DarcShriek.5829 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Typically, people don't understand how random numbers and percentages work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Obtena.7952 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 @DarcShriek.5829 said:Typically, people don't understand how random numbers and percentages work.... and even if you told them how that math worked ... probably wouldn't get it. That's why the idea of being transparent with the drop rates isn't useful. If anything, people would MISUSE that information to complain they should have gotten something because 'math' or that the rates are too low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Super Hayes.6890 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 @Obtena.7952 said:@DarcShriek.5829 said:Typically, people don't understand how random numbers and percentages work.... and even if you told them how that math worked ... probably wouldn't get it. That's why the idea of being transparent with the drop rates isn't useful. If anything, people would MISUSE that information to complain they should have gotten something because 'math' or that the rates are too low. This is absolutely true. People would make thier own decision about what amount of keys would gaurantee the drop they want and when RNG decides otherwise they would lose thier minds and demand compensation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarcShriek.5829 Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 @Obtena.7952 said:@DarcShriek.5829 said:Typically, people don't understand how random numbers and percentages work.... and even if you told them how that math worked ... probably wouldn't get it. That's why the idea of being transparent with the drop rates isn't useful. If anything, people would MISUSE that information to complain they should have gotten something because 'math' or that the rates are too low. I disagree, I think the transparency would be useful. It would allow people to generate an expected value of the keys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Obtena.7952 Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 @DarcShriek.5829 said:@Obtena.7952 said:@DarcShriek.5829 said:Typically, people don't understand how random numbers and percentages work.... and even if you told them how that math worked ... probably wouldn't get it. That's why the idea of being transparent with the drop rates isn't useful. If anything, people would MISUSE that information to complain they should have gotten something because 'math' or that the rates are too low. I disagree, I think the transparency would be useful. It would allow people to generate an expected value of the keys.You're going to have to explain how this would work ... the expected value of the keys, in terms of what? Considering the value of the key is based on a random process and the market price for items that may drop from a BLC fluctuates ... how do you think you go about assigning value to a single key that would be meaningful to anyone, EVEN for those people that know how to theoretically calculate it? Again, that's has nothing but misuse written all over it. Sure, for a very select few people, it could be useful ... but in general, not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solvar.7953 Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 I think the point is that if a full breakdown was given, such that you knew there was a 1% of some item worth 500 gp, 10% chance of item with 50 gp, 5% chance of item worth 20 gold, etc, one could take all those probabilities and say that on average, the stuff you get from a black lion chest is X gold. So if that was less than it cost to buy a key (via gem conversion), one could say one should not buy keys, if it is more, you are in theory making money.But since a lot of stuff you get may be account bound, you are not really making money - your overall account value may be going up by more than the key cost you, but you can not translate that directly into gold.Also, other objects (guaranteed skin unlocks) have an imprecise value that varies based on account. On a brand new account that hasn't unlocked anything (why they would buy keys is a different question), since unlocks have a lower value because there are a lot of very common and cheap weapons it may unlock. On an account which has played a lot, the value of that unlock is more.My personal thought is more information is never a bad thing for the consumer. It may be that users will not complain statistics, but right now, vague definitions of rare, uncommon, etc are not great either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarcShriek.5829 Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 Anything that can be purchased from the gem store or TP has a value that can be determined through the API. If we know the frequency of the items, a decent programmer can extract and calculate the value. Black lion statuettes would cause a slight difficulty, but a standard for determining the value of them could be worked out and followed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kharmin.7683 Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 Just because something has a 1 in 100 chance of dropping does not guarantee that it will drop once in 100 tries. This is what some people don't understand about probability and drop rates. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Obtena.7952 Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 @Solvar.7953 said:I think the point is that if a full breakdown was given, such that you knew there was a 1% of some item worth 500 gp, 10% chance of item with 50 gp, 5% chance of item worth 20 gold, etc, one could take all those probabilities and say that on average, the stuff you get from a black lion chest is X gold. So if that was less than it cost to buy a key (via gem conversion), one could say one should not buy keys, if it is more, you are in theory making money.Yes, you can theoretically calculate payout ... except the drop rates are still random and buying BLC's to flip their items on the TP to make gold isn't a sensible approach because gold can be purchased with gems directly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sasya neko.1985 Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 i think about a year ago they changed something with the BLC drop rate, since then it's bin horrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peter.3901 Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 I got my vermillion great sword on the free blc, and got the cape + griffon in around 20 keys after. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archenblade.3405 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 The point that everyone seems to be missing, whether Anet uses schedules of reinforcement in BLC's or not. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omega.6801 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 12/18/2020 at 10:49 PM, Omega.6801 said: It's always the same. BLC-Keys are gambling. Don't gamble if you can't handle the loss. Don't buy keys if you don't want to gamble. Don't buy the keys if you don't want gambling to be part of the game. Vote with your wallet. Yada yada yada. See you next time this topic gets discussed, i.e. when the chests get their next update.. Same gamble, same topic, same answer... inb4 thread gets closed 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Linken.6345 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 hour ago, Archenblade.3405 said: The point that everyone seems to be missing, whether Anet uses schedules of reinforcement in BLC's or not. Uses what now? like if they see someone spending alot of keys the turn down the drop rates? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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