What's with glitched weapon drop rate?

[friggarn.5360]

0/28 now.. I'll just buy the set, I'll just fund everyone farming them -- keep the price down boys!

[Guest]

Finally got a second drop (2/45)... and it's the same weapon I got before. 94% chance for a different one and I get the exact same thing. sigh

[Sylanna.1947]

I'm curious if anyone else has noticed the drop rate tank significantly since the first few days (stealth nerf?), or if I am just having some bad RNG. The first 4 days I opened all 6 chests each day and had 4 weapons from 24 chests, which was a drop rate of almost 17%. Since then, I've opened all 6 chests for 7 days and have received 1 weapon from 42 chests, which is about 2%. I was either really lucky the first few days, or really unlucky the last 7 if nothing was changed behind the scenes.

Also the price of 257 bauble bubbles (64,250 baubles) + 10 gold seems excessive for one weapon when the TP prices aren't that much more for gold alone.

[Memoranda.9386]

@Jayden Reese.9542 said:

@"Sylanna.1947" said:I'm curious if anyone else has noticed the drop rate tank significantly since the first few days (stealth nerf?), or if I am just having some bad RNG. The first 4 days I opened all 6 chests each day and had 4 weapons from 24 chests, which was a drop rate of almost 17%. Since then, I've opened all 6 chests for 7 days and have received 1 weapon from 42 chests, which is about 2%. I was either really lucky the first few days, or really unlucky the last 7 if nothing was changed behind the scenes.

Also the price of 257 bauble bubbles (64,250 baubles) + 10 gold seems excessive for one weapon when the TP prices aren't that much more for gold alone.

Rng is random. Once you understand that you don't go oh did they stealth nerf rng because now my random rng is bad. No one comes here when they beat rng and get 3 outta 6 one day going did they stealth increase drop rates? It's only when you hit the random cold streak and then need to see if others are on a random cold streak to feel better.

It does "feel" somewhat adjusted. My friend group and I do glitched chests daily, probably 20 in total, and none of us have gotten a weapon drop in 4 days, whereas the first few days we had over 20 drops collectively.

In summation: aliens.

[nosleepdemon.1368]

I wouldn't be surprised if it was altered, or if market supply drives drop rate. GW 2 has a very closely monitored and controlled economy, with many cleverly designed methods of acquiring and sinking gold. A concept that's worth drawing attention to is the idea of volatility, in the slot machine world, this refers to the ratio of high paying prizes to low paying prizes while maintaining the same overall return to player. A slot machine with high volatility will payout fewer but much more valuable prizes. However it's perfectly possible to go on winning streaks even on a high volatility machine. The drop rate for glitched weapons may be rather low, much lower than what is indicated here from the small sample size we have. Players posting about experiencing a sudden glut in drops may actually just be seeing the more realistic chance of acquiring a weapon after experiencing a winning streak.

[Memoranda.9386]

@Jayden Reese.9542 said:

@Memoranda.9386 said:

@Jayden Reese.9542 said:

@"Sylanna.1947" said:I'm curious if anyone else has noticed the drop rate tank significantly since the first few days (stealth nerf?), or if I am just having some bad RNG. The first 4 days I opened all 6 chests each day and had 4 weapons from 24 chests, which was a drop rate of almost 17%. Since then, I've opened all 6 chests for 7 days and have received 1 weapon from 42 chests, which is about 2%. I was either really lucky the first few days, or really unlucky the last 7 if nothing was changed behind the scenes.

Also the price of 257 bauble bubbles (64,250 baubles) + 10 gold seems excessive for one weapon when the TP prices aren't that much more for gold alone.

Rng is random. Once you understand that you don't go oh did they stealth nerf rng because now my random rng is bad. No one comes here when they beat rng and get 3 outta 6 one day going did they stealth increase drop rates? It's only when you hit the random cold streak and then need to see if others are on a random cold streak to feel better.

It does "feel" somewhat adjusted. My friend group and I do glitched chests daily, probably 20 in total, and none of us have gotten a weapon drop in 4 days, whereas the first few days we had over 20 drops collectively.

In summation: aliens.

Yeah or you can go the conspiracy route some are now. Of course that won't explain the 2-45 and 0-32 in the thread who somehow missed out on the high drop rates at the beginning before the "ninja nerf" that most likely didn't happen and if it did we will never get confirmation on

I blame the Choya miners.

[Ashantara.8731]

I have received many more since the last time I posted on behalf of this subject, so I believe the drop rate is decent. :+1:

[Guest]

@Rasimir.6239 said:

@"Kunzaito.8169" said:(Glitched Chest loots first)Even that is unspecified. I've had runs where the glitched chest looted first, and others (same and different bosses, same and different days) where the regular boss chest looted first. I guess it's a question of how the game determins which chest is closer/first to interact with, which might be undetermined/random for the nested chests.

Ok, so this is probably just coincidence, but today I tested something with this because I am pretty sure I always or nearly always looted the Glitched Chest first when approaching the chests and just pressing F.

The first world, I deliberately selected the Glitched chest first. Nothing. The second world, I deliberately selected the other chest first. Got a weapon from the Glitched Chest. So I repeated it again in world three - deliberately selected the daily first, then the glitched. Got a weapon again.

I am sure it can't be manipulated that easily but... I'll be superstitious and do it that way again tomorrow now that my luck has turned. :p

---

UPDATE: Yeah, 0/4 today. No trick, just a blip of good luck. :/

[Wisty.4135]

@nosleepdemon.1368 said:

@Wisty.4135 said:

@"Linken.6345" said:w2z2 take short cut eagle then jump off a ledge to get put at checkpoint just before the glitch point spawn dont make it overly long tho.Same with w2z3 in infentaile you just have to run on rainbows abit.

I got the glitched collection complete, as a preface.

But yeah, it's 2-2 and 2-3 I don't do. I just don't do those zones at all. Ground out the trib mode skins for last year and said "no thanks" to doing them again this year. I hate them with a passion. 2-1 is fast enough to do in like 4-5 minutes, but the other two? Nah, not worth an extra continue coin and a ~20% chance at a cheap skin I already have.

I got really efficient at zone 3 by the time I was done, but the God. kitten. Goats. Oh my God. kitten them in their every incarnation.

Haha, yeah. I mean, this is true! I got efficient at trib, but like... I suppose the biggest part of it comes down to the zones themselves not being fun, no matter how fast I can zoom thru 'em now.

But screw the goats. Wait, no don-

[Luthan.5236]

I got 7 skins so far. Except the first 2 days or so I did full runs (6 chests) every day until now. The 2nd skin was the first I got twice. Now I can sell it ... or wait.The prices don't seem to drop further now (at least for that skin I checked - torch it was).

My guess is that less people are doing the chests after finishing the achievement. Maybe the prices will go up after the festival is over. (For the normal super adventure skins according to TP history websites it went down slowly over the years with always being super low during the festival but then stablizing at a higher price which was a bit lower than the year before.)

Bauble bubble cost for the chest really seems imbalanced compared to the TP prices. They might fix the drop rate or the price for next year's festival.

[SexyMofo.8923]

0/32. 0% drop rate for me.

[lubos.7243]

0/25. Solid 0% drop rate.

[friggarn.5360]

0/34 now. Worst I've seen in here, 1st worst!

[WDBoldstar.7649]

FWIW, my achievement says I'm at 26 glitched chests opened, and I have only gotten 2 glitched weapons from them, the first not until the 18th open or so. So I'm a bit on the low side, but I have gotten a few.

[Ashantara.8731]

@Ashantara.8731 said:I have received many more since the last time I posted on behalf of this subject, so I believe the drop rate is decent. :+1:

By now, I believe the drop rate was increased, because I got plenty in the past couple of days. :)

[Avenrise.3592]

Obviously a small sample size but I'm averaging 1 per 10 boxes roughly (can't remember total # but missed maybe 10-15 boxes and have 7 skins so far)

[Oogabooga.3812]

Seems to be about a 10% drop rate for me. I’ll get about 1 every other day.

[regilyor.3152]

It took me over 40 chests before I got my first glitched weapon drop, after I'd finished the 'mercy' achievement. And because RNG is RNG my next drop was in the very next chest.

Assuming I'm doing the maths right, I've now opened 78 chests and had 6 drops, 1 of those a duplicate. While I was getting incredibly frustrated for all those days doing all the levels with nothing to show for it, I'm happier now that my unlucky streak is over and my drop rate is starting to average out at what everyone else seems to be getting.

[Opimer.2758]

Some people say that you get much more glitched weapons if you are only 2. Does someone know if it's true ?

[Lesser.6495]

I have opened about 50 to 60 chests so far and recieved 4 weapons, so it is an about 7% chance and decreasing for me. And of course these 4 are in the top 5 of the least value weapons on the BL market (mace, dagger, shortbow, pistol). My 5th weapon will be probably the guaranteed one from the achievement chest :/

[Etria.3642]

I just went and bought the ones I was missing, and picked the most expensive one I was missing from the chest. Still need a staff and lonbow but eh. Eventually either I will get them or get enough others to sell and then buy them.

[DAN.7314]

I am at 7 weapons out of 94 chests so far. Might be a few more than 94, but I think I only did all 6 glitched chests the first day, and then 4 every other day.

[Andovar Edoras.2143]

I do about 4 to 5 glitch chests per day. (Skipping w2z2 glitch, z3 in babymode). Currently sitting at 6 glitch weapons+2 duplicates, a blue skin and a kaiser skin. One of the glitch skins came from babymode so clearly no change in droprates there, much easier to get the w2z3 one like this.

[Avenrise.3592]

@Thereon.3495 said:Obviously a small sample size but I'm averaging 1 per 10 boxes roughly (can't remember total # but missed maybe 10-15 boxes and have 7 skins so far)

Since this post I've opened 48 chests, have got just 2 skins. Its obviously RNG but my 10% estimate is falling like a rock in the ocean :#

[Tumult.2578]

With 2 paid accounts each doing 3 glitched chests over each of the past 24 days, one has 11 glitched weapons, the other has 6.Has there been any speculation as to the impact of group size? The account with 11 is basically solo and the one with 6 is basically in groups.