Cursed Account

[Jojo.6140]

I dont think that people are getting good drops left and right. Its just that people that do get something valuable are much more likely to tell that than people who dont. Take the TD meta for example. People who get the Chak Egg Sac will very likely ping it in map chat, but people who dont get it arent likely to write that (or else every meta you would have 50 people telling in map chat that they didnt get anything).

[Ara.8540]

@Jura.2170 said:You.Are.So.Lucky.

^^

Haha thanks Jura. It definitely was a good one. The thing with it though, was that at the time, I'd been running all four HoT metas every day for probably... 7-8 months before I saw it. And that's 3 TM's in DS, 1 in VB, 1 in AB, and 1 (sometimes) in TD. So that's what... over a 1,000 TM's before pulling one? So by no means an easy drop lol!

[Turkeyspit.3965]

@Ara.8540 said:

@Jura.2170 said:You.Are.So.Lucky.

^^

Haha thanks Jura. It definitely was a good one. The thing with it though, was that at the time, I'd been running all four HoT metas every day for probably... 7-8 months before I saw it. And that's 3 TM's in DS, 1 in VB, 1 in AB, and 1 (sometimes) in TD. So that's what... over a 1,000 TM's before pulling one? So by no means an easy drop lol!

I have a guildy who farmed every treasure mushroom daily because he wanted those boots. He farmed mats for MF food and banners, even though I'm sure he knew they likely didn't impact the drop rate. Months and months and months. Finally one day we were in a Fractal together and he got Zap as a drop. He used that to craft Bolt, sold it, and used the money to buy the invisible boots off the TP :)

[Illconceived Was Na.9781]

@"Turkeyspit.3965" said:...one day we were in a Fractal together and he got Zap as a drop. He used that to craft Bolt, sold it, and used the money to buy the invisible boots off the TP :)

The game is designed to allow us that opportunity... and if it never comes around, we get enough "trash loot" on a regular basis that we can fund anything we want. True, we can't afford everything we want, or necessarily even most of it; it's designed to offer us the choice of our own priorities, not the game's.

So in the end, we don't get "lucky;" we get options & alternatives.

[sorudo.9054]

ppl talk about 20G an hour but i barely get 2G a week and that's with selling mats.......i also never get anything useful from drops or chests.

[Illconceived Was Na.9781]

@sorudo.9054 said:ppl talk about 20G an hour but i barely get 2G a week and that's with selling mats.......i also never get anything useful from drops or chests.

Dailies are 2g for 5-20 minutes effort. Why are you limiting yourself to 2g/week?

[sorudo.9054]

@Illconceived Was Na.9781 said:

@sorudo.9054 said:ppl talk about 20G an hour but i barely get 2G a week and that's with selling mats.......i also never get anything useful from drops or chests.

Dailies are 2g for 5-20 minutes effort. Why are you limiting yourself to 2g/week?

i don't limit myself, i just don't enjoy jumping hoops, doing boring stuff.

[Magnus Godrik.5841]

Yeah i feel the same at times. But then all of a sudden i get the deathly paudrens and deathly mantle from armor unlocks back to back. Well worth the 45 keys i used to get the premium mount.

[Turkeyspit.3965]

@sorudo.9054 said:

@Illconceived Was Na.9781 said:

@sorudo.9054 said:ppl talk about 20G an hour but i barely get 2G a week and that's with selling mats.......i also never get anything useful from drops or chests.

Dailies are 2g for 5-20 minutes effort. Why are you limiting yourself to 2g/week?

i don't limit myself, i just don't enjoy jumping hoops, doing boring stuff.

So why do you characterize it so negatively given you make the choice to restrict the amount of gold you earn?

[DeanBB.4268]

I bought a dozen winter gifts last night for the heck of it (no real time to play until maybe the end of the month) and out popped a 311g infusion. Sold! :)

[Illconceived Was Na.9781]

@DeanBB.4268 said:I bought a dozen winter gifts last night for the heck of it (no real time to play until maybe the end of the month) and out popped a 311g infusion. Sold! :)

Nice! Congrats.

[AoTsuki.8675]

@DeanBB.4268 said:I bought a dozen winter gifts last night for the heck of it (no real time to play until maybe the end of the month) and out popped a 311g infusion. Sold! :)

I opened 2500 boxes, nothing of worth

[Ara.8540]

@"Illconceived Was Na.9781" said:So in the end, we don't get "lucky;" we get options & alternatives.

So true, and one of the things I love most about GW2. Other games punish you hard if RNG/luck isn't on your side. GW2 gives you other paths to get what you want (for the most part).

[sorudo.9054]

@Turkeyspit.3965 said:

@sorudo.9054 said:

@Illconceived Was Na.9781 said:

@sorudo.9054 said:ppl talk about 20G an hour but i barely get 2G a week and that's with selling mats.......i also never get anything useful from drops or chests.

Dailies are 2g for 5-20 minutes effort. Why are you limiting yourself to 2g/week?

i don't limit myself, i just don't enjoy jumping hoops, doing boring stuff.

So why do you characterize it so negatively given you make the choice to restrict the amount of gold you earn?

you missed the point, it's about what the account get, not what everyone can get passively.

[Illconceived Was Na.9781]

@sorudo.9054 said:

@Turkeyspit.3965 said:

@sorudo.9054 said:

@Illconceived Was Na.9781 said:

@sorudo.9054 said:ppl talk about 20G an hour but i barely get 2G a week and that's with selling mats.......i also never get anything useful from drops or chests.

Dailies are 2g for 5-20 minutes effort. Why are you limiting yourself to 2g/week?

i don't limit myself, i just don't enjoy jumping hoops, doing boring stuff.

So why do you characterize it so negatively given you make the choice to restrict the amount of gold you earn?

you missed the point, it's about what the account get, not what everyone can get passively.

The thread asks whether gw2 accounts have an associated luck that forever determines whether the player gets low-rate drops or not. The evidence says no. ANet says no. Having difficulty figuring out how to earn 2g or 20g (whether in an hour, a day, or a week) is an entirely different issue.

[AoTsuki.8675]

3500 boxes, nothing.Time to end the pain.

[sorudo.9054]

@Illconceived Was Na.9781 said:

@sorudo.9054 said:

@Turkeyspit.3965 said:

@sorudo.9054 said:

@Illconceived Was Na.9781 said:

@sorudo.9054 said:ppl talk about 20G an hour but i barely get 2G a week and that's with selling mats.......i also never get anything useful from drops or chests.

Dailies are 2g for 5-20 minutes effort. Why are you limiting yourself to 2g/week?

i don't limit myself, i just don't enjoy jumping hoops, doing boring stuff.

So why do you characterize it so negatively given you make the choice to restrict the amount of gold you earn?

you missed the point, it's about what the account get, not what everyone can get passively.

The thread asks whether gw2 accounts have an associated luck that forever determines whether the player gets low-rate drops or not. The evidence says no. ANet says no. Having difficulty figuring out how to earn 2g or 20g (whether in an hour, a day, or a week) is an entirely different issue.

ok, so after 6 years i only got 2 keys dropped, never a pre-cursor and never anything worth anything good, the evidence says YES.

[Illconceived Was Na.9781]

@sorudo.9054 said:ok, so after 6 years i only got 2 keys dropped, never a pre-cursor and never anything worth anything good, the evidence says YES.Sorry, no, that tell us little about how luck works in the game. You could be playing for 100 years, but if you primarily run dungeons and RP, it would be very very lucky to get any BL keys at all.

And no, we can't rely on the memory of a single player to decide whether specific accounts are lucky or not; humans are incredibly poor at keeping track of lucky drops. But even if we were good at paying attention to everything that's every dropped for us even after more than a few days, the results of a single player isn't evidence of a pattern. We need to have data from 1000s of accounts to compare.

People who have industrial-strength production lines for precursors have incredibly long periods in which they get none and sometimes a run of 7 forges of getting two precursors. By it's very nature, luck runs in streaks. And we can't tell if your bad luck is a result of bad 'seed', bad software, or is to be expected given how many drop opportunities we've seen.

One of my buddies gets more precursors than one of my other buddies. But the first one throws 4 rares and 4 exotics in the forge nearly every day, while the other never does that. Another buddy of mine is constantly getting fractal weapon skin drops, many more than others in their static, but considers that bad luck... because it's literally the same skin about a dozen times.. and they haven't gotten hardly any of the other 18 skins.

tl;dr all we really know is that you've never gotten a precursor; that's unfortunate, but it's not necessarily evidence of extraordinarily bad luck, let alone one that makes it worth considering the hypothesis that some accounts are programmed to be unluckier than others.

[Blood Red Arachnid.2493]

I've gotten a crap ton of good drops. Several precursors, invisible boots, two cosmic infusions, and even that karma drop from harvesting ascended amulets. All in all, I've received over 5k gold in rare drops alone. Of course, I didn't get any of these drops until relatively recently.

There's a super secret trick to it. You see, accounts have a favor slider. I'm not sure if this is an overall game buff, or if it is a flag that depletes once you get a good drop. What you need to do is gain the favor of developers, who will then adjust the favor slider on your account to get better drops. To keep all of the numbers even, it will automatically counter-balance the average against other, non-noticeable accounts. This is necessary, since the odds need to increase 10-fold just to get one person good drops. So you see, unless you're one of the favored ones, the chances are you won't get any good drops at all.

I know this all sounds petty and outlandish and impractical, and a pure RNG system would be much easier to manage...

[mauried.5608]

RNGs are a necessary evil in MMOs , as there has to be some method of distributing the really good stuff in an extremely limited way so that item inflation doesnt occur.For small sample sizes which is the case in MMOs, RNGs seem unfair , as the distribution of good stuff isnt uniform, but thats what you would expect.Unfortunately it can lead to perverse outcomes of some people getting really good drops and others getting nothing for doing essentially the same thing.

[Danikat.8537]

Hows this for bad luck: last night I did the 'curious bowl' mini game in Desert Highlands. It's 3 rounds of one of those mini games where you pick between two random chests and if you get the right one you move on to the next room. The Wiki tells me it's completely random and there's a 1 in 8 chance of getting all 3 right in the same attempt. It took me 16 tries to get to the end. So my lucky was twice as bad as average.

(Yes I know that's not how averages actually work and if I went back and did it another 84 times, or more, it would average out to one in 8 attempts succeeding, probably including at some point getting two successful runs in a row. But I'm not keen on spending 84 gold to reach average luck when the loot isn't worth that much, and the above is how human interpretations of averages and luck work.)

[Illconceived Was Na.9781]

@Danikat.8537 said:Hows this for bad luck: last night I did the 'curious bowl' mini game in Desert Highlands. It's 3 rounds of one of those mini games where you pick between two random chests and if you get the right one you move on to the next room. The Wiki tells me it's completely random and there's a 1 in 8 chance of getting all 3 right in the same attempt. It took me 16 tries to get to the end. So my lucky was twice as bad as average.

(Yes I know that's not how averages actually work and if I went back and did it another 84 times, or more, it would average out to one in 8 attempts succeeding, probably including at some point getting two successful runs in a row. But I'm not keen on spending 84 gold to reach average luck when the loot isn't worth that much, and the above is how human interpretations of averages and luck work.)

For what it's worth, the chance of going 15 rounds of failure is 13%. For people going 8 rounds and stopping, nearly 66% will get the achievement by then.

[Dawdler.8521]

@"Illconceived Was Na.9781" said:The thread asks whether gw2 accounts have an associated luck that forever determines whether the player gets low-rate drops or not. The evidence says no. ANet says no. Having difficulty figuring out how to earn 2g or 20g (whether in an hour, a day, or a week) is an entirely different issue.Actually the evidence says yes, but Anet will deny it.

Long ago - before even MF - accounts suffered an odd issue where they didnt award loot. They could do an event start to finish killing dozens of mobs and get bronze at best, others touched a couple mobs at the end and got gold (ie what is "normal"). It was consistent for those accounts.

[sevenDEADLY.5281]

TLDR: rng is rng and the people who don't understand how rng works diagnose themselves with mystic spirtual voodoo that have placed curses and hexes on their accounts because... reasons.

[Klipso.8653]

This game has a habit of throwing massive amounts of garbage into your bags, none of it useful. It distracts from the reality that you're really only picking up trash. The amount of times you'll actually loot anything worthwhile is probably only once or twice a year.