Black Lion Chest Uncommon Drop Rate — Guild Wars 2 Forums
Home Guild Wars 2 Discussion

Black Lion Chest Uncommon Drop Rate

I was thinking of trying my hand on Wrym's Breath Cape, but I'm not sure what my chances are at actually scoring it. Does anyone know the drop rate on Uncommon items?

Comments

  • The wiki has some information about the drop rates. For uncommon items it is about 7.3%.

  • IndigoSundown.5419IndigoSundown.5419 Member ✭✭✭✭
    edited August 1, 2020

    FWIW

    https://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Black_Lion_Chest/Drop_rate

    The sample size is sufficient to at least allow for a ball park idea.

    That shows an uncommon drop rate of just over 7%. However, if that chance occurs, the game will roll on an Uncommon table for you. Currently, there are 5 items on that table...

    https://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Black_Lion_Chest

    What I can't seem to find is whether there is a 20% chance for each of the 5, or whether some items are weighted heavier than others.

    caveat emptor: even if you find a chance of ~7% acceptable, be aware that the chance resets on each roll; there is no guarantee that if you open 100 chests, you will get 7 uncommon drops. You might get more, you might get loss... or none.

    Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it. -- Santayana

  • Yikes...

    Well thanks for the info everyone. I think imma withhold for now then.

  • Witch of Doom.5739Witch of Doom.5739 Member ✭✭✭✭

    Honestly, if that's the only thing you want in the BLC, try to wait until the item is either in the Gem Shop or at the Black Lion Chest Statuette vendor. Plus by the time it is in one of those spots, there may be something else you want more. Not to sound all woo woo, but if you don't go into opening BLCs with the mindset that you'll be content no matter what you get, there's a high chance you'll be disappointed.

  • @Witch of Doom.5739 said:
    Honestly, if that's the only thing you want in the BLC, try to wait until the item is either in the Gem Shop or at the Black Lion Chest Statuette vendor. Plus by the time it is in one of those spots, there may be something else you want more. Not to sound all woo woo, but if you don't go into opening BLCs with the mindset that you'll be content no matter what you get, there's a high chance you'll be disappointed.

    Oh? Do items like those actually show up elsewhere eventually like that?

  • I opened 100 chests. Got that ugly raptor and 0 sweet cloaks. I feel silly for falling to this rip-off trap again.
    As someone suggests, it's better (or cheaper) to wait until it's obtainable by other means.

  • Witch of Doom.5739Witch of Doom.5739 Member ✭✭✭✭

    @Archangel.1357 said:

    @Witch of Doom.5739 said:
    Honestly, if that's the only thing you want in the BLC, try to wait until the item is either in the Gem Shop or at the Black Lion Chest Statuette vendor. Plus by the time it is in one of those spots, there may be something else you want more. Not to sound all woo woo, but if you don't go into opening BLCs with the mindset that you'll be content no matter what you get, there's a high chance you'll be disappointed.

    Oh? Do items like those actually show up elsewhere eventually like that?

    Many do. If players keep requesting them here on the forums (see dedicated thread for GS requests), ANet often listens.

  • Mouse.7382Mouse.7382 Member ✭✭✭

    No idea the percentage...and my sample size is small; but evertyime I wanted a (exclusive mount/backpiece), it always dropped when I used the gold black lion key (Its the one you can buy when u aquire 50 of those statuette thingies.

  • Pifil.5193Pifil.5193 Member ✭✭✭✭

    @Erroi.3426 said:
    I opened 100 chests. Got that ugly raptor and 0 sweet cloaks. I feel silly for falling to this rip-off trap again.

    Yeah, I believe the saying is "fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me". :)

    I bought one set of 25 keys a loooooong time ago and realised that ArenaNet's definition of "uncommon" was drastically different from mine. Never again.

    As someone suggests, it's better (or cheaper) to wait until it's obtainable by other means.

    Yeah, I'm not sure if it'll be added to the Black Lion voucher system for the anniversary this year, but they probably will be by next year. https://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Black_Lion_Backpack_and_Glider_Voucher

  • I get the point where Belgium forbids purchasing of Black Lion Keys as it is recognised as a gambling activity. Which it clearly is.
    At least, transparency would be appreciated instead of vague "uncommon". Secretive "extremely rare" should be limited to Chak infusion drop rate.

  • Udolpho.1209Udolpho.1209 Member ✭✭✭

    There is almost zero chance that this will be added to the gemshop as an outright purchase.
    Backpack/gliders that are RNG from black lion chests don't get added to the vouchers either (just the ones you can buy outright for gems).

    It will at some point be available to purchase with statuettes... and the only way to get enough statuettes (60) is by using BL keys to open chests. So either way, the only way to get this item is to get keys and open chests. It comes down to if you want it badly enough to either dedicate to doing key farms weekly and/or buying keys.

  • Wolfb.7025Wolfb.7025 Member ✭✭✭

    For some reason I feel like the uncommon exclusive items have more chance than the rest uncommon weapon skins.

    Good thing is that these exclusive items are sold with 60 statuettes, but you'l have to wait like 4 or 6 months for that to happen.

    Years just pass like trains
    I wave but they don't sloow dooown~ don't slow doown~♪