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MM - everything allright or maybe not, pls help


kito.1827

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hi all!

this is not to be a QQi just wanna know if this is intended or a "normal" situation i experienced. so tell me if you experienced more or less the same at some point.https://ibb.co/n8nOeU

gw084.jpg

i never had similar successive blowout matches - yes some loss-streaks here and there but at least some close matches inbetween whom still were fun to play.but this is just over discouraging - i feel like i wanna throw my whole pc out of the window. i never felt like this before, ever.

also i know i am low tier, but everytime i played league i have been around the same mmr and still never ever experienced something similar.yesterday i kind of overperformed but there were losses inbetween and i dont feel like it is deserved to get such a loosing streak afterwords.

what do you think?

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Back in time, if my team ( silver/plat 1) could read my tactics and map drawings, i'd never end up losing by more than 80 pts difference, so to me the lose streak/win streak was a myth.

That being said, this has changed a bit since PoF, because all builds are too OP. To be frank, it's fairly common to see the whole team wiped in 5 seconds to scourges holos and mirages. Thus, it's easy to have players giving up quickly, or even ragequitting, making the match turn into a 500-50.

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@Trevor Boyer.6524 said:That's just how the algorithm is. I'm not gonna go into UBER detail right now, but essentially you're gonna go on a 10 lose streak and then turn around and go on a 10 win streak. The game is like that with how glicko works.

What? That's new to me. Can you elaborate? Neither on GW2's website about the algorithm nor on the Glicko website or wikipedia I found anything about enforcing win or loss streaks... and as far as I know, it was officially said too and this is just bad luck.

@OP: I have never experienced anything like this, in either direction. Don't get too angry, just stop playing when you lost the second game in a row - being angry only makes it more difficult and maybe you are more relaxed and confident at some other time. :smile: Sometimes you just are kind of distracted by anything, don't worry too much, you will have more luck on some other day!

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@Megametzler.5729 said:

@Trevor Boyer.6524 said:That's just how the algorithm is. I'm not gonna go into UBER detail right now, but essentially you're gonna go on a 10 lose streak and then turn around and go on a 10 win streak. The game is like that with how glicko works.

What? That's new to me. Can you elaborate? Neither on GW2's website about the algorithm nor on the Glicko website or wikipedia I found anything about enforcing win or loss streaks... and as far as I know, it was officially said too and this is just bad luck.

That's not how GW2 pvp match making works, he doesn't know what he's talking about.

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i wasn't getting angry.at least not too much :expressionless:i am wondering how it helps if i stop playing? as if it matters how much time passes inbetween matches for your next MM position, i hardly believe it's like that.

just getting so much consecutive blowouts against me feels odd and rather unfair.but okay, if the algorithm works like this at least i am prepared now

thx for your non-toxic answers <3 i was prepared for the worst :P

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@kito.1827 said:i wasn't getting angry.at least not too much :expressionless:i am wondering how it helps if i stop playing? as if it matters how much time passes inbetween matches for your next MM position, i hardly believe it's like that.

just getting so much consecutive blowouts against me feels odd and rather unfair.but okay, if the algorithm works like this at least i am prepared now

thx for your non-toxic answers <3 i was prepared for the worst :P

I meant... just take a break when you start feeling upset. That's what I learnt, I just get more frustrated, play worse and worse... so now I just stop playing when I feel getting frustrated. :smile:

And it is not how the MM works (until I get convinced otherwise). It is just bad luck, you said it yourself, you were a bit luckier the day before. Stuff like that happens.

Take care and enjoy the day and the game!

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@Megametzler.5729 said:

@Trevor Boyer.6524 said:That's just how the algorithm is. I'm not gonna go into UBER detail right now, but essentially you're gonna go on a 10 lose streak and then turn around and go on a 10 win streak. The game is like that with how glicko works.

What? That's new to me. Can you elaborate? Neither on GW2's website about the algorithm nor on the Glicko website or wikipedia I found anything about enforcing win or loss streaks... and as far as I know, it was officially said too and this is just bad luck.

@OP: I have never experienced anything like this, in either direction. Don't get too angry, just stop playing when you lost the second game in a row - being angry only makes it more difficult and maybe you are more relaxed and confident at some other time. :smile: Sometimes you just are kind of distracted by anything, don't worry too much, you will have more luck on some other day!

When you're on a win streak and outperforming your current MMR "which is separate from rating" it begins putting you against higher MMR opponents, to give you a chance to increase your MMR. This is typically when lose streaks begin to occur.

When you're on a lose streak and your MMR is underperforming as normal, it begins putting you against lower MMR opponents, to give the lower MMR opponents a chance to climb, to raise their MMR. This is typically when you begin to get easy wins.

Win or lose streaks in this fashion usually last on average of 10 games. Just play hard and try to fight through it when it gives you a lose streak. That's the only way to preserve your current MMR/Rating and then climb higher once a lose streak ends.

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@Trevor Boyer.6524 said:

@Trevor Boyer.6524 said:That's just how the algorithm is. I'm not gonna go into UBER detail right now, but essentially you're gonna go on a 10 lose streak and then turn around and go on a 10 win streak. The game is like that with how glicko works.

What? That's new to me. Can you elaborate? Neither on GW2's website about the algorithm nor on the Glicko website or wikipedia I found anything about enforcing win or loss streaks... and as far as I know, it was officially said too and this is just bad luck.

@OP: I have never experienced anything like this, in either direction. Don't get too angry, just stop playing when you lost the second game in a row - being angry only makes it more difficult and maybe you are more relaxed and confident at some other time. :smile: Sometimes you just are kind of distracted by anything, don't worry too much, you will have more luck on some other day!

When you're on a win streak and outperforming your current MMR "which is separate from rating" it begins putting you against higher MMR opponents, to give you a chance to increase your MMR. This is typically when lose streaks begin to occur.

When you're on a lose streak and your MMR is underperforming as normal, it begins putting you against lower MMR opponents, to give the lower MMR opponents a chance to climb, to raise their MMR. This is typically when you begin to get easy wins.

Win or lose streaks in this fashion usually last on average of 10 games. Just play hard and try to fight through it when it gives you a lose streak. That's the only way to preserve your current MMR/Rating and then climb higher once a lose streak ends.

I am not sure if we are talking about something different, but I will go a bit more into detail anyways. It might be interesting for some people, even though I am no expert on the topic and would still like to be corrected. :smile:

First: Glicko-2 uses an estimate of your "real" rating, including standard deviations, to predict the outcome of the game and the effect of a win or a loss on this estimated rating.

The matchmaker for teams a) looks for people in your estimated rating range from Glicko above - which increases over waiting time - and b) scores each player against the others using rating, rank, games played, party size, profession, and dishonor. Also duplicate professions is avoided in b).Sidenote: When more people play one class, the waiting time for them can actually increase because of this. If you want quicker matches, play a less played class. :wink:

Of course there can be statistical outliers, when your rating estimate is too high due to some lucky matches - that's what the OP experienced. After overperforming, he was rated "too high" and got in matches he was expected not to lose, but on the other hand, he was rated too high - resulting in several matches where he was estimated to be a "too good player". This is random though, in a perfect simulation the win ratio when you are at your "real" rating would be 50%. Neither system enforces any kind of streak and I - for example - never had a win or a losing streak longer than 5 games. It highly depends on your class played, your personal concentration and - of course - luck on a small scale over a large number of games.

I can only recommend to read https://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/PvP_Matchmaking_Algorithm#Matchmaking and it's basis glicko.net/glicko/glicko2.pdf. Unfortunately Anet has not adjusted the system to decrease volatility, which would be possible with Glicko-2. If anyone reads through the text above, check "rating deviation threshold" in the general Glicko system glicko.net/glicko/glicko.pdf. In GW2 this threshold seems to be implemented with a limit being too high, which is why everybody's rating has a ± of 30-50 around your "real" rating.

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@Megametzler.5729 said:

@Trevor Boyer.6524 said:That's just how the algorithm is. I'm not gonna go into UBER detail right now, but essentially you're gonna go on a 10 lose streak and then turn around and go on a 10 win streak. The game is like that with how glicko works.

What? That's new to me. Can you elaborate? Neither on GW2's website about the algorithm nor on the Glicko website or wikipedia I found anything about enforcing win or loss streaks... and as far as I know, it was officially said too and this is just bad luck.

@OP: I have never experienced anything like this, in either direction. Don't get too angry, just stop playing when you lost the second game in a row - being angry only makes it more difficult and maybe you are more relaxed and confident at some other time. :smile: Sometimes you just are kind of distracted by anything, don't worry too much, you will have more luck on some other day!

When you're on a win streak and outperforming your current MMR "which is separate from rating" it begins putting you against higher MMR opponents, to give you a chance to increase your MMR. This is typically when lose streaks begin to occur.

When you're on a lose streak and your MMR is underperforming as normal, it begins putting you against lower MMR opponents, to give the lower MMR opponents a chance to climb, to raise their MMR. This is typically when you begin to get easy wins.

Win or lose streaks in this fashion usually last on average of 10 games. Just play hard and try to fight through it when it gives you a lose streak. That's the only way to preserve your current MMR/Rating and then climb higher once a lose streak ends.

I am not sure if we are talking about something different, but I will go a bit more into detail anyways. It might be interesting for some people, even though I am no expert on the topic and would still like to be corrected. :smile:

First: Glicko-2 uses an estimate of your "real" rating, including standard deviations, to predict the outcome of the game and the effect of a win or a loss on this estimated rating.

The matchmaker for teams a) looks for people in your estimated rating range from Glicko above - which increases over waiting time - and b) scores each player against the others using rating, rank, games played, party size, profession, and dishonor. Also duplicate professions is avoided in b).Sidenote: When more people play one class, the waiting time for them can actually increase because of this. If you want quicker matches, play a less played class. :wink:

Of course there can be statistical outliers, when your rating estimate is too high due to some lucky matches - that's what the OP experienced. After overperforming, he was rated "too high" and got in matches he was expected not to lose, but on the other hand, he was rated too high - resulting in several matches where he was estimated to be a "too good player". This is random though, in a perfect simulation the win ratio when you are at your "real" rating would be 50%. Neither system enforces any kind of streak and I - for example - never had a win or a losing streak longer than 5 games. It highly depends on your class played, your personal concentration and - of course - luck on a small scale over a large number of games.

I can only recommend to read
and it's basis
. Unfortunately Anet has not adjusted the system to decrease volatility, which would be possible with Glicko-2. If anyone reads through the text above, check "rating deviation threshold" in the general Glicko system
. In GW2 this threshold seems to be implemented with a limit being too high, which is why everybody's rating has a ± of 30-50 around your "real" rating.

What I explained was once explained to me in an old thread by the programmer who worked on the algorithm at the time "not sure if it's even the same guy nowadays". I was going to post the link to his better explanation of what I tried to explained but I can't seem to access the old GW2 forum threads. When I click the link addresses it's telling me that they cannot be found.

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@Trevor Boyer.6524 said:

@Trevor Boyer.6524 said:That's just how the algorithm is. I'm not gonna go into UBER detail right now, but essentially you're gonna go on a 10 lose streak and then turn around and go on a 10 win streak. The game is like that with how glicko works.

What? That's new to me. Can you elaborate? Neither on GW2's website about the algorithm nor on the Glicko website or wikipedia I found anything about enforcing win or loss streaks... and as far as I know, it was officially said too and this is just bad luck.

@OP: I have never experienced anything like this, in either direction. Don't get too angry, just stop playing when you lost the second game in a row - being angry only makes it more difficult and maybe you are more relaxed and confident at some other time. :smile: Sometimes you just are kind of distracted by anything, don't worry too much, you will have more luck on some other day!

When you're on a win streak and outperforming your current MMR "which is separate from rating" it begins putting you against higher MMR opponents, to give you a chance to increase your MMR. This is typically when lose streaks begin to occur.

When you're on a lose streak and your MMR is underperforming as normal, it begins putting you against lower MMR opponents, to give the lower MMR opponents a chance to climb, to raise their MMR. This is typically when you begin to get easy wins.

Win or lose streaks in this fashion usually last on average of 10 games. Just play hard and try to fight through it when it gives you a lose streak. That's the only way to preserve your current MMR/Rating and then climb higher once a lose streak ends.

I am not sure if we are talking about something different, but I will go a bit more into detail anyways. It might be interesting for some people, even though I am no expert on the topic and would still like to be corrected. :smile:

First: Glicko-2 uses an estimate of your "real" rating, including standard deviations, to predict the outcome of the game and the effect of a win or a loss on this estimated rating.

The matchmaker for teams a) looks for people in your estimated rating range from Glicko above - which increases over waiting time - and b) scores each player against the others using rating, rank, games played, party size, profession, and dishonor. Also duplicate professions is avoided in b).Sidenote: When more people play one class, the waiting time for them can actually increase because of this. If you want quicker matches, play a less played class. :wink:

Of course there can be statistical outliers, when your rating estimate is too high due to some lucky matches - that's what the OP experienced. After overperforming, he was rated "too high" and got in matches he was expected not to lose, but on the other hand, he was rated too high - resulting in several matches where he was estimated to be a "too good player". This is random though, in a perfect simulation the win ratio when you are at your "real" rating would be 50%. Neither system enforces any kind of streak and I - for example - never had a win or a losing streak longer than 5 games. It highly depends on your class played, your personal concentration and - of course - luck on a small scale over a large number of games.

I can only recommend to read
and it's basis
. Unfortunately Anet has not adjusted the system to decrease volatility, which would be possible with Glicko-2. If anyone reads through the text above, check "rating deviation threshold" in the general Glicko system
. In GW2 this threshold seems to be implemented with a limit being too high, which is why everybody's rating has a ± of 30-50 around your "real" rating.

What I explained was once explained to me in an old thread by the programmer who worked on the algorithm at the time "not sure if it's even the same guy nowadays". I was going to post the link to his better explanation of what I tried to explained but I can't seem to access the old GW2 forum threads. When I click the link addresses it's telling me that they cannot be found.

Yeah, some of the old forums does not seem to be accessible anymore. :tongue: Maybe it used to be like that? Today nothing shows in the matchmaker - Glicko does not use this anyway -, but maybe it once was included in the second part of the algorithm? Ben said several times, there is no enforced win/loss streak (anymore).

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