k includes several infusions)
• The value without including the super rare drops is 2.1-2.7s.

Additionally, Wanze (writing as rude_asura) published their summary of 50k results on reddit.

Observations

• About 40% of the overall value and 67% of the 'typical' value of gifts is from drinks.
• The average value of the gifts is extremely sensitive to getting an infusion.
• Since there were only 4 infusions that dropped out of 178k gifts, it's unlikely that you will be lucky enough to get average value.

Lucky Drops (out of 178k gifts)

• 4 infusions, 39 mischief sigils, 8 breathers, and only 24 enchanted boxes.
• 291 minis, with the rare ones being snowman, festive golem, and infinirarium
• The over 10g items are: Snow Diamond Infusion (550-640 gold), Winter's Heart Infusion (425g-500g), and Light of Dwayna Recipe (43-51g). Even the Sigil of Mischief isn't worth 10g

Common drops

• Alcohol still drops at a rate of 0.8/gift, same as last two years, but drinks are worth less than 2.5 2 silver this year (compared to 5-10 silver in other years).
• Snowflakes drop at about 0.67/gift this year. In previous years, they dropped at about 1.34 flakes/gift (using 10:1 for flawless).
• Food drops at a rate of about 0.12/gift evenly divided; in 2016, it was nearly the same (so 'identical' within normal probability variance).
• Utilities drop at about 0.04/gift, evenly divided; in 2016, it was nearly the same.
• Candy cane drops at about 0.27/gift; in 2016, it was at 0.26/gift. That's probably the 'same' within the limits of so little data.

Equivalent Value

The snow diamond infusion is worth 500-630 gold.

• That amount can be earned by selling off 13k gifts or 52 stacks.
• Based on the first 78k drops, the chance of you getting an infusion out of 25k gifts is 72%. The value (post taxes) 25k gifts is 1150 gold.

Or in words: you can sell 13k gifts to pay for the infusion or open nearly twice as many & still have a better than 1/4 chance of not getting even one infusion.

In other words:

• Sell off the gifts to buy the things you want.
• Only open the gifts for fun; the chances are low that you're going to get a drop so good it's worth the lost coin or the time spent dealing with the detritus.

Updated

• Currently updated to include 178k drops

Methodology

• I recorded drops from 2000 gifts of my own and found two sources on Reddit. One for another 1k and one from 25k.
• I collated the drops into a single table and divided total drops from total gifts to get a single estimated drop rate.
• Market data is taken from GW2Spidy.com, using that site's CSV API.
• Estimated value is determined the usual way: multiply the estimated drop rate by market value.
• TP fees are incuded when looking at how much you need to sell to buy something else, otherwise its gross market value before fees.
• 'Typical' drops exclude all high-value/low drop rate items, including sigils, infusions, and the special tonics. This year's data is sensitive to getting even one drop, but even that one drop isn't enough to make it worth opening.
• 2016 estimates are from over 70k of data published last year using the same methods.

The usual caveats apply: there are few non-common drops, so the estimated rates are less reliable than for common, particularly for super rate items such as infusions. Getting even one more (or one less) infusion would drastically affect the estimates.

Sources, 2017

2k personal

HastaKalistaBaby: 1k

marrioo: 25k

added:

added (2): Sutgon: 100k

Sources 2016

Colbymg: 40k

junglebaby1g: 11k

Dandamonium: 7.75k

Personal: 12k

See also:

@"Wanze.8410" (writing as rude_asura) summarized the results of the the 50k data

Nonsense people, instead buy wintersday gifts from the Trading Post and get the lucky infusion that sells for 700 gold.

I've updated the original post(s) to include data from an additional 150k gifts. The basic conclusion is the same:

It's financially more efficient to sell gifts and buy what you want/need (especially with custom offers)

Out of 178k total gifts, there were only four (4) infusions. There were only five (5) drops worth more than 10 gold, so you have to be extremely lucky for it to be worth your time to open the gifts.

Just saw your research and just want to thank you for your hard work.Thank you for contributing to this community.