Black Lion Chest Key drop on map complete

[Tekoneiric.6817]

Is the Black Lion Chest Key drop on map complete disabled? I've done quite a few high level map completes on an alt account (HoT/PoF/LWS3/LWS4) and haven't had a key drop in awhile. I think I got one early on but none since.

[Teratus.2859]

Nope, got 2 of them quite recently for map completion.

I believe they are more commonly dropped on the starter maps though I can't confirm that.From my experience I get them a lot more often on those maps than any others.

[Tekoneiric.6817]

@Teratus.2859 said:Nope, got 2 of them quite recently for map completion.

I believe they are more commonly dropped on the starter maps though I can't confirm that.From my experience I get them a lot more often on those maps than any others.

Odd because on my main account I've always gotten them as random map complete drops on higher level maps not lower level ones.

[Teratus.2859]

@Tekoneiric.6817 said:

@Teratus.2859 said:Nope, got 2 of them quite recently for map completion.

I believe they are more commonly dropped on the starter maps though I can't confirm that.From my experience I get them a lot more often on those maps than any others.

Odd because on my main account I've always gotten them as random map complete drops on higher level maps not lower level ones.

It's probably a static chance on all maps like Jayden said.I just tend have more luck on starter maps so it installs that gamer brain thing that convinces you of something like turning the controller in a racing game makes you turn sharper XDOr in pokemon.. mashing the button after throwing a pokeball makes the ball more effective lolIt's not true, you know it's not true but you still believe it anyway :D

[Randulf.7614]

It's just bad luck. If it helps, I haven't had one from a map completion in a long, long, long, long time

[Illconceived Was Na.9781]

tl;dr there's no evidence that the rates have changed

@"Tekoneiric.6817" said:Is the Black Lion Chest Key drop on map complete disabled? I've done quite a few high level map completes on an alt account (HoT/PoF/LWS3/LWS4) and haven't had a key drop in awhile. I think I got one early on but none since.

What does "awhile" mean? 5 maps? 10? more? There's not any "good" data on drop rates, because reports tend to be self-selected for extraordinary results (people who don't get any or people who got a lot, rather than everyone completing maps). With that caveat, estimates range from 20% to 33% chance. There's all sorts of speculation as to whether chances are greater in L80 maps or expansion maps or...

Let's take the 20% number and translate your "awhile" into 20 maps. The chances that you won't get a single key are just over 1%. That makes it unlucky, but not extraordinarily so. Given how many people have completed 20+ maps, it would be surprising if there weren't lots of people going 20-in-a-row without a key (assuming those are the odds).

If the odds are 33%, then the chance of no keys in 20 tries are just above 3/100%, i.e. really low. Still, that's not so low that someone won't be suffering odds that bad.

The lesson is that no matter how few keys any one us gets, we don't generally do enough maps to determine whether the rate has changed.

[SoftFootpaws.9134]

I think they might also have lowered it not long ago because the value became too high with the Black Lion Statuette changes. The original drop rates were implemented with the knowledge that the chests were 100% RNG, but now they aren't.

For example, a key gives you guaranteed two transmutation charges, but normal map complete only gives one.

[MithranArkanere.8957]

For some people it feels as low as 1/3 chance. Others will tell you it seems more like 1/20.

[Illconceived Was Na.9781]

@Hannelore.8153 said:I think they might also have lowered it not long ago because the value became too high with the Black Lion Statuette changes.I'd be very interested in any data you have (or comments from ANet) that support this. All the evidence I've seen to date suggests no changes to the drop rate (with the exception of ANet disabling it entirely for ~a day, to fix an exploit).

[Random Wax Orc.7695]

Purely from my anecdotal experience, it feels like it started at 1/3 when the game released, and eventually changed to 1/4 then more recently to 1/5. I am actually not concerned with any decrease in key drop rates because my opinion of the value of the keys has dropped in a similar fashion.

[Luthan.5236]

The last few maps I completed (3 on my mesmer on the way to level 60 for next story step, 1 on my warrior - also between level 50 and 60 ... I think it was Harathi Hinterlands) got me a key. I was surprised about that high drop rate. But I guess the next 100 or so will again only give transmutatoin stone. :D Must have been lucky.

[JonONeill.3910]

I've taken two characters through map completions recently and gotten, I think, three keys total. It feels worse but streaks happen. Transmutation Stones galore, though. Got a couple hundred of those now.

[hugo.4705]

Did world completion 7 times, each got a key every 2-3 maps (majority 2) in my case rate around 40%. Through I don't have any key farmer. I wonder if your key dropping once map completed varies depending on the fact you have key runners or not like an algorythm: "ohhh that player got 6 keys from weekly farms that's a lot! Here is your chance for map completion! 20%!" "No key farm? Cool 60% for you!" Dunno.

[Inculpatus cedo.9234]

Did a key run 2 days ago; of course, received a key.
Read this thread, and it incentivized me to do a map completion. Found a map 73% completed on my Guardian (Fireheart Rise), proceeded to complete it this morning, and....received a key.Nothing of note (5 Transmutation Charges and 2 Material Bags) from the BL Key, but I did receive one.

[Illconceived Was Na.9781]

I wonder if your key dropping once map completed varies depending on the fact you have key runners or not like an algorythm: "ohhh that player got 6 keys from weekly farms that's a lot! Here is your chance for map completion! 20%!" "No key farm? Cool 60% for you!" Dunno.

There's no evidence that is the case.

It's also less plausible. It is trickier to program and maintain a complex algorithm over a simple one, especially when the existing mechanic has been in place since the game launched. We've seen time & again where ANet is reluctant to fix certain types of issues because it would involve adjusting older code (written with older tools, and with interactions that no one remembers) because of the risk of breaking something else. Unless there's a powerful economic reason, why would ANet tempt fate by tinkering with the odds?

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Generally speaking, when there are a bunch of competing theories, scientists tend to start with the simplest until/unless they are forced to rule it out:

• The simple theory (in those cases) offers the same predictive power as the complex ones.
• It's easier/faster to use to predict/test results.

That doesn't guarantee that it's the "right" theory; it just says, "why overthink it without a reason?"