Black lion chest drop rates nerfed?

Has anyone been opening BL chests for vermillion chair? Swear I've opened 30+ and not a single uncommon. Curious on drop rates others are experiencing?

About 1-2 weeks ago I opened 1 chest from map completion and got that new shiny cape.I think you were just unlucky and I was really lucky.

normal chest are terrible, you need golden keys for that

Just luck of the draw (or lack thereof).There's a 4% chance of opening 30 chests in a row with nothing better than common.

Roughly speaking, to have a sense of whether the odds have changed, we'd want data from a stack of keys.

I only opened six and got zero uncommon or better. Last month I opened one and got the turtle. Outside of that turtle I really don't get good stuff from those boxes. Still, they are fun to open on occasion.

Drop rates have always favored common results in my experience since launch.

RNG at play here. Never been lucky or as lucky as some players/friends/guildmates. Had a friend that can draw mounts and such with 1 key 3x in a row, while it took me 28-36+ keys for one. Eg 39 keys for Humming Bird Skimmer. Unless there's an algorithm that effects the drop rate eg. AP, Magic Find etc.

@Super Hayes.6890 said:Drop rates have always favored common results in my experience since launch.

Seems that way for me, certainly. I learned very early not to indulge in keys. Poor RNG kept my money in my wallet.

Opened up 25 chests, as always. Got the Sand Lion skin (now just need to get the warclaw at some point) and the Vermilion Throne.... Too bad the Vermilion Wings don't show when you are on the chair...

I haven't opened any chests recently but I've had similar runs of bad luck in the past. When the whale glider was one of the drops I must have used nearly 50 keys and didn't get it, and got very few uncommon drops overall. I can't remember exactly how many I used but I had about 35 keys saved up from various places, and did as many key farm runs as I could (including some where I did the level 40 story too) in the time it was available and didn't get it.

It's extremely frustrating when it happens, but not outside of normal distribution given the info we have on drop rates from people who have tracked them previously.

Oh and here I thought you were talking about if we got less black lion chests.Yes we do since we got so many they were 1 copper a piece so anet nerf them.

According to the drop rate research on the Wiki (https://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Black_Lion_Chest/Drop_rate), the chance to get an uncommon drop is 0.081, which translates to 8.1% per key. The chance does not improve regardless of number of attempts. The result you obtained is certainly possible with the existing drop rates, so there is no basis to believe the rates have changed, especially with such a small sample size.

It's important to remember that whether you believe BLCs' are gambling or not, the mechanics are very similar to gambling. That means, among other things, that while the occasional user will get lucky, over all attempts, the house (ANet) will always win.

RNG is RNG. Sometimes I have great luck, sometimes I have terrible luck. I like to get 25 keys when a new batch of BLC contents comes out, if I have the money and if the uncommons interest me. Was hoping for the Dark Matter cape this time, but nope. That's OK, at least I didn't get that ugly Warclaw skin, and I got some nice random things in wardrobe unlocks (Deathly Avian Mantle Skin, woo!).

I've always found it best to view the keys as an optional monthly subscription. This solves two arguments for me; the support anet with a sub and lootboxes are bad arguments. Now neither issue bothers me at all.

Every failed key is another statuette toward something good. Not to mention that some of the common drops are still useful. I key farm a lot and never have to worry about running out of transformation charges, etc.

considering that the casino is never going to reveal win rates fixed into it's slot machines, the only way to know is to give a good sample size (1000 or more) and post the stats. Doing this also favors the casino.

These things usually just give me repair cannisters and one to two of those black lion tokens. Which is an improvement over 2013 when... they just gave repair cannisters...

Sometimes they give a 'guaranteed wardrobe unlock' which always manages to find that one 'common' item I missed... and then next time... somehow manages to find another one that I missed even though I spent a few hours in the trading post buying every single last white, blue, and green piece of gear that was a locked skin just to avoid having that happen... it happens anyway...

So... meh...

@Kichwas.7152 said:These things usually just give me repair cannisters and one to two of those black lion tokens. Which is an improvement over 2013 when... they just gave repair cannisters...

Sometimes they give a 'guaranteed wardrobe unlock' which always manages to find that one 'common' item I missed... and then next time... somehow manages to find another one that I missed even though I spent a few hours in the trading post buying every single last white, blue, and green piece of gear that was a locked skin just to avoid having that happen... it happens anyway...

So... meh...

That is so true about the wardrobe unlocks ?

@Super Hayes.6890 said:

@Kichwas.7152 said:These things usually just give me repair cannisters and one to two of those black lion tokens. Which is an improvement over 2013 when... they just gave repair cannisters...

Sometimes they give a 'guaranteed wardrobe unlock' which always manages to find that one 'common' item I missed... and then next time... somehow manages to find another one that I missed even though I spent a few hours in the trading post buying every single last white, blue, and green piece of gear that was a locked skin just to avoid having that happen... it happens anyway...

So... meh...

Yea maybe you should buy up the ones for karma as well @Kichwas.7152

@MokahTGS.7850 said:considering that the casino is never going to reveal win rates fixed into it's slot machines, the only way to know is to give a good sample size (1000 or more) and post the stats. Doing this also favors the casino.

I work in a casino as a Slot Technician...I do know the 'hold' of various vendors with par sheets. House always wins

I wonder sometimes if the Wardrobe Unlocks are slanted intentionally toward basic gears. Hundreds of skins in there, and it so frequently seems to get a low craft-able or cheap skin. Not complaining too much, though, at least it always gives you something you didn't have before...unlike the mini eggs.

I opened 2 chests. The first one had the Sand Lion warclaw skin. Lucky? I dunno. The lion doesn't look happy about it.

Usually my rule is a max of 2 keys for each new chest selection. If I don't get something good on my first or second try, I'll probably waste a lot more trying to get there. RNG is bound by the law of small numbers, giving way to the fallacy of the maturity of chances. So basically, your actual chances to get something have be probabilistically slim.

I opened 7 chests, wasn't the worst loot. But sure wasn't any good or above loot.I'd rather get all repair canisters and 1 good loot rather than, nothing but medicore loot.

@"MokahTGS.7850" said:considering that the casino is never going to reveal win rates fixed into it's slot machines, the only way to know is to give a good sample size (1000 or more) and post the stats. Doing this also favors the casino.

You need a lot more than 1000 in a "good" sample size

@Mouse.7382 said:

@MokahTGS.7850 said:considering that the casino is never going to reveal win rates fixed into it's slot machines, the only way to know is to give a good sample size (1000 or more) and post the stats. Doing this also favors the casino.

Ain't that the truth...