Math to back up why Maguuma should go it alone next relink.

[Kirevey.5079]

Ppl keep talking about how many ppl mag has, but in reality, after reset, is just the same ppl that play and hop maps a lot. I've played in a lot of servers during the 10 years of the game, and the main difference I see with Mag is that when someone calls something out in map chat, people actually show up to defend/attack. If there is no commander, you just ask in map chat 'where is the content?' and many will answer with 'X red going to swc', 'zerg passing by Y', etc. Then give it like a min or 2 and you get there and some other people are showing up to do something. There is scout calls at all times, and people will go see what is up.

 

There is also a lot of talk about how Mag pugs are better than other server pugs, but like any other server, is a mix of everything. The only skill that I would say Mag is better at is playing of each other. How many times have I inted into a fight and then the cloud would push with me, even if we all die lmao. How many times I'm about to go down and a random fellow pug would cover me with some reflects/resistance/stab, etc., just to deny the kill to the other server, because if we go down, the other server gets points, and we don't want to feed. 

 

I play mostly off hours, and the amount of people I see for other servers is most of the time more than us, but they are all just waiting while defending a tower, or for the time zone commander/guild that would let them become a blob and just rush cap everything they can. Ppl say we rush small groups with numbers, but forget to say they do the same when they can. And is not a thing of 'Mag did it first, so we do it to them', its been happening in the game for years. 

 

I think that, instead of putting the blame on the players, we could blame Anet for the lack of any meaningful change to the game mode. The game is old, a lot of people waited for changes that never happened and then just left the game, with them pugmanders and guilds. The game before thrived when there were a lot of groups running, because it would split them up and everyone would have a piece of the fun, but now that they are not there, Anet never addressed the issue and people did not learn what to do. Add to that the lack of balance of stats and core mechanics and well, more ppl leave the game mode.

 

I don't blame people for stacking Mag if they do, because if you are really into the game mode, you can do kitten without waiting for a specific hour, or a pugmander, or a guild group, you just show up and play.

[Jeydra.4386]

People don't like to admit they are overstacked. Like, I remember way back in Season 1 when the tier 1 servers were SoR, Blackgate, and JQ. I was on Blackgate at the time and witnessed firsthand how we were queued on all four maps 24/7, which means it was literally impossible for a server to be more overstacked than we were. But of course during the trashtalking of that era there were Blackgate players who refused to believe they were overstacked. I remember one player calling me toxic and offering to pay me to leave the server for saying Blackgate was overstacked (they never did, so I'm still on Blackgate).

Maguuma is obviously overstacked. They do have weak timezones, but short ones, and they often have enough online during those weak timezones to resist the other two servers. This doesn't detract from how Maguuma are:

1. Good players on average, it is quite dangerous to stand on walls and attack them for example because they will pull you off;
2. Dedicated, it takes dedication to sit in camps until keeps/towers are T3, and Maguuma has players that dothat every day.

But Maguuma are overstacked. They roll over every other server on most timezones by such a margin that I find it funny some people can blame the lopsided score on other factors with what sounds like a straight face. I wonder how many of these players do nothing except zerg, play only during a certain timezone, have experience fighting guild groups with pugs & slightly inferior numbers, or have played when the opponents have such a large numbers advantage across all maps that you are outnumbered no matter where you go even when roaming (including to other maps). It's human nature, I suppose.

Finally I'll point out something that was also true in the SoR vs. Blackgate vs. JQ matches of so many years ago: during the weekends and especially immediately after reset, when the other servers have more people playing, Maguuma are not nearly as dominant. They actually lose fights, fail to upgrade objectives, and die a lot. Hell, we can see that even this week, where BG/KN had 1.99 K/D in the very first skirmish, far ahead of Mag/YB with 1.28. It's only in the following skirmishes when Maguuma have significantly more players that superior population asserts itself and they start pulling ahead. 

Edited January 12, 2023 by Jeydra.4386

[Sahne.6950]

First off: i am EU. I never played against MAG.

but from what i have read in the forums i have questions...

why was it open for transfer?  And why does mag get a link that is also "very high" on the population... RIGHT AFTER THEY WERE OPEN FOR TRANSFER.

how about giving mag the weakest link and go from there? i dont see the need to give them a strong link.

Edited January 12, 2023 by Sahne.6950

[Telgum.6071]

46 minutes ago, Kirevey.5079 said:

the main difference I see with Mag is that when someone calls something out in map chat, people actually show up to defend/attack. If there is no commander, you just ask in map chat 'where is the content?' and many will answer with 'X red going to swc', 'zerg passing by Y', etc. Then give it like a min or 2 and you get there and some other people are showing up to do something

By hoping between different servers this is probably the biggest difference I've seen between them. There are servers where people don't play at all if there isn't a commander, these servers rarely have scouts and you are likely to lose big stuff because even if there are scouts, not enough people will show up to defend.

And then there are servers with barely a commander per week, but with people wondering where the content is, and you get messages in team chat informing about enemy presence. Sometimes you even get people infiltrating in open enemy squads to inform about their movements.

This is why is don't believe most of what is said about Maguuma, because I've seen the difference between roaming servers and servers that are inactive if there isn't someone in discord giving orders.

I really recommend people to start looking for themselves and learn to play alone. Is really sad to see Diamond players completely unable to defend themselves.

Edited January 12, 2023 by Telgum.6071
Typo

[exeggcuter.8394]

Wow, I'm amazed I managed to create such a huge hatefest with just a few choice pieces of data. You guys amaze me sometimes. Especially this ~obs? guy. I'm thankful I've never seen him on my team before, he seems like he'd make everyone else's life miserable just being in the same team chat as him holy cow. Please never transfer to EBay ever thanks.

 

But! Going back to my original point, and since math seems to rile you guys up more, for w/e reason. Here's another, which is the gist of what's really happening, and why it really is so shamefully simple:

 

Lancaster's Square Law. It was a mathematical formula developed during WW1, which shows how the difference in numbers in a battle can lead to outcomes far more lopsided  than it would at first seem. The long and short of it is, being outnumbered by just a little tiny bit leads to a huge difference in how many people on each side survive a fight. If you've ever played a tactical RTS you've likely seen this first hand. Like say you use 10 units against just 8 or 9, focus firing, you will end with far more than just 1 or 2 units left. Even *IF* mag outnumbered the other side by a small margin (possible sometimes) it would still lead to that other side getting crushed simply because of the math involved.

 

Also: so many people here are bragging about their supposed skill in this game. I've seen it, lol, it's not there, sorry. The vast bulk of people who play WvW are not there to fight other players. The vast bulk of players who play WvW are there to get their gift of battle so they can get their legendary. That is not why I play it. I play it because I like fighting other players. I don't claim to be good at this game, but I do enjoy it. What I don't enjoy is having the matchmaking so lopsided that relative skill stops being relevant. What I don't enjoy is getting mobbed by a map que the second I get spotted trying to take a tier 0 camp. What I don't enjoy is seeing all 4 maps controlled by one team. Don't pretend that is somehow one team being more skilled than all the others. Do yourself a favor and at least admit to yourself privately that your team has an unfair advantage. Admit to yourself privately that you contributed to this problem.

 

TLDR: ya'll get riled up making this seem more complex than it really is lol. GLHF.

[Arya Whitefire.8423]

What players or servers have done, or could do is irrelevant.  Only Arenanet can fix the systemic problems with wvw that have led to this state.  And sadly I don't even think they're aware of most of them.  Anything that special cases Maguuma, or any other server, is absolutely not a fix.

[moutzaheadin.4029]

1 hour ago, exeggcuter.8394 said:

Especially this ~obs? guy. I'm thankful I've never seen him on my team before, he seems like he'd make everyone else's life miserable just being in the same team chat as him holy cow. Please never transfer to EBay ever thanks.

You wish I would tag up for your team. I would introduce a spine to you and the rest of your server. 

There’s a reason why just about every other person who tags (but me) on MAG gets shamed into tagging down… TRUST. My brothers trust me and I trust them. It’s something that is built over a long period of time. 

 

Finally you don’t know me. So I’m not sure where you come to the conclusion that I’m miserable? All I have done up and down this silly, salty, fake news thread is bring some truth and perspective outside of your echo chamber.

 

have a magical day

 

~obs

Edited January 12, 2023 by moutzaheadin.4029

[Chaba.5410]

30 minutes ago, Arya Whitefire.8423 said:

What players or servers have done, or could do is irrelevant.  Only Arenanet can fix the systemic problems with wvw that have led to this state.  And sadly I don't even think they're aware of most of them.  Anything that special cases Maguuma, or any other server, is absolutely not a fix.

World Restructuring is a perfectly valid systemic response to what is essentially player self-selection bias that results in players sorting into different servers based on some perceived playstyles or reputations.

[MedievalThings.5417]

This topic is ridiculous.  If Anet gives Mag a link, then Anet thinks Mag needs a link.  Period.

Mag isn't crushing T1 because they outskill everyone.  People are just tired of their playstyle so no one logs in to fight them.  Hence, they own everything.

 

With the "math" that this topic is considering, TC would NEVER be open.  Because every single server has alts on TC, AND, we know TC has a huge PvE population that only steps into WvW for like 5 mins a year.  BUT, if they all tried to play WvW at once, TC could probably que every map with a 100 person que 24 hours a day.

 

To be fair, every server probably could que every map with 100 person ques if everyone that had accounts logged in.

 

Can we stop with the "fighting mag 1v3 under siege is boring" threads.  We all already know this, which is why tons of mag are on alts for anything to do.

[Chaba.5410]

3 minutes ago, Ubi.4136 said:

With the "math" that this topic is considering, TC would NEVER be open

Yea, I kind of skipped over the "math" as any measure of "population" because it's warscore...

[Arya Whitefire.8423]

As far as I'm concerned, world restructuring has already proven to be unable to solve the Maguuma problem. 

 

I have lots of accounts, and played in most matchups of every beta.  [MAG] guild completely dominated whichever matchup they were in starting Monday, if not sooner.  As someone else on this thread mentioned, you're going to have to cut guild sizes to the bone, to fix lopsided matchups based on skill+playtime stacking.  And Arenanet hasn't indicated much willingness to do that.  Also doing it probably would cause a mass cascade of quitting.

 

[exeggcuter.8394]

I'm going to assume br ubi here didn't read the math so I'll simply sum up the gist:

 

Mag got more point than the other 2 servers last week put together. That's the entirety of the math lol.

 

My idea was to simply have mag go alone for 1 relink. Whether they get relinked with another server next next relink? Dunno.

 

Ya'll making it seemed like I claimed something far larger or complex than that. Which is fine. It's been fun watching this thread get longer and longer.

[Chaba.5410]

6 minutes ago, Arya Whitefire.8423 said:

[MAG] guild completely dominated whichever matchup they were in starting Monday, if not sooner.

 

And I was matched with MAG twice in past betas and what you say about complete domination happened only in the last beta because the last beta occurred when everyone starting complaining again about Mag on the forums.  Big, bad, scary MAG...

The other betas with MAG were far more balanced.

Congrats on running from all these terrible pugs from other servers just because you saw a MAG tag.

Edited January 12, 2023 by Chaba.5410

[exeggcuter.8394]

Adding to what Chaba here said, I found the betas a ton of fun. Way more balanced in terms of numbers, so a huge improvement from my perspective.

 

I suppose I should add that the guilds I chose to run with are all very small in terms of who plays WvW (easily <10 people).

Edited January 12, 2023 by exeggcuter.8394
Additional info

[Arya Whitefire.8423]

10 minutes ago, Chaba.5410 said:

The other betas with MAG were far more balanced.

 

It's possible they were more balanced in a score sense, but in a "I'd like to play a bit on ebg sense", during mag's prime time 10ish am to 2ish am EST, it was catastrophic.

 

Also the matchups in general, at any time of  a weekday other than during NA prime, typically had one side dominating, and almost no one playing except on the dominating side.

 

Anet's idea of balance by "average play hours per world", interacts very poorly with clumpy off hours guilds to produce worlds where if they have good off hours, their NA always loses, and if they have no off hours, their NA dominates.  So while it might make the scores look better, the play environment is actually worse for much of the day.  At least that's what I saw, it was especially prevalent the last 2 betas.

 

And to not be all bad news....  The first beta was awesome, almost festive, and I expect launch of alliances to be pretty fun for a month or3, but it will fall of rapidly after that, unless Anet does something drastic like crank the rewards, and turn alliance wvw into EOTM 2.0.   Which, I guess would be better than nothing.  

 

 

Edited January 12, 2023 by Arya Whitefire.8423
added EST TZ to times

[Chaba.5410]

3 minutes ago, Arya Whitefire.8423 said:

Also the matchups in general, at any time of  a weekday other than during NA prime, typically had one side dominating, and almost no one playing except on the dominating side.

 

Anet's idea of balance by "average play hours per world", interacts very poorly with clumpy off hours guilds to produce worlds where if they have good off hours, their NA always loses, and if they have no off hours, their NA dominates.  So while it might make the scores look better, the play environment is actually worse for much of the day.  At least that's what I saw, it was especially prevalent the last 2 betas.

So you're saying now that the problem of domination is due to timezone mismatches and not because of MAG?

[Engel.6029]

7 hours ago, moutzaheadin.4029 said:

This is just simply not true. I play about 7-8 hours a day. There is NONE of this gibberish in our mapchat or team chat. 

 

~obs

Can you really call it winning if you are spending 56 hours a week in wvw?

Edited January 12, 2023 by Engel.6029
spelling

[exeggcuter.8394]

Whoa that's a lot of time. *checks amount of time I played Factorio in the last 2 weeks*. Hmmm nah, I've seen worse lol.

[MedievalThings.5417]

20 minutes ago, exeggcuter.8394 said:

Adding to what Chaba here said, I found the betas a ton of fun. Way more balanced in terms of numbers, so a huge improvement from my perspective.

 

I suppose I should add that the guilds I chose to run with are all very small in terms of who plays WvW (easily <10 people).

Every beta, except the last one, was the same.  Super-dominant server.  Controls smc and about everything else 18-20 hours a day.  Medium server, who might take smc during a 2 hour window, definitely not competing with the super-stack.  One server who was an afterthought, will never take smc, will be lucky to hold their keep 4 hours.

Edited January 12, 2023 by Ubi.4136

[Arya Whitefire.8423]

4 minutes ago, Chaba.5410 said:

So you're saying now that the problem of domination is due to timezone mismatches and not because of MAG?

 

I'm saying both problems existed in the alliance betas.  Excluding the 1st one, which was a great time all around.

 

[MAG] is an example of SKILL+Playtime stacking... most off hours guilds, are more just playtime stacking with less skill disparity.

[Arya Whitefire.8423]

1 minute ago, Arya Whitefire.8423 said:

 

I'm saying both problems existed in the alliance betas.  Excluding the 1st one, which was a great time all around.

 

[MAG] is an example of SKILL+Playtime stacking... most off hours guilds, are more just playtime stacking with less skill disparity.

 

Rather MOST off hours guilds are Timezone stacking, they usually just play 2-5 hours a day, 3-5 days a week, just like NA guilds.

 

MAG guild has a lot of players who play 8+ hours a day, and do so with significantly greater skill at fighting.

[Chaba.5410]

2 minutes ago, Arya Whitefire.8423 said:

MAG guild has a lot of players who play 8+ hours a day, and do so with significantly greater skill at fighting.

Yes.

Considering timezone as part of team formation has been acknowledged going back to some of the earliest Dev posts on WR so I'm not ready yet to proclaim that WR is not going to fix anything with regards to that.

Edited January 12, 2023 by Chaba.5410

[slitherpuss.2854]

32 minutes ago, Engel.6029 said:

Can you really call it winning if you are spending 56 hours a week in wvw.

 

Lmao.

 

 

Edited January 12, 2023 by slitherpuss.2854
Funny stuff

[MedievalThings.5417]

3 hours ago, Sahne.6950 said:

First off: i am EU. I never played against MAG.

but from what i have read in the forums i have questions...

why was it open for transfer?  And why does mag get a link that is also "very high" on the population... RIGHT AFTER THEY WERE OPEN FOR TRANSFER.

how about giving mag the weakest link and go from there? i dont see the need to give them a strong link.

People are just tired of fighting mag 1v3 all the time.  So, no one logs in to fight them.  They own everything meaning they have nothing to do either.  So they log on their mains for 5 mins to check things, then play the rest of the week on alts.  So, mag opened because they killed their own content forcing them to play elsewhere.

[The Raven.1320]

Several people are typing...

 

Oh this should be good.