Why are fractal dailies so unevenly distributed?

Why are fractal dailies so unevenly distributed?Like shattered observatorium 75 recommended is happening all the time despite you would think that there would be a 25 day rotation on recommendeds.On the opposite aquatic ruins feels like it it almost never happens.

I think this needs to be reworked so each fractal happens equally often.And while you are at it add a mote to the observatorium normal mode to disable all the time gated roleplay junk. It really gets on your nerves after having experienced it more than once. Fractals are not story instances.

Distribution as documented on the wiki and collated by Artemi SuedwindReddit Discussion

I suspect, without any proof, that the reason ANet hasn't changed the distribution is that they plan on mixing things up only as often as they need to, i.e. when introducing a new fractal. I think that's a shame, since I believe that they've said it's not that hard to adjust the rotation (having made some changes to the underlying code).

Analysis

There are only 18 different fractals for a 15-day rotation, with 45 slots for recommended and 45 for tiered rewards. If the rotation is randomized, it's inevitable that there will be major clumping, i.e. some fractals will appear more commonly than others.

As noted by Nebuli2:

Before everyone jumps to conclusions about this not being an even distribution, I decided to do a statistical test to see if this distribution was reasonable to expect, given random differences, if we assume that every fractal has an even chance to appear. Doing a chi-squared goodness-of-fit test yields a P-value of 0.997147, which means that [the] sample does not support the hypothesis that fractals are not evenly distributed. (emphasis added)

... [neither does this] prove that the distribution is even. (paster's note: it's not possible to prove that statistically; math can only achieve one of three results: prove it's uneven; prove the double negative: that it's extremely unlikely that it is unevenly distributed; or that the data isn't enough to determine which)

I agree with the OP that it's time to change the pattern. However, I don't want the distribution to be exactly even; I prefer it to be random (gets boring less quickly, for me).

My personal take is: I'd like to see ANet re-randomize the pattern more frequently in two ways:

• Re-randomize the 15-day pattern for Tiered fractals every six months, that's enough for 12 cycles.
• Re-randomize recs every three months, enough for 6 full cycles.
• Maintain the rule that recs can't be a repeat of the the tiered or of each other.

I don't want to play underwater fractal at all.

@"Kheldorn.5123" said:I don't want to play underwater fractal at all.

I definitely understand not liking the underwater combat atm. But I like the aquatic fractal because 95% of the time it's very fast and I can get the daily out the way with. Plus it's the only time I really get to use my ascended water gear heh. :)

@Illconceived Was Na.9781 said:I agree with the OP that it's time to change the pattern. However, I don't want the distribution to be exactly even; I prefer it to be random (gets boring less quickly, for me).

My personal take is: I'd like to see ANet re-randomize the pattern more frequently in two ways:

• Re-randomize the 15-day pattern for Tiered fractals every six months, that's enough for 12 cycles.
• Re-randomize recs every three months, enough for 6 full cycles.
• Maintain the rule that recs can't be a repeat of the the tiered or of each other.

Good suggestion. The one thing the annoys me most could be addressed with this, too: some fractal levels simply don't exist in the recommended range.

Anet should just hand craft the rotation instead of randomizing it after each fractal patch. For recommendeds all 25 levels of a tier should happen exactly once during a 25 day rotation. For the regular dailies it is a bit more tricky as long as the amount of different fractals cannot be divided by 3. But it should at least be somewhat balanced.