Best marketing step ANet could do right now - RELEASE PLAYER NUMBERS

[SpaceMarine.1836]

41 minutes ago, mungozen.2379 said:

As I have stated a few times "there are enough players" but how do I know?  You can log in and play most game modes most times of day and find people there to play.  You can join guilds with dozens to hundreds of active players at a given time.  You can call out in map chat or post in LFG and people will help you.

What do you think matters more, a report stating how many players are playing a game, or logging in and seeing enough players in game?

Your assertion that 'most reasonable people' will not try a game based upon the player numbers is exactly why you don't show those numbers.  It creates a false narrative about the quality of the game.  Logging in and experiencing the game will tell you if enough people are playing it for what you want to do.

Which leads to the question 'how many is enough?'  We could say 'enough to do the largest events' which would be 50ish.  Yet for all the metas full of players, sometimes multiple maps worth, we still have DRM which see minimal activity.  Is GW2 under-populated because most of the player base will never go to a DRM?

And yet, with minimal effort, you can use LFG/Guild and find enough players to form a DRM group.

I think I am a reasonable person and I do not judge a book by it's cover.  Player activity statistics mean very little in terms of my enjoyment in a game, and don't sway my decision making process at all.  Yes, I agree, you do need enough people to enjoy a game, but that is after deciding if the story, the themes, the art, the game mechanics etc are worth playing.  If the game isn't worth playing, then who cares how many people are playing it?

So how would Anet best sell their game?  By having people log in and get hooked on what the game is about, not how many people are playing it.

Yes, it's impossible to really have a conversation with you as you are unable to perceive the situation through any other perspective than your own. It's not about you, it's about ArenaNet/NCSoft. It's not about you being a happy player, it's about Anet/NCSoft making more money. When they pay the sponsored segments in YouTube video, they don't care about you, or people like you. No one cares about what you personally think about about the game or how do you approach trying out new games.

ANet can not sell their games by "having people log in" because most people will never get to the log in stage. They will dismiss the game as dead long before they even get to the thought of downloading the installer.

Then you may ask the question "Well, if ANet doesn't care about me, and only about making money (through the means of acquiring more players), why should I care about them?" - The answer to that is simple. The more players there are, the longer the lifespan of the game will be, so the longer will it stay alive.

[mungozen.2379]

10 minutes ago, SpaceMarine.1836 said:

Yes, it's impossible to really have a conversation with you as you are unable to perceive the situation through any other perspective than your own. It's not about you, it's about ArenaNet/NCSoft. It's not about you being a happy player, it's about Anet/NCSoft making more money. When they pay the sponsored segments in YouTube video, they don't care about you, or people like you. No one cares about what you personally think about about the game or how do you approach trying out new games.

ANet can not sell their games by "having people log in" because most people will never get to the log in stage. They will dismiss the game as dead long before they even get to the thought of downloading the installer.

Then you may ask the question "Well, if ANet doesn't care about me, and only about making money (through the means of acquiring more players), why should I care about them?" - The answer to that is simple. The more players there are, the longer the lifespan of the game will be, so the longer will it stay alive.

You seem to have missed most of the post I made.  I have talked about how player statistics have less relevance than you suggest.  That individual player experience trumps a random number.  It isn't that I don't see your side, it is that I think the position you have taken is narrow and doesn't account for things that matter in the broader sense, most specifically to GW2.

If we were talking about an FPS, then there is a higher chance that player activity would be relevant to a new player.  You are actively playing against other people and if they aren't there, then you don't get to play.  I would agree that advertising player activity in an FPS would have more relevance to a new players interest.  Yet as in any game, it doesn't matter how many people are playing if the game isn't what you want to play, and you can only judge that by logging in and trying it.

[wolfof.1842]

20 minutes ago, mungozen.2379 said:

Also, as an alternative to player base information, the following thread has quarterly sales info for GW2:

If you want to talk about business metrics, sales data > player base.  This shows that players are engaged in the game, and that the company is making enough money to continue developing it.  Paired with Anet/NCSoft refining their development cycles to promote annual releases with quarterly content updates and we can see they are invested in extending the life of this game.

NCsoft data from 2Q 2024 shows:

• Lineage: 24,554 million KRW
• GW2: 23,480 million KRW

Lineage, release in 1998 earns more than GW2 😃 
So sales data can not really tell new players about the game, only "monetization works".

17 minutes ago, Cyninja.2954 said:

True, but in the end you also need to have players spend that money in the first place. You are pretending as though the player base of this game is not very price sensitive, which it is.

GW2 sells cosmetic skin outfit for $25,00 now in 2024. 
Infinite gathering tools for $35,00 even

very price sensitive player base...? 😃
I think Arenanet know better about GW2 demographic than us

[Cyninja.2954]

14 minutes ago, wolfof.1842 said:

NCsoft data from 2Q 2024 shows:

• Lineage: 24,554 million KRW
• GW2: 23,480 million KRW

Lineage, release in 1998 earns more than GW2 😃 
So sales data can not really tell new players about the game, only "monetization works".

Lineage is also on mobile and has seen its revenue shrink.

You might want to do some basic research instead of just looking at 1 numer out of context.

14 minutes ago, wolfof.1842 said:

GW2 sells cosmetic skin outfit for $25,00 now in 2024. 
Infinite gathering tools for $35,00 even

very price sensitive player base...? 😃
I think Arenanet know better about GW2 demographic than us

If you compared GW2 pricing to ANY competatitor MMORPG, you'd see that prices here are a fraction of what the competition charges.

Not only in regard to cosmetics but also in regard to box price or subscription (which this game has none and even the closest competitors ESO and SWToR have).

You are not the first doomer, you won't be the last. Eventually one doomer will be right but I'd wager that won't be whe  the game is going strong.

Feel free to continue dooming, or leave just like all the others before you, or stick around until the game does eventually get discontinued, however many years that might be in the future.

Edited August 30 by Cyninja.2954

[mungozen.2379]

27 minutes ago, wolfof.1842 said:

NCsoft data from 2Q 2024 shows:

• Lineage: 24,554 million KRW
• GW2: 23,480 million KRW

Lineage, release in 1998 earns more than GW2 😃 
So sales data can not really tell new players about the game, only "monetization works".

And how does player activity tell new players about the game?  What is it saying that is much more valuable, in your opinion, over sales data?

[wolfof.1842]

1 minute ago, Cyninja.2954 said:

Lineage is also on mobile and has seen its revenue shrink.

You might want to do some basic research instead of just looking at 1 numer out of context.

Sorry but I think you need research instead, before telling wrong information.

Lineage on mobile is "Lineage M" and much higher: 

• Lineage M: 106,974 million KRW
• Lineage: 24,554 million KRW
• GW2: 23,480 million KRW

But like I say tells us nothing about all games, which is good, healthy...

Just now, mungozen.2379 said:

And how does player activity tell new players about the game?  What is it saying that is much more valuable, in your opinion, over sales data?

GW2 game design needs lot of players online in every map because of Open World dynamic events.
It is more important here than in other MMOs who focus on quests, dungeons...

So it is different if GW2 have

• 1,000 players spend $100 every month or
• 10,000 players spend $10 every month

to populate all open world map events, PvP, WvW.
That's why player count tells much more for gameplay than sale data

[mungozen.2379]

57 minutes ago, wolfof.1842 said:

GW2 game design needs lot of players online in every map because of Open World dynamic events.
It is more important here than in other MMOs who focus on quests, dungeons...

So it is different if GW2 have

• 1,000 players spend $100 every month or
• 10,000 players spend $10 every month

to populate all open world map events, PvP, WvW.
That's why player count tells much more for gameplay than sale data

What is 'a lot of players?'  

As I was saying in my response to SpaceMarine, as long as there are enough players, actual total numbers do not matter.

Currently GW2 has enough players to engage in most of the content most of the time.  No single number is going to provide you with that knowledge, but logging in and experiencing it will.

 

[Cyninja.2954]

2 hours ago, wolfof.1842 said:

GW2 game design needs lot of players online in every map because of Open World dynamic events.
It is more important here than in other MMOs who focus on quests, dungeons...

So it is different if GW2 have

• 1,000 players spend $100 every month or
• 10,000 players spend $10 every month

to populate all open world map events, PvP, WvW.
That's why player count tells much more for gameplay than sale data

Open world maps need between 50 and 125 players (the largest cap for PvE maps) if one were to populate a map, which is often not even needed to actually be able to complete all content on that map thanks to scaling.

The games megaserver system assures that even at minimal player numbers it can work. In case of extreme situations, this can/could even be affected with special events or designs which funnel players unto content.

Unlike traditional MMORPGs which to a great extent still rely on traditional server systems (see New World most recently). 

Again, the limited player numbers we have are showing a benefical development currently.

Also again: during a time when most competitors saw revenue shrink (it was not only Lineage which saw revenue decline in the MMO space) the revenue for GW2 grew.

GW2 remains one of the low cost leaders in the MMO space, which as mentioned is reflected in a very price sensitive player base (unlike say WoW players which most recently payed 40 dollars for 3 day early access on top of box price AND subscirption fee AND a cash shop).

Edited August 30 by Cyninja.2954

[TheGrimm.5624]

21 hours ago, wolfof.1842 said:

That would mean 5 million concurrent players logged in the same time.
Please tell us when you find a MMO with this many players 😃 

E: found all-time peak concurrent players on Steam:

• PUBG:  3,25 million 
• Black Myth:  2,4 million 
• Palworld:  2,1 million 
• Counter-Strike2:  1,8 million 
• Lost Ark:  1,3 million 

So let's just say GW2 has not double player numbers of most popular games in the world...

No I was more referring to if you think the ratio of players that bought the game via steam versus how many that bought it direct is 1 in 10 you are way off. Hence why you wouldn't be able to use steam stats for whatever reason you are trying to do so. 

[Halandir.3609]

Player numbers? What's the point? If you feel like the game is populated everything is fine!

You can't compare arbitrary numbers to anything meaningful. Even if Anet publish numbers, other games like FFXIV, BDO and TESO are not - What will you compare those numbers to?

Sure, you may think that everyone have been living under a rock for the past 13-14 years and they will see a number and decide: "I really need to go to this website and create yet another account to play this 14-year old game". Short version: Not happening! Most new players "try" the free to play version on the platform that have the most gamers locked in (Steam)...
The "fun" bit about this: Anet waddled around for almost 10 years, before they published where most gamers flock. When they finally did... "Fans" did everything they could to kill any hope of success on Steam 😒

But hey: You can compare numbers on Steam: FFXIV, BDO and TESO all have their own launchers + Steam, just like GW2 - They are just a "bit" more popular on Steam.

[Rogue.8235]

On 8/29/2024 at 12:08 PM, SpaceMarine.1836 said:

Yes. And not's just that I think it, it's that it is easily observable. When it comes to MMO games specifically, the health of the playerbase is in fact one of the top 3 factors players use to decide whether they give it a try.

I mean why would you even ask this when the answer is so obvious?

You keep forgetting that we are not talking about GW2 players, but the potential new players the ANet's advertising is targeted at. They know nothing about how GW2 works, and how alive the maps/instanced content groups are. They just go to steam charts, look at the numbers and say "meh".

 

The level of economic/market analysis is astounding.  I also like how you covered all the ratio metrics to solidify your point, such as CLC:CAC.  Also, of note, is your presentation of the metrics used to measure, quantify, and analyze through regression models the behavioral characteristics of the MMORPG market segment.  This is on par with the best Mintel reports i've ever seen.  IBIS also has nothing on this quality research.

 

No, you're idea is not the best marketing plan for the game.  This is predicated on the absence of any evidence that such a plan would have any measurable success.  Since there is no evidence to to even support such a hypothesis, the analysis is a non-starter.  Basically, it's a waste of time to determine whether or not releasing active player numbers helps with CAC.  There is no discernible correlation between an MMO releasing such numbers and revenue.  I looked through Mintel reports, and nothing.

 

[Halandir.3609]

4 hours ago, Cyninja.2954 said:

If you compared GW2 pricing to ANY competatitor MMORPG, you'd see that prices here are a fraction of what the competition charges.

Not only in regard to cosmetics but also in regard to box price or subscription (which this game has none and even the closest competitors ESO and SWToR have).

This is just... Uninformed? Let's look at a slightly newer competitor (MMO):

• Price to buy: 10€/10$ unless you join on a free weekend.
• Expansions/New classes/content/areas: Free
• A very (if not the most) comprehensive character/avatar generator (yeah, you can create asymmetrical faces and all)
• Definately P2W in some regards (like Gems to Gold in GW2)
• "Freemium" service: You have to pay for 16 slot extra storage + a 30% less sales tax when selling on the trade post.

The kicker is: Even if you don't pay the freemium you'll "earn" loyalty points that you can use to unlock storage/freemium  service etc. Whenever you login during events you'll be rewarded with everything from potions/loyalty points to (otherwise expensive) outfits.

Never bought (payed for) a charslot, inv. slot or outfit in this MMO I refer to: GW2 is not exactly an MMO unicorn 😏

[Cyninja.2954]

8 hours ago, Halandir.3609 said:

This is just... Uninformed? Let's look at a slightly newer competitor (MMO):

• Price to buy: 10€/10$ unless you join on a free weekend.
• Expansions/New classes/content/areas: Free
• A very (if not the most) comprehensive character/avatar generator (yeah, you can create asymmetrical faces and all)
• Definately P2W in some regards (like Gems to Gold in GW2)
• "Freemium" service: You have to pay for 16 slot extra storage + a 30% less sales tax when selling on the trade post.

The kicker is: Even if you don't pay the freemium you'll "earn" loyalty points that you can use to unlock storage/freemium  service etc. Whenever you login during events you'll be rewarded with everything from potions/loyalty points to (otherwise expensive) outfits.

Never bought (payed for) a charslot, inv. slot or outfit in this MMO I refer to: GW2 is not exactly an MMO unicorn 😏

I am going to assume you are talking about Neverwinter, since you decided to omit the actual name of the game you are refering to.

Neverwinter is arguably in a worse state than any of the other direct competitors as well as GW2 too, but you are correct in that if one playes enough, eventually you can get everything for "free".

I can't  comment on the scope of the game or content release, I'll be honest, I had completely forgotten this game exists in the first place.

I'll have to take your word on the fact that the games Pay to Win is on a similar level as gem to gold, aka near non given the questions is always WHAT can you buy with gold.

Honestly, I could do some research to see how well Neverwinter is doing but given that game has even less of a media presence than even GW2, why bother?

When I was refering to competitors I was infering at least some level of quality and quantity which is similar between products. I do not doubt that there is a ton of shovel ware or cheaper made "MMORPGs" out there which charge less for a lower quality product.

Edited August 31 by Cyninja.2954

[SpaceMarine.1836]

On 8/30/2024 at 10:28 PM, Rogue.8235 said:

The level of economic/market analysis is astounding.  I also like how you covered all the ratio metrics to solidify your point, such as CLC:CAC.  Also, of note, is your presentation of the metrics used to measure, quantify, and analyze through regression models the behavioral characteristics of the MMORPG market segment.  This is on par with the best Mintel reports i've ever seen.  IBIS also has nothing on this quality research.

 

No, you're idea is not the best marketing plan for the game.  This is predicated on the absence of any evidence that such a plan would have any measurable success.  Since there is no evidence to to even support such a hypothesis, the analysis is a non-starter.  Basically, it's a waste of time to determine whether or not releasing active player numbers helps with CAC.  There is no discernible correlation between an MMO releasing such numbers and revenue.  I looked through Mintel reports, and nothing.

I don't think you should be using words like correlation when you can't even handle difference between your and you're.

Anyway, it's impossible to dispute that one health of playerbase is major decision factor for new players when deciding whether to play a new MMO game specifically. 

I've seen several influencers in MMO scene (Asmongold, Preach, etc...) dismiss GW2 under the assumption that the game is dead. The latter one, Preach, regretted this assumption once he gave the game a try, the former one still hasn't since he still assumes the game is just dead, as it has 0 presence in marketing space, and only source of the playerbase health data are  the highly misleading steam charts numbers.

Edited September 3 by SpaceMarine.1836

[kharmin.7683]

4 hours ago, SpaceMarine.1836 said:

 

Anyway, it's impossible to dispute that one health of playerbase is major decision factor for new players when deciding whether to play a new MMO game specifically. 

 

Please cite your source for this claim.

[Dean Calaway.9718]

On 8/28/2024 at 10:35 PM, Linken.6345 said:

How is the year 2026 mate?

Nuclear war, draft in full swing, half the guys turned into cat-girls the other half rather go out with dignity, rich people fly their private plane to their mega yachts to their bigger planes so they can go on television to tell you you can't eat meat, a mid range graphic card is $10,000 but politicians assure you inflation is only 3% and if you complain you get arrested.

[kharmin.7683]

32 minutes ago, Dean Calaway.9718 said:

Nuclear war, draft in full swing, half the guys turned into cat-girls the other half rather go out with dignity, rich people fly their private plane to their mega yachts to their bigger planes so they can go on television to tell you you can't eat meat, a mid range graphic card is $10,000 but politicians assure you inflation is only 3% and if you complain you get arrested.

So, basically, more of the same then.

[zefaistos.2601]

ANET kinda did something like this after EoD when they said the player population doubled compared to some point, and also that the development is bigger than last years. So yes, this kind of data is important to create a good sentiment in the mmorpg community overall, even smaller games like lotro did that and it reached a lot of relevant streamers/content creators and the community overall.

What other games like wow, ffxiv and path of exile do, is choosing a peak when the game is growing and say soomething like "with this release we had a record x peak concurrent players", or at least talk about percentage increases, and then be silent until the next high point.

But in the marketing scene, the game needs to focus more on telling how the combat works, and talking about the open world content. GW2 is the gold standard for hybrid combat, and has the best open world content in any mmorpg, but people don't know about that. Talking about mounts and homesteads is cute, but combat and conveying what is unique about gw2 content is far more important to attract new players. 

Also, a lot of people think the graphics are bad. There's an indirect way to help with that, like creating more video content talking about different things, and using the best looking locations in the game, like PoF and JW especially, and some EoD and HoT, and avoid using core tyria locations.

And they should try to find a way to fix some of the performance issues, like shadows and other things. Because I see a lot of content creators selecting a low/medium preset instead of customizing the things that affect cpu performance the most, so someone will see the game with low/medium textures, shaders and post effects, and think that's how the game actually looks.

[Rogue.8235]

18 hours ago, SpaceMarine.1836 said:

you can't even handle difference between your and you're.

Conceded.  You managed to find a typographical error while simultaneously ignoring the substance of the post; i.e., you're unable to demonstrate any level of rudimentary knowledge regarding market/economic analysis.  There is actually a slight substantive mistake I made in my post, but you're failure to identify it merely proves your ineptitude within the subject matter.

 

18 hours ago, SpaceMarine.1836 said:

I don't think you should be using words like correlation when you can't even handle difference between your and you're.

Anyway, it's impossible to dispute that one health of playerbase is major decision factor for new players when deciding whether to play a new MMO game specifically. 

I've seen several influencers in MMO scene (Asmongold, Preach, etc...) dismiss GW2 under the assumption that the game is dead. The latter one, Preach, regretted this assumption once he gave the game a try, the former one still hasn't since he still assumes the game is just dead, as it has 0 presence in marketing space, and only source of the playerbase health data are  the highly misleading steam charts numbers.

the hasty generalization fallacy is demonstrated here.  You're generalizing a limited sample's characteristics onto a population that does not necessarily share such inclinations.  You're essentially assuming that everyone views the world as you do, and that the experiences of every other individual is limited to your own.  I have not seen any evidence that social media influencers are able to affect a market segment to the point of justifying resources to exploit.  Social media influences do not appear to be an economically sound method of reducing CAC. or to present a viable alternative to current strategies.

As a caveat, research is continuous and ongoing.  What you argue may be true in the future if there is a solid, lasting trend.  For now, there is now empirical evidence to support your claim.  Just saw a 2024 paper released which suggests a generational shift is upcoming towards social media influences as a viable means of marketing.  What I'm interested to see is if that same age group category maintains such inclinations over the next few years. 

Even so, I'm not sure this specific demographic has a large presence in the market segments for MMORPGs.  Remember, the market segments within each genre of video games do not necessarily overlap.  Don't generalize the data of one genre to another without support.  That 2024 report failed to delineate the data by genre, which is unfortunate.  

 

[Obtena.7952]

Weird idea ... most people won't understand what player numbers mean and are suspecting of such data for an 11 YO MMO. Even if you tell me it's 1 million ... meh. Maybe pick up a few people because they are dazzled by numbers. 

Edited September 5 by Obtena.7952