WV impact on Mystic Coin prices is minimal

[Danikat.8537]

Ever since the Wizard's Vault (WV) was announced there's been a lot of concern about the impact it will have on Mystic Coin prices, since login rewards, and now the WV is one of the major sources of new coins entering the game. We've reached a point where I think enough time has passed to look at what that impact is (and also I had time to annotate a graph and write this up) and I think that impact is minimal. (The tl;dr version of this post is the second graph below.)

All this data is from https://www.gw2tp.com/item/19976-mystic-coin?full=1 which uses the API to automatically track the Trading Post prices of items. You can go there and check out the interactive graph if you want to check anything I've said or get more details. Throughout this post I'm just refering to sell prices for simplicity, the interactive graph also shows buy prices, so it will be especially useful if you want to compare the two.

First some important context: here is the graph of mystic coin prices across the entire lifetime of the game:

One useful thing to note is that the price peaked (at 2g 50s 95c) in March 2021 and then dropped relatively rapidly from October 2021 to September 2022, reaching a low of 73s 57c - a price not seen since September 2016. Since then it's been climbing, coming close to (but not reaching) the previous peak.

Now here's the same graph zoomed in to show the period from January 2023 to today (23rd June 2024), annotated with the dates the WV was announced, released and the 3 seasonal refreshes (when new items, including new Mystic Coins) were added. I went back to January 2023 for context - specifically showing that the price had been rising steadily before the WV was announced and the price rise after that is not dramatically different, although there's more fluctuations.

Here's some things I think are interesting:
The price jumped up slightly (from 1g 41s 85c to 1g 55s 58c) when the WV was announced - before any changes had been made to the supply of coins into the game, so this was driven by speculation. Interestingly demand for coins barely changed (I didn't include demand in the graph because it looks like a flat line throughout, with one jump on 8th September 2023) and the supply actually went up (you can see that in the graph above). I suspect that was mystic coin sellers removing their coins and relisting them at a higher price, hoping for increased demand.

The price then drops rapidly after SotO and the WV is released, presumably because everyone found out the number you can get per month is not that different. (The login rewards gave 20 per month, the WV gives 60 per season, and seasons have been roughly 3 months long.)

The one I find really interesting is that when the first WV refresh happens with the release of Through the Veil on the 7th November 2023...nothing happens. The price on the 6th November is 1g 65s 35c and the price on the 14th is 1g 66s 35c which is entirely within normal fluctuations. The price did start rising around the 2nd December, but I suspect that was related to Wintersday given it peaked on 24th January 2024 (at 2g 35s 47c).

We do see a slight dip in price with the 2nd and 3rd WV refreshes, but nothing outside the range of normal fluctuations. (Realm of Dreams dropped it from 2g 18s 49c to 1g 97s 65c and The Midnight King dropped it from 2g 12s 52c to 1g 96s 79c. We can see similar fluctuations at other times, which are unlikely to be related to the WV, so I don't think it's having more of an impact than anything else in the economy.

I have to admit this surprised me. I was a bit annoyed when I started doing this because I genuinely expected to set the graph up and see obvious peaks or troughs relating to each WV refresh. Instead I had to dig through announcements to find the dates and plot them onto the graph to even see when the refreshes happened. Whether it's good news or bad news that there's no predictable times when prices will rise or fall depends on your perspective, but I thought it was interesting that we've not seen the cycle many people predicted would happen as a result of the new acquisition method.

Edited June 23 by Danikat.8537
Finishing the post

[Cernoch.8524]

March 2021 is when certain someone who was keeping MC prices up was banned I believe.

It is not really WV that affect the MC prices but we see that it went up in price by like 40-60 silvers (depending on the season time) but its due to some people with alts giving up cause it is a little bit more work now. Also when season is longer we see the lack of MCs and price going up, which unfortunately we did not have with old daily system, 20 every month was 100% while now it is not because some season are shorter and some longer. Hopefully Anet will stay consistent with their releases.

Nice topic :).

[Gop.8713]

If we're explaining the January peak with wintersday, I'm concerned that the coins remained at an elevated price after wintersday was over. But otoh I don't really care, my coins go in to mat storage and I never really use them for anything anyway . . .

[Player.2475]

I wish Anet would just add more sources of Mystic Coins if they are going to insist that every end-game recipe has to cost tons of mystic coins, ectos or clovers (which require the former). For people who have been hoarding or farming them it must be nice that they are worth more than 70s but it'd be great if Gen 2's didn't cost almost twice as much as any other legendary weapon just because of the Mystic Coins alone.

[SuavePuppy.2809]

3 hours ago, Cernoch.8524 said:

March 2021 is when certain someone who was keeping MC prices up was banned I believe

It's wild how much they affected the market

[Remus Darkblight.1673]

The only reason WV leads to slight fluctuations around each release is that although the overall supply is approximately the same 60/~3Mo vs 20/Mo, with each WV refresh that 60 can potentially get dumped into the economy quicker than a more steady supply because you can just buy all 60 right away. It's great for people looking to make money by tactically playing the TP, knowing when a potential supply is going to enter the market, and then sell higher to impatient people a little before the WV refresh. I am surprised though that the effect isn't more pronounced.

As demonstrated by the graphs, other seasonal changes (Wintersday) and independent events (that certain banning, or the introduction of a new chase item) have a much greater effect on the prices than the quarterly influx of additional coins.

[Astralporing.1957]

@Danikat.8537

One thing that should be done when comparing the supply and demand graphs is to look at actual values. The graphs show the totality of buy and sell orders, but they do not show howmany of those are completely bogus. For example, demand looks like a flat line because there are 10 million buy orders at 2 and 3 copper. With sell orders this is smaller (likely because you do pay tax for posting them), but there's still a large amount of those at values that are significantly higher than the current price.

Also, it's interesting how you say "WV did not impact the Mystic Coins much" and then compare the current situation to one where MC prices were manipulated by a cheater to a degree where his ban caused them to drop massively. Notice, that if there is indeed some market manipulation going on again, it does not seem to be so blatantly visible as it was then (which means we cannot blame said hypothetical market manipulation for prices rising to the same degree we could then).

Edited June 24 by Astralporing.1957

[DanAlcedo.3281]

In order for the price to drop, people would need to start selling their Mc's. 

I personally Hoard all I can get. I don't need them now, but who knows what the future brings. 

I see Mc's as simply to valueable of a crafting material to ever sell them. Not with all the money I can get otherwise. 

And most people I know Hoard their Mc's for the same reason. 

Who knows when you gonna need them. 

[Ashen.2907]

Increasing supply will not necessarily have a major impact if demand goes up as well. I know quite a few people who have engaged with legendary crafting due to the WV kits. I imagine that there are a lot of people making more legendaries now than before the WV.

[Cyninja.2954]

The largest impact on Mystic Coin price is from the easier accessibility to legendary items. That legendary starter kit really does a number on getting more players to go for a legendary.

This in turn increases demand on resources going into those legendarys (it's not only Mystic Coins being up but also all T3-6 materials for example. Ecto are up even more due to the huge amount required for SotO legendary armor).

Now add in the open world legendary armor, which has had a large demand on players which do not raid, spvp or wvw and you get even more demand.

Quote

I have to admit this surprised me. I was a bit annoyed when I started doing this because I genuinely expected to set the graph up and see obvious peaks or troughs relating to each WV refresh. Instead I had to dig through announcements to find the dates and plot them onto the graph to even see when the refreshes happened. Whether it's good news or bad news that there's no predictable times when prices will rise or fall depends on your perspective, but I thought it was interesting that we've not seen the cycle many people predicted would happen as a result of the new acquisition method.

This just points towards market efficiency and events already being priced in with fluctuations happening around unexpected events (like bonus mystic coins from achievements or events entering the economy either as MC or strait up as Mystic Clovers). Yes, the WV reset happens ever 2.5-3 months, and most players know about that (though not all might alter their spending/purchases around this fact).

Most importantly: Mystic Coins have become a less safe "currency" to horde, which is a good thing because this means they see more trade instead of stockpiling. A huge factor of why prices went where they were in the past (besides the market manipulation by 1 individual) was due to players hoarding MC no matter if they needed them or not because the price would only go up.

TL;DR:

More players making legendary items has had a significant impact on the games economy. This in turn has reinvigorated other aspects of the games economy (more gem purchases and conversion into gold for purchase of materials for example). It is not necessarily unhealthy for prices to be up, it depends on which side of the market you are operating on. Players selling materials or crafting items are likely not complaining atm.

Edited June 24 by Cyninja.2954

[Danikat.8537]

On 6/23/2024 at 10:26 PM, Gop.8713 said:

If we're explaining the January peak with wintersday, I'm concerned that the coins remained at an elevated price after wintersday was over. But otoh I don't really care, my coins go in to mat storage and I never really use them for anything anyway . . .

I don't know that it was because of Wintersday, that was just my assumption because the price increase roughly coincided with the festival. If anyone has any other ideas I'd like to hear them.
 

On 6/24/2024 at 10:02 AM, Astralporing.1957 said:

@Danikat.8537

One thing that should be done when comparing the supply and demand graphs is to look at actual values. The graphs show the totality of buy and sell orders, but they do not show howmany of those are completely bogus. For example, demand looks like a flat line because there are 10 million buy orders at 2 and 3 copper. With sell orders this is smaller (likely because you do pay tax for posting them), but there's still a large amount of those at values that are significantly higher than the current price.

Also, it's interesting how you say "WV did not impact the Mystic Coins much" and then compare the current situation to one where MC prices were manipulated by a cheater to a degree where his ban caused them to drop massively. Notice, that if there is indeed some market manipulation going on again, it does not seem to be so blatantly visible as it was then (which means we cannot blame said hypothetical market manipulation for prices rising to the same degree we could then).

I wasn't aiming to compare it to some time period when I thought coins were at the correct price as some kind of control period, that would be cherry-picking data to create a narrative. I just wanted to start the graph a while before the WV was announced to show that there was an existing upward trend which cannot have been related to the WV, and the start of the year seemed like a logical choice.

But also if the price drop in October 2021 was caused by Anet stopping market manipulation doesn't that mean the price rise precceding it was caused by that market manipulation? If so what time should I have picked for a comparison? Prices had been rising since 2015 and considering there's been some pretty significant changes in how mystic coins are obtained and what they're used for since then (especially legendary crafting) I don't think it would be accurate to compare the price before 2015 to what it is now.

To be clear: I'm not saying there isn't market manipulation, but that's a seperate factor to the WV. If anything that reinforces my point that other factors have more of an impact than the WV.

[Rauderi.8706]

We'd lower a lot of demand for Coins if they'd fix the Clovers. Two approaches that could easily do it:

1. Re-work the table for the Toilet and add in a pity counter. Change the result of the formula from [random item OR Clover] to [Mystic Coffer]. Coffer has drops from a (better) list of items (like bigger piles of t5/6 mats, ecto) and a guaranteed Clover-related drop: Either a full Clover or a Clover Leaf. Take four Leaves and some spirit shard materials to fuse them into a Clover.

Less resources spent on clovers frees up Coin demand. 

2. A secondary Vault option after the 60AA clovers are bought out. Make them cost 300AA (like most of the limited goods, the price jumps 5x-7x, so it'd be a fair deal). Players buying the 300AA Clovers also don't pump as much liquid gold into the market from the 6AA/35AA gold buys. 

[Cyninja.2954]

7 hours ago, Rauderi.8706 said:

We'd lower a lot of demand for Coins if they'd fix the Clovers. Two approaches that could easily do it:

1. Re-work the table for the Toilet and add in a pity counter. Change the result of the formula from [random item OR Clover] to [Mystic Coffer]. Coffer has drops from a (better) list of items (like bigger piles of t5/6 mats, ecto) and a guaranteed Clover-related drop: Either a full Clover or a Clover Leaf. Take four Leaves and some spirit shard materials to fuse them into a Clover.

Less resources spent on clovers frees up Coin demand. 

2. A secondary Vault option after the 60AA clovers are bought out. Make them cost 300AA (like most of the limited goods, the price jumps 5x-7x, so it'd be a fair deal). Players buying the 300AA Clovers also don't pump as much liquid gold into the market from the 6AA/35AA gold buys. 

You are assuming the developers want to affect this in this way.

FYI: if players don't want to roll the dice on the mystic toilette, they can use the guaranteed recipes. Trying to get lucky with rng while asking for a pitty counter just shifts the reward pay out.

The 300 aa choice makes no sense (technically that falls in line with some of the WV offers) but at 300 aa you are looking at over 8g per clover (at the worst aa to gold conversionrate). In that case you definitely can use the guaranteed recipes or roll the dice. 

In my opinion all it takes is for the developers to occasionally offer Mystic Coins via events, thus reducing the hoarding approach. We know from past communication that more Mystic Coins used to enter the games economy than ones consumed.

[Astralporing.1957]

9 minutes ago, Cyninja.2954 said:

In my opinion all it takes is for the developers to occasionally offer Mystic Coins via events, thus reducing the hoarding approach. We know from past communication that more Mystic Coins used to enter the games economy than ones consumed.

Indeed, the main problem with MCs was never the overall supply. It was always about the individual supply/farming capability. Since the ability to actively farm MCs is heavily restricted, and amounts you need not only outstrip your ability to quickly farm them, but also deplete your long-term storage at fast rate, you are inevitably pushed towards buying them. It also means most players will hoard them instead of selling even if the price is high. Or, rather, especially when price is high. This is generally compounded by MCs being considered a good investment. That assumption has been broken once, when certain cheater got banned (and for a while we could see their real worth), but Anet followup and Vault changes reassured players again. Unless something significantly changes, players will keep being encouraged to hoard MCs, which will severely reduce the supply. That will keep increasing the price, which will encourage hoarding them even more - creating a vicious cycle that cannot be broken on its own.

[Gehenna.3625]

On 6/24/2024 at 1:30 PM, Cyninja.2954 said:

TL;DR:

More players making legendary items has had a significant impact on the games economy. This in turn has reinvigorated other aspects of the games economy (more gem purchases and conversion into gold for purchase of materials for example). It is not necessarily unhealthy for prices to be up, it depends on which side of the market you are operating on. Players selling materials or crafting items are likely not complaining atm.

Exactly this. The OP argues that the WV hasn't impacted the price of MCs, even though at the start of SoTO it was around 1.5 gold and now it sits around 2 gold, which I do find a significant increase and I think that the legendary kits should've been in the the original post. Also the announcement of spears probably has had some effect recently; and I do suspect that Anet probably is happy for MCs to sit around the 2g mark.