What's with glitched weapon drop rate?

[Luthan.5236]

I have played full runs almost since start of the festival. (Only first 1-2 days not.) And I got 8 skins unlocked now. 3 more leftovers (waiting for good time to sell at TP) which I got twice. So ... 11 so far.

The drop rate in general is pretty weird. That randomness ha ha. Since playing SAB back then in 2012/13 (and now 2020 again, did not play the last few years) I never got some normal blue skins as drops. Yesterday 2 chests and today 1 (and I played only 2 of 6 zones of my daily run so far).

[cosmos.9285]

I am at 96 chests opened and have received 3 weapons, Had to open 65 chests to get the 1st one.

[Lesser.6495]

I really wish the box at the vendor wouldn't cost 10g and 257 bubbles (which is a play with the glitched aspect though). Especially when several weapons on the TP don't even cost 10g. It would have been much better if the costs would be like 2g 5s 7c and 35 to 50 bubbles, my personal opinion.By the way: I continued to open 3 chests per day since my former post but I got no weapon.

[Runiir.6425]

@ParadoX.3124 said:If you have more than 10 000 hours of playing, you have 1% chance, if you just started the game, you have 90%. It seems to be the way like precursor drop.

.> I feel a lot luckier int he precursor drop department.My Girl and I have been playing since Beta. She's never seen a precursor drop. I got the precursor for Frostfang, The Juggernaut, The Predator...which I kept and made. I also got the precursor for The Bifrost and gave it to her. I have the one for The Moot in my bank, still deciding if I will make it or not.I never bought any of them, I got most of them to drop from the dragon events.Jormag - Frostfang and The JuggernautShatterer - The BifrostTeq - The MootWvW from a player kill loot bag - The Predator (got this one to drop as a Deadeye no less, it was a sign I had to have it)

Random is random. I don't have more luck than others or MF...most of the time I don't even run food so no MF bonus there either heh. This was my luck, others get lucky in other ways.

[Guest]

Ok, so since I believe today is the final day for SAB, here's my cumulative glitched weapon drops and analysis:

• I ended up at 11 drops out of 105 glitched chests opened, for a 10.47619% drop rate. Pretty good considering that huge drought I had to start.
• It's unclear from my personal attempts whether the mode makes any difference, since I opened almost all of the chests in Normal mode. I can say that I never got any drops from Infantile mode (though others reported getting them at decent rates), nor did I get any drops from Trib mode (0/6, so an admittedly small sample size)
• Of the 11 drops, many of them were repeats: 3x shield, 2x dagger, 2x sword. I didn't get any of the top-6 priced skins to drop. This suggests (but in no way proves) that there is a weighted drop rate within the weapon set, with some deliberately more common and others rarer. Could also just be coincidence.
• You can see from my daily records that a lot of my drops were clustered at 2 times - a 1-2 set, then 1-0-3. Again, certainly just randomness in action but interesting to me. Makes you feel unlucky to go days and days without a drop, and then a little superstitious when you get something like that 3/3 day. :p

Anyway, 105 is still a pretty small sample size, and my numbers would have looked very different without some of those lucky days so we'd have to aggregate a lot more people's results to say for sure. My opinion is that it's an overall rate of 5-10% with a weighted distribution among the weapons. Anyone else have final observations?

[regilyor.3152]

After opening 168 chests, I had 16 glitched weapon drops. I've been assuming a 10% drop rate, if just to keep my spirits up when I got unlucky days with nothing, and it seems to have worked out about right for me.

I can't comment on the different difficulties since I only did 3 on infantile and only 1 trib.

I was actually surprised how few duplicates I ended up with. I wasn't expecting to get as far with the collection as I did. In the end, my duplicates were 2x hammer, 1x longbow, 1x greatsword, 1x focus. So I didn't personally see any weighting in drop rates.

Now it's time to wait until next year to try and finish the collection since I am too cheap to buy off the trading post and the vendor price of 10g isn't any better.

Goodbye SAB!

[Etria.3642]

After I bought all those priced at less then 10g on the tp NATURALLY those were the ones that then dropped for me. I gave the extras that she didn't have to my daughter, holding onto the others but final tally was 14 weapons dropped, doing 4-6 glitches daily, missed one day, didn't do any.

Here's one of those odd superstitions though. USUALLY it was just myself and one daughter, sometimes with friends. Our luck was horrible. BUT when we had a certain friend along, that is when we got most of our drops. Not all friends, just that one. And it affected not just me, but him and my daughter too. I know, I know, just rng, but weird rng. Like, we went 0/6 4 days straight, but if we had him along, ALL of us got AT LEAST one drop. Some chests all 3 of us got the drop. Yesterday I was, how about we wait for X, and do the dailies then...and when he logged on, sure enough. We each got a drop. Not a large enough sample size but dang, I am half-tempted to haul him to a couple infusion bosses.

[Luthan.5236]

I think I did 160 chests - all in normal mode. (All days 6 chests except 2nd day where I did only 4 and the first day none.) 14 drops. 10 unique. 3 I got twice and one I got a third time. I still save those since the prices seem to have increased in the last few days. I plan to sell them midway to the next festival. (Some time late this year checking the prices again.)

Then next year farming the remaining ones or maybe buying (will be cheaper then I guess once more people have unlocked and the market gets more supply). I will do less runs once I have completed the collection ... since prices might drop ... even outside the event. (Blue skins show that they are cheap now and more expensive years ago.)

The drop rate of 10 percent seems true to me. Some got a bit lower. Some a bit more.

[DAN.7314]

My final tally was 9 glitched weapons out of roughly 120 chests.

[Manasa Devi.7958]

My total tally is 17, 10 different ones, 7 repeats. Not counting the one from the achievement reward chest. Weirdly, I only got a single other weapon box, for a plain super weapon, from the very last chest I opened.

I do believe there's unequal odds for specific weapons. The 5 I'm still missing happen to be the most expensive ones on the TP and they're more expensive than my doubles by a wide margin.

[WorldofBay.8160]

i have 28 chests -> 4 skins (3 unique but luckily including the only one skin i wanted) and 3 of them of the 4 least valuable

my gf has 25 chests -> 3 skins and 2 of them of the 4 least valuable

so our drop rate seems to be above average yet the outcome might be well below if drop rates are actually even

a thing worth mentioning about value and drop rates is that the shield seems to have quite a good drop rate yet it has been extremely valuable at the start of the event - because it is a nice skin. also consider demand if you think about pricing, a focus or pistol usually isn't that valuable because it's not a big part of your appearance while a charr greatsword could fit 2 asura in it and therefore has a really important skin.