Need more clarity around 60% success rate in DE meta

[Killthehealersffs.8940]

10 hours ago, Wielder Of Magic.3950 said:

I do not wish to exclude anyone, what I DO wish for,  is people finally getting the basics of this game down after so many years. 

Anet has tried to teach these things many times and in many different ways and encounters over the years. 

Perhaps not in the best possible way, but they tried.

And they can help them ,  to learn the more core mechanic .

When casual whine about the dps requirements (stuck on 20% , not enought time) , and not for the 1-hit KO mechanic , then speedrunners should avoid giving  any further "help"

Edited April 25, 2022 by Killthehealersffs.8940

[yann.1946]

1 hour ago, Astralporing.1957 said:

Well, more info certainly would not hurt after they made that first statement that can be spun whichever way anyone might want. That way at least we'd have had some context to it.

In short: sure, it's easy to badly implement statistics, but it's much easier to do so the more incomplete the data is. The more info you have, the more likely is for others to realize you're interpreting things wrong.

Ideally yes, you have more hope for people then i have though.

1 hour ago, Astralporing.1957 said:

That one information is not statistics. It's just enough info to sow disinformation, nothing more.

Its not just a lack of info though. As an example, people seem to confuse the 60 succesrate of metas with a 60 percent WR of players, but that is not nessecarily the case as different people will lickely have different WR based on how they behave, who they know and group with etc.

 

More precisely on of the things that varies in the succesrate of the metas is the players doing it, whill your personal succesrate has on less variable (namely you are always the person doing it.)

 

Specificly, people called a person with  a 22 succes streak lucky, which is a little weird because the more lickely situation is that that person did something different that gave them acces to bigger WR.

 

 

[yann.1946]

1 hour ago, Gorem.8104 said:

 

Actually, saying 60% completion rate actually shows that the majority are not completing it outside of stacked groups and good RNG. As someone said before, would you trust a doctor that has a 40% chance to fail the operation and you don't make it? 

That is a really bad comparison, impressivly so.

A) You cant retry not dieing on the operating table,

B) Depending on the operation that 60 percent can be good it depends on the context.

C) you have no idea whether dead shards get counted for example.

1 hour ago, Gorem.8104 said:

Its a number that literally means most of the player base can't do this fight unless carried. 

Not at all, there is not enough info to conclude anything of the sort.

 

 

 

As a question, do you consider one failure a problem?

[Malus.2184]

3 hours ago, yann.1946 said:

Honestly, i was trying to let it go for my own mental health, but math is one of these things i am pasionate about so i cant really.

 

I'll repeat, what do you think is the case study here. And what do you think you can conclude from it. 

 

This way there can be no confusion over what you meant and nothing got lost in the chain of comments.

The statement, "I'm passionate about math." And having no idea of what a 'case study' are two different things. I'm passionate about space travel and I've know only the rudimentary about astro physics, unlike you I never make statements to someone educated in astro physics what astro physics are.

And you're the one saying that I implied confusion in what I said. I implied ignorance on what a 'case study' is.

[Malus.2184]

14 hours ago, Wielder Of Magic.3950 said:

I really hope Dragon's End is will be the standard for Open World events from here on out. 

No, the idea of DE is good, the actual execution is way too random in nature with several events that the player has no control over.

Quote

DE has the following formula = E(X) + E(X) + (Ta*Y) + (Bi*Z) = - (time)-sec of DPS) + P = B =A (success)

Using your example, and since you said nothing about the number of tails or bites I'll set those to zero, I'll set your performance to 7000 DPS without Boons, and for sake of ease I'll put you all as condi DPS, the formula is E(30)+E(30)+E(30) + (7000 (+25%)(+50%) = 12.250 = 12.250 (+90-sec+30% DPS) = 13.444,375 ~13.444,38 benchmark.

I'll now repeat the formula with the same conditions save for some as I experienced on the last run I ever had and with the same P as in the previous calculation. E(5)+E(5) + 7000 (+25%)(+50%) = 12.250 (+10-sec +30% DPS) = 12.381,1081111 ~ 12.381,1 benchmark.

If the benchmark needed for A (success) was 13.000 then the conditions you had, using the exact same performance number, would always result in A (success) and mine would always result in A (failure).

Your expression that" all is fine, just get better,", is objectively wrong. You've had 22 successs in a row? That's still within the statistical given as the understanding of how random events in a statistics played out is that you can have 60 success followed by 40 failures and you would still fall within the statistical given.

.

 

[yann.1946]

1 hour ago, Malus.2184 said:

The statement, "I'm passionate about math." And having no idea of what a 'case study' are two different things.

Me asking you to clarify what you mean with case study is not the same thing as me not having an idea what a case study is.

It is me trying to actually have a conversation about it.

1 hour ago, Malus.2184 said:

I'm passionate about space travel and I've know only the rudimentary about astro physics, unlike you I never make statements to someone educated in astro physics what astro physics are.

Funnily enough, you are doing exactly that at this moment. But my eduction atm is not really something i want to use to validate any of my arguments here. 

1 hour ago, Malus.2184 said:

And you're the one saying that I implied confusion in what I said. I implied ignorance on what a 'case study' is.

If you think im ignorant, explain which of your things you talked you consider as a case study and what you think that showed you.

I am asking you because everything you bring up these concepts you use them wrong and then when i try to correct that misuse you suddenly pretend im misusing it.

As an example: You said in the beginning of this long thread that the average player in this meta is lickely the majority because the average and mean are lickely close in this case. 

 

To this i responded with the clarification that "you should use modus instead of average." Now i should have used the word mode instead of modus because i fell into my native tongue.

 

To his you responded that "mean an mode" are different concepts, which is obviously true, that was the whole reason i said you should have used mode instead of mean.

 

 

At this point, i really have no clue whether my writing is that unclear that i am writing completely ununderstandable sentences or you are obtuse. So in any hope to actually get a conversation going, which of the two things you said do you consider a case study and what do you think you can coclude from it. 

 

 

[Malus.2184]

2 minutes ago, IAmNotMatthew.1058 said:

It's the fact that DE is not mindless.

People are fine with content that they have to engage in as content is an activity. This is explained in the theory of the Zone of Proximal Development. What they have an issue with are activities that have events that are outside of their control since they find that frustrating. And I've shown in the below that there are a lot of factors in DE that the player has no control over.

Eventually DE will stabilize and you'll only have players attempting it who feel they can succeed despite the mechanics pulling a fast one on them.

Quote

DE has the following formula = E(X) + E(X) + (Ta*Y) + (Bi*Z) = - (time)-sec of DPS) + P = B =A (success)

Using your example, and since you said nothing about the number of tails or bites I'll set those to zero, I'll set your performance to 7000 DPS without Boons, and for sake of ease I'll put you all as condi DPS, the formula is E(30)+E(30)+E(30) + (7000 (+25%)(+50%) = 12.250 = 12.250 (+90-sec+30% DPS) = 13.444,375 ~13.444,38 benchmark.

I'll now repeat the formula with the same conditions save for some as I experienced on the last run I ever had and with the same P as in the previous calculation. E(5)+E(5) + 7000 (+25%)(+50%) = 12.250 (+10-sec +30% DPS) = 12.381,1081111 ~ 12.381,1 benchmark.

If the benchmark needed for A (success) was 13.000 then the conditions you had, using the exact same performance number, would always result in A (success) and mine would always result in A (failure).

Your expression that" all is fine, just get better,", is objectively wrong. You've had 22 successs in a row? That's still within the statistical given as the understanding of how random events in a statistics played out is that you can have 60 success followed by 40 failures and you would still fall within the statistical given.

 

[Malus.2184]

5 minutes ago, yann.1946 said:

Me asking you to clarify what you mean with case study is not the same thing as me not having an idea what a case study is.

It is me trying to actually have a conversation about it.

If you tried to have aconversation about it you would define what you think a case study is. Until then you just make statements intended to make me go away. Deliver an actual argument. If you know what a case study is then define it so it can be seen in what you think I'm mistaken about the nature of case studies. I would be surprised if you do though as that would force you to be clear instead of making vague statements that can mean whatever you want them to mean.

Edited April 25, 2022 by Malus.2184

[Killthehealersffs.8940]

10 hours ago, IAmNotMatthew.1058 said:

It's perfectly fine having one meta that requires more than 2 braincells firing at the same time.

Dragonfall takes ~2 hours, AB is almost 2 hours, Drizzlewood is some time over an hour. It's not the duration people have problem with. It's the fact that DE is not mindless.

I actually hope Anet gets into the habit of making OW content that's hard enough that you can't watch Netflix on a second monitor while auto attacking enemies.  

I hope Anet don't create more content like Raids , where they are carried by 2x healers + 1 person who actual doing the work , and the rest must increase their dps or get kicked

[yann.1946]

24 minutes ago, Malus.2184 said:

If you tried to have aconversation about it you would define what you think a case study is.

You do realise this makes no sense when im the one asking you to do that?

Quote

Until then you just make statements intended to make me go away.

Absolutely, me asking to explain yourself is to make you go away.

Quote

Deliver an actual argument. If you know what a case study is then define it so it can be seen in what you think I'm mistaken about the nature of case studies.

At this moment i still dont know which one of the statements you consider a case study and what you think you can derive from it.

Quote

I would be surprised if you do though as that would force you to be clear instead of making vague statements that can mean whatever you want them to mean.

Fine, to the person not defining what they consider a case study,

A case study is a form of research where you take a specific example or a specific set of examples to derive some properties from and try to deduce what caused these properties. (f.e. when trying to figure out what makes serial murders tick we could talk to a specific one to see what makes that on thick and go in depth on that person)

 

Most of the time this gets done to either

A) find  hypothesiss people want to test.

B) make some statement when we have little data or not being able to etchicaly gather data. 

C) Because it makes a better story if you want to convince people.

 

Most forms of case studies are retrospective studies, but they can also be prospective.

Edited April 25, 2022 by yann.1946
fixed a spelling error

[Malus.2184]

9 minutes ago, yann.1946 said:

You do realise this makes no sense when im the one asking you to do that?

I've already defined what a case study is, I think it was to you even. A case study is when you take a real case and then makes it ideal for what the case study is meant to show. I'll repeat it since you seem to have missed it. I'll also elaborate on it.

A squad with the exact same composition and performance that repeats the activity ten  times will most likely never happen. So, you make a case out of one and then extrapolate on that and make an ideal situation where the squad maintains the exact same composition over ten tries and have the exact same performance.

And as my later equation shows

Quote

DE has the following formula = E(X) + E(X) + (Ta*Y) + (Bi*Z) = - (time)-sec of DPS) + P = B =A (success)

Using your example, and since you said nothing about the number of tails or bites I'll set those to zero, I'll set your performance to 7000 DPS without Boons, and for sake of ease I'll put you all as condi DPS, the formula is E(30)+E(30)+E(30) + (7000 (+25%)(+50%) = 12.250 = 12.250 (+90-sec+30% DPS) = 13.444,375 ~13.444,38 benchmark.

I'll now repeat the formula with the same conditions save for some as I experienced on the last run I ever had and with the same P as in the previous calculation. E(5)+E(5) + 7000 (+25%)(+50%) = 12.250 (+10-sec +30% DPS) = 12.381,1081111 ~ 12.381,1 benchmark.

If the benchmark needed for A (success) was 13.000 then the conditions you had, using the exact same performance number, would always result in A (success) and mine would always result in A (failure).

Your expression that" all is fine, just get better,", is objectively wrong. You've had 22 successs in a row? That's still within the statistical given as the understanding of how random events in a statistics played out is that you can have 60 success followed by 40 failures and you would still fall within the statistical given.

If they have the exact same composition and performance over ten attempts they can succesd some and fail some. This is something that statistically makes no sense since if they have the performance to beat their success rate sould be as close to 100% as possible.

Now you tell what you think a case study is.

Edited April 25, 2022 by Malus.2184

[yann.1946]

2 minutes ago, Malus.2184 said:

Now you tell what you think a case study is.

In case you missed it

 

A case study is a form of research where you take a specific example or a specific set of examples to derive some properties from and try to deduce what caused these properties. (f.e. when trying to figure out what makes serial murders tick we could talk to a specific one to see what makes that on thick and go in depth on that person)

 

Most of the time this gets done to either

A) find  hypothesiss people want to test.

B) make some statement when we have little data or not being able to etchicaly gather data. 

C) Because it makes a better story if you want to convince people.

 

Most forms of case studies are retrospective studies, but they can also be prospective.

2 minutes ago, Malus.2184 said:

I've already defined what a case study is, I think it was to you even. A case study is when you take a real case and then makes it ideal for what the case study is meant to show.

I understand, why you might be confused. 

You dont just "make" an real case ideal. 

2 minutes ago, Malus.2184 said:

I'll repeat it since you seem to have missed it. I'll also elaborate on it.

A squad with the exact same composition and performance that repeats the activity ten  times will most likely never happen. So, you make a case out of one and then extrapolate on that and make an ideal situation where the squad maintains the exact same composition over ten tries and have the exact same performance.

you can only use that to discuss things which dont depend on the composition. (In this case you could not use the 60 percent number but could discuss how there are RNG components independent of players action.)

 

This is not a case study though, there is no reall case here. This is more a thoughtexperiment.

2 minutes ago, Malus.2184 said:

And as my later equation shows

If they have the exact same composition and performance over ten attempts they can succesd some and fail some.

Possibly yes, 

2 minutes ago, Malus.2184 said:

This is something that statistically makes no sense since if they have the performance to beat their success rate sould be as close to 100% as possible.

And this part is wrong. There is no inherent reason why the same performance should always lead to the same result. Almost no game functions like that. The gap in performance where it maters is sometimes really small, but lots of very famous and good games have inherent forms of RNG (Any boardgame with dice, allmost all cardgames etc.) 

 

And at this moment we dont actually know how big this gap where RNG is lickely to screw performance over is.

 

[IAmNotMatthew.1058]

43 minutes ago, Killthehealersffs.8940 said:

I hope Anet don't create more content like Raids , where they are carried by 2x healers + 1 person who actual doing the work , and the rest must increase their dps or get kicked

When you are trying to look like you know anything about Raids without knowing anything about Raids. Stick to Drizzlewood, thank you. 

Well, they actually aren't creating any more content like Raids, unless you are one of those people who consider the DE meta "a Raid".

[yann.1946]

4 minutes ago, IAmNotMatthew.1058 said:

When you are trying to look like you know anything about Raids without knowing anything about Raids. Stick to Drizzlewood, thank you. 

Well, they actually aren't creating any more content like Raids, unless you are one of those people who consider the DE meta "a Raid".

Well they are creating strike CM's. 🙂

[IAmNotMatthew.1058]

Just now, yann.1946 said:

Well they are creating strike CM's. 🙂

And Aether CM is still below Raid level. Maybe HT CM will reach Raid level.

[Killthehealersffs.8940]

10 hours ago, IAmNotMatthew.1058 said:

When you are trying to look like you know anything about Raids without knowing anything about Raids. Stick to Drizzlewood, thank you. 

Well, they actually aren't creating any more content like Raids, unless you are one of those people who consider the DE meta "a Raid".

Let me guess you are the 1 among the 7 that focus in dps right ?

As long as people are doing dps , that's their the "more than 2 braincells " part ?

 

Edited April 25, 2022 by Killthehealersffs.8940

[yann.1946]

1 minute ago, IAmNotMatthew.1058 said:

And Aether CM is still below Raid level. Maybe HT CM will reach Raid level.

That i absolutely disagree with. It lies pretty comfortable in the middle of present raids in regards to difficulty and the mechanics are decently involved.

[IAmNotMatthew.1058]

1 minute ago, Killthehealersffs.8940 said:

Let me guess you are the 1 among the 7 that focus in dps right ?

As long as people are doing dps , that's their the "more than 2 braincells " part ?

Much WoW !

I'm almost exclusively healing and tanking in Raids, so 99% of the times my job isn't dealing damage. 
You are either considering having more than 7k DPS in DE the same as being a DPS in Raids or you are confused over how to respond. On that note, considering you think that Raids are 2 healers and 8 DPS tells everyone how much you know about Raids. 

[Killthehealersffs.8940]

10 hours ago, IAmNotMatthew.1058 said:

I'm almost exclusively healing and tanking in Raids, so 99% of the times my job isn't dealing damage. 
You are either considering having more than 7k DPS in DE the same as being a DPS in Raids or you are confused over how to respond. On that note, considering you think that Raids are 2 healers and 8 DPS tells everyone how much you know about Raids. 

Oh a fellow healer  !

Now.. plz do tell, where the part that people needing to do 7k , automatically don't  have ""more than 2 braincells ".

Because the majority are doing the1-hit  mechanics of the DE just fine , but fail at the HPspong at 20%

Edited April 25, 2022 by Killthehealersffs.8940

[IAmNotMatthew.1058]

1 minute ago, Killthehealersffs.8940 said:

Oh a fellow healer  !

Now.. plz do tell, where the part that people needing to do 7k , automatically don't  have ""more than 2 braincells ".

Because the majority are doing the1-hit  mechanics of the DE just fine , but fail at the HPspong

Go back and re-read what I wrote.
I said that people moan about DE being "hard/raid difficulty" because they can't just watch Netflix on a second screen while auto attacking everything to death and I would like more metas in the game that require more than 2 braincells firing at the same time. 

[Killthehealersffs.8940]

10 hours ago, IAmNotMatthew.1058 said:

Go back and re-read what I wrote.
I said that people moan about DE being "hard/raid difficulty" because they can't just watch Netflix on a second screen while auto attacking everything to death and I would like more metas in the game that require more than 2 braincells firing at the same time. 

People moaned for the 20% hpSpong , not they died multiply times for mechanics

People that played Raids 20 years and got stuck in there , should not make jokes that "if he can't make 7k , he doesn't use his other brain cell".

 

Not from a fellow healer , that we babysit  other people

 

Edited April 25, 2022 by Killthehealersffs.8940

[IAmNotMatthew.1058]

2 minutes ago, Killthehealersffs.8940 said:

People moaned for the 20% hpSpong , not they died multiply times for mechanics

People that played Raids 20 years and got stuck in there , should not make jokes that "if he can't make 7k , he doesn't use his other brain cell".

 

Not from a fellow healer , that we babysit  other people

 

Where did I say anything about mechanics in the meta? xD Mate, read my comments, please, not just respond as soon as you see me writing something.
How is "People complain they can't steamroll DE" the same as "people complain about mechanics"?

If you can't reach 7k DPS with the 25% from the map boosts, whatever food you are provided and from the Jade Bot boosts I have bad news.

[Killthehealersffs.8940]

10 hours ago, IAmNotMatthew.1058 said:

Where did I say anything about mechanics in the meta? xD Mate, read my comments, please, not just respond as soon as you see me writing something.
How is "People complain they can't steamroll DE" the same as "people complain about mechanics"?

If you can't reach 7k DPS with the 25% from the map boosts, whatever food you are provided and from the Jade Bot boosts I have bad news.

Which people ? The majority of the casuals where whining that they didnt have enough time and got stuck to 20% .

The raiders , like yourself where saying to them "gut gud or the the company should not make an 1-hit afk area".

You want then to improve , so you have more raids , and you are not helping them to adress the real problem , which is the HPspong and not the mechanics .

Maybe raiders , should avoid with interfering with the casuals ? Or don't ever talk for behalf of us to the Devs...

Edited April 25, 2022 by Killthehealersffs.8940

[IAmNotMatthew.1058]

5 minutes ago, Killthehealersffs.8940 said:

Which people ? The majority of the casuals where whining that they didnt have enough time and got stuck to 20% .

The raiders , like yourself where saying to them "gut gud or the the company should not make an 1-hit afk area".

Considering Hs had runs with Untameds and Minion Reapers/Scourges finishing the meta without problems.. yeah, "git gud" applies.

7 minutes ago, Killthehealersffs.8940 said:

You want then to improve , so you have more raids , and you are not helping them to adress the real problem , which is the HPspong and not the mechanics .

The real problem is not "HP sponge", when I could reach 12k DPS on my Weaver running a mixture of whatever gear(zerk, cele, some rabid) I could find on the meta it is not the boss' health, it's how much damage people deal. You see all these LI builds that involve one or two buttons while being above 20k DPS so not being able to deal that amount of damage is not an excuse.

9 minutes ago, Killthehealersffs.8940 said:

Maybe raider , should avoid with interfering with the casuals ? Or don't ever talk for us ...

ahahahahah

[Killthehealersffs.8940]

10 hours ago, IAmNotMatthew.1058 said:

Considering Hs had runs with Untameds and Minion Reapers/Scourges finishing the meta without problems.. yeah, "git gud" applies.

The real problem is not "HP sponge", when I could reach 12k DPS on my Weaver running a mixture of whatever gear(zerk, cele, some rabid) I could find on the meta it is not the boss' health, it's how much damage people deal. You see all these LI builds that involve one or two buttons while being above 20k DPS so not being able to deal that amount of damage is not an excuse.

ahahahahah

Simple as that , you should not speak about the casuals , if you cannot find the problems , which is not the Core-Events-Mechanics .

If we want to increase our dps or interact with you , we know where to find you