Steam release speculation

[Kayberz.5346]

I dont really have any source to point to for this speculation, its pretty much just a baseless theory  but its just something that makes sense the more i think about it.

 

I think Anet has delayed the steam release for a very specific reason, that reason? More money.

 

Im not an expert on how steam contracts work, but im fairly sure that steam takes a pretty sizable percentage of sales of any games, DLC, or micro transaction purchased through the steam client.

Think about this from a business standpoint. You are Anet with a new expansion in development, you already have a large customer base that have played your games and purchased expansions without being on steam for over a decade. You know that a large amount of your existing customers are going to purchase the new expansion,  as well as new comers curious to check it out.

So, with this in mind, if you are anet why would you shoot yourself in the foot and prematurely put your game up on steam and share the huge profits on the new expansions sales that you are pretty much guaranteed to get regardless of a steam partnership?

 

My prediction:

Anet is going to delay the steam release for at least half a year after the launch of the expansion so that they can independently profit on the sale of the new expansion. After some months have passed i think anet will then bundle HoT, PoF, and EoD into one single product and with that will come the steam release.

This allows Anet to maximize profits on the hype surrounding the new expansion release while also allowing for a second wave of sales when they launch on steam with a complete game bundle that will inevitably attract new players. They get full profit from their already dedicated playerbase and then can get the supplementary profits from steam exposure after their EoD marketing has died down

 

Its a win win

[The Boz.2038]

8 minutes ago, Kayberz.5346 said:

Im not an expert on how steam contracts work, but im fairly sure that steam takes a pretty sizable percentage of sales of any games, DLC, or micro transaction purchased through the steam client.

30%.

[The Boz.2038]

8 minutes ago, Kayberz.5346 said:

So, with this in mind, if you are anet why would you shoot yourself in the foot and prematurely put your game up on steam and share the huge profits on the new expansions sales that you are pretty much guaranteed to get regardless of a steam partnership?

Because Steam has umpteen times the reach as a discovery platform, and as a two decade active storefront has zero first-spend barriers.

[Kayberz.5346]

 

 

44 minutes ago, The Boz.2038 said:

Because Steam has umpteen times the reach as a discovery platform, and as a two decade active storefront has zero first-spend barriers.

Ok, sure

 

But anet already has a dedicated customerbase that will buy the new expansion and theres probably a decent amount of people that will buy it to check it out that dont already have the game and would likely buy it on steam if that were an option 

To maximize potential profits it makes more sense to delay the steam release until a few months after the new expansion hype to ensure anyone looking to buy the game is funneled directly to Arenanet rather thatn sharing those essentially guaranteed sales with a third party.

Once the hype has died down and marketing for EoD is all dried up they can then promote the steam release and then take advantage of steam as a discovery platform, but only after the sales from their own independent marketing has slowed down.

Its pretty safe to assume that Anet will at some point bundle all 3 expansions together at a single price point like they did with HoT and PoF. What better time would there be to announce such a bundle then having it coincide with the official steam release? 

People that discover the game on steam are just as likely if not more likely to buy the game as a full 3 expansion package as opposed to it being a new expansion with separate expansion addons listed on the steam store. It looks more attractive to potential new customers and it lets Anet reap the benefits of steam exposure without sharing their initial expansion sale profits

From a business perspective this just makes so much more sense to do it this way

Edited February 2, 2022 by Kayberz.5346

[Danikat.8537]

 

55 minutes ago, The Boz.2038 said:

Because Steam has umpteen times the reach as a discovery platform, and as a two decade active storefront has zero first-spend barriers.

I've seen a lot of developers on Twitter recently talking about the fact that Steam's value as a way for people to discover your game has gone down in recent years because there's so many games being added (and so many in total) that it's very hard to stand out.

Of course they're mainly talking about indie games (and to indie developers) who don't have the budget or publisher support for additional marketing, but I suspect there are similar considerations for bigger studios. If you have to put your game onto Steam and then do additional marketing to ensure potential players actually see it, or you can sell it through your existing channels and put that same marketing budget/effort behind it is it really worth doing the one where you're guaranteed a 30% reduction in profit from each sale?

I don't know the answer to that of course, I suspect it's a complicated thing to work out. But I don't think it's as simple as 'Steam = greater visibility = more sales' any more.

[Kayberz.5346]

1 hour ago, Danikat.8537 said:

 

I've seen a lot of developers on Twitter recently talking about the fact that Steam's value as a way for people to discover your game has gone down in recent years because there's so many games being added (and so many in total) that it's very hard to stand out.

Of course they're mainly talking about indie games (and to indie developers) who don't have the budget or publisher support for additional marketing, but I suspect there are similar considerations for bigger studios. If you have to put your game onto Steam and then do additional marketing to ensure potential players actually see it, or you can sell it through your existing channels and put that same marketing budget/effort behind it is it really worth doing the one where you're guaranteed a 30% reduction in profit from each sale?

I don't know the answer to that of course, I suspect it's a complicated thing to work out. But I don't think it's as simple as 'Steam = greater visibility = more sales' any more.

To add to that.

February is a BUSY month for game releases.

Why waste effort trying to compete with elden ring destiny 2. Ect. When you could just wait a few months and release on steam during a lul in game releases and have a much easier time getting exposure 

Releaseing on steam would purely be a marketing and exposure move. They are already marketing and getting decent exposure from the hype surrounding the launch of the new expansion, there is no need to try to push for even more exposure on steam and share that marketing hype profits when they are already getting their name out there

Once hype has died down they can then get a second wave of hype surrounding the steam launch months later which also helps pad the player population afterthe expansion tourists have stopped playing 

People have short attention spans, stretching out your marketing and exposure over a longer period of time is going to be more effective at getting the game shown to potential new customers than pushing for one big expansion+steam release hype train, especially when it coincides with games like Elden ring coming out which is sure to keep a large portion of the RPG enthusiasts busy for a few months and not looking to invest time in a new MMO right away

Edited February 2, 2022 by Kayberz.5346

[Shadowmoon.7986]

Vaporware is more likely. Posted on storefront to see how many wishlisted it, and got abandoned when number was too low.  Again totally speculation.