Nerfing supports + removal of target limits.

[RisenHowl.2419]

Assumptions I'm not seeing covered on your napkin:

-Individual players move with intention, they follow trends specific to each player. Some players are consistently ahead of the tag, some are consistently behind. It's always the same players. To test this you can check any logs for a night's run, if players behaved according to your model you'd see an even dispersion of damage resulting in very similar death/time ratios for every player. Instead you see that some players consistently have 3x the deaths of their peers over the course of months, or are always present at the top of the 'damage taken' list.

 

-There's a 1s invulnerability window when a player goes down. They're stationary in aoes for that 1s and subtract from offensive target caps. This could be further expanded into the number of players dodging at any given time or using other methods to become invulnerable. This can even include players who are stunned or immobilized, forcing them to take up target caps with consecutive hits, reducing the amount of dispersion occuring.

 

-Players move out of damage hot spots. They watch each other move out of aoes too since they can see each squad mate's health bars. Your model doesn't account for players actively avoiding damage rather than soaking it up with the target cap. If it were able to be abused like that the meta would be to stack everyone in a 180 radius spot and strafe back and forth while dumping defensive cooldowns. People don't do that because it doesn't work unless you greatly outnumber the number of players attacking you

 

-Damage isn't randomly assigned. It's by proximity and aimed by humans, who will not place their aoes for maximal dispersive effect like your model suggests. They attempt to coordinate their aoes in a single spot hoping to generate downs by overlapping their effects in as tight an area as possible.

[JusticeRetroHunter.7684]

1 hour ago, God.2708 said:

All you have to do is list the point at which it exponentializes based on player count. At the moment all it sounds like is you are increasing your vector size which is still linear. But given the nature of probability sample spaces to involve exponents I think I get what you're actually trying to say.

But trying to present it as a random probabilistic occurrence isn't a very accurate picture given combat is between two entities that are very much creatures of habit. Stochastic movement would quickly leave you alone when a group is attempting to push, for example.

 

Dispersal test results: positive. 

https://i.imgur.com/sHYMEXh.png

 

Couple things to mention before explaining the results. I forgot that in WvW you can't see unique names for dealing damage (only with healing do you get unique names) so instead of unique names, you will see ranks instead.

 

Even though we can't get the unique names, it shows the ranks of the players hit by this lava font...luckily there is a large enough variety of ranks to discern different targets. Anyway, this Lava Font's damage was distributed to at least 14 unique targets:

 

1  Silver Scout | Silver Scout | Silver Scout | Silver Scout
2  Mithril Invader | Mithril Invader
3  Legend
4  Gold Assaulter
5  Silver Major | Silver Major | Silver Major
6  Blackgate Beast
7  Silver Legend | Silver Legend
8  Diamond Veteran
9  Gold Recruit
10 Bronze Raider
11 Gold Squire
12 Silver Recruit
13 Gold Footman
14 Bronze General

 

This is the gif that shows the test...sorry for the sloppy gameplay, this is a pve group I joined, and the chances of actually surviving against the enemy zerg was close to nothing (you can still see half of the group attacking lord still, and nobody on tag) so I went, did my test and escaped before I dying, also wanted a clean screenshot of just the lava font, so no other skills getting used here to mess with the results.

 

https://i.gyazo.com/ce6de4542361e8c0cf4f88dab27534a9.mp4

 

 

Edited February 27, 2022 by JusticeRetroHunter.7684

[Strider Pj.2193]

Oh dear lord..  will the two of you take your lover’s quarrel to DMs already?

 

Get a (discord) room already…

[God.2708]

11 hours ago, Strider Pj.2193 said:

Oh dear lord..  will the two of you take your lover’s quarrel to DMs already?

 

Get a (discord) room already…

TO be fair it's better forum content than 90% of what gets posted. I'm sure they don't mind if we stare.

[RisenHowl.2419]

48 minutes ago, God.2708 said:

TO be fair it's better forum content than 90% of what gets posted. I'm sure they don't mind if we stare.

I'm all for it, I love it when people watch

[Strider Pj.2193]

1 hour ago, God.2708 said:

TO be fair it's better forum content than 90% of what gets posted. I'm sure they don't mind if we stare.

I man you are not wrong.  But when it’s a table tennis match between two egos, it hijacks the thread.  🤷

[JusticeRetroHunter.7684]

32 minutes ago, RisenHowl.2419 said:

I'm all for it, I love it when people watch

love when people watch you getting wiped by better players and being wrong you mean?

Edited February 27, 2022 by JusticeRetroHunter.7684

[RisenHowl.2419]

1 hour ago, JusticeRetroHunter.7684 said:

love when people watch you getting wiped by better players and being wrong you mean?

Idk man, I haven't seen any videos of you going 10v30 yet =/

[RisenHowl.2419]

30 minutes ago, JusticeRetroHunter.7684 said:

 

I don't think its occurred to you yet, that I'm not showing you anything. How you behave and given the drama you start with people...I am not putting any guild that I have played with out there for people like you to drama over. If someone else asks me, I will show them...you? No thanks.

 

Secondly, the above doesn't matter, you've already been beat...to bad you can't GvG your way out of being wrong.

you have no video then? that's unfortunate

 

I've posted in two threads this week, both times you jump in to bash me like you have little dog syndrome or something. I don't think the problem is on my end =/

[JusticeRetroHunter.7684]

8 minutes ago, RisenHowl.2419 said:

you have no video then? that's unfortunate

 

I've posted in two threads this week, both times you jump in to bash me like you have little dog syndrome or something. I don't think the problem is on my end =/

 

Lol is this some kind of psychological tactic your trying to pull for lack of anything better to do? Make it seem like I'm picking on you now?

 

How about saying something like this for once : 

 

"I was wrong about how the target system works, based on this information X Y Z, I'm gonna go run a  TEST A B C... since I own a guild and I have the resources to confirm results and have more data...maybe we can get a lot more specific information on how the system works, which will benefit everyone in the game." 

 

But nope you just can't help yourself...you actually can't stand someone else being right about something and I can tell, honestly who cares if you are wrong...accept that or not and move on...but you can't get over it... when someone you hate like me is right. You'll go so far as to refuse to believe it even when presented with hard facts (like video and image) that it's happening right there in you're face. You've done it before and you do it on every post you have responded to me with (where I show you evidence and you dismiss it as some non-sequitur)

 

Watch... your response to this comment will prove what I'm talking about. If it doesn't I'll be genuinely surprised.

[RisenHowl.2419]

4 hours ago, JusticeRetroHunter.7684 said:

 

Lol is this some kind of psychological tactic your trying to pull for lack of anything better to do? Make it seem like I'm picking on you now?

nah man, I'm just concerned for your health. You've had a hard on for me all week and I'm pretty sure you're supposed to see a doctor after like 12 hours?

4 hours ago, JusticeRetroHunter.7684 said:

How about saying something like this for once : 

 

"I was wrong about how the target system works, based on this information X Y Z, I'm gonna go run a  TEST A B C... since I own a guild and I have the resources to confirm results and have more data...maybe we can get a lot more specific information on how the system works, which will benefit everyone in the game." 

 

Maybe something's gotten lost in the sauce for you, your concept of how the targeting system works is flawed. You make wild assumptions about how players will fit your model but they're not confirmed in reality. This is a continuing trend I see in your posts, it's always some three page paper on a topic that assumes perfect conditions.

 

-Players don't spread their aoes for maximum dispersive effect like your model suggests, they concentrate them in a single area to minimize the dispersive effect. This is true for the other side of that coin too, players won't stand in aoes to help disperse the aoe's damage-they'll avoid the aoes entirely.

 

-Player movement isn't stochastic, they move with intention to complete a goal. Players follow trends, some are always a little ahead of the tag while others always lag behind. They certainly aren't spread perfectly equidistant from each other in any aoe. There isn't as likely a chance of a hit in one area as another, it's determined by how the players position themselves in response to both their group's movement and the opposing group's movements.

 

-If your model were true to reality, players would stack in a single spot to strafe left and right while dumping defensive cooldowns. They don't do that because it doesn't work for longer than a few seconds unless you greatly outnumber the enemy group. Damage is still very high in gw2, the issue is that there are less people around who know how to use it.

 

-I gave a whole summary on the last page for why removing target caps is asinine.

 

-I don't own a guild, I'm just an officer in a guild with access 50gb of evtc files. I'm well aware of how the target cap system works and how to use it to best effect. That's how we can fight outnumbered while you struggle along. https://imgur.com/bEvvfIh

 

4 hours ago, JusticeRetroHunter.7684 said:

But nope you just can't help yourself...you actually can't stand someone else being right about something and I can tell, honestly who cares if you are wrong...accept that or not and move on...but you can't get over it... when someone you hate like me is right. You'll go so far as to refuse to believe it even when presented with hard facts (like video and image) that it's happening right there in you're face. You've done it before and you do it on every post you have responded to me with (where I show you evidence and you dismiss it as some non-sequitur)

 

Watch... your response to this comment will prove what I'm talking about. If it doesn't I'll be genuinely surprised.

If I'm wrong it should be easy to prove. You put up a clip of how damage is dispersed with a pulsing aoe against targets that are running through it, which is great. Trying to generalize how one specific movement pattern disperses damage to every fight between every group is less than great, it's naive as kitten.

 

 

Here we have two outnumbered scenarios, in the first my group is half the size of a single enemy group. We don't spread our damage out among the 40 of them, we condense it in a single area to maximize the chances of landing lethal damage from multiple overlapping sources.

 

The enemy group is a loose blob, which should maximize the dispersive effect according to your model. Instead, the players move sequentially because they're all following a single leader- when the person in front of them moves they follow. The damage does not get dispersed evenly because players have goals that drive their movements. This allows a single pulsing aoe to hit the same target repeatedly rather than dispersing at all. This is not the behavior you would see consistent with a stochastic model.

 

The second clip is of our group fighting outnumbered against 3 smaller groups. This should be ideal for the three small groups standing right at their spawn because our group can only focus aoes on one location at a time, guaranteeing that 2/3rds of the enemy players are at no risk for damage. Ideal dispersion through having more players, right?

 

According to your model, no one should be able to fight while significantly outnumbered because the dispersion of damage is too great an advantage. Here's real world proof along with written logic on why your theory is bad, please don't pop a blood vessel.

[JusticeRetroHunter.7684]

22 minutes ago, RisenHowl.2419 said:

The enemy group is a loose blob, which should maximize the dispersive effect according to your model.

 

No that's incorrect, the looser the blob, the less dispersion there is. The tighter the blob, the more dispersion there is.

 

Quote

Maybe something's gotten lost in the sauce for you, your concept of how the targeting system works is flawed. You make wild assumptions about how players will fit your model but they're not confirmed in reality

 

I literally posted two reproducible tests that confirms that this is how the target system works. You've actually yet to show any tests at all. In fact, you've only posted pretty meaningless videos with no relevant information or data about the fight.

 

Quote

-If your model were true to reality, players would stack in a single spot to strafe left and right while dumping defensive cooldowns.

 

Evidence that shows that it is true to reality.

 

 

Edited February 28, 2022 by JusticeRetroHunter.7684

[JusticeRetroHunter.7684]

1 hour ago, RisenHowl.2419 said:

Instead, the players move sequentially because they're all following a single leader- when the person in front of them moves they follow. The damage does not get dispersed evenly because players have goals that drive their movements. This allows a single pulsing aoe to hit the same target repeatedly rather than dispersing at all. This is not the behavior you would see consistent with a stochastic model.

 

Here you are also incorrect. Dispersion still happens because your AOE's do not follow targets, they are targeted and remain on the ground where you placed them, and thus the relative distance from players to the center of that AOE is always changing, as players move across it.

 

https://i.imgur.com/hvI40Cw.png

 

An example of how an AOE that is pulsing is changing targets at each pulse based on proximity to their closest targets as a Zerg moves in a single direction.

 

https://i.gyazo.com/696ed51d0f8a2efa84a6a4ec62e4f46d.mp4

Here is a shot from your clip, which actually shows the exact situation above happening in real time. The first tick of damage effects 5 people moving...the second packet of damage hits a completly new set of 5 people, and again after that a new set of 5 people take the next packet of damage.

 

Edited February 28, 2022 by JusticeRetroHunter.7684

[RisenHowl.2419]

49 minutes ago, JusticeRetroHunter.7684 said:

 

No that's incorrect, the looser the blob, the less dispersion there is. The tighter the blob, the more dispersion there is.

if 5 players sit in an aoe they're each taking a hit per second. If they spread out so only 2 are being hit by the aoe we're seeing a 60% reduction in damage. The best way to disperse an aoe's damage is to just not stand in them. The second best way is to throw expendable bodies at the damage and hope to target cap enough of it. The dumbest way is to stack your players in one spot and hope the enemy group doesn't do enough damage to crack through.

49 minutes ago, JusticeRetroHunter.7684 said:

 

I literally posted two reproducible tests that confirms that this is how the target system works. You've actually yet to show any tests at all. In fact, you've only posted pretty meaningless videos with no relevant information or data about the fight.

You posted a 5s clip of how 10 people can walk through a lava font, then ignored every aspect of my posts that you don't have an easy answer to.

49 minutes ago, JusticeRetroHunter.7684 said:

 

Evidence that shows that it is true to reality.

 

 

that's a pretty lackluster opener on blue's part, they fake twice and walk directly into a bomb before even trying to be offensive. They don't try to land a coordinated hit until 1:00, please bring this to NA lol

 

16 minutes ago, JusticeRetroHunter.7684 said:

 

Here you are also incorrect. Dispersion still happens because your AOE's do not follow targets, they are targeted and remain on the ground where you placed them, and thus the relative distance from players to the center of that AOE is always changing, as players move across it.

And when they move across it in a straight line, or they're unable to move, or when there's only 5 potential targets in an aoe's radius? The aoe is ticking on the same person over and over, the damage is not dispersed.

16 minutes ago, JusticeRetroHunter.7684 said:

https://i.imgur.com/hvI40Cw.png

 

An example of how an AOE that is pulsing is changing targets at each pulse based on proximity to their closest targets as a Zerg moves in a single direction.

...and? that's obvious man. it also carries the assumption that players are always going to be moving across fields in straight lines, they don't. They see the person's health in front of them start getting chunked and move out of the way before walking into the aoe. You're assuming dps are going to place their damage in positions that are easily walked through too rather than the dps coordinating a spike when and where they can stop the enemy group from moving out of it.

[JusticeRetroHunter.7684]

3 minutes ago, RisenHowl.2419 said:

And when they move across it in a straight line, or they're unable to move, or when there's only 5 potential targets in an aoe's radius? The aoe is ticking on the same person over and over, the damage is not dispersed.

...and? that's obvious man. it also carries the assumption that players are always going to be moving across fields in straight lines, they don't. They see the person's health in front of them start getting chunked and move out of the way before walking into the aoe. You're assuming dps are going to place their damage in positions that are easily walked through too rather than the dps coordinating a spike when and where they can stop the enemy group from moving out of it.

 

https://i.gyazo.com/696ed51d0f8a2efa84a6a4ec62e4f46d.mp4

 

This is a shot from your clip, which actually shows the exact situation I described above . The first tick of damage effects 5 people moving...the second packet of damage hits a completely new set of 5 people, and again after that a new set of 5 people take the next packet of damage.

Edited February 28, 2022 by JusticeRetroHunter.7684

[RisenHowl.2419]

1 minute ago, JusticeRetroHunter.7684 said:

 

https://i.gyazo.com/696ed51d0f8a2efa84a6a4ec62e4f46d.mp4

 

This is a shot from your clip, which actually shows the exact situation I described above . The first tick of damage effects 5 people moving...the second packet of damage hits a completely new set of 5 people, and again after that a new set of 5 people take the next packet of damage.

And when you go 3s further into that clip you see 4 people hit by the same aoes repeatedly until they go down, because they try to walk through it in a straight line. Because they are not moving stochastically.

[JusticeRetroHunter.7684]

48 minutes ago, RisenHowl.2419 said:

And when you go 3s further into that clip you see 4 people hit by the same aoes repeatedly until they go down, because they try to walk through it in a straight line. Because they are not moving stochastically.

 

You don't seem to know or understand what stochastic actually means.

 

A stochastic process is anything that can be modeled as random distribution and approximated with a statistical solution. Take a handful of pennies and drop them into a river stream. The pennies are all going in the same general direction (down the stream) but where each penny is with relation to other pennies is considered randomly distributed. that random distribution can then be analyzed statistically to describe the behavior of the handful of pennies.

 

In a zerg, players do not move in perfect parallel lines to each other. They move with autonomy in general directions (like the pennies in a stream) their movement is thus a stochastic, random process that can be analyzed statistically.

 

So again...you are just incorrect in saying they "aren't" moving stochastically...wrong, they are ALWAYS moving stochastically because player movement is never linear. People are not robots. People move around in a way you can not perfectly predict.

 

The behavior of dispersion is a property of spells and their relation to player position at the interval of time at which those spells pulse, which is a random process that you can not predict, because you do not have full knowledge of player position to dictate future position of players.

 

I showed you, one of many times now, where your spells are clearly being dispersed, therefor the target system does IN FACT work this way. You can nitpick all you want about the PVE baddies you are fighting in T4, that barely know how to ball together, and without any useable data, but it's already been shown, that the target system works in the way I have described it. There is nothing left to argue about, accept that and move on to something constructive. The fact that you still deny that this is how it works is actually still amazing to me...

 

But like I said before...You can't stand when some else is right, and when you are wrong. Who was I kidding to think you would change tune.

 

 

Edited February 28, 2022 by JusticeRetroHunter.7684

[RisenHowl.2419]

9 hours ago, JusticeRetroHunter.7684 said:

 

You don't seem to know or understand what stochastic actually means.

 

A stochastic process is anything that can be modeled as random distribution and approximated with a statistical solution. Take a handful of pennies and drop them into a river stream. The pennies are all going in the same general direction (down the stream) but where each penny is with relation to other pennies is considered randomly distributed. that random distribution can then be analyzed statistically to describe the behavior of the handful of pennies.

That's the thing, you're trying to apply a stochastic model to living players who follow trends. It's not random movement, it's purposeful.

 

In a stochastic model the players would have an equal chance of moving in any direction at random intervals, making it impossible to determine where any players will be within an aoe's radius. Okay, great. That'd lead to diffusion of damage across each player moving within an aoe because at any point any 5 of them are going to take damage dependent on who is closest to the center of the aoe.

 

You think it leads to dispersed damage across the entire group but it doesn't because the players involved aren't randomly distributed. Some of them are going to stand in the back, some stand in the front, some stop moving, some are stopped from moving. Your base assumption is that people are moving randomly, which is wrong, which is why your further assumptions past that point are also wrong.

 

You're trying to apply a static model to a complex organic system and then passing it off as the obvious answer. Pennies floating down a stream can't decide to ignore gravity by swimming upwards, they have no individual goals which they're trying to attain, there's no intention in their movement pattern which makes them harder to predict.

9 hours ago, JusticeRetroHunter.7684 said:

In a zerg, players do not move in perfect parallel lines to each other. They move with autonomy in general directions (like the pennies in a stream) their movement is thus a stochastic, random process that can be analyzed statistically.

Players are more likely to move in parallel lines than not as you can see in the videos. Players to the left of the tag tend to stay on the left while they move, players on the right of the tag do likewise. That's why you see them moving sequentially instead of amorphously.

 

Also wtf at the pennies in a stream moving with autonomy, do pennies have some secret method of locomotion I'm unfamiliar with? I'm pretty sure inanimate objects lack autonomy while animate objects possess it. That's a terrible false equivalency.

 

A better comparison would be flocking birds and how they follow simple rules to produce complex group behaviors. That'd be a model worth looking at because it better reflects the nature of the problem as opposed to trying to shoehorn a complex organic model into a static mathematical model.

9 hours ago, JusticeRetroHunter.7684 said:

So again...you are just incorrect in saying they "aren't" moving stochastically...wrong, they are ALWAYS moving stochastically because player movement is never linear. People are not robots. People move around in a way you can not perfectly predict.

You can watch them move in straight lines, it's right there in video. You're right, people aren't robots. There's better ways to predict their movements than claiming 'it's all random', it's not. Their movements are goal driven, they follow simple rules, and the combination of the two produces complex behavior.

9 hours ago, JusticeRetroHunter.7684 said:

The behavior of dispersion is a property of spells and their relation to player position at the interval of time at which those spells pulse, which is a random process that you can not predict, because you do not have full knowledge of player position to dictate future position of players.

And yet people are able to land their aoes in such a fashion that they regularly drop 5 people at a time with them. They do it every day across every server. They do it despite lag from high ping, despite having no knowledge of complex systems, despite aiming their aoes independently of any model.

 

How on earth are they predicting random movements with such high precision? I'll let you in on a secret, it's because player movement isn't random. It's predicted by trends, if you know the trends you know where to place your aoes for best effect.

9 hours ago, JusticeRetroHunter.7684 said:

I showed you, one of many times now, where your spells are clearly being dispersed, therefor the target system does IN FACT work this way. You can nitpick all you want about the PVE baddies you are fighting in T4, that barely know how to ball together, and without any useable data, but it's already been shown, that the target system works in the way I have described it. There is nothing left to argue about, accept that and move on to something constructive. The fact that you still deny that this is how it works is actually still amazing to me...

I don't think anyone's arguing with you on the basics.

 

-aoes have a target cap

-players above the target cap in that aoe take no damage

-players are selected for damage in accordance to their proximity to the center of the aoe

 

Your model on how that damage is distributed across a zerg though is wrong, it's based on a false assumption which is why it's not seen functioning in game outside of very specific situations (large number of players stacking tightly in one spot with very little incoming spike damage).

 

Even in the clip you posted 3/4 of the people weren't moving at all, they were standing still and using inconsistencies in the enemy aoe placement to soak the damage. That's just relying on the other group to place the centers of their aoes far enough apart that they select different targets. You can see 3-4 people taking all the damage and getting healed or ressed through it because they're not moving randomly, they're sitting in the aoes.

 

[JusticeRetroHunter.7684]

23 hours ago, RisenHowl.2419 said:

That's the thing, you're trying to apply a stochastic model to living players who follow trends. It's not random movement, it's purposeful.

 

In a stochastic model the players would have an equal chance of moving in any direction at random intervals, making it impossible to determine where any players will be within an aoe's radius. Okay, great. That'd lead to diffusion of damage across each player moving within an aoe because at any point any 5 of them are going to take damage dependent on who is closest to the center of the aoe.

 

You think it leads to dispersed damage across the entire group but it doesn't because the players involved aren't randomly distributed. Some of them are going to stand in the back, some stand in the front, some stop moving, some are stopped from moving. Your base assumption is that people are moving randomly, which is wrong, which is why your further assumptions past that point are also wrong.

 

You're trying to apply a static model to a complex organic system and then passing it off as the obvious answer. Pennies floating down a stream can't decide to ignore gravity by swimming upwards, they have no individual goals which they're trying to attain, there's no intention in their movement pattern which makes them harder to predict.

Players are more likely to move in parallel lines than not as you can see in the videos. Players to the left of the tag tend to stay on the left while they move, players on the right of the tag do likewise. That's why you see them moving sequentially instead of amorphously.

 

Also wtf at the pennies in a stream moving with autonomy, do pennies have some secret method of locomotion I'm unfamiliar with? I'm pretty sure inanimate objects lack autonomy while animate objects possess it. That's a terrible false equivalency.

 

 

You are talking to someone who literally studies gw2 as a complex system, and talks about it in every comment I've ever made on this forum for 3+ years, And, Like I am saying politely... that you don't fully understand the thing that you are talking about.

 

For example, if I move left, and you move left, we are both moving left...but I am not moving directly parallel to you I am moving in "my version" of left, and you are moving in "your version of left." even though we both follow this idea of "left" it is not the exact same. Thus the path we take to the end point is random based on our different initial and end conditions.

 

In a zerg, the commander is what people follow...but not everybody has the same initial condition. You might be to the left of the commander, I might be to the right. Therefor I am moving left (toward the commander), and you are moving right (toward the commander), Because the commander is never at a definite end position, the path between all initial conditions to the end condition are always changing, and therefor determining the different locations and paths of individuals is stochastic.

 

Honestly you are doing an okay job talking about complex systems, because birds are the ideal way to think about players in a zerg (in fact this is exactly how I first thought about it many years ago when i first looked at the similarity between the movement of a flock of birds and a zerg) ...but you are being completely out of pocket dismissing how stochasticity and randomness work in relation to this topic. Randomness is integral to why systems are complex to begin with.

 

This is also why you don't understand the pennies in the stream example either... no, the pennies are not autonomous, they follow a deterministic set of rules. The movement of each penny relative to one another is determined by their initial conditions, which is a different set of initial conditions than the other pennies, leading to different paths taken as they head down the stream. Birds are the same, they all have different initial conditions, have some idea of where to go generally, and they will each take their own path to where they need to go, and these differences in paths that they take are random because their initial conditions are different.

 

Quote

A better comparison would be flocking birds and how they follow simple rules to produce complex group behaviors. That'd be a model worth looking at because it better reflects the nature of the problem as opposed to trying to shoehorn a complex organic model into a static mathematical model.

If you look at the Wikipedia link for stochastic behavior, many complex biological systems are described as a stochastic process including the model of paths for birds as they flock around. The link is a published research paper by Heppner from 1990, one of many, that literally states that you can model a flock of birds realistically with a stochastic process: Excerpt from this paper:

 

Heppner, Grenander - A Stochastic Non Linear Model for Coordinated Bird Flocks

Certain small birds such as pigeons, starlings and shore birds fly in coordinated flocks that display strong synchronization in turning, initiation of flight and landing. Experimental efforts to find leaders in such flocks have to date failed. We propose that synchronization of movement may be a byproduct of "rules" by movement followed by each bird in the flock. Accordingly we have developed a computer simulated bird flock employing stochastic differential equations which demonstrates realistic flocking behavior. 

Edited March 1, 2022 by JusticeRetroHunter.7684

[subversiontwo.7501]

On 2/28/2022 at 3:26 AM, JusticeRetroHunter.7684 said:

Evidence that shows that it is true to reality.

 

 

On 2/28/2022 at 4:34 AM, RisenHowl.2419 said:

that's a pretty lackluster opener on blue's part, they fake twice and walk directly into a bomb before even trying to be offensive. They don't try to land a coordinated hit until 1:00, please bring this to NA lol

You guys realize that video is a meme right? a joke, a parody.

There were clips from the chinese server where guilds were trying to stack like that, so people had fun with it. It didn't get actually played, for good reason 😂. I think I may be in the video myself.

Edited March 2, 2022 by subversiontwo.7501

[JusticeRetroHunter.7684]

  

2 hours ago, Jarwan.8263 said:

bump. i ain't letting this topic die until it gets kittening fixed.

 

The topic is dead because I've already proven that you are correct with hard evidence and tests (even a research paper). But you see that doesn't matter if people refuse to believe it. You can even tell by some of the reactions, that people would rather believe in nonsense than ACTUAL real information showing how damage dispersion occurs, which favors larger groups over smaller ones, caused by the existence of target caps.

 

I've been kicked out guilds, and I've left guilds over arguments like this...because there are people controlling the game with misinformation, telling you what to run and what to play based on information that is not true. It always makes me cringe inside when I run with guilds that literally can't understand why they are wiping over and over to some groups...and realize that it's because they lack an actual understanding of the deep mechanics in the game.

 

People say you can't stand around and face tank an enemy Bomb...this is not true. The Chinese client has figured this stuff out already years and years ago (because they are smart), and NA and EU still seem to not understand why the Chinese meta is this way. @subversiontwo.7501 it is no meme.

 

 

 

Another somewhat separate but related topic. Dodging. Most people don't understand that when your group is all dodging a bomb at the same time, it means your healers are dodging it too...so when players are immobilized or stunned (the ones who can't dodge) they are caught in the bomb with NO support since nobody is healing them (because they are busy dodging). I've been in groups where commanders get salty at people because "guys you gotta dodge when I say dodge" as if people don't hear the commander say dodge over and over again...its because you can't DODGE when you are immobilized and most of the classes don't bring cleanses or sunbreaks for themselves...they are coming from scrappers that cleanse them and if THEY are too busy dodging then guess what? You're gonna die in that bomb. I mean it just makes me facepalm so hard when i see commanders complaining about "just dodge the bomb" is the most short sighted view of guild fighting and zerging. course it's not just commanders its players that don't get the stuff either so they don't know any better. I actually do the opposite of commander when he says dodge...i just use my cleanses instead (as a scrapper) because i know that is more important for players who don't have cleanse to survive the bomb.

[God.2708]

2 hours ago, JusticeRetroHunter.7684 said:

which favors larger groups over smaller ones, caused by the existence of target caps.

No, The issue with all your parading about is that this is the brunt of your claim but you throw around jargon because you barely understand what point you are trying to make.

The claim is that target caps -AND TARGET CAPS SPECIFICALLY- give a DISPROPORTIONATE advantage to larger groups. That's an incredibly difficult thing to prove because larger groups have an innate advantage anyway, because they are larger. You have failed magnificently at explaining how larger groups get advantages from target caps in a way that doesn't have to do with the myriad of other things being bigger also advantages them with.

The closest you have come is your explanation of damage -> 0 as dispersion goes to infinity. But that is promptly ignore able by the fact that dispersion is irrelevant as damage synchronization goes to infinity. If everyone casts their AoEs in the exact same spot your dispersion is meaningless.

Like, all this obnoxious prancying about has really said could have just been stated as: Larger groups have a larger total damage volume and larger HP pool. If damage is not concentrated this larger HP pool means the threshold for incoming damage will sink below the heal per second threshold of the party. Changing target caps doesn't help this at all beyond shooting the damage volume through the kitten roof to the point of absurdity. Why fiddle with target caps when you can just give every class a skill with a 10.0 power mod and achieve the same effect?

Edited March 3, 2022 by God.2708

[JusticeRetroHunter.7684]

38 minutes ago, God.2708 said:

No, The issue with all your parading about is that this is the brunt of your claim but you throw around jargon because you barely understand what point you are trying to make.

The claim is that target caps -AND TARGET CAPS SPECIFICALLY- give a DISPROPORTIONATE advantage to larger groups. That's an incredibly difficult thing to prove because larger groups have an innate advantage anyway, because they are larger. You have failed magnificently at explaining how larger groups get advantages from target caps in a way that doesn't have to do with the myriad of other things being bigger also advantages them with.

The closest you have come is your explanation of damage -> 0 as dispersion goes to infinity. But that is promptly ignore able by the fact that dispersion is irrelevant as damage synchronization goes to infinity. If everyone casts their AoEs in the exact same spot your dispersion is meaningless.

Like, all this obnoxious prancying about has really said could have just been stated as: Larger groups have a larger total damage volume and larger HP pool. If damage is not concentrated this larger HP pool means the threshold for incoming damage will sink below the heal per second threshold of the party. Changing target caps doesn't help this at all beyond shooting the damage volume through the kitten roof to the point of absurdity. Why fiddle with target caps when you can just give every class a skill with a 10.0 power mod and achieve the same effect?

it’s a simple math proof…especially when taken to infinity.

 

if you have a group of infinite size in a finite area, and you use a spell that targets a finite number of them (5)…you will hit 5 people. Use the spell again and you can ask what the probability is that you will hit the same people again….at infinity the answer is 0 probability.

 

because the target system is based on proximity, the players have to be moving with relation to each other in order to not get hit again by a spell being placed in the exact same spot. The threshold for how much players have to move is given by the equation on the previous page…at infinity the answer asymptotically approaches 0 units per second per player.

 

That is a definitive hard proof that target cap is alone, corollary to sustain.

 

In other words if you had infinite players, using no skills at all, you would be unkillable because enemy attacks will never hit you more than once.

Edited March 3, 2022 by JusticeRetroHunter.7684

[God.2708]

1 hour ago, JusticeRetroHunter.7684 said:

In other words if you had infinite players, using no skills at all, you would be unkillable because enemy attacks will never hit you more than once.

This is exactly what I'm talking about. You're acting like everyone else can't understand your argument but you can't even make a complete argument.

I get if one person is casting AoEs and your group is dancing all over the place no one takes a lot of damage.

What happens if 50 people are casting AoEs? What happens if they are really good at casting AoEs? What happens if they are multiboxers who cast their AoEs at the exact same time in the exact same spot? Does dispersion do anything when the target cap is 5 in that instance? No it's totally irrelevant because everyone who gets 'hit' dies. The only thing movement does is results in more people getting downed.

You've thrown out absolutely every single lever in this situation to look at one single particular case. What if more AoEs are cast? What if the AoEs are infinitely small? What if the AoEs perfectly overlap? What if the AoEs only need to hit once to kill? And that's setting aside obvious environment impact of conditions IE. What if players force movement? or What if players drastically reduce movement speed of all enemies? (Though this one actually can have its effects somewhat understood by your earlier formulas)

Yes if one AoE targets those nearest to center and you change what's near the center frequently enough odds are different things get hit. Trivial Case. Next.

[JusticeRetroHunter.7684]

1 hour ago, God.2708 said:

I get if one person is casting AoEs and your group is dancing all over the place no one takes a lot of damage.

What happens if 50 people are casting AoEs? What happens if they are really good at casting AoEs? What happens if they are multiboxers who cast their AoEs at the exact same time in the exact same spot? Does dispersion do anything when the target cap is 5 in that instance? No it's totally irrelevant because everyone who gets 'hit' dies. The only thing movement does is results in more people getting downed.

You've thrown out absolutely every single lever in this situation to look at one single particular case. What if more AoEs are cast? What if the AoEs are infinitely small? What if the AoEs perfectly overlap? What if the AoEs only need to hit once to kill? And that's setting aside obvious environment impact of conditions IE. What if players force movement? or What if players drastically reduce movement speed of all enemies? (Though this one actually can have its effects somewhat understood by your earlier formulas)

Yes if one AoE targets those nearest to center and you change what's near the center frequently enough odds are different things get hit. Trivial Case. Next.

 

I literally did that exact calculation on the previous page.

 

In a group of 40 people, huddled in a 360 radius (the radius of the spell), the distance individual players have to move before dispersion starts to happen is 7 units. unbuffed forward player movement is 210 units per second, therefor a spike from an opposing group has to occur within a time of .034 seconds to avoid dispersion.

 

Quote

What if the AoEs are infinitely small?

 

This is probably the most meaningless question you've ever asked... but the question still has an interesting answer so I'll answer it.

 

An infinitely small AOE will not hit anything. Spells will hit the nearest target within it's radius. For example, if the size of your AOE reticule is 1 unit, and if there is no players inside that 1 unit, the spell will not hit anything. So as the area drops to infinitely small, the chances a player will actually be inside that area also drops to 0...meaning you won't hit anything. If there are an infinite number of players, they also have to be infinitely dense before "hitting something"... however the chances it hits something  asymptotically approaches 0 from negative infinity (since there are an infinite number of players). Normalizing a negative probability means it will always have 0 chance of hitting anything, whether it's 0 players or infinite players. 

 

 

Quote

What happens if they are multiboxers who cast their AoEs at the exact same time in the exact same spot?

 

Like said before and many times now....If players land their attacks within a time frame that is shorter than the time it takes for dispersion to occur, which is based on the movement of players relative to each other, then the target system will hit the same people. In the example from the first paragraph, if 5 multiboxers use their abilities within a .034 second window, then the target system will select the same targets for their abilities, again because NO PLAYER has crossed any other player within that time frame, for the target system to decide that any new players will be the next closest player to the AOE's proximity to the center. 

 

 

Quote

What if the AoEs only need to hit once to kill?

 

Now you are asking a decent question. If you do an attack that does say, 20,000 damage in a single packet, you are able to kill that person because the damage the skill does is not associated with dispersal of packets of damage. Dispersal matters when we talk about PACKETS of damage, and how different packets are dispersed among groups of people because of how the target system selects targets...therefor optimal strategy suggests doing the highest amount of damage possible per packet of damage, as a means of avoiding dispersion.

 

 

Quote

What if players drastically reduce movement speed of all enemies? (Though this one actually can have its effects somewhat understood by your earlier formulas)

 

Somewhat understood? Lol No it's trivially obvious. Dispersion drops as speed of players drops...because dispersion is related to player movement and position relative to one another. To repeat again... if you are standing completely still and you place an aoe in the same spot, the target system will select the same people over and over and over again and no dispersion occurs. You can go and TEST that on the SPVP golems.

 

 

Edited March 3, 2022 by JusticeRetroHunter.7684