Kito is a traitor!/Scarab Plague Discussion [spoilers]

[Michram.6853]

@Aaron Ansari.1604 said:

@Arden.7480 said:

But I think that story will move to Tyria again, we are done in Elona and this episode closed our journey in there, at least for now. I mean there is still Kralk in there, but it seems we must focus on taking care of our continent, not Elona.

But I think the 3rd episode will be last for Joko. He doesn't have any army from Elona, only the scarabs, and we all know villains don't get their happy endings, at least if they want to change.

I'm not as confident about that. The only 'win' condition here for us is if we hit Joko before he unleashes the plague, and that means going after him in Elona, in the heart of that Awakened army. The guy won't be kind enough to come to us until our continent is leveled, and waiting for that is no option at all.

We might have an episode away from Elona, if the Plague countermeasures we're looking into lead us that way, but I suspect we'll be right back afterwards.

That'd be something extraordinary if Joko would succeed with the plague and actually destroy Tyria, he has all means in his hands, so there must happen a miracle that he suddenly do not want to bring this plague. Unfortunetely we're gonna stop him anyway and a miracle will happen. xD

[Konig Des Todes.2086]

I think people are over-estimating the Scarab Plague a bit on a few different accounts.

First, the fact it's a pestilence not an pathogen. Something that Blish and Gorrik stressed. This means that while devastating, it'd be a lot more manageable to quarantine. But on top of that... it's unlikely to have survived in the same form as of 900 years ago. The bugs would have evolved.

Second, how the Scarab Plague spread... and ceased to spread. It was spread via the food source, allowing people to ingest the bugs. Simply exposing the bugs to people wouldn't have the same effect by all accounts. And once the food source changed, the Scarab Plague ceased to spread.

Third, even as devastating as it was, it wasn't even able to wipe out the entire population of Fahranur - from the quests in GW1, we knew that a number of people evacuated Fahranur and later Istan.

And the fourth is that this time, people know about the upcoming threat.

The four things combined means that Joko would have to be especially precise and subtle about how he unleashes the Scarab Plague.

And this ignores the fact that GW1 pretty heavily hints to a point of indirect confirmation that the plague originated from Abaddon's influence, something that is nearly long gone - the last of it lies in the sulfuric sands of the Desolation, and diminishing by the month, even faster than naturally thanks to the djinn's efforts.

So I do think that it'll be unleashed, but that there won't be a full blown devastation even if the PC does nothing.

Unless ArenaNet wishes to contradict what is said and what is shown in GW1. Wouldn't be the first, I suppose.

[Durzlla.6295]

@Konig Des Todes.2086 said:I think people are over-estimating the Scarab Plague a bit on a few different accounts.

First, the fact it's a pestilence not an pathogen. Something that Blish and Gorrik stressed. This means that while devastating, it'd be a lot more manageable to quarantine. But on top of that... it's unlikely to have survived in the same form as of 900 years ago. The bugs would have evolved.

Second, how the Scarab Plague spread... and ceased to spread. It was spread via the food source, allowing people to ingest the bugs. Simply exposing the bugs to people wouldn't have the same effect by all accounts. And once the food source changed, the Scarab Plague ceased to spread.

Third, even as devastating as it was, it wasn't even able to wipe out the entire population of Fahranur - from the quests in GW1, we knew that a number of people evacuated Fahranur and later Istan.

And the fourth is that this time, people know about the upcoming threat.

The four things combined means that Joko would have to be especially precise and subtle about how he unleashes the Scarab Plague.

And this ignores the fact that GW1 pretty heavily hints to a point of indirect confirmation that the plague originated from Abaddon's influence, something that is nearly long gone - the last of it lies in the sulfuric sands of the Desolation, and diminishing by the month, even faster than naturally thanks to the djinn's efforts.

So I do think that it'll be unleashed, but that there won't be a full blown devastation even if the PC does nothing.

Unless ArenaNet wishes to contradict what is said and what is shown in GW1. Wouldn't be the first, I suppose.

It’s very likely that the plague could be more deveststing now vs then for the very reason that the scarabs evolved.

Additionally, Joko May very well have a way to improve the Scarabs like how scarlet improved her miasma.

[Michram.6853]

@Konig Des Todes.2086 said:

@Arden.7480 said:

@TriEdge.5149 said:order of Shadows is gonna betray us at some point I'm sure of it :D

it already betrayed us.

But I think that story will move to Tyria again, we are done in Elona and this episode closed our journey in there, at least for now. I mean there is still Kralk in there, but it seems we must focus on taking care of our continent, not Elona.

But I think the 3rd episode will be last for Joko. He doesn't have any army from Elona, only the scarabs, and we all know villains don't get their happy endings, at least if they want to change. And if we won't kill him, then our last chance is to beg him for mercy. And thats what is his happy ending- he likes to see how others beg him to spare their lives.I wanted to free Joko from the prison so bad, because I knew how this would end... Now we have to pay for all the writers did to him. :D

The next episode is going to be extremely interesting. And Joko is the villain this game deserves.

I think this episode showed that he

does

have an army still. There are thousands of Awakened around Rata Primus, and I doubt he'd put the bulk of his forces in one Inquest facility without completely taking it over.

I think Joko had made it pretty clear that there's no mercy for the Commander though.

Even if we manage to stop Joko from unleashing the Scarab Plague (something I'm not entirely sure we'll succeed with - ArenaNet's been having a strong case of half-victories with GW2), I doubt we'll be killing him next episode. Best case (for our heroes) scenario: we stop the Scarab Plague, but while we're concentrating on that, Joko slips away to be a threat for the future, and either Kralkatorrik, or Overseer Kuda will become a threat for Episode 5.

Yeah Kuda would be a pretty nice villain. Especially when it may involve Zojja to the story and she may want to get her revenge on her (you know because of her father Kudu).

[borgs.6103]

Whispers - NSAShadows - CIA

[Lord Trejgon.2809]

@"Konig Des Todes.2086" said:I think people are over-estimating the Scarab Plague a bit on a few different accounts.

First, the fact it's a pestilence not an pathogen. Something that Blish and Gorrik stressed. This means that while devastating, it'd be a lot more manageable to quarantine. But on top of that... it's unlikely to have survived in the same form as of 900 years ago. The bugs would have evolved.

Second, how the Scarab Plague spread... and ceased to spread. It was spread via the food source, allowing people to ingest the bugs. Simply exposing the bugs to people wouldn't have the same effect by all accounts. And once the food source changed, the Scarab Plague ceased to spread.

Third, even as devastating as it was, it wasn't even able to wipe out the entire population of Fahranur - from the quests in GW1, we knew that a number of people evacuated Fahranur and later Istan.

And the fourth is that this time, people know about the upcoming threat.

The four things combined means that Joko would have to be especially precise and subtle about how he unleashes the Scarab Plague.

And this ignores the fact that GW1 pretty heavily hints to a point of indirect confirmation that the plague originated from Abaddon's influence, something that is nearly long gone - the last of it lies in the sulfuric sands of the Desolation, and diminishing by the month, even faster than naturally thanks to the djinn's efforts.

So I do think that it'll be unleashed, but that there won't be a full blown devastation even if the PC does nothing.

Unless ArenaNet wishes to contradict what is said and what is shown in GW1. Wouldn't be the first, I suppose.

my working theory for the moment being is that scarabs are laying their eggs in food and use the victim as a "host" for hatching process.

so if joko was to properly "unleash" he'd need to find a way to "poison" all tyrian food with scarabs eggs....

not exacly easy task on it's own - but anything lesser than that would be with "modern" tyria knowledge easy to contain and minimise losses.

[Konig Des Todes.2086]

@Durzlla.6295 said:It’s very likely that the plague could be more deveststing now vs then for the very reason that the scarabs evolved.

Additionally, Joko May very well have a way to improve the Scarabs like how scarlet improved her miasma.

I'm not so sure. Evolution tends to vie towards the direction of survival. The Scarab Plague seemed to require hosts - as @Lord Trejgon.2809 said - but if the pestilence that made the Scarab Plague survived for 900 years with no hosts at all, then they may be instinctively inclined to avoid such hosts.

Unless in those 900 years, the hosts were wildlife.

[Durzlla.6295]

@Konig Des Todes.2086 said:

@Durzlla.6295 said:It’s very likely that the plague could be more deveststing now vs then for the very reason that the scarabs evolved.

Additionally, Joko May very well have a way to improve the Scarabs like how scarlet improved her miasma.

I'm not so sure. Evolution tends to vie towards the direction of survival. The Scarab Plague

seemed

to require hosts - as @"Lord Trejgon.2809" said - but if the pestilence that made the Scarab Plague survived for 900 years with no hosts at all, then they may be instinctively inclined to avoid such hosts.

Unless in those 900 years, the hosts were wildlife.

True, but it also means that the scarabs could've formed a sorta symbiotic (or at least parasitic) relationship with their "intended" host, and not actually kill it in the process. It could've formed such a bond with, say birds, where they would live relatively harmlessly in the bird (IE the bird wouldn't die) and the eggs would escape via the feces, where it'd then go into another organism and then eventually work it's way back into the birds. If this is the case it would make containing the plague far more difficult since it'd effectively make the "plague carriers" even more dangerous since they wouldn't die from hosting and spreading the plague.

The Bubonic Plague for example was considered a pestilence and it ravaged human populations even when it was well known, and the main reason for that was because the main host to it (fleas) didn't die from it, it would carry it from person to person causing it to spread like wildfire.

If over the years Joko has either created a host for the scarab plague that can spread it, or if the plague evolved to have a true host, then this plague can absolutely ravage tyria. And judging from how joko is talking about it i think it's very capable that this is the case.

Additionally, there's always the chance that joko isn't aiming to wipe out all of tyria, but to strategically hit a handful of targets with the plague, which would make it about as easy to do as any toxin, and because this is a pestilence that person would pretty much be given a death sentence and no one would want to help them out of fear of getting it themselves and spreading it.

[Konig Des Todes.2086]

@Durzlla.6295 said:If over the years Joko has either created a host for the scarab plague that can spread it, or if the plague evolved to have a true host, then this plague can absolutely ravage tyria. And judging from how joko is talking about it i think it's very capable that this is the case.

I don't think Joko had access to the Scarab Plague. Otherwise why would he need to steal it from the Inquest?

[Durzlla.6295]

@Konig Des Todes.2086 said:

@Durzlla.6295 said:If over the years Joko has either created a host for the scarab plague that can spread it, or if the plague evolved to have a true host, then this plague can absolutely ravage tyria. And judging from how joko is talking about it i think it's very capable that this is the case.

I don't think Joko had access to the Scarab Plague. Otherwise why would he need to steal it from the Inquest?

It's possible the Inquest have though.

[Castigator.3470]

The Scarab Plague might be a mutation on the behaviour of normal scarabs, who eat dung and carry their larvae in a ball of dung.From the Inquest testing we can gather, that subjects were painfully carved by scarab larvae, who seemed to develop unnaturally fast.Could it be, that the plague is caused by magic absorbing mites, who live in a symbiosis with their host, granting fast growth (+fertility +hatching time +larval growth), but causing them to develop an appetite for meat?

If so, that would be somewhat bad, since it's tricky to identify/exterminate mites. Still, the Scarab Plague may need actual scarabs to even work, which might explain why historically it was confined to Elona and the desert. If that is the case, Joko needs to add scarabs to areas he wants to use the plague on. That, or find another carrier organism.

Plus it might backfire horribly, since the pestilence may even spread to Joko's Awakened. Their bodies, while undead, are still sources of dry proteine. If he wants to dabble in biological warfare, he needs to figure out whether his own army is safe, before he can unleash the plague. Plus, we all know that his taxpayers are not immune to it. Even worse, the current most dangerous threat to Elona, the branded are crystalline entities and likely cannot be digested by an unmodified scarab plague.

Unfortunately, we don't know what the Inquest did to the original pestilence. We need more data and fortunately Taimi has the leading expert on the field and his golem friend.

[Lord Trejgon.2809]

@Durzlla.6295 said:

@Konig Des Todes.2086 said:

@Durzlla.6295 said:It’s very likely that the plague could be more deveststing now vs then for the very reason that the scarabs evolved.

Additionally, Joko May very well have a way to improve the Scarabs like how scarlet improved her miasma.

I'm not so sure. Evolution tends to vie towards the direction of survival. The Scarab Plague

seemed

to require hosts - as @"Lord Trejgon.2809" said - but if the pestilence that made the Scarab Plague survived for 900 years with no hosts at all, then they may be instinctively inclined to avoid such hosts.

Unless in those 900 years, the hosts were wildlife.

True, but it also means that the scarabs could've formed a sorta symbiotic (or at least parasitic) relationship with their "intended" host, and not actually kill it in the process. It could've formed such a bond with, say birds, where they would live relatively harmlessly in the bird (IE the bird wouldn't die) and the eggs would escape via the feces, where it'd then go into another organism and then eventually work it's way back into the birds. If this is the case it would make containing the plague far more difficult since it'd effectively make the "plague carriers" even more dangerous since they wouldn't die from hosting and spreading the plague.

The Bubonic Plague for example was considered a pestilence and it ravaged human populations even when it was well known, and the main reason for that was because the main host to it (fleas) didn't die from it, it would carry it from person to person causing it to spread like wildfire.

If over the years Joko has either created a host for the scarab plague that can spread it, or if the plague evolved to have a true host, then this plague can absolutely ravage tyria. And judging from how joko is talking about it i think it's very capable that this is the case.

Additionally, there's always the chance that joko isn't aiming to wipe out all of tyria, but to strategically hit a handful of targets with the plague, which would make it about as easy to do as any toxin, and because this is a pestilence that person would pretty much be given a death sentence and no one would want to help them out of fear of getting it themselves and spreading it.

well if scarabs were hatching without harm to the host then the "plague" is no longer deadly plague, but merely annoying pests.also if I recall correctly fleas did die to Bubonic plague as well it's just before they died - due to how personal hygiene >didn't< work they were able to spread the thing tremendously before dying themselves.

altho bubonic plague is interesting paralel here because as it was devastating back then in modern days due to how society evolved in the time even if there was an outbreak of this one it would do very little damage in most places.

which would make an interesting plot point if something similar happened in the storyline imo xD

I mean I'd have a blast of a fun if after all that foreshadowing and stuff we actually fail to stop joko from "unleashing" the plaque but in the end it doesn't do any noticeable damage because of something silly tyrians have now that elonians didn't thousands of years before....

or even better, if our geniuses figure out beforehand that with how modern tyrian society works outbreak would not be very likely to be this devastating so we figure out a plan to lure joko into a "trap" while he tries to "unleash" the thing..... (maybe infecting himself? tbh I am kinda curious at this point what would happen if in the very unlikely event joko himself have catched some scarabs eating his bellies out)

[draxynnic.3719]

I think it's still less than a thousand years since the Scarab Plague.

It's a valid point, though: it's possible that the Scarab Plague might fizzle due to something that modern Tyrians had that the Primeval Dynasty didn't. It's even possible this might be as simple as "knowing what the Scarab Plague is, knowing it might be used as a weapon, and keeping an eye open for it" - checking the food supply for eggs and discarding contaminated food could well have been enough to stop the Scarab Plague. But it's entirely possible that modern Tyrians might be able to devise a magical decontamination procedure.

[Durzlla.6295]

@Lord Trejgon.2809 when I was saying it’d be harmless to the host, I mean the intended host. Typically if a parasite ends up in an unintended host, that host could find themselves in a lot of problems since their anatomy and body functions don’t line up the same way, so it will probably mean death to them, and the scarabs in this situation wouldn’t be able to sit around in that host for the long haul.

So it could still be deadly, but would allow it to spread under the correct circumstances.

That being said, I still think it’d be very interesting if it does fizzle out. But I don’t think that’ll be the case. I still think his idea of releasing the plague upon everyone isn’t the real plan and he’s going to target a select few people with it and use the fear of the plague spreading to make it so no one wants to help them.

[Aaron Ansari.1604]

This raises an interesting question- we players know that the Scarab Plague probably spread through the food supplies, but does modern Tyria? That discovery was the work of an Istani scholar; a quick search of the wiki, at least, doesn't show any in-game recognition of infested food, or any mention of Chago. Is it possible that the information didn't make it into the Priory's hands before Joko's conquest cut contact off?

EDIT: And another interesting thing I'd forgotten- reading through that questline, it seems the insects of Istan produce spores, which Chago seemed to believe may have been capable of causing the Plague. If that's the case, it might be the Plague could've survived without evolution or hosts, with the spores simply remaining dormant until conditions were right for them to germinate.

[ugrakarma.9416]

@"Lord Trejgon.2809" said:so if joko was to properly "unleash" he'd need to find a way to "poison" all tyrian food with scarabs eggs....

he can sabotage a trade shipment of food.

with Elen Kiel going to Ammnon, its seems a trade route will be restored

[Michram.6853]

@ugrakarma.9416 said:

@"Lord Trejgon.2809" said:so if joko was to properly "unleash" he'd need to find a way to "poison" all tyrian food with scarabs eggs....

he can sabotage a trade shipment of food.

with Elen Kiel going to Ammnon, its seems a trade route will be restored

oh boy.

[Lord Trejgon.2809]

@ugrakarma.9416 said:

@"Lord Trejgon.2809" said:so if joko was to properly "unleash" he'd need to find a way to "poison" all tyrian food with scarabs eggs....

he can sabotage a trade shipment of food.

with Elen Kiel going to Ammnon, its seems a trade route will be restored

which would mean people eating that single shipment of food gets infested.....

and only them.

Remember people were leaving istan during scarab plaque outbreak and yet the plague didn't leave the island.

So lets say joko sabotage a shipment going to LA - worst case scenario - we loose LA (again) - but not much more which is why I said he'd need to contaminate all food supplies for a "proper" outbreak.

[Castigator.3470]

@Lord Trejgon.2809 said:

@ugrakarma.9416 said:

@Lord Trejgon.2809 said:so if joko was to properly "unleash" he'd need to find a way to "poison" all tyrian food with scarabs eggs....

he can sabotage a trade shipment of food.

with Elen Kiel going to Ammnon, its seems a trade route will be restored

which would mean people eating that single shipment of food gets infested.....

and only them.

Remember people were leaving istan during scarab plaque outbreak and yet the plague didn't leave the island.

So lets say joko sabotage a shipment going to LA - worst case scenario - we loose LA (again) - but not much more which is why I said he'd need to contaminate all food supplies for a "proper" outbreak.

Or the scarabs, which I consider carriers of this pestilence lay their eggs into the food supply (meat? round objects?) That way the plague would infest a location, but I agree, that this would have endemic characteristics. This would mean the Scarab Plague sticks to a single area. That would be bad for that particular area, but the rest of the world would likely be unaffected. Joko would need portal access to spead the Scarab plague. As far as I know, his access to portals ended with LS Season 4 Episode 2.

But alas, we don't know how the Scarab Plague works in minute detail. We don't even know whether or not the current strain is identical to the one, that wiped out the primordial city.

I believe, that we can modify the plague to become relatively harmless, if we can slow down the scarab egg hatching. If slowed down, the scarab eggs would only hatch after the food has already left the host organism. Maybe we get even more creative and can entirely prevent the scarab eggs from hatching.

[Subli.8217]

i suspect the charr race will be hit the most in tyria, since we find in inquest labs the charr are particularly vulnerable to it. good riddance, justice for human ascalon.

[Oldirtbeard.9834]

I think Joko sends in Bio Terrorists under the guise of political refugees then they can easily spread the disease.

I mean if any one can spread a disease you figure it would be a Lich which is basically a grandmaster Necromancer and if we know anything about Necros it's Epidemic.

[Sligher.6043]

Wondering if we will go to the Monuments of Nahlah and Dahlah in Istan found off the coast of the Mehtani Keys to the south and east to find out more about the spread and start of this plaque.

[Konig Des Todes.2086]

Well the plague began at Fahranur, not at the Mehtani Keys where the monuments are (if GW1 players' guesses on which monuments are which is correct).

[Dawnpainterz.3914]

Didn't he also tell people the Commander is Canach's underling?As much as Canach snarks, I don't see him saying he's the leader of Dragon's Watch. So is Kito also trying to drive a wedge between the Commander and what he would believe is the only member (that he knows of) that's a threat to figuring out his (or his order's) plans for the Commander?

[Konig Des Todes.2086]

It's never said who spread the rumor of the Commander being "Canach's crony", which is only ever mentioned by Archivist Rhadha.

And honestly, I could see that rumor spreading due to Canach's bets about the Commander, and could see a drunk Canach saying that the Commander's his crony, rather than ally or friend. Canach saying he has friends (as in actual friends and not simply contacts) seems a lot less likely than him saying he led Dragon's Watch.