Mystic Forge promotion broken?

[Gildana.8529]

I have flushed thousands of rares in the mystic toilet over the years and get about 1/5 or 1/6, on average, promoted to exotics. In the last week or so I have tried between 15 and 20 combines before I realized they all came back as rares. Is this just me?

[mtpelion.4562]

You've got a 1.15% chance of doing 20 combines in a row without a promotion.

Without a bigger data set it just sounds like a bad run.

[JustTrogdor.7892]

I've done more than that without an exotic. Normally it seems if I flush 4 rares of different weapon types I often end up with a rare underwater weapon even if the ones I flushed didn't include one. It seems the forge loves giving me those. :tongue:

Seems you just had some bad luck or maybe your luck ran out depending on how you want to look at it. :smile:

[Illconceived Was Na.9781]

15-20 isn't anywhere near enough tries to establish bad luck. I flushed a bunch of rare sigils/runes and got about 40% promoted recently (which made up for a bad streak of closer to 10%).

A while back, I had an interesting (to me) pair of streaks, forging masterwork for a chance of rares

• The first ~120 (30 attempts) yielded only 1 rare (expected: 6).
• Ran through ~32 more and ended up with 6 rares (expected 1.5)

The first streak looks awful (and it was); the second streak looks amazing (and it was). But combined, the net result was nearly exactly average.

We humans are great at spotting patterns; it's one of our survival traits. The problem is that true random behavior exhibits patterns over short periods of time; it's only in the long run that the patterns start to disappear.

tl;dr 15-20 isn't enough to establish that you even had absolutely horrid luck; your luck was just bad.

[Dewsitine.3645]

I think the mystic toilet should be at the same rate of getting an exotic before pof went live, but it could be that there might have been a change that was either intentional or not that could have be present after pof was launched and was not disclose in the update log.I think the only reasonable way to see if indeed the toilet has been tweaked would have to get the toilet equation for exotics before pof was launched and then get the equation now to compare both of them to see if there is any discrepancy in the new vs. old.It might be reasonable if anet did in fact change the equation for toilet exotics if the reason, in my opinion, is that getting rares have gotten easier to be obtained from the new maps than the old maps and HOT maps.

[Gildana.8529]

After 4 sets post-patch, I got an exotic. So, I will give the benefit of the doubt and say it is was just me.

[Illconceived Was Na.9781]

@Gildana.8529 said:I will give the benefit of the doubt

I hope it's clear that there shouldn't be any doubt. Even 0 of 25 tries has a nearly 0.4% chance of occurring and it's very likely that someone playing the forge is going to have luck that bad.