gnashblade zepherite supply box RNG fail

[satans plea.1704]

 

I get I'll be told RNG is what it is but: 33,600 gems - 400keys ended with 407 gnashblade boxes with results of :

       Air filtration device of anti toxin light & heavy

       Superior rune of the zephyrite

       Materials

totally awesome... everyone rush out to spend real money on keys for this crap (fyi-max MF 750%)

     edit: 550more more boxes opened at max MF with basicly the same exact results. like a casino with rigged tables to steal your money. great job anet, so bad it's almost an obvious cheating money grab. can't wait to see how 4 winds festival pans out as well.  and for those responding, I am welcome to my opinion on results that should obviously be much better.

Edited July 20 by satans plea.1704
gnashblade zepher supply boxes clearly set up to waste any idea that drops would be fair in any way

[Batel.9206]

Well...yes. Random is random. 🤷‍♀️

However, you can also get Zephyrite supply boxes in the Festival of the Four Winds, which starts on the 30th. It has more or less the same drops and presumably the same chances for something rare, except Gnashblade's also has a chance for some vendor trophies you can sell for a small amount of gold.

[DanAlcedo.3281]

Thanks for your investment in GW2. 

You are the whale we need. 

[nosleepdemon.1368]

I work in the slot games business as an engine developer. I’ve built one proprietary engine and work maintaining another our company purchased, including physical slot machines. Yes, my life karma is probably in the negative at this point. Our games are actually very fair, we have a comparatively high rate of return versus our competitors and clearly state the mechanics and odds for our games. Now all developers test their products obviously, and I am no exception, I do a fair bit of testing because I’m the lead and also I respect our QA team’s time and wouldn’t dare submit obviously broken features to them. We also run simulations of our games - both purely testing RNG and with headless clients. We tend to run simulations in clusters of several billion, and our mathematician performs analysis to ensure the RNG distribution has very little recurrence. 
 

With all this said, I would not buy into any sort of gambling with the expectation of coming out on top. ALL gambling favours the house, how could it not? If it didn’t, the house would go broke. Also, current results are no indication of future returns. You can absolutely go thousands of plays without anything to show for it. I have tested our games a LOT and my highest recorded win over 10 years of working at this company is a little over a thousand dollars. I have ‘wagered’ millions. Remember, our games are VERY fair. 
 

I would take this as a lesson learned OP, and stop wagering right now. 

[Inculpatus cedo.9234]

How much Gold did you get back? 

Got videos or screenshots? 

[satans plea.1704]

gold back from junk was not documented but from memory somewhere around 1k, give or take  50g in either direction, would be my guess.

[Shuzuru.3651]

Your premise is wrong, you don't use key for zephyrites supply box, that's like the consolation prize of the black lion chest. You're not expected to win big on the consolation prize, if you aimed at it, sorry but you played yourself.

Oh, and your MF don't affect any of this, no need to mention it.

Edited July 24 by Shuzuru.3651
I'm stupid and didn't check ingame

[Inculpatus cedo.9234]

On 7/19/2024 at 12:28 AM, DanAlcedo.3281 said:

Thanks for your investment in GW2. 

You are the whale we need. 

I'm thinking it was more Gold-to-Gems than cash-to-ArenaNet.  🤷‍♂️

[DanAlcedo.3281]

4 hours ago, Inculpatus cedo.9234 said:

I'm thinking it was more Gold-to-Gems than cash-to-ArenaNet.  🤷‍♂️

How is he smart enough to make enough (throw away) gold to even do this but not smart enough to know that this is clearly a dumd idea? 

That doesn't add up. 

Edit:

So, roughly speaking. He dropped over 30k gold on keys. 

Not even for the loot box itself but the loot box inside the loot box. 

Which has many videos showing the rates where people open 10s of thousands. And is known for many years for their giga bad drop rates. 

No way he is smart enough to make 30k gold of throw away money but doesn't know the wiki/YouTube/Google exist. 

Edited July 24 by DanAlcedo.3281

[BatelGeuce.3591]

7 hours ago, Shuzuru.3651 said:

Your premise is wrong, you don't use key for zephyrites supply box, that's like the consolation prize of the black lion chest. You're not expected to win big on the consolation prize, if you aimed at it, sorry but you played yourself.

Oh, and your MF don't affect any of this, no need to mention it.

While I agree with the premise being wrong, the description of the item clearly states that it is affected by MF -> https://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Gnashblade_Zephyrite_Supply_Box

It also says the same in-game if you wanna check.

[Shuzuru.3651]

1 hour ago, BatelGeuce.3591 said:

While I agree with the premise being wrong, the description of the item clearly states that it is affected by MF -> https://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Gnashblade_Zephyrite_Supply_Box

It also says the same in-game if you wanna check.

No, entirely my fault, I didn't check ingame, and since very few container are affected by MF (including the classic zephyrite supply box), I kinda assume by default that it's not affected by it.

[Tiamat.8254]

So 950 keys on a chance for what exactly? It's always going to be a chance. You are not guaranteed anything lucrative for your investment if you are buying blc keys. 

Not everyone rushes to spend real money on this. I hope most know they are not guaranteed anything lucrative by opening black lion Chests.

[draxynnic.3719]

On 7/22/2024 at 2:38 AM, nosleepdemon.1368 said:

I work in the slot games business as an engine developer. I’ve built one proprietary engine and work maintaining another our company purchased, including physical slot machines. Yes, my life karma is probably in the negative at this point. Our games are actually very fair, we have a comparatively high rate of return versus our competitors and clearly state the mechanics and odds for our games. Now all developers test their products obviously, and I am no exception, I do a fair bit of testing because I’m the lead and also I respect our QA team’s time and wouldn’t dare submit obviously broken features to them. We also run simulations of our games - both purely testing RNG and with headless clients. We tend to run simulations in clusters of several billion, and our mathematician performs analysis to ensure the RNG distribution has very little recurrence. 
 

With all this said, I would not buy into any sort of gambling with the expectation of coming out on top. ALL gambling favours the house, how could it not? If it didn’t, the house would go broke. Also, current results are no indication of future returns. You can absolutely go thousands of plays without anything to show for it. I have tested our games a LOT and my highest recorded win over 10 years of working at this company is a little over a thousand dollars. I have ‘wagered’ millions. Remember, our games are VERY fair. 
 

I would take this as a lesson learned OP, and stop wagering right now. 

While a valid warning for gambling for money, I don't think it really applies to BLKs. Regular gambling requires having a margin to be profitable for the house. ArenaNet made their profit the moment someone purchased gems for real money, and there's no way for players to cash in game items to get money back from ArenaNet if they win big somehow. So ArenaNet can afford to give good in-game rewards for key use rather than being a 'you should only play for entertainment because the house always wins in the end' situation like regular gambling.

This doesn't change the fact that having some items be locked behind what is still effectively gambling is a bit skeevy, though. ArenaNet does somewhat get around this through statuettes, but the number you need still makes this an expensive proposition.

Regarding the OP - it is absolutely a thing that some 'consolation prize' items are worth more than others. You chose the wrong cycle to blow a ton of keys.

[Noidea Incognito.9607]

Eh... its chance, not guarantee. One could get 50 k boxes and have bad rolls or one could get 50 boxes on a whim and get good rolls. The whole point is "the promise of good fortune"

Opening a vast amounts of those chests doesn't automatically mean ka-ching;

Does Magic Find even matter for chest rng? It helps for loot drops in the game world for sure, but never heard of such chests being affected by MF.

How does the rng with such chests work in gw2?

Is it based on personal chance/luck or is it a percentage chance divided among the total player base( 1 in a 20.000.000 (chance)players for instance)

Edited July 30 by Noidea Incognito.9607

[Inculpatus cedo.9234]

2 hours ago, Noidea Incognito.9607 said:

How does the rng with such chests work in gw2?

The higher your character's Magic Find (up to 750), the better the chance for a higher tier item with containers/chests affected by Magic Find such as these.

[Zily.3152]

For the "super rare" drops anyways, you have a very high chance for it to be an antique summoning stone, because for whatever reason, those like to drop the most despite being in the same category as the good stuff. So yeah, you will always come out negative.

[AliamRationem.5172]

I guess you aren't familiar with "lootboxes".  They're straight up gambling with terrible odds on the off chance that you get an exclusive or rare item.  Outside of that tiny percentage chance to get something valuable or exclusive they are not even close to worth the price of a key and in fact are generally practically worthless.  Why would you need to spend that much money to figure this out?

[Dean Calaway.9718]

Just because they're in the same category doesn't mean they have the same odds.

That's why you have drop research on the wiki, check it out.

[Luthan.5236]

I wouldn't use it that way. Sure ... in real life they are gambling addictions. And laws against it. (Afaik in Belgium ArenaNet can't even sell the Black Lion Chest keys cause the gems could have been bought with real money - though trading gold for gems also is possible.) Games try to make also use if it. And in certain cases in GW2 you usually would not lose real money. (Like with the ecto gambling. As long as you do not buy gems to trade into gold to do that.)

Those chests never have a guaranteed super rare drop "after x chests". (They did that for certain in game skin boxes - you getting one after like 1k containers opened I think. It is in the wiki. But afaik only once. And never for gem store stuff.) You are supposed to use gems every now and then to gamble - not to hardcore buy gems trying to get the jackpot.

I guess it is more like playing in a casino trying for small or medium profits (winning) ... with the Jackpots only being a lucky thing. I mean ... playing lottery also isn't something people usually do big style. (Technically depending on the system they could buy everything. In Germany we have 6 out of 49 + an additional number from 0 to 9. I think ... like 140 million options price 1.2 euros per tip and if you "bought" all the possible options you even could get the win for certain. Just that you then would pay a lot more millions than you would get lol.)

Look at the statuettes - and how stuff is offered for gems, statuettes - and maybe tradeable at the TP (some super rate stuff like the permanent contracts might be cheaper on TP ... as your "safe" option to get them for sure).

If you really have an addiction (like ... spending a lot more money than you own or had planned to spend ... feeling bad later) - professional help is recommended though.

Personally I open 1 box each time the chest content changes. (Also buying slowly the missing minis and dyes - if they are in rotation - from the TP. The higher tier ones. A bit of the remaining ones I buy to slowly go for completion.) Maybee 1-2 extra openings if I get keys from a sale where they come with other stuff. (Like Supply drop - will we get one for JW? I have samed my gems waiting a bit ...)

Never bought keys directly. (I might if my remainign 16 ones - from playing the 9 chars I had ... no key running - get empty. Then maybe every now and then a set of 5 if they are on sale on the gem store to stock up a bit.)