Gem prices are going out of control

[Ashen.2907]

Also a new link-up in WvW. Some people will buy gems, many with gold, to switch servers.

[Arianth Moonlight.6453]

is this another "I want my lazy dailies back, WV bad" thread?

[kharmin.7683]

7 minutes ago, Arianth Moonlight.6453 said:

is this another "I want my lazy dailies back, WV bad" thread?

Where would you come up with that?  Have you not seen the price spike in gems over the past week?  How would you equate that with complaints about WV and losing the old daily system?

[bossdonut.1938]

no looks like they still want 10 bucks for 800 of them

[Darklord Roy.2514]

5 hours ago, nellone.5836 said:

Don't know exactly what is causing this, maybe all the "free gold" got from the wizard's vault, but the gems are getting absurd conversion prices, i was thinking it was pretty crazy when yesterday i saw 41golds for 100 gems, but today is going over 54!
Is it maybe the case to force the price at a fixed rate, like Anet already did in the past?
I hope for the best....

Sales. Literally just sales are causing this. Go back and check conversion cost histories compared to big ticket sales in the gem store, even before SOTO came out, and you'll see that there is a trend. This happens all the time, the reason it's spiking so high this particular time is because the sales are really, *really* high value right now and a lot of new/returning players want to take advantage of them.

WV might be contributing a bit to people having more gold to convert, since it is provably more profitable than the old daily system, but nowhere near as much as you seem to think it is. It is not the sole or even the PRIMARY reason for the price spikes. This is just a case of supply and demand, simple economics.

[Darklord Roy.2514]

35 minutes ago, kharmin.7683 said:

Where would you come up with that?  Have you not seen the price spike in gems over the past week?  How would you equate that with complaints about WV and losing the old daily system?

Because OP is directly blaming WV gold for the gem conversion price spikes lol.

[Arianth Moonlight.6453]

44 minutes ago, kharmin.7683 said:

Have you not seen the price spike in gems over the past week?

just like every now and then, people always blame something they don't like—the Silverwastes farm, the AFK farmers, whatever new farm comes around, the Wizard's Vault, etc., etc.

[Luthan.5236]

The" hardcore" sale ... should be pretty obious as a reason. I manily try to avoid converting. Using ingame gold that I farmed and gems only the ones I bought with real money. Only if I have bought gems left over and a few are missing (<100 or so) to get something - then I convert.

I was surprised when I saw the deluxe upgrade for HoT (last one I missed - now I have everything at deluxe) at 75 percent off (600 instead of 2400, saving 1800!). Even wiki (not up to date) listed at max 50 percent and with inflation and stuff ... and other sales prevously in the year (where they cut down on stuff - less discounts and over the last 1-2 years less free popular stuff like bonfires) this sale seems pretty good.

I bet everyone went crazy like "lets trade all the left over gold I don't need for gems and buy as much stuff as I can - next sale like this might not happen that soon again".

Edited November 27, 2023 by Luthan.5236

[kharmin.7683]

4 minutes ago, Arianth Moonlight.6453 said:

just like every now and then, people always blame something they don't like—the Silverwastes farm, the AFK farmers, whatever new farm comes around, the Wizard's Vault, etc., etc.

Taken out of context to the post that I quoted.

[Sobx.1758]

3 hours ago, Zera.9435 said:

Hey this is good news for me. I'm the guy that swipes for gems. Keep that exchange rate high. $100 for 100,000 gems, let's go!

Yeah, no. That's not how that works at all.

[Zera.9435]

1 hour ago, Sobx.1758 said:

Yeah, no. That's not how that works at all.

Oh right. I see the confusion now. I typed gems when I meant to say gold. Fixed it.

[nellone.5836]

5 hours ago, Schimmi.6872 said:

Do you have any proof for a fixed price? I checked the graph and yes there are some long flat parts from about Jan. - May 2018, but I also found posts that the API for the exchange was bugged and reported this wrong prices, so I see no evidence for a price manipulation here.

i don't have proofs, but i remember i was playing and looking the ingame prices, they were real!

  

3 hours ago, Arianth Moonlight.6453 said:

just like every now and then, people always blame something they don't like—the Silverwastes farm, the AFK farmers, whatever new farm comes around, the Wizard's Vault, etc., etc.

you are wrong mate, to be completely clear, i love WV system, i'm having a lot of fun with it and i'm more happy now than before.
I was simply trying to figure out what is happening right now, because i'm seeing the biggest spike like never before in the history of the game, so i was trying to think what we got of completely new that could have flipped stability in the conversion system, i want to repeat everyone that it was stable around 30 gold / 100 gems since 2016!!!

[Schimmi.6872]

14 minutes ago, nellone.5836 said:

i don't have proofs, but i remember i was playing and looking the ingame prices, they were real!

 

I can't remember any discussions from that time, but I guess, if there were some real signs of manipulation there would have been at least a bit of uproar, as that would call the whole exchange system into question. But the only thing I found till now was the discussion about the API bug:

[Danikat.8537]

14 minutes ago, nellone.5836 said:

i don't have proofs, but i remember i was playing and looking the ingame prices, they were real!

Just checking: when you said Anet fixed the price do you mean "high prices are a problem, so when they were lower the problem was fixed" or are you saying Anet manually changed the exchange rate to what they think it should be?

Price fixing is a specific term in English for artifically raising or lowering the price of goods entirely seperately from actual supply and demand, but it occured to me not everyone knows that and if there's a language barrier it's especially unclear, so it could be confusing things if people are using two different definitions.

But Anet have previously said they do not directly control the exchange rate for gold and gems and have never manually changed it since the game came out. They set what it started at on day 1 back in 2012, but since then it's been based on supply and demand. They could be lying about that of course, but if they were going to change it I think they'd make gems more expensive because then more people want to buy them with real money. Also any time the exchange rate has changed quickly there's been a reason - like the current sales - so if they do manually change it then they're very slow and subtle about it.

Of course Anet control what's in the gem store and what gold sinks are in the game, so they could manipulate the exchange rate that way, but if that's the case then it definitely looks like they wanted to make gems more expensive to get with gold, because they'd know from past data that sales make the exchange rate shoot up and they put loads of stuff on sale at the same time.

[Arianth Moonlight.6453]

30 minutes ago, nellone.5836 said:

i want to repeat everyone that it was stable around 30 gold / 100 gems since 2016!!!

We did have a couple of instances where people speculated a fixed price, but they never provided any proof. We also experienced mega-spikes before, but now that gold is worth less, it may be a factor. For example, I used to buy things worth 800 gems with less than 100g. Then the price spiked above 150g, which, of course, seems like nothing now, but at the time was almost or just twice the former price.

[Danikat.8537]

42 minutes ago, nellone.5836 said:

i don't have proofs, but i remember i was playing and looking the ingame prices, they were real!

  

you are wrong mate, to be completely clear, i love WV system, i'm having a lot of fun with it and i'm more happy now than before.
I was simply trying to figure out what is happening right now, because i'm seeing the biggest spike like never before in the history of the game, so i was trying to think what we got of completely new that could have flipped stability in the conversion system, i want to repeat everyone that it was stable around 30 gold / 100 gems since 2016!!!

https://gw2efficiency.com/currencies/gems Click on 'all' to see the full history.

That doesn't look very stable to me. The average across multiple years might not change much, but that doesn't mean there weren't a lot of variations day to day and week to week.

Between January 2016 and January 2023 I can see 3 big spikes and numerous smaller ones, with the highest price being 45g for 100 gems, in September 2019. That was during the Anniversay sale, which is usually the biggest sale of the year, although in the last few years it's been a lot more spread out with items discounted for a week or more instead of 1-2 days, which reduces the impact on the exchange rate.

Most of the current sales are ending tomorrow (in 16 hours) so after that the price of gems will start to drop again, as it always does after a sale.

[Ashen.2907]

Just a bit of advice for people looking to convert gold to gems:

Dont wait for sales, holidays, or the like. Convert your gold throughout the year as you acquire it. This way you will have a stockpile of gems available when those sales, or limited time return items, hit the store. 

Being upset about conversion rates during the holidays or big sales is like complaining about the lines at a big box store on Black Friday. 

[nellone.5836]

1 hour ago, Danikat.8537 said:

Just checking: when you said Anet fixed the price do you mean "high prices are a problem, so when they were lower the problem was fixed" or are you saying Anet manually changed the exchange rate to what they think it should be?

Price fixing is a specific term in English for artifically raising or lowering the price of goods entirely seperately from actual supply and demand, but it occured to me not everyone knows that and if there's a language barrier it's especially unclear, so it could be confusing things if people are using two different definitions.

But Anet have previously said they do not directly control the exchange rate for gold and gems and have never manually changed it since the game came out. They set what it started at on day 1 back in 2012, but since then it's been based on supply and demand. They could be lying about that of course, but if they were going to change it I think they'd make gems more expensive because then more people want to buy them with real money. Also any time the exchange rate has changed quickly there's been a reason - like the current sales - so if they do manually change it then they're very slow and subtle about it.

Of course Anet control what's in the gem store and what gold sinks are in the game, so they could manipulate the exchange rate that way, but if that's the case then it definitely looks like they wanted to make gems more expensive to get with gold, because they'd know from past data that sales make the exchange rate shoot up and they put loads of stuff on sale at the same time.

Oh maybe the language barrier is real, i said "fixed" but i meant freezing the variations like it can be seen in the graph, try to zoom in and look the graph between january and april 2018, you can see a long flat line.
I also think they did the opposite of their interest, infact they literaly flatlined a big spike and then also lowered the price, so i do not see that like a malicious move, at the time i thought they did a good move for the health of the market, like it happens in real life when they close stock markets under heavy crazy speculations.
Maybe Schimmi.6872 is right and it was only an API bug.... it was an old story and i remember it like real, but i want to give you benefit of the doubt.
I feel sorry for my english guys please don't go wild with me XD

[fatihso.7258]

14 hours ago, Parasite.5389 said:

the prices are increasing because people are converting more gold to gems because of the sales, not because of "Free gold"

This does not change the fact they are liquidating all they can at vault rewards including the bags of coins and mystic coins therefore it has a constant in why the volume is high. 

[Cyninja.2954]

Good news, most of you are right and wrong at the same time.

The current spike in conversion is very likely originating in many different factors benefitting a higher gem for gold cost, and not a single one.

 

1. The overall higher supply of liquid gold will be a factor (though less than many might think). The biggest factor here would be conversion of existing gold (pre WV gold) into gems (aka many players with gold reserves deciding to make use of those). 

2. The sale happening right now will be a large factor

3. Looking at the out of game economic situation, there is a high chance more players will try to save on spending "real money", which again shifts the supply of gems and gold in the supply

4. a likely significant amount of "new" or returning players which might desire many of the items on sale (and thanks to the WV, fast access to gold is available)

5. The general lack of players double checking if a sale payed via a gold to gem conversion actually ends up cheaper compared to not spiked rates (most items often are not), and the fear of missing out on a deal and gem prices not returning to pre spiked rates

 

In order to "blame" any of these individual aspects we would need to know which of them have the highest impact. We can draw some comparisons to past spikes and make assumptions, but that is basically it. 

My assumption:

the sales right now are VERY discounted, mostly benefitting players buying gems (not converting), which in turn might be happening relatively less compared to past sales due to out of game economics while at the same time a far larger amount of players now have more disposable gold and are encouraged to convert it. Mix in a fear of missing out on the sales and fear of a new higher than pre spike conversion rates normal, and even more players are optong to convert now.

If I'd have to pin point 1 primary reason for the spike, I'd say it's the massive sale setting this off (going by similar past occurances) with all the other factors pilling on top. 

TL;DR:

Great time for buying gems with real money and making use of the sales. Great time to buy gems and convert to gold for players who do so. Not so great time for converting gold to gems, better do that not during sales.

Edited November 28, 2023 by Cyninja.2954

[Holmindeboks.3490]

Seems they made a mistake by players gotten rich to easy. And you know. Rich ppl never buy gems with cash because of the option to buy gems with gold. There is a Big sale (not really) going on. Last time when there was a sale it was 25% off and the gold to gems price increased exactly by 25% and that was around 160 - 170 gold for 400 gems. Yesterday i saw the gem price for 400 gems was 211 Gold!! 
 

and ppl say that anet CANT control the gold/gems balance. BUT they can. I was thinking that anet just can buy their own gems with gold. To manipulate the balance. Maybe not fair but i would not be surpriced if this is happening. Because everyone gets crazy while its black friday and we want to spend on things that normally are way to expensive. So they use (abuse) black friday. 
 

if anet buy their own gems then the gold to gems is so crazy high that players spend cash for gems. This current situation is a win - win for anet. Ppl buy gems with cash. Ppl who are poor and cant buy gems with cash are out of gold. Others who are able to spend cash are buying more because you get much more gold from gems now. 

now everyone thinks, nice we got something to get rich easy (gold) and you know  rich ppl spend more if they are sure they can get much gold easy. Now everyone spend all their gold till empty ingame wallet, and then the gold treasure gets nerfed and players are out of gold. And when they want something from the store they have to spend cash because all their gold is gone/spend. 

211 gold for 400 gems. For a sold legendary you can buy 2 mount skins and something small. 

Edited November 29, 2023 by Holmindeboks.3490

[Cyninja.2954]

10 minutes ago, Holmindeboks.3490 said:

Seems they made a mistake by players gotten rich to easy. And you know. Rich ppl never buy gems with cash because of the option to buy gems with gold. There is a Big sale (not really) going on. Last time when there was a sale it was 25% off and the gold to gems price increased exactly by 25% and that was around 160 - 170 gold for 400 gems. Yesterday i saw the gem price for 400 gems was 211 Gold!!

The sale was more than 25% off, also what was 25% off? It makes a huge difference as to how many items are discounted. I recall a LOT of disappointment last year when expansions were not discounted for example.

Quote

and ppl say that anet CANT control the gold/gems balance. BUT they can. I was thinking that anet just can buy their own gems with gold. To manipulate the balance. Maybe not fair but i would not be surpriced if this is happening. Because everyone gets crazy while its black friday and we want to spend on things that normally are way to expensive. So they use (abuse) black friday. 

if anet buy their own gems then the gold to gems is so crazy high that players spend cash for gems. This current situation is a win - win for anet. Ppl buy gems with cash. Ppl who are poor and cant buy gems with cash are out of gold. Others who are able to spend cash are buying more because you get much more gold from gems now. 

No one is saying Arenanet can't manipulate the exchanges. People are saying that there is no indicator that they would do so (or that there would need to be a reason for them to do so). They also wouldn't have to "buy" gold or gems. They could literally just change the 2 supplies as they see fit, or change the algorithm.

Still doesn't explain why they would when everything we see can be easily explained with napkin economics. There is no need for a conspiracy theory assumption behind every minute thing.

What do you know, sales are ending and the spike is dropping. Magic! or just again basic consumer reactions.

[Danikat.8537]

I noticed the price starting to drop yesterday, just a few hours after the sales ended, although it's still very high.

If that keeps happening depends on what happens next, especially what else comes out in the gem store and what new discounts there are.

If Anet did want to shift it dramatically I think the best way would be to add a new gold sink that's appealing to the type of people who would convert gems to gold. The times I remember it dropping quickly were when new legendries launch (although sometimes complicated by sales at the same time) and about a month after PoF came out when the griffon was discovered and players were trying to get 250g to unlock it.

[IAmNotMatthew.1058]

49 minutes ago, Danikat.8537 said:

I noticed the price starting to drop yesterday, just a few hours after the sales ended, although it's still very high.

Clearly WV's to blame, it's just a coincidence that the conversion rates going up and down align with the sales. It's also Anet manually skyrocketing the prices to milk the players! 

[Solvar.7953]

I do think WV has added more gold to the game - you still get ~2 gold/day if you do the dailies (1 from daily chest, and another for 30 AA, and you get more than 30 AA if you do the dailies).  And then they added weeklies which add another 750 AA (or 25 gold).  And this does not even include the discounted gold that costs less than 30 AA.

One pretty quickly buys all the non gold items from the WV, so is left making ~50 gold/week doing dailies/weeklies.  If Anet wants to reduce gold coming into the game, they should add more repeatable non gold options to the WV that are actually worthwhile.