What will happen?

[Tumult.2578]

Having played for a long time, I have been watching the value of precursors drop steadily. These precursors are for the first set of Legendary Weapons and the second set doesn't have precursors and are new, so it's reasonable to expect the new set to be more popular. Whats concerning me is the size of the drop in value of precursors. Why should we continue to save rare weapons and keep putting four in the mystic forge to try for a precursor when they have become almost worthless and certainly no longer worth the value of the rares that go into the mystic forge?Wont this have a significant impact on the general economy if a large group of players all of a sudden realize this fact and start selling everything instead of "investing those rares" in an effort to obtain a precursor? I don't think this is chump change we're talking about here.Maybe it won't have much impact. I may be overestimating how much of this is done, but I sure would like some feedback on this. My experience is that I can make 3 to 4 precursors in the mystic forge for every one I get in loot. That tells me there should be a significant number of players using the mystic forge method. What do you think?

[Tanner Blackfeather.6509]

If people stop gambling for precursors, they will start increasing in price as the supply decreases, since there is obviously still a demand for them.

Yes, the price of Rares will be impacted, likely going down. Making some (the same or others) consider it worth gambling for precursors again.

[Blocki.4931]

Well it's nice you get them out of the forge or as drop, most people aren't that lucky. Over my 4000 hours I got exactly none. The price for them simply goes down because the supply is steadily increasing, with little people actually wanting to go for them. The majority of the legendary cost comes from upgrading the precursor anyway.

[mercury ranique.2170]

The price is often depending on supply and demand. There are always new players, but more and more existing players got a legendary, this means a drop in demand, while supply mostly stays the same as long as it is profitable to gamble.

[Tumult.2578]

That is my concern. I believe we have reached the point where it's not financially worth it to put rares in the mystic forge. This means my wealth will greatly increase.If many others wealth also increases, how can that not affect the economy significantly?

[Illconceived Was Na.9781]

@"Tumult.2578" said:That is my concern. I believe we have reached the point where it's not financially worth it to put rares in the mystic forge. This means my wealth will greatly increase.If many others wealth also increases, how can that not affect the economy significantly?

It's never been economically viable to put rares in the forge unless you do so in bulk. In large numbers, you get average results and can bank on profiting. In small numbers, the drop rate is so low that below-average streaks last long enough to prevent profit. That was true at launch.

Further: the current value of Zap is around 400 gold. That's above the price it was for the first year of the game. 18 months ago, the price was around 550 gold, so while it's gone down (largely as a result of the insane loot one can get from spending a day in Dragonfall), it's not "worthless;" it's simply worth less than before.

Also note: rares cost less, so the price of throwing four rares into the forge has shrunk as well.

Regardless, it's inevitable that the price will go down. The number of people who want and don't yet own various legendaries only goes up when there's a sudden influx of players. It will always shrink: people stop playing, people acquire the legendary they want. Meantime, the supply grows, from random drops as well as forges.

And finally, the economy does not care in the least if this niche or that dries up. The TP covers a vast array of items; as long as people are playing that want something, there will be profitable and viable markets. Some of those markets will die and new ones will take their place.

[Tumult.2578]

I should have included the part about in bulk. That is absolutely the case. Personally, I save rares until I have 4 of the same weapon type before I MF them. I also play two accounts contributing rares, so I can put 1 to 2 dozen rares in a day. Less would reduce the chances for a precursor too much. It's expensive regardless and not a long term profitable endeavor in any case.As far as costs go, I don't see how cheaper rares now and having precursors more expensive at the start, affects today's impact on a large number of players not throwing a whole lot of credits into the MF. It kind of looks like it's a long term goal to replace precursors in favor of more earnable rewards. That's fine. Precursors have steadily dropped in cost and if the number of them available goes down due to fewer players MFing rares, the cost will go back up due to unavailability. But, that does not address the impact of a significant increase in player wealth, which is certainly possible now that precursors have dropped so low.

It's not the continued existence of precursors that concerns me, it's the fast increase of player wealth that might occur and what it would do to the economy...

[Anchoku.8142]

I do not see a problem, here. The price of precursors is defined by the cost to supply as well as demand.

[starlinvf.1358]

Another thing to consider is that the Precursor crafting sets a ceiling for Gen1s, since those are reliable enough to provide supply. The catch 22 is that the value of Gen 1s are now completely driven by the price of materials; and once it hit equilibrium, suppliers don't make enough profit to be worth the effort investment. The items (both pres and unbound legendaries) can still act as wealth conversion, by condensing it into the item to be sold.... but its degree of efficiency is determined by the value of the non-tradable components.

All other concerns directly radiate FROM the demand from the demand of these end products. For instance, the value of rares and dust is directly connected to the value of Ectos. The Mid-tier mats used in Asc crafting is determined by the demand for Asc Gear. Other materials have their price fluctuate based on the popularity of Sinks vs the rates they can be farmed. Festivals that offer material rewards will nose dive those prices as the market gets flooded with them. Conversely, if a Sink is tied to some high demand reward/cosmetic, the prices of materials being sunk will sky rocket.

The game has a huge number of material conversion paths, or straight up wealth conversion, each with some efficiency rating (most commonly at a small loss). Having RNG in the system doesn't change that rule, it merely incorporates the averages into its efficiency calculations.

Another consideration thats been totally unmentioned at this point is Inflation/deflation. Excess gold in the market increases the price of everything. As the the cheaper listings on the TP are within reach, they'll be bought up, moving more expensive listings into the best offer positions. The relative value of items is thus based on demand, but the scale of pricing is based on inflation.

[SoftFootpaws.9134]

One thing to understand this this: Many people who go for legendaries do not buy the precursors.

Think about it, you're working on the hardest item in the game, why would you put down a few hundred gold on a precursor when you can go the extra mile and do it "properly" with the collections ? Maybe if its your second time or something, but.

Some of them are (arguably) cheaper off the TP, but that's not the point of questing for something challenging. The truth is, if someone wants a legendary fast, they're going to buy it directly off the TP with real money, not waste gold buying just a precursor.

Their supply will inevitably increase with there being other ways to obtain them.

[Illconceived Was Na.9781]

@"Tumult.2578" said:I can put 1 to 2 dozen rares in a day.

Call it 20 rares per day, which is 5 forges or 150 forges a month. That's not what I call "forging in bulk" The drop rate of precursors from exotics is below 1%. For rares, it takes nearly 800 attempts before getting one (on average). Religiously forging only "1-2 dozen rares a day", it would be 6-7 months before (on average) between precursors and 5-6 years before I'd call it "forging in bulk."

The primary source of most of our data, a redditor who stopped playing a while back... their sessions included 1000s of forges (that particular one had gaps between precursors of 654, 42, 203, 663, & 511, for an average of ~414 attempts per legend). Another poster in one of their threads had the same average from forging a total of 30 precursors, with their longest gap being just under 3700 attempts. To which Nugkill replied: yuck and that his worst gap was 12k attempts.

Which is why one needs 1000s and 1000s of attempts to see average results. The Law of Large Numbers just doesn't work until, you know, the numbers are large.

[Tumult.2578]

Ok, the economy is too large and multi-faceted for it to be significantly impacted by even a big reduction in the Forge money sink. I may have overestimated the impact because I thought the forge was used more heavily. I made the precursors a goal near the start and started feeding the forge seriously about 6 years ago but my luck is not nearly as good as that Primary Source, by about two thirds. Biggest gap was 7 months or about 850 attempts which ended in forging a Carcharias and then another the next day. But, It's a serious loss, long term. Fortunately, luck has been kinder in loot. Even got one from the converter Princess.I'd say roughly 8k attempts, for 19 precursors, which fits the given definition of Large, but not the success rate.

[Ultramex.1506]

Dang it! I should have pay more attention to current precursor drop, wasted 280g instead on gems