Drop rate of Hydra Staff?

[mtpelion.4562]

Do not -- repeat -- DO NOT open Black Lion Chests with any form of goal. If you are opening a chest "hoping" to get a specific item, you are doing it wrong and will be disappointed.

The chests are a gamble. As such, you should always assume that you will get NOTHING.

[Nightmare.1234]

I got one after 2nd key used on first day, i wish u could sell them thou, cant find a char that it fits yet.

[Slowpokeking.8720]

Should I laugh or cry? After used most of the quests to get 13-14 keys and nothing good, I spent bucks to buy a 25 keys set, then the first one dropped the staff skin

[Lahmia.2193]

Bought 25 keys to get the Jackal Pup Backpiece. Got Hydra staff after opening 1, then Jackal on the 23rd. But, it's RNG. There's no set amount of chests you have to open to get it. People need to understand that.

[knyy.6427]

I got my Hydra staff after opening freaking 86 chests, so ridiculous and I hate this kitten rng!

[Aurelian Omenkind.2470]

@mtpelion.4562 said:Do not -- repeat -- DO NOT open Black Lion Chests with any form of goal. If you are opening a chest "hoping" to get a specific item, you are doing it wrong and will be disappointed.

The chests are a gamble. As such, you should always assume that you will get NOTHING.

That’s pretty unreasonable to ask of people. The whole appeal of the chests is to specifically get particular items, usually the temporary offerings. To expect not to get what was added is like going to a casino not hoping to win something. If that were true , gambling as an industry would completely die out... unless that’s what you’re hoping for.

[Slowpokeking.8720]

Still, I'm REALLY against such way of selling stuff, everything should be direct sale rather than gamble.

[Static.9841]

Don't know what to tell you, it's RNG. I bought 5 keys and got both the Jackal Pup and the Hydra staff out of them. I think it's a big shame that these items are tied to black lion chests and not gem store sale, but I guess it makes them more via gems to sell on a lottery style basis.

[Shirlias.8104]

Yeah the rng here is not the problem.The real one is they can't be traded.

[mtpelion.4562]

@Aurelian Omenkind.2470 said:

@mtpelion.4562 said:Do not -- repeat -- DO NOT open Black Lion Chests with any form of goal. If you are opening a chest "hoping" to get a specific item, you are doing it wrong and will be disappointed.

The chests are a gamble. As such, you should always assume that you will get NOTHING.

That’s pretty unreasonable to ask of people. The whole appeal of the chests is to specifically get particular items, usually the temporary offerings. To expect not to get what was added is like going to a casino not hoping to win something. If that were true , gambling as an industry would completely die out... unless that’s what you’re hoping for.

What is unreasonable is going into a casino and expecting to win, which is exactly what you're doing when you buy keys trying to get a specific item.

[titje.2745]

@knyy.6427 said:I got my Hydra staff after opening freaking 86 chests, so ridiculous and I hate this kitten rng!

how much times did you get the 4th slot?

[ThePlayMaker.1058]

Damn I had no idea Hydra Staff was in such high demand. I got it after like 5 or 6 chests I think? It's a really awesome skin for sure.

[crashburntoo.7431]

I was one of the fortunate people that picked it up with my first chest since PoF release. I received a key for map completion and popped a chest... there it was. It was in the 4th slot (rare) position.

Unfortunately, this is gambling, so you win some and lose some. Each chest is an independent event, so large number averages only reveal the average rates. You can play the odds from there, but you may or may not get what you want. I'm in full agreement with several others in this thread that the items shouldn't be Account Bound. It would be nice to sell them like other skins, since some people will love them and others, not so much.

[Aurelian Omenkind.2470]

@mtpelion.4562 said:

@Aurelian Omenkind.2470 said:

@mtpelion.4562 said:Do not -- repeat -- DO NOT open Black Lion Chests with any form of goal. If you are opening a chest "hoping" to get a specific item, you are doing it wrong and will be disappointed.

The chests are a gamble. As such, you should always assume that you will get NOTHING.

That’s pretty unreasonable to ask of people. The whole appeal of the chests is to specifically get particular items, usually the temporary offerings. To expect not to get what was added is like going to a casino not hoping to win something. If that were true , gambling as an industry would completely die out... unless that’s what you’re hoping for.

What is unreasonable is going into a casino and expecting to win, which is exactly what you're doing when you buy keys trying to get a specific item.

What I’m saying is that gambling is intrinsically built on hope. Without hope to win, people wouldn’t gamble. I’m not saying gambling in general is good, acceptable, or even preferable, I’m just saying that to expect nothing positive from gambling goes against the entire structure of gambling. No one would gamble just to watch their money disappear if that’s all they had expectation for.

[lothefallen.7081]

@Slowpokeking.8720 said:Still, I'm REALLY against such way of selling stuff, everything should be direct sale rather than gamble.

I agree with you, but as a game gets more popular and the population is somewhat large and stable (like GW2 compared to a game like Wildstar), it becomes more profitable for ArenaNet to put desirable items behind RNG walls because, with more players, the vocal minority of players that are not happy with these practices are easier to drown out. This means that ArenaNet catches less of a bad rap for their greedy practices because of the broader player base that continues to feed into the system by buying hundreds of keys - these are the people enabling the practice to continue. This is further evidenced by the fact that so many of the better skins have been locked behind the Black Lion Ticket claim system. As far as the logistics go, I'm quite sure that this system will continue to be more profitable for ArenaNet because, not only do the players want the highly desired skins, they are conditioned into gambling for them based on tactics like "limited time only" and peer competition for aesthetics. the only effective way to enact change within this system is to simply refuse to buy keys and have your peers boycott as well.

However, this will likely never change due to the constant pressures of aesthetic competition and the psychological draw to exclusivity, some of the many toxic symptoms of capitalism in a virtual space that game developers exploit to prey on the all-too-willing player communities.

[mtpelion.4562]

@Aurelian Omenkind.2470 said:

@mtpelion.4562 said:

@Aurelian Omenkind.2470 said:

@mtpelion.4562 said:Do not -- repeat -- DO NOT open Black Lion Chests with any form of goal. If you are opening a chest "hoping" to get a specific item, you are doing it wrong and will be disappointed.

The chests are a gamble. As such, you should always assume that you will get NOTHING.

That’s pretty unreasonable to ask of people. The whole appeal of the chests is to specifically get particular items, usually the temporary offerings. To expect not to get what was added is like going to a casino not hoping to win something. If that were true , gambling as an industry would completely die out... unless that’s what you’re hoping for.

What is unreasonable is going into a casino and expecting to win, which is exactly what you're doing when you buy keys trying to get a specific item.

What I’m saying is that gambling is intrinsically built on hope. Without hope to win, people wouldn’t gamble. I’m not saying gambling in general is good, acceptable, or even preferable, I’m just saying that to expect nothing positive from gambling goes against the entire structure of gambling. No one would gamble just to watch their money disappear if that’s all they had expectation for.

The point of my original post was to stress the difference between hoping and expecting. If you open chests expecting to get a specific item, you will most likely end up unhappy at the result.

The fact that people go in expecting to win even though that is the wrong way to approach it is precisely why gambling exists, and why posts like mine are needed.

[titje.2745]

pff worked for keys, completed 3 maps, 2 keys and bought 2 keys and no single time a 4th slot. do i ever get rewarded by this company or do they only want to catch our money?

[Illconceived Was Na.9781]

I've never been in favor of RNG-only items in the BL chest being account bound: if it's RNG, it should be tradeable; if it's not tradeable, there should be a "guaranteed acquisition" opportunity (even if it's just using BL scraps converted to tickets, since those drop predictably).

That said, I urge people to remember that BL Chests are filled with Junk. Open them for the fun of rolling the dice, not to get something specific. The chances of getting something you want are simply too small to matter for anyone unwilling to buy fewer than 100-200 keys (and there are many who buy more over the course of a year).

ANet established a recent precedent, the Black Lion Exclusives Chest. It is (a) RNG but (b) tradeable and © offers a guaranteed choice of a past RNG/account-bound item, including the coveted elemental sword, mini celestial rooster, etc, i.e. all the past things that people complained about being low-rate-RNG/account-bound. I think there's a decent chance that we'll see something similar that will include the coveted (although horribly ugly) Hydra Skin, too.

tl;dr wait it out; I expect we'll see a guaranteed-acquisition option that trades on the TP within the next 4-7 months.

[Ghostt.1293]

wasted over 600gold trying to get either jackhal backpack or the staff still no kittfken luck

[Xaja.5276]

So uh... I got this staff on my first try with a normal black lion key that I got from map completing Elon Riverlands.

[Coulter.2315]

@Slowpokeking.8720 said:

@Djinn.9245 said:

@Slowpokeking.8720 said:

@Djinn.9245 said:

@Slowpokeking.8720 said:

@Ashen.2907 said:

@Slowpokeking.8720 said:

@RoseofGilead.8907 said:

They're still meant to not be a common drop. And RNG is still RNG; the videos you watched had them opening dozens of chests with no staff or backpack, but I got the staff on my second chest.

Yes, but one or no from 50 or 80 chests is nowhere close to "uncommon", so I want to know the exact drop rate.

Actually that is within the realm of uncommon.

So what's the actual rate? I opened like 10, didn't see one uncommon. Does it have to do with the chest? They were stored in my bank for a long while

Knowing the rate won't help anyone. You could still get it quickly or open hundreds and never get it. That's how GW2 RNG works - it doesn't care how many you already tried, every try is brand new RNG.

Of course it's going to help, at least the overall range could be known.

How specifically does that help?

So ppl would know the usual range and decide to get keys or not. Of course I would always prefer direct sale rather than RNG.

@Slowpokeking.8720 said:

@Djinn.9245 said:

@Slowpokeking.8720 said:

@Djinn.9245 said:

@Slowpokeking.8720 said:

@Ashen.2907 said:

@Slowpokeking.8720 said:

@RoseofGilead.8907 said:

They're still meant to not be a common drop. And RNG is still RNG; the videos you watched had them opening dozens of chests with no staff or backpack, but I got the staff on my second chest.

Yes, but one or no from 50 or 80 chests is nowhere close to "uncommon", so I want to know the exact drop rate.

Actually that is within the realm of uncommon.

So what's the actual rate? I opened like 10, didn't see one uncommon. Does it have to do with the chest? They were stored in my bank for a long while

Knowing the rate won't help anyone. You could still get it quickly or open hundreds and never get it. That's how GW2 RNG works - it doesn't care how many you already tried, every try is brand new RNG.

Of course it's going to help, at least the overall range could be known.

How specifically does that help?

So ppl would know the usual range and decide to get keys or not. Of course I would always prefer direct sale rather than RNG.

If you want a 95% chance of getting the hydra staff you could work that out with the rate but you'll never be able to get a range with an upper bound giving you a chance of 100%.