Black Lion Chests now cost more than rares

[nekretaal.6485]

As the title says, Black Lion Chests are now more expensive on the TP than certain rares.

Black Lion Chests have always been inexpensive, to get players interested in buying the keys. But, today a stack of Black Lion Chests might run you 15 gold or more. Few players buy keys in this amount, but the ones who do might be put off by the high cost of the Chests even before factoring the high cost of the keys.

There are 87k listings of the keys but the price keeps rising, possibly indicating that somebody is trying to get rich monopolizing supply. This person, whoever he or she is, is trying to get rich off of Anet, to leech some small portion of the monies that fund the company for his own account.

It's about time that Anet, even if temporarily, floods the market with BL chest drops.

[crashburntoo.7431]

The change in the loot table coupled with Glyphs has increased demand substantially, but it will even out on its own. If they did bump up the drop rate slightly to adjust the balanced price, it would have to wait until they evaluate the real balance point. We're still in flux.

If a stack of BLC's costs a user 15-20 gold, it's nothing when compared to the cost of the keys. They can make that up with the sale of 1-2 glittered weapon skins.

Edit: Self-imposed grammar policing

[Tanner Blackfeather.6509]

Looking over a three-month span, this is likely just a temporary spike related to the new drops. We've seen other short spikes like this a couple times.

The price has been rising since mid-december - when was it the Statuettes were added?

[ImTasty.2163]

No need. There was a recent change to the chest drops and they added in glyphs. It's gone up in demand because you have the "got to have it now" people that will play high prices for some of the new items. Once that rush is over prices will begin to even back out. They might end with an overall higher value but I highly doubt they will maintain this current worth for very long.

[Menadena.7482]

I rarely buy chests, pretty much when I happen to get a key (which I do not seek out). The cost of them has always been pretty volatile.

[Danikat.8537]

I don't think Anet has been keeping the price of chests low to encourage key sales, I think it's just that until recently most people got far more chests than they'd use. Bear in mind most people playing a game with microtransactions will never spend any additional money past the purchase price, and until relatively recently it was generally considered better value to buy BLC items you wanted from the TP (even if you were converting gems to gold to do it) and it's not surprising the chests didn't sell well.

I think what changed that was mainly the addition of account bound items to the chests, that's when I first noticed the price starting to go up. But the fact that they update the chests more often and added things like the stattuettes to give each chest a guarenteed base value probably helps too.

[Illconceived Was Na.9781]

@nekretaal.6485 said:As the title says, Black Lion Chests are now more expensive on the TP than certain rares.The fact that rares have tanked and BL chests have spiked is moot. Minimum key costs are 84 gems, i.e. about 20-25 gold each. How does it possibly matter if BL chests cost more than 10 silver each?

[Ardenwolfe.8590]

Thank God my wife hoards these things. Needed sixty statuettes to get that sweet mail carrier. :p

[Biff.5312]

They're still a pittance. Meanwhile the glyphs will make the cost of mats plummet, so there should be net savings for purchasers.

[Just a flesh wound.3589]

The OP has a point. Because of the improvements in what they offer demand has increased substantially while supply has not. Back in November there was 1.6M in the trading post. Now there is less than 100K and prices are spiking. Prices of Black Lion chests should be something that Arenanet is interested in as it could influence the purchase and use of a gemstore item.

[Illconceived Was Na.9781]

@Just a flesh wound.3589 said:Prices of Black Lion chests should be something that Arenanet is interested in as it could influence the purchase and use of a gemstore item.

Not until the price is around a gold or so. The monthly fluctuations in the gold:gem transfer rate already influences the gold cost of keys by 8-12 gold, typically by 4-6 gold within the same week, if not same day (outside of sales, too).

And even then, it ends up being an interesting form of wealth transfer: most people don't acquire keys as fast as they get chests, so it's nice for them to sell off their extras. And the costs of using a key are only nominally increased.

I know we're all used to BL chests being nearly free, because they cost merely coppers for so long. But I don't see any issue with the market value of the chests going up.

[Just a flesh wound.3589]

@Illconceived Was Na.9781 said:

@Just a flesh wound.3589 said:Prices of Black Lion chests should be something that Arenanet is interested in as it could influence the purchase and use of a gemstore item.

Not until the price is around a gold or so. The monthly fluctuations in the gold:gem transfer rate already influences the gold cost of keys by 8-12 gold, typically by 4-6 gold within the same week, if not same day (outside of sales, too).

And even then, it ends up being an interesting form of wealth transfer: most people don't acquire keys as fast as they get chests, so it's nice for them to sell off their extras. And the costs of using a key are only nominally increased.

I know we're all used to BL chests being nearly free, because they cost merely coppers for so long. But I don't see any issue with the market value of the chests going up.

It’s not whether players have an issue, it’s whether ANet has an issue as Black Lion Chests are directly tied to an important money generator. Historically drop rate of chests has far exceeded demand and were very cheap. Presumably this is what ANet wants as they would not want a barrier to the purchase and use of Black Lion keys. Now however demand is exceeding supply and if it were to continue then the price of chests may rise to the point where it’s a consideration when using keys, which would decrease ANet’s income.

[Pifil.5193]

I don't see why it's all that important that a stack of chests might cost 15g when a stack of keys would cost at least 5,000g.

[Just a flesh wound.3589]

@Pifil.5193 said:I don't see why it's all that important that a stack of chests might cost 15g when a stack of keys would cost at least 5,000g.

Because unlike other items that drop in game chests are an item that tries to get people to spend money in the gemstore. For that reason ANet has a direct interest in chests being plentiful and cheap. Chests that go above the price of someone willing to roll the dice to see what they’ll get is a price that reduces key purchases and ANet’s income.

[Blocki.4931]

@Just a flesh wound.3589 said:

@Pifil.5193 said:I don't see why it's all that important that a stack of chests might cost 15g when a stack of keys would cost at least 5,000g.

Because unlike other items that drop in game chests are an item that tries to get people to spend money in the gemstore. For that reason ANet has a direct interest in chests being plentiful and cheap. Chests that go above the price of someone willing to roll the dice to see what they’ll get is a price that reduces key purchases and ANet’s income.

But you still fail to mention why that is an issue

The fact that more chests than keys drop is barely worth mentioning

[Just a flesh wound.3589]

@Blocki.4931 said:

@Just a flesh wound.3589 said:

@Pifil.5193 said:I don't see why it's all that important that a stack of chests might cost 15g when a stack of keys would cost at least 5,000g.

Because unlike other items that drop in game chests are an item that tries to get people to spend money in the gemstore. For that reason ANet has a direct interest in chests being plentiful and cheap. Chests that go above the price of someone willing to roll the dice to see what they’ll get is a price that reduces key purchases and ANet’s income.

But you still fail to mention why that is an issue

The fact that more chests than keys drop is barely worth mentioning

I did mention why it’s an issue.

I’ll restate it.

This item can’t be considered alone like other drops in the game. It’s directly tied to a gemstore item and to ANet’s income. It has no value besides that of a gemstore linked item. For that reason its price should only be considered in how it affects the number of keys bought. If the price is low then it has little or no affect. As the price increases it decreases the perceived value of the Black Lion key and decreases key purchases (and ANet’s income).

Throughout the game’s history chest drops were higher than demand. Now chest drops are lower than demand. Supply is dropping and prices are spiking. Since chests are a requirement to using keys then increases in price raises the cost of buying keys and decreases the perceived value of opening chests, which decreases key purchases (and ANet’s income). ANet has a direct interest in keeping chest prices down and historically chests have been plentiful and cheap. With supply dropping this means ANet should increase the drop rate to make sure their income from keys isn’t affected.

[Illconceived Was Na.9781]

@Just a flesh wound.3589 said:For that reason ANet has a direct interest in chests being plentiful and cheap.My point is that (a) they remain plentiful and (b) 10s or even 1g is 'cheap'. We might not be used to it, but that's a different issue.

Or let's put it another way: of the subset of people who willingly choose to spend US$1/key or 20-25g/key, how many of them are less likely to do so if they run out of chests? How many of them are likely to run out of chests regularly? How much less likely are they to spend on keys?

Presumably ANet has data and simulations that predict what happens if the price rises to 10 or 20s per chest. If they aren't concerned, then I choose not to worry about it. Plenty of others things that ANet does that are worth my time to try to change.

[Just a flesh wound.3589]

@Illconceived Was Na.9781 said:

@Just a flesh wound.3589 said:For that reason ANet has a direct interest in chests being plentiful and cheap.My point is that (a) they remain plentiful and (b) 10s or even 1g is 'cheap'. We might not be used to it, but that's a different issue.

Or let's put it another way: of the subset of people who willingly choose to spend US$1/key or 20-25g/key, how many of them are less likely to do so if they run out of chests? How many of them are likely to run out of chests regularly? How much less likely are they to spend on keys?

Presumably ANet has data and simulations that predict what happens if the price rises to 10 or 20s per chest. If they aren't concerned, then I choose not to worry about it. Plenty of others things that ANet does that are worth my time to try to change.

I agree that the price right now (probably) isn’t of issue. However both the supply and price are not within historical norms, which (prices and supply) presumably are what ANet wishes. The point is more that demand is outstripping supply and that the increase in price and future increases are something that will affect key purchases. If it continues then increasing drop rate will be something that ANet will need to do to protect their income.

Keys (and chests) after all are luxury items and people are sensitive to price increases for luxury items. Just because ANet has acted yet doesn’t mean they aren’t watching the supply and price of an item that affects their income.

[Nuka Cola.8520]

I bought 2 chests in 6 years. Lets just say i couldn't care less what's the price, not like the keys drop in this game.

[Talindra.4958]

Wait a minute.. I hv stacks of it....time to sell

[Inculpatus cedo.9234]

I've never purchased a Chest. They still seem to drop as often.
Perhaps, the supply is decreasing because players are speculating (just a bit - I seem to remember that happening once [or more] before) as they see prices increasing, and not only because they need the Chests for Keys. I suppose only ArenaNet knows, for sure.

[OriOri.8724]

The keys are so expensive compared to a chest that I don't understand how you can complain about the cost of a chest honestly. If you have enough to afford 250 keys, then spending even 100 gold for the one stack of chests is a small amount for you

[Cragga the Eighty Third.60]

In addition to the statuettes, the popular Wild Magic Glider, the color-forged mini collections, and the glyphs, don't forget that keys went on sale in March. People who splurged on discounted keys may have helped drive the price up, too.

[Ze Dos Cavalos.6132]

If it costs 15g for a stack of chests is definitely a bad thing, its a small amount when you compare to the cost of keys but every little bit adds up.

[yann.1946]

Well if prices are rising it just means more people are buying keys. I presume they consider this a good thing ;)