Black Lion Chest drop - star sentinel outfit

[Seraphina.5947]

after patch update, (about 6hr) i saw the outfit the decide open chest with all keys i saved about 36 of them. and didn't get the outfit.  then also saw some youtuber spend 30+key didn't get this outfit. just wonder if anyone got this outfit and how many keys they spend on it. 

I was even question at one point that item didn't even add to the loot tablet. 36 keys for uncommon item... seem like drop rate is low. 

[Batel.9206]

Random is random. Some people get the exclusive item on the first go, others spend 100+ keys and still don't get it.

You can wait a few months and buy it outright for Black Lion Statuettes when it becomes available.

Edited February 3 by Batel.9206

[QueenKeriti.5176]

^

It took me 76 keys to get the Phoenix torch, and something like 57 to get the wings. Then another time, I get the featured item in 2 keys.

RNGesus is mean.

[eyelogix.1654]

Some stuff I've gotten on the first try, while other time I've got nothing or a BL skin.

[Tiamat.8254]

When people realise that black lion chests are loot boxes and opening then equates to gambling.

[Danikat.8537]

I got it. It took me 20 keys, including a gold black lion key (which guarentees an uncommon or better item - that got me a weapon skin I already had), but of course that's blind luck. Other times I've used 50+ keys and not gotten the item I wanted. Every time I open black lion chests it's a good reminder of why I never buy the keys. (I save up any free ones I get, and only use them when there's something I really want.)

I assume Anet expect most people to get the exclusive, account bound uncommon items within 60 keys since they cost 60 statuettes when they're first added to the vendor and you get 1 statuette but there's no 'pity' mechanic, the drop rate is the same no matter how many keys you've used so it's possible for someone to use over 100 keys without getting it.

If you're buying keys I think the only good way to do it is work out what you'd be willing to spend for the item/s you want and then buy only that many keys (up to a maximum of 60), with the understanding that it's pure luck and like any gambling you may lose. Also if you do get lucky and get it before using all those keys save the rest for the next thing you want.

If you want something which is tradable (like the weapon skins and home instance nodes) it's always going to be better to use gold to buy them, even if you need to convert gems to gold to get them.

(And if like me you don't trust yourself to spend a sensible amount and could make up endless excuses to 'justify' more tries then the sensible amount of keys to buy is zero.)

[Zebulous.2934]

I opened a weapon skin first try then got the star sentinel twentyish tries later. 

I only remember that much because my last attempt at black lion chests were 70 chests of common items. Only common, no 5th item in any of those boxes. I got an uncommon item at the 71st chest and gave up.  My luck was truly bad that session.

Yeah, it is gambling.  The bad thing is, it is always going to be my own fault.

At least I can make the excuse that I am getting statuetts for later. 

[neighto.7386]

Had 6 keys saved up from doing my weekly key farm toon.... got the armor in 3 keys.    Sometimes you get lucky... sometimes you dont... this time luck was on my side for it.    Keep in mind if you dont get the armor that it will eventually be able to buy it for 60 BL statues once it rotates on the vendors list in a few weeks if you dont manage to unlock it with keys

[Omega.6801]

RNG is RNG. Never gamble unless you can afford to lose. Never support lootboxes. Not even the rather fair ones ANet sells.

[Teknomancer.4895]

3 hours ago, Danikat.8537 said:

If you're buying keys I think the only good way to do it is work out what you'd be willing to spend for the item/s you want and then buy only that many keys (up to a maximum of 60), with the understanding that it's pure luck and like any gambling you may lose.

Another thing to keep in mind is that regular-priced gems have always been pegged to just over a penny apiece: the purchase price of 125 gems per key is unchanged since launch, as is the USD-to-gems purchase price. ONE gem is $0.0125 USD regardless of quantity purchased, and has been since launch (check wiki pricing history if you like). That makes each key cost just over $1.25 (125 X 0.0125) so with a personal cut-off of 60 you're still landing at a pretty steep investment at regular price, real-world money (125 x 0.0125) x 60 = $93.75 USD. Using the gold-to-gems exchange, the conversion rate is going to fluctuate per in-game supply and demand so it may work out to more or less. That also doesn't take into account any discounted key sales of course, it only applies to regular price.

4 hours ago, Danikat.8537 said:

(And if like me you don't trust yourself to spend a sensible amount and could make up endless excuses to 'justify' more tries then the sensible amount of keys to buy is zero.)

I wouldn't call the equation above a sensible amount, personally. 🤑 Chasing the shiny in an RNG slot-machine lootbox is intended to be mostly a losing proposition; as with most other forms of gambling, the house always wins. These systems persist mostly because people never do the math, then recoil in horror at the results. Working out the gold-to-gems conversion looks even worse if you factor in how long it took to earn that loot/gold; your "hourly pay rate" for playing the game, as it were.

As you say, the only sensible number of keys to buy is zero. BLT chests simply aren't worth it.

[Danikat.8537]

@Teknomancer.4895 You're right. I'm not saying a reasonable price for the item would get you anywhere near enough keys to have a good chance of getting it, or that you should expect to get it without spending far more than any sane person would if it was sold directly in the gem store. But different people value their money differently, and I think it's more effective to encourage people to do the maths for themselves and decide if it's worth it than to try and set a limit for everyone.

The rule for any type of gambling is only bet what you can afford to lose.

There's also people who say they enjoy the process of opening chests and are happy to pay to do that regardless of what they get from it.

[Surelia.2651]

I can understand feeling frustrated about using so many keys and not seeing what you want drop, but it really is true that these items are just carrots for unnecessary spending since the RNG aspect is pretty borked.   

If it is any consolation, I would point out that you should be careful what you wish for.  A pretty big flaw with both the Star Sentinel and the Star Born outfits is the underlying dye colours already assigned to them, and the mismatch of depth between these colours and the Starlight Wings back pack you pair them with.  While the abyssal dyes are about the only ones which work really well, they still don't fully reach their true colour since the preassigned tone and "sparkle" effects don't align.  Not sure who thought it was a good idea to constantly issue these things with pink and purple but it is fairly annoying to deal with.  Just my 2cents.

Edited February 3 by Surelia.2651

[Dibit.6259]

One thing to note is that the exclusive items in blc end up in the black lion statuette vendor once it is no longer in the chest. Each key guarantees at least 1 statuette per chest so providing you have enough statuettes and are patient you can still get the outfit with spending keys.

[Zebulous.2934]

3 hours ago, Dibit.6259 said:

One thing to note is that the exclusive items in blc end up in the black lion statuette vendor once it is no longer in the chest. Each key guarantees at least 1 statuette per chest so providing you have enough statuettes and are patient you can still get the outfit with spending keys.

But you are spending keys if you have statuetts. Sure you can get lucky and get the uncommon 25 statuetts drop. The occasional extra statuett or 2 as a common drop. Some blc events have a second statuett as a guaranteed drop instead of an odd loot bag or a paint canister.  We still have to spend some keys if we want to use statuetts. 

I suppose if you have several characters, the birthday boxes do have 2 statuetts each. So 30 characters could get you one free outfit a year.  At that point you are paying for character slot expansions.  Can you reach 30 toons on a single account?

Edited February 3 by Zebulous.2934

[Inculpatus cedo.9234]

Except patience is rewarded with lower-than-60 statuette prices on BL Chest items. 

[Dibit.6259]

12 minutes ago, Zebulous.2934 said:

But you are spending keys if you have statuetts. Sure you can get lucky and get the uncommon 25 statuetts drop. The occasional extra statuett or 2 as a common drop. Some blc events have a second statuett as a guaranteed drop instead of an odd loot bag or a paint canister.  We still have to spend some keys if we want to use statuetts. 

I suppose if you have several characters, the birthday boxes do have 2 statuetts each. So 30 characters could get you one free outfit a year.  At that point you are paying for character slot expansions.  Can you reach 30 toons on a single account?

I was just letting people know that if they do spend keys and never get the drop they can buy it later on with statuettes providing they have enough. 

[Teknomancer.4895]

14 minutes ago, Dibit.6259 said:

I was just letting people know that if they do spend keys and never get the drop they can buy it later on with statuettes providing they have enough. 

Which is probably an industry way to point at it and say that there is still a way to obtain a given item even if you don't "win" a long series of turns.

Likely a CYA kind of move, considering that the whole lootbox concept exists in a kind of contested legal grey zone worldwide.

[Shadowmoon.7986]

Play stupid games, win stupid prizes.

Black lion keys are probably of the most preditory, almost never worth it content in game. Yet people keep buying them, so anet will continue to fleece these players dry.

[Donari.5237]

I wasn't specifically going for the outfit, but as the guaranteed item is an exotic that -could- be a precursor (none dropped for me, oh well, but a couple were at least worth selling), I used 25 keys and did happen to get the outfit.  I can't say how many keys in that was.

Edit:  I got some more keys and in those 25 I got the backpack/glider, plus one of the exotics was Rodgort.  All of 25 gold for that pre but it's something.  I fully believe one should open the chests only for the fun of opening them, without expectation, and without spending one coin/dollar more than one is willing to lose on that fun, but I'm fine with buying them when there's something reasonable to get out of them.  What's reasonable?  That's a matter of personal taste.

Edited February 6 by Donari.5237

[Zebulous.2934]

11 hours ago, Shadowmoon.7986 said:

Play stupid games, win stupid prizes.

Black lion keys are probably of the most preditory, almost never worth it content in game. Yet people keep buying them, so anet will continue to fleece these players dry.

Black lion chests are quite generous when compared to any lootbox found in mobile gaming or any lootbox from a Blizzard owned game.  I am not saying that BLCs are good, I am saying that they are a lot better than lootboxes found in other games.  I don't think anything in the black lion chest has a drop rate of .001% not even the permanent service contracts.  I happen to have opened three permanent service contracts over the years.  Then there are all of the service contracts listed on the TP.  
Those mobile games though: .01% and .001% drop rates are sheer insanity to attempt.

It would be nice if Anet would put a little tab on the blc window to show the drop rates of each item.  At the very least the mobile games are forced to show drop rates of loot box items ingame, somewhere.  At least they were last time I played one.

[Dibit.6259]

1 hour ago, Zebulous.2934 said:

Black lion chests are quite generous when compared to any lootbox found in mobile gaming or any lootbox from a Blizzard owned game.  I am not saying that BLCs are good, I am saying that they are a lot better than lootboxes found in other games.  I don't think anything in the black lion chest has a drop rate of .001% not even the permanent service contracts.  I happen to have opened three permanent service contracts over the years.  Then there are all of the service contracts listed on the TP.  
Those mobile games though: .01% and .001% drop rates are sheer insanity to attempt.

It would be nice if Anet would put a little tab on the blc window to show the drop rates of each item.  At the very least the mobile games are forced to show drop rates of loot box items ingame, somewhere.  At least they were last time I played one.

Here are the drop rates results by player experimentation:

https://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Black_Lion_Chest/Drop_rate

 

Based on these statistics the drop is 0.08 (uncommon item) ÷ 20 = 0.004 per key

Please note: this is a calculation based on the provided information and should not be taken as 100% accurate but as a guideline.

[Teknomancer.4895]

2 hours ago, Zebulous.2934 said:

It would be nice if Anet would put a little tab on the blc window to show the drop rates of each item.  At the very least the mobile games are forced to show drop rates of loot box items ingame, somewhere.  At least they were last time I played one.

That's actually called for in at least some of the global regulations I linked above; posting the odds of winning seems to be one relatively common rule. In places like the EU publishers are unlikely to put out a different version for compliance with a single country's laws (or a single state in the USA), so they have incentive to just code for the "lowest common denominator" regulatory framework whether or not it's actually required everywhere else.

If Belgium requires X under penalty of law but France suggests but doesn't require a lesser N standard, most companies doing business in the EU will lean toward compliance with the stricter standard even though the looser one is the larger market. Both exist in the same political-economic framework, so it's just easier that way.

In theory that would mean the strictest rules from one country either set or imply a standard for all others in the Eurozone, just due to the EU's structure. In practice it's probably a lot more muddled and clumsy, I'm sure.

[Danikat.8537]

Even if they're required to show the odds somewhere I doubt they'd be as direct as putting it into the chests preview window.

Elder Scrolls Online has to show the odds because it's one of Microsoft's policies, but it's not in the game at all, it's on a support page on their website, and only shows the chances per tier, not for individual items (which obviously will be lower). For some reason it also groups the two rarest tiers together.

[Teknomancer.4895]

16 minutes ago, Danikat.8537 said:

Even if they're required to show the odds somewhere I doubt they'd be as direct as putting it into the chests preview window.

True enough. Can you imagine the pushback if, say, slot machines had to wear big labels right on the packaging like tobacco products do?

I mean, even the BL Chest interface is reminiscent of a slot machine, there's just no scrolling view of what's being rolled per-cell.

[QueenKeriti.5176]

Yeah...at least my crummy gacha games give me the % chance + have pity/guarantee systems. Overpriced af, predatory af, but still more upfront than black lion chests. .-. The statuette system was a nice addition to be the pity/guarantee; waiting for the item is what sucks there. 🫠