Decrease of drop chance of Black Lion Claim Ticket Scraps?

I have done many weeks black lion key runs the last few month cause i am at 9 of 10 ticket scraps. and i have opened like 10 chests without a single scrap. I remembered back then i got like 1 scrap every 3 chests or so.Also the wiki drop research (https://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Black_Lion_Chest/Drop_rate) states somethin like 38% so did it got changed? Or do i just have really really really bad luck?Another friend made the same experience and got none in like 8. while another got a single scrap in 10 chests.

Anet will surely never ever comment on droprates, but yes I also believe it has been substantially lowered. I bought a batch of 25 keys a couple of weeks ago (still had gems from PoF purchase haha) and got very little scraps, I think it was like 1 or 2 of them. If that would hold up there is no way its worth buying them for even trying to get BL weapons. But of course it is a little luck too, got a free key by loot a little while later and a whole ticket dropped, whoopdidoo. Before, especially before the event item addition I recall quite frequent scrap drops.

There's substantial drop data available on Reddit for the current 'seasonal' variation of the BL Chest. And there's good reason to believe that the drop rate for scraps plus tickets is much lower. On the other hand, the chests also deliver a far greater number of random unlocks, notably a new guaranteed armor and a new guaranteed weapon skin consumable.

Thus, over all, the typical player is going to unlock as many new skins (if not more) potentially worth much more. However, they won't be in the form of BL weapon skins that you can choose to sell.

Is this good for the community? Or bad? Well, it depends on whether you value being limited to tradeable BL skins or whether you prefer getting more diverse but untradeable unlocks.

Among the side effects: the latest BL weapon set is worth about double compared to more recent offerings, partly because people seem to like the skins, but almost certainly because the ticket+scraps are dropping less frequently.

tl;dr evidence bears the OP's guess out: the ticket + scrap rate is substantially down. However, you get about the same number of unlocks as before; you just have less choice about which (and less freedom to sell what you get, although you'd still earn about as much as before).

Honestly you should get a guaranteed scrap every chest.

Don't forget that BL chests went from 3 drops, to 2 drops. They replaced the 3rd drop with a seasonal container drop ...... guaranteed to not be anything you want.

@Evil Octopi.8253 said:Don't forget that BL chests went from 3 drops, to 2 drops. They replaced the 3rd drop with a seasonal container drop ...... guaranteed to not be anything you want.

The 3rd drop was always a booster that hardly anybody wanted, so nothing changed there. The new seasonal container drop can at least be sold.

Since the end of Halloween I've been completing maps ont alts which gives, among other, either a transmutation charge or BL key. I did get a fait amount of keys and by opening chests I managed to gather enough scraps to make four BL tickets claims, but since Wintersday I haven't got a single one.

It's completely up to RNG...in 4 different sessions of opening BLC I got anywhere from 1 - 3 or 6 - 7 scraps from groups of 25 chests, and a total of 7 full tickets...that's out of about 250 or so chests total.

Well, there are more choices in the category that scraps fall from now.
Still, I just did a key run, and got a scrap...and a 4th slot item. /shrug

@Zaklex.6308 said:It's completely up to RNG...in 4 different sessions of opening BLC I got anywhere from 1 - 3 or 6 - 7 scraps from groups of 25 chests, and a total of 7 full tickets...that's out of about 250 or so chests total.

While it is RNG, the drop rate is almost certainly lower with the existing chest. There's drop data on about 200-300 chests available on Reddit etc, which is enough to determine whether there's been a change to the scrap rate (not enough to determine much of anything else, but it's plenty for stuff that drops often).

Hmmm it could be the chance of your luck? The resent key I got was maybe a month ago. But I was farming keys before that. I rarely don’t get the black lion ticket scraps.

If your talking about those scraps that take ten to get for a weapon or armor skin right? If that’s the case yea I rarely don’t get those. Are you farming them or buying? I get the key by map completion or get a character to level 10. But why YOU haven’t I have no idea. It’s probably your luck.

Definitely feels like it has lowered. I used to get them on a pretty regular basis, like almost 1 a chest on average. Now, I can go through 10 chests and barely get five.

Needless to say, I quit buying keys :-P

Sadly, it's completely random. RNG strikes again.

@"Ardenwolfe.8590" said:Sadly, it's completely random. RNG strikes again.

• Summary of 517 chests: 72 scraps, or 13.9% rate
• Previous drop rate: 38.6%

That's a nerf, not RNG.

@Illconceived Was Na.9781 said:

@"Ardenwolfe.8590" said:Sadly, it's completely random. RNG strikes again.

• Summary of 517 chests
  : 72 scraps, or 13.9% rate
• Previous drop rate: 38.6%

But aren't there more items in the same pool as the tickets now? If I remember correctly before the update there were 13 items in the common loot pool. Now there are 26 items if the wiki is correct. Wouldn't the addition of more items to the common loot pool cause the drop rate for some of these items to go down to spread it out? If this is the case then can we expect these rates to return to what they were when the seasonal chest go away assuming the current chest we have are not permanent.

@ImTasty.2163 said:

@Illconceived Was Na.9781 said:

@"Ardenwolfe.8590" said:Sadly, it's completely random. RNG strikes again.

• Summary of 517 chests
  : 72 scraps, or 13.9% rate
• Previous drop rate: 38.6%

It doesn't matter how many items are possible to determine if there is a nerf to the drop rate of scraps: it's one third of what it used to be; that cannot be explained by RNG. (The drop rate for items in the same rarity pool isn't identical: some "common" items are more common than others.)

I suppose now would be bad time to say I've gotten three out of five ticket scraps from my chests. That includes a mini ticket too. Also got the fiery griffon mount the first time too. One and only contract buy for Christmas thanks to my wife. But hey . . . it's definitely not RNG.

@Ardenwolfe.8590 said:I suppose now would be bad time to say I've gotten three out of five ticket scraps from my chests. That includes a mini ticket too. Also got the fiery griffon mount the first time too. One and only contract buy for Christmas thanks to my wife. But hey . . . it's definitely not RNG.

It's not bad to say what you discovered, but the wording afterwards confuses two different comparisons.

The OP's question is whether the drop rate has been nerfed. Do you think that 500 chests is enough data to establish that it's considerably lower in the current set of BL chests compared to the previous year? Generally speaking, getting at least 50 drops is usually enough to establish the true rate (or close to it) with high confidence... and in this case we have over 70 scraps from the data.

Some people, including yourself, have offered smaller data sets, indicating that some folks are getting plenty of scraps. That is RNG at work. With a drop rate of 13-14%, it's not that unlikely for someone opening 5 chests to get 3 scraps (and no, mini tickets don't count for this).

Most of the time when people worry about a nerf, they do so based on their narrow circumstances of their personal experience, which often lacks sufficient data or rigor to establish any sort of confidence in the comparison. In this case, the OP's data is definitely insufficient, since it was only 10 chests. In particular, with a drop rate of 38%, there's a 0.8% chance of getting 0 tickets: unusual, but not by itself suspicious.

However, it turns out that we do have enough new data to compare the old rate with the current one. We might not know the exact rate, but we can be very confident that it's much, much lower than before. So while 0 scraps in 10 chests is possible under the old rate, in this case, the OP's suspicions were correct. It's similar to the situation of a broken analog clock showing the correct time twice a day: the reason for the OP's belief might not have been scientific/mathematical in origin, but that doesn't mean they were wrong.

To reiterate and as it turns out, the OP was correct, even though they lacked the data to establish a change.

• The old data shows that the previous rate was about 35% and the new data shows it's closer to 13-14%; that's a nerf.
• Within that context, some people will see more than their share of scraps (good luck) and some less (bad luck).

edit: I should add that this is a nerf to the scrap drop rate. However, it might actually increase the skin-unlock value, since there are other guaranteed unlock consumables that now drop. There will be people who prefer fewer BL skins (worth little to them) and more chances to unlock high value skins.

I'll put it in layman terms then: Random is random. Trying to correlate something that may or may not have happened based on something like a random numbers generator is like trying to make sense of how many angels dance on the head of a pin based on the size of the pin. Really . . . sometimes the easiest explanation is the correct one.

Putting aside theory, he and his friends had bad luck. And I got three scraps in a row. And a rare mini. And the fire griffon. All in one turn or try. I.E. Good luck. Again . . . random. Regardless, until ANet says otherwise, it's pure speculation. But I'm all ears if ANet admits they stealth nerfed something as odd as the Black Lion ticket scraps for some unknown reason.

@Illconceived Was Na.9781 said:Thus, over all, the typical player is going to unlock as many new skins (if not more) potentially worth much more. However, they won't be in the form of BL weapon skins that you can choose to sell.

Is this good for the community? Or bad? Well, it depends on whether you value being limited to tradeable BL skins or whether you prefer getting more diverse but untradeable unlocks.

Could you link the reddit discussion please?

Thats the point... its even more random to get what you want.. with a completed ticket you could at least choose the item you want. While it is a good think that they bring back old weapons, i dont like how they do it... they could do it by making them buyable for tickets again.And well untradable just sucks in my opinion because it locks stuff again behind random lootboxes optained by real money/ timegated keyruns. Or behind no guaranteed drops / map completion.

@Illconceived Was Na.9781 said:

@Ardenwolfe.8590 said:I suppose now would be bad time to say I've gotten three out of five ticket scraps from my chests. That includes a mini ticket too. Also got the fiery griffon mount the first time too. One and only contract buy for Christmas thanks to my wife. But hey . . . it's definitely not RNG.

• The old data shows that the previous rate was about 35% and the new data shows it's closer to 13-14%; that's a nerf.
• Within that context, some people will see more than their share of scraps (good luck) and some less (bad luck).

Correct sum up, 0,8% to get 0 ticket for me but consindering that a friend of mine who does the keyruns with me had none in 10, which were total 20 keys... i came to 0,007% to get none. Of course assumed that the drop rate ist still about 38%. And that was something that made me curious.

Specialls i think it is sad when people buy keys with gems when they expect to get scraps like usually, but it got nerfed without a word. But well I think that is a problem with those stupid random lootboxes anyway... good that i dont pay for keys with gems. But maybe could be a reason for me to stop doing keyruns..

RNG is strong here, we all know that.But there are is also interesting statistic info available.What use has layman anecdote when we have scientist data?

In the O.J. trial, Dr. Henry Lee made an observation about common sense, experience, and science. It went something like this: If you see a cockroach in a plate of spaghetti, do I need to tell you that there are 3.5 roaches in the food or do you already know something is wrong with it?

The same applies with experience. We, or at least I, don't need data to tell me that after I won three items in a row what my chances are of winning said items. Hello? My chances are already 100% given that I got the items.. Does that mean someone else's chances are also 100%? Nope. It means it's a roll of the dice. And to the point? Just bought two keys. Got two armor set unlocks, gunmetal dye, Wintersday scrap (socks of all things) that sold for a few gold, and a ticket scrap.

Again . . . random, but maybe that's just me.

This game would be more fun if keys dropped more often. They cant be making that much money from people buying keys with real money (right? RIGHT?)...

Instead of forcing players to do "key runs" (un-fun), just have keys drop more often and let me do something with these chests!

I preferred getting scraps over unlockers. Especially armor unlockers are useless to me since I have everything in that category

@"pah.4931" said:This game would be more fun if keys dropped more often. They cant be making that much money from people buying keys with real money (right? RIGHT?)...

Instead of forcing players to do "key runs" (un-fun), just have keys drop more often and let me do something with these chests!

Given the way Gold>Gems spike every time keys go on sale, there's obviously a pretty big market for keys. As I can't imagine that the ratio of Gold>Gems>Keys vs Cash>Gems>Keys is drastically different from other stuff in the gemstore, there's probably a lot of cash being spent on keys.

I wouldn't be surprised if it's one of the biggest sellers in the gemstore.