Thoughts on the calculated timing of EoD

[Vayne.8563]

21 hours ago, KryTiKaL.3125 said:

Sure, they did fine...ignoring the layoffs, ignoring the fact that they have gone through more game directors in the last few years than most other MMORPG studios (several of which left of their own volition for presumably greener pastures), the less than delivered upon "expansion like content" that was touted for Icebrood saga and GW2 still barely being a blip on most people's radar due in large part to that "crutch" I do indeed keep mentioning.

 

Look, its fine if we disagree here I'm just trying to argue the point that whatever faith you, and potentially others, still seem to have in ANet to actually deliver on whatever EoD should probably be does not diminish the reality that GW2 absolutely needs for EoD to do well and to step up their game in the MMORPG market because of the MMORPG options making their way here later this year. Its either that or NCSoft may pull the plug based on past history with other companies that they have "reorganized" in similar ways prior to their shutdown. Now despite my distaste with GW2 right now, and ANet, I wouldn't exactly like to see that happen.

You do realize that Amazon opened their game Studio down the block from Anet and hired away a lot of the dev talent to start up their own games.  It's not like Anet was going to be able to compete with Amazon. 

And you probably realize, I'd think, that the layoffs weren't people working on Guild Wars 2 in the first place. Most of them were working on other projects, so I'm not sure what that has to do with Guild Wars 2.

This doesn't have anything to do with faith or not faith. It has to do with people having fun in game and many of us still are. I don't have to take this on faith. Those who aren't having fun have reason to not buy the expansion. I am having fun and will look forward to new zones to explore, new story to go through, new achievements to get, new skins to unlock.

 

But your list of things that Anet was doing fine until is a bit misleading. They're still doing fine. The biggest issue out of all of it is that NcSoft insisted on the expansion and they are essentially running the company no matter who the game director is. But I suspect the expansion will be better than most people think it will be.

[KryTiKaL.3125]

16 hours ago, Vayne.8563 said:

You do realize that Amazon opened their game Studio down the block from Anet and hired away a lot of the dev talent to start up their own games.  It's not like Anet was going to be able to compete with Amazon. 

And you probably realize, I'd think, that the layoffs weren't people working on Guild Wars 2 in the first place. Most of them were working on other projects, so I'm not sure what that has to do with Guild Wars 2.

This doesn't have anything to do with faith or not faith. It has to do with people having fun in game and many of us still are. I don't have to take this on faith. Those who aren't having fun have reason to not buy the expansion. I am having fun and will look forward to new zones to explore, new story to go through, new achievements to get, new skins to unlock.

 

But your list of things that Anet was doing fine until is a bit misleading. They're still doing fine. The biggest issue out of all of it is that NcSoft insisted on the expansion and they are essentially running the company no matter who the game director is. But I suspect the expansion will be better than most people think it will be.

 

And I imagine the people playing Wildstar and City of Heroes/Villains very much believed and thought the very same things. "We're still having fun", "They're still doing fine" and ultimately look where both of those games studios ended up. Granted City of Heroes found a new resurgence via a practically officially sanctioned private server but that was years after it was shut down.

 

Also why do you possibly think NCSoft may have been the ones insisting on an expansion? Because it generates revenue. They want to make money, of course they do. They are a company, ANet is a company. GW2 has been one of its lowest earning games next to Aion. B&S earned more than GW2 until later in 2020, and GW2 only barely edged out ahead of B&S. Then just considering Q1 of this year Aion jumped out way ahead of GW2 in earnings, likely due to the announcements and information on Aion Classic. NCSoft reported on general increases for those quarters but those were cumulative and factoring in every product they own, GW2 was only a small snippet of that. If you look at a release year for an expansion you can see GW2 making big jumps in revenue for that quarter and potentially the one after, but ultimately it has a pretty steep drop off. Why? GW2 has no staying power, its player retention is not good and you can see that in the earnings reports. If they stuck around, they'd buy things but they don't stick around for longer enough to end up buying things.

 

I get it, you and many others enjoy GW2 thats fine I have no qualms with that you do you I'll do me, we just disagree on the state of things. I think that you can't just ignore these circumstances and just believe everything is fine. This expansion will bring a surge of sales, but whether that revenue remains consistent or drops off steeply after the expansion is likely to determine if GW2 is going to continue to be around; or maybe we'll see a GW2 Classic show up as a worst case scenario.

[Gotejjeken.1267]

On 6/17/2021 at 3:09 PM, KryTiKaL.3125 said:

 

"New World added at the last second PvE on top of what was originally a PvP game."

Sure, but apparently there are still plenty of people who enjoy what they experienced. And is GW2 PvE any less shallow than whatever New World has added? I mean really?

 

"SOLO endgame is the same 5 dungeons, and it’s a game that doesn’t do any one thing better than other MMOs."

And what is GW2 endgame? Same Fractals over and over again? Same Raids if most people even bother to do them? Same Meta Events? WvW that has been neglected for years? The ever dwindling sPvP population? Fashion Wars. Right.

 

"Lost Ark is pay to win for all we know, while you claim we are not in the know about GW2’s future."

Lost Ark isn't even considered pay to win in the other regions that it has been released in, I highly doubt that will change here. Whatever post you've probably seen on r/MMORPG is not an accurate assessment of what the game is, and thats not blind optimism that is just people who have actually played the other versions disproving that. Even if we got the exact same cash shop in the West that they have in KR, it would still be entirely fine. Not to mention...also free to play.

 

Also I am being sincere in saying I want GW2 to succeed, I just wholeheartedly disagree with you that it isn't in a tight spot right now considering the circumstances. Because it is. Whether you like it or not there are plenty of other options in the MMORPG genre for people to get their hands on, and will end up playing and possibly sticking to for longer periods of time than many bother sticking around for in GW2. If not one MMO, then another. Sometimes I think you can't quite see whats around you because you're intentionally blinding yourself to the faults in GW2 because you probably love the game that much. I get it. You love the game, so do many more, but there are still many others who are finding themselves exhausted with waiting around for ANet to do something that will turn their perceptions of the game around. Those people number far more than you might want to admit, and those people will go elsewhere given the opportunity unless EoD does some pretty significant things and can prove it can continue to compete in the market.

 

Personally I've never believed that with the prior expansions and with other games coming out. Not even when BDO was launching in 2016, definitely not when Bless Online was coming around, not when Wildstar was launching, and not even when Archeage Unchained was going to be a thing.

 

I do not think another game will be GW2's doom. I think ANet and GW2 itself is going to be GW2's doom.

 

This ain't reddit.  If you haven't logged in for a year, why are you on the forums? Not many really care to read personal blog posts like this.  

 

Also, ALL FTP KRPGs are P2W.  Sorry if you can't see that.  

[KryTiKaL.3125]

7 minutes ago, Gotejjeken.1267 said:

 

This ain't reddit.  If you haven't logged in for a year, why are you on the forums? Not many really care to read personal blog posts like this.  

 

Also, ALL FTP KRPGs are P2W.  Sorry if you can't see that.  

Given the available information, thats not accurate. You do realize some people consider GW2 P2W, right? Not me, but there are genuinely people who believe this due to the exp boosters, gem to gold conversion allowing you to buy Legendaries or the materials to make Ascended gear, needing to buy expansions and believe Elite Specs are just straight better than Core specs, apparently server transfers are P2W for WvW too.

 

Also...aren't most of these forums just personal blog posts? I fail to see your reasoning here.

[zealex.9410]

If its gonna release early mid nov (24 weeks for the spotlight weeks plus at least one week break now) ita getting dangerously close to Ew and i would much rather they delay it at that point to early Jan 2022, you dodge ff14 and all the staff are back from holidays and ready to be there for any issues that might arise. 

 

Yes thats a delay but hey dont ppl love spamming "a delayed game is eventually good, etc etc"?

[Vayne.8563]

3 hours ago, KryTiKaL.3125 said:

 

And I imagine the people playing Wildstar and City of Heroes/Villains very much believed and thought the very same things. "We're still having fun", "They're still doing fine" and ultimately look where both of those games studios ended up. Granted City of Heroes found a new resurgence via a practically officially sanctioned private server but that was years after it was shut down.

 

Also why do you possibly think NCSoft may have been the ones insisting on an expansion? Because it generates revenue. They want to make money, of course they do. They are a company, ANet is a company. GW2 has been one of its lowest earning games next to Aion. B&S earned more than GW2 until later in 2020, and GW2 only barely edged out ahead of B&S. Then just considering Q1 of this year Aion jumped out way ahead of GW2 in earnings, likely due to the announcements and information on Aion Classic. NCSoft reported on general increases for those quarters but those were cumulative and factoring in every product they own, GW2 was only a small snippet of that. If you look at a release year for an expansion you can see GW2 making big jumps in revenue for that quarter and potentially the one after, but ultimately it has a pretty steep drop off. Why? GW2 has no staying power, its player retention is not good and you can see that in the earnings reports. If they stuck around, they'd buy things but they don't stick around for longer enough to end up buying things.

 

I get it, you and many others enjoy GW2 thats fine I have no qualms with that you do you I'll do me, we just disagree on the state of things. I think that you can't just ignore these circumstances and just believe everything is fine. This expansion will bring a surge of sales, but whether that revenue remains consistent or drops off steeply after the expansion is likely to determine if GW2 is going to continue to be around; or maybe we'll see a GW2 Classic show up as a worst case scenario.

Someone is not following the sales figures.  They've been mostly stable for a very very long time.  Not the same situation with Wildstar which made a fraction of what this game made.  As for City of Heroes no one knows the real story about what happened there, but again, it wasn't nearly as popular as Guild Wars 2.  If those are the two games you're comparing this one too, we're in pretty good shape.

The landscape has changed though, and cell phone games are now less investment and more profitable than making a new MMO. There's less risk involved. So the company goes into cell phone games without any real reason to shut down a profitable MMO that they've already invested in. But it's why I believe Guild Wars 3 is never coming. 

[Inculpatus cedo.9234]

I think it's unreasonable to expect revenue to stay the same in successive months as in expansion release months.

Veterans, likely, purchasing the expansion, make up a good portion of the sales revenue during expansion release months, and thus won't continue spending in later months; at least, not thirty to eighty dollars per month. 

New adopters might, but I doubt that their spending, no matter how many there are, would equal the revenue of their initial purchase plus veterans' expansion purchase. 

[Vayne.8563]

4 hours ago, Inculpatus cedo.9234 said:

I think it's unreasonable to expect revenue to stay the same in successive months as in expansion release months.

Veterans, likely, purchasing the expansion, make up a good portion of the sales revenue during expansion release months, and thus won't continue spending in later months; at least, not thirty to eighty dollars per month. 

New adopters might, but I doubt that their spending, no matter how many there are, would equal the revenue of their initial purchase plus veterans' expansion purchase. 

I don't think anyone expects that.  When I say the sales have been stable, I mean the sales between expansion releases. If you look at the post HoT period and now, Anet is doing roughly the same numbers within a margin of error.

[mindcircus.1506]

9 hours ago, KryTiKaL.3125 said:

And I imagine the people playing Wildstar and City of Heroes/Villains very much believed and thought the very same things. "We're still having fun", "They're still doing fine" and ultimately look where both of those games studios ended up. Granted City of Heroes found a new resurgence via a practically officially sanctioned private server but that was years after it was shut down.

A large part of the shutdown of CoH/V had little to do with the performance of the game.

One of the former developers was pretty candid about the fact that Paragon had been given a significant amount of money from NCSoft to develop a sequel and that the funds were not used for that, that they were instead used to prototype other games.

When NCSoft found out they canned the studio.
Lets also keep in mind that the private server was in operation almost immediately after the shutdown and operated for years in secret based on not only server code that a developer had passed to a prominent community member but the entire client database including payment methods (CC Numbers) and history of all the people who had played and played legitimately.

 

It's really important not to romanticize the death of CoH or paint those running the private server before it went public as some kind of heroes. They were knowingly in possession of stolen user data and proprietary software.

Likewise NCSoft were not the villains popular opinion made them out to be.

[Inculpatus cedo.9234]

2 hours ago, Vayne.8563 said:

I don't think anyone expects that.  When I say the sales have been stable, I mean the sales between expansion releases. If you look at the post HoT period and now, Anet is doing roughly the same numbers within a margin of error.

It seems some do:

 

If you look at a release year for an expansion you can see GW2 making big jumps in revenue for that quarter and potentially the one after, but ultimately it has a pretty steep drop off. Why? GW2 has no staying power, its player retention is not good and you can see that in the earnings reports. If they stuck around, they'd buy things but they don't stick around for longer enough to end up buying things.

 

It's not always about your posts. 

Edited June 19, 2021 by Inculpatus cedo.9234

[VocalThought.9835]

After reading many of the comments and hearing WP today talking a little about this, I really think ANet really has to get this right! The best thing to do is to get EOD out WHEN it's READY. The last time they said this, it had some signs that it wasn't ready. I think the LWs were a terrible idea, the story telling was under par, and the initial trait system needed to be changed.

 

Because there is so much competition, GW really needs to have no one else on their level, I feel to continue. I love the concept of their professions, the action and combat system, their races and the world. I really hope they bring their A-game, so if they have time to delay and fine tune some things, they should do it. 

 

I been hoping they treat EOD like it's the last Expansion and hit it out the park. I would love more content afterwards but if they can give a nice finale to the EOD and maybe dive into the "Depth of Tyria" next, I think that be awesome. I think they really need to give the fans what they want, with adding the Tengu, fixing the Revenant, reworking LW1, and add some deep story immersion to all the elite specialization. I would really like if they added my own suggestion, giving another minor weapon proficiency to each elite specialization. Therefore each elite spec would have two weapon styles available, and most weapons that have been requested would be available. 

 

I came up with some ideas that I feel would really work and not take away from the current game experience nor future plans of ANet. If Anet incorporate them, they would help make GW2 a better game.

 

1) Each current Elite Specialization will have 2 minor weapon proficiencies. 

Guard.: Dragonhunters would have Longbow and offhand Sword / Firebrand would have main hand Axe and mainhand Focus.

Revenant: Heralds would have Shield and Greatsword / Renegades would have Shortbow and offhand Focus

Warrior: Berserkers would have Torches and Main hand Shield / Spell Breakers would have Dual Daggers and Offhand Focus.

 

Thief:  Daredevils would have Staff and Dual Mace / Deadeye would have Rifle and offhand Focus.

Engineer: Scrappers would have Hammer and main hand Mace / Holosmith would have main hand Sword and Staff.

Ranger: Druids would have Staff and offhand Focus / Soulbeasts would have main hand Dagger and Rifle.

 

Ele : Tempests would have Warhorn and offhand Scepter / Weavers would have main hand Sword and main hand Focus.

Mesmer: Chronomancers would have Shield and Dual Daggers / Mirages would have main hand Axe and main hand Pistol.

Necromancers: Reapers would have Greatsword and offhand Axe / Scourges would have Torch and offhand Shield.

 

2) The next Elite Specs:

- Guardian's Archon would have their Virtues change to Attunements where the passives are stronger. They'd be skilled with Glyphs and they fight with War Horn and an offhand Scepter.

 

- Revenant's Overlord would be able to connect with a Legend from the future, being skilled to use the mist in ways not yet seen and fighting with main hand Scepter and main hand Pistol.

 

- Warrior's Warlord would use their adrenaline burst to be tacticians, marking an area that buff their allies and gives foes  a condition standing in their Battle Ground.  They would fight with a Staff and offhand pistol. 

 

- Thief's Inquisitor looses the ability to use a dual weapon skills, but gains the ability to have Intuition, so when their initiative is at top, they gain Aegis. They're skilled in Survival  and able to use Torch and an offhand Sword.

 

- Engineer's Technomancer loose their tool belt for Mana abilities, where they can truly merge their science with magic. They also are skilled in creating Gear, like ele's conjures, where they and their allies can use them in battle. They fight with a Greatsword and an offhand Focus.

 

- Ranger's Warden is able to shapeshift into their pet being able to use all of their pet abilities, pet archetype ability, and an additional skill in in their weapon bar when they are in pet form. They are also skilled in consecrations and fight with offhand Shield and Hammer.

 

-Elementalist's Acanist can attune to the Arcane as 5th element, but their effectiveness with other attunements is hampered when they switch, but once remaining attune they can be a powerhouse. They are skilled with Mantras and fight with Longbows and Greatswords.

 

- Mesmer's Siren is able to change the type and number of clones they can create based off or their Grandmaster Skill. They can either have one powerful Doppelganger, 5 lesser clones, or 3 clones that steal the opponents health when shattered and brings the health to the caster. Sirens are skilled with Shouts and can use the Warhorn and the Shortbow.

 

- Necromancer's Warlock has a Djinn is also active, riding the back of it's host until its time to attack. They'll use life force to will Djinn or allow them to merge and conjure the Demon Shroud. They are skilled with Manipulation and fight with Hammer and Rifle.

 

3) Add the Tengu Race to the game.

 

4) Make Revenants have access to racial skills. They could add a new F ability where they toggle on/off their  Legends and have access to Remnant Skills (one for each core Legend) and their racial abilities, which will all be able to be slotted. This way Revenants will have equal # of skills, as well.

 

5) Make a Racial Specialization, where it can only be used in place of an Elite Specialization and provides bonuses that make racial skills on par with profession skills. 

Edited June 19, 2021 by VocalThought.9835

[Vayne.8563]

2 minutes ago, Inculpatus cedo.9234 said:

It seems some do:

 

If you look at a release year for an expansion you can see GW2 making big jumps in revenue for that quarter and potentially the one after, but ultimately it has a pretty steep drop off. Why? GW2 has no staying power, its player retention is not good and you can see that in the earnings reports. If they stuck around, they'd buy things but they don't stick around for longer enough to end up buying things.

 

It's not always about your posts. 

Ah it came right after my post, and the program notified me there was a reponse to my post. That's why I try to quote the posts I'm responding to.

[Inculpatus cedo.9234]

A response (notification) is an emoticon. 

A quote (notification) would be referring to your post, definitively. 

[zityz.6089]

I don't think anyone would have to worry about GW2 competing with FF14:EW. The people who are going to buy EW are going to buy it and play it. The people who play GW2 will buy EoD, and if you play both? Well GW2 is free monthly, so people can still buy it and play it later.

 

FF14 competes more with WoW than GW2. 

[zealex.9410]

6 hours ago, zityz.6089 said:

I don't think anyone would have to worry about GW2 competing with FF14:EW. The people who are going to buy EW are going to buy it and play it. The people who play GW2 will buy EoD, and if you play both? Well GW2 is free monthly, so people can still buy it and play it later.

 

FF14 competes more with WoW than GW2. 

Ff14 and gw2 are both story based mmos mmo and the content in 14 takes a while, for many players the entire month of november will be taken just from lvling in ff14. They absolutely compete.

 

Yes ppl can buy it and play it later but how many ppl will buy it on release to boost sales and then not touch it for however long ff14 decides to hold them?

[zealex.9410]

To add to my previous commend about a January release, September is poor because they barely get any time to market the expac (the game is still off ppl's radars because they havent said anything in a year plus), theres also two amazon mmos releasing in the west, lost ark and New world (which has had a fair amount of traction and coverage by the gaming scene online).

 

Nov its a bad time because they compete with the most succesful currently story based mmo out there (ff14). Finally, December is just afwul because ff14 is still late nov and its a vertical prog mmo, but even more improtandly Anet closes the studio every December for holidays. I wouldnt want the game to launch in a bad state and the offices to be closed for weeks nor would i want the studio to have a smaller holidays period after a tough 2 years to make sure Eod gets fixed fast.

 

Januarry is far enough from Ff14 and the studio is open once again so its by far the best time to ship an expac imo.

Edited June 19, 2021 by zealex.9410

[Adzekul.3104]

Some mega news on this in the July update post today. In my opinion, it feels like the right decision to delay the expansion slightly in order to ensure that it is right, and that there is less competition with other games on the release timing. These reasons have been highlighted here by many people. Thank you for contributing to the discussion.

[Azure Prower.8701]

On 6/18/2021 at 2:39 PM, KryTiKaL.3125 said:

 

And I imagine the people playing Wildstar and City of Heroes/Villains very much believed and thought the very same things. "We're still having fun", "They're still doing fine" and ultimately look where both of those games studios ended up. Granted City of Heroes found a new resurgence via a practically officially sanctioned private server but that was years after it was shut down.

 

Also why do you possibly think NCSoft may have been the ones insisting on an expansion? Because it generates revenue. They want to make money, of course they do. They are a company, ANet is a company. GW2 has been one of its lowest earning games next to Aion. B&S earned more than GW2 until later in 2020, and GW2 only barely edged out ahead of B&S. Then just considering Q1 of this year Aion jumped out way ahead of GW2 in earnings, likely due to the announcements and information on Aion Classic. NCSoft reported on general increases for those quarters but those were cumulative and factoring in every product they own, GW2 was only a small snippet of that. If you look at a release year for an expansion you can see GW2 making big jumps in revenue for that quarter and potentially the one after, but ultimately it has a pretty steep drop off. Why? GW2 has no staying power, its player retention is not good and you can see that in the earnings reports. If they stuck around, they'd buy things but they don't stick around for longer enough to end up buying things.

 

I get it, you and many others enjoy GW2 thats fine I have no qualms with that you do you I'll do me, we just disagree on the state of things. I think that you can't just ignore these circumstances and just believe everything is fine. This expansion will bring a surge of sales, but whether that revenue remains consistent or drops off steeply after the expansion is likely to determine if GW2 is going to continue to be around; or maybe we'll see a GW2 Classic show up as a worst case scenario.

I look at the state of the game after returning. Guilds I am involved in are dead. Friends are all gone. Forum activity is dismal compared to other MMO's forum activity. The writing is on the wall.

 

The same few will simply defend GW2 to the bitter end until shutdown. Rather than encourage improvement for the game.