Need more clarity around 60% success rate in DE meta

[yann.1946]

1 minute ago, Gibson.4036 said:

I'm at 60% success, with five attempts.

Attempst 1, 2 and 4 were successes, and all have in common that I showed up 60 to 70 minutes before escorts start, and found a group to join in LFG.

Attempts 3 and 5, failures, have in common that I looked for a group 30 to 15 minutes before escorts.

That confirms my thoughts on the meta, where the amount of preperation a group does reflects their winrate well. (in this case your winrate is apperently correlated completely with one internality, the time you show up, although there probably are more if you increased your datasize.)

[Gibson.4036]

1 minute ago, yann.1946 said:

That confirms my thoughts on the meta, where the amount of preperation a group does reflects their winrate well. (in this case your winrate is apperently correlated completely with one internality, the time you show up, although there probably are more if you increased your datasize.)

Very possible. It's not a lot of attempted runs.

My last attempt, someone posted an all-mesmer squad on LFG, but the zone was full faster than I could join. Too bad, because that would have been a sight to see, and I was on my mesmer at the time. I wonder if they were successful.

[Nakasz.5471]

I think the problem with people complaining is the builds they use. When you're playing in a party, you're in a community, both working towards a common goal (finishing the meta), you should use what's BEST FOR YOUR GROUP, not what's best for you.

I've sometimes seen people saying "you can't tell me how I should play." I don't think it's wrong/toxic if the commander kicks these people from the squad, do you want to play your way and not help the squad? Then play solo.

Edited April 18, 2022 by Nakasz.5471

[Malus.2184]

1 hour ago, yann.1946 said:

No, not at all. Now in this case their is an obvious external factor in the rng of bites and mobs pawns. But that does not mean that that 40% comes from external factors. From the experiences of people in this fora the 40% mostly comes from the internal factors because they either get extremely high or low winrates

I'll repeat my anecdotal evidence since I think you missed that. This encounter is intended to be completed by people who perform averagely as long as they have a good organization? If you agree to this then my example is relevant.

On my last DE run I was the commander. By all accounts, the Squad performed averagerely when it came to DPS. I organized every group so they had Alac, Quickness, and, if possible, Might.

You get on average the Defiance and her Exposed if breaking it two times pr. fight. This was before the bug where she started chain-Biting. We got them at 61% and 41% respectively. At this point, the Break Bar is worse than useless as while it's up damage done to her is reduced by 100%. The only options were to get the Defiance Bar down and enjoy 5-sec of Exposed before she phased, or ignore it and let it time out, a process that takes 10-sec and then have 8-sec of non-exposed before she phased.

In either case, the average of two pr. fight had just been used and we had lost either 1m or 50-sec of Exposed. We failed on 5-3% and would absolutely had made it, even though it might had been tight, if the Defiance mechanic had happened at respectively 59% and 39% health since  then we would had gotten the full minute worth of Exposed. RNG messed us up and caused us to fail.

The absurdum ad reductio of that is to imply that the event should be gatekept so that only people who can succeed despite the mechanics should be able to succeed. In which case, the average player will just forget about DE completely since they stand no chance. It'll only be attempted by a few, and will be effectively dead content.

Other people in this thread has voiced a similar experience to mine and that was after the latest round of balance on her.

 

I'll quote myself on this since it's faster than writing it out again:

Quote

The issue, to compare to the general vibe of Dark Souls, is that the event is unfair instead of difficult. The difficulty of the fight comes from a set of circumstances that can differ wildly from instance to instance. Examples would be

- When does she gain Defiance Bars? There's a huge difference in the flow of the fight if she gains them at 61% and 41% compared to if she gains them at 59% and 39%.

-How many times does she do the Bite? Each bite takes 14 seconds to finish. If one group only gets four and another gets seven the difference in lost DPS is 42-sec which on a timed fight is huge.

- How many Tails does she spawn?

That there's an RNG effect is good, however, the RNG as it's implemented is extremely unfair. Put limits to how many times she can do each  type of RNG, put limits on WHEN she can do each type of RNG so you, for example, never get the Defiance Bar shortly before she would phase. Things like that would do a lot to make the encounter difficult and fair, because right now it's difficult and unfair.

 

Edited April 18, 2022 by Malus.2184

[phandaria.4891]

3 hours ago, Erise.5614 said:

Is that really a problem though? There are lots of solutions to that. Cycling certain metas into and out of rotation by modifying the reward structure, things like the season of dragons which revived all the maps for months. Tweaking rewards up and down to not give out increasingly valuable rewards while still affecting the rotation. Using core tyria style reward tracks more elaborately for an account bound mat that's important for something. Lots of options! 

I believe for DE Meta it is an organizational issue. Assuming all players output lowest amount required damage and CC (which is not high as proven by organized group able to finish with 5+ minutes left on the timer), the issue is having a full map and all players to engage the boss. The in-game tools that Arenanet give us simply isn't enough for random PUGs and commander to reliable check the requirement. For example:

1. We don't know how well populated the map, unless a player can't join the map. Solution: Give us population and max population number or population check before starting the meta.

2. We don't know how many people AFK on the map or people straying off the boss.

 

For a meta that is balanced around whole map of players, obviously having able to organize through discord and fill an otherwise empty map with pre-organized group will increase the success rate to a very high percentage.

 

Edited April 18, 2022 by phandaria.4891

[Hesione.9412]

19 hours ago, Alcatraznc.3869 said:

What if Anet want a challenging OW content ? You know something that isnt like 99.9% of the game where people can mindlessly spam 1.

Not really ? Anyone is free to join discord such as Hardstruck and participate un their DE run. That is one example among many. 

Then have a better organisation

Wrong. People will keep doing that event because it gives stuff to craft the new legendary weapons. 

 

You are shooting yourself in the foot but whatever I'm not the one crying that I fail an event. 

I wish people, of which you are one example of many, would stop bringing up specific DE raids. Are Hardstuck one guild that runs the DE meta? Yes they are. At specific times, not always open (as is their right), and sometimes wanting specific roles (as is their right).

 

People are in different time zones, even on the same mega server, and organised DE metas may not be run during those times. Even if one organised squad was running, that squad can still only fit 50-ish (don't know cap) into the map and can only fit 50 people into a squad, to try to bring them all into the same map.

 

These squads, and other organised groups, appear to have experienced commanders. The subs are split so that alacrity and quickness are shared. Instructions are given, ahead of time,  about which sub is to do what boss. Or what crystal, etc. These instructions are placed into the squad message, and broadcast by the commander at important points during the build-up to the fight, and during the fight itself.

 

The point: most players won't fit into the few organised meta runs because of map caps and time zones. Further, the very successful metas have experienced commanders, something that the average player is not.

 

When repeatedly successful runs are performed by squads of players who know their roles and have a competent commander, but nor by groups spontaneously formed, that says a lot about an OW meta. And what it says is that having it OW, with the current tuning, is not a good idea.

[Nakasz.5471]

I run DE on reset all days, and im on my 20° victory in a roll maybe. I never did it with Hardstuck.

But I did it with commanders that ask for specific roles/builds.

If you look, most squads that ask for things like alacrity/quickness get victory in that meta.
Is this a raid comp? No, you don't do fractal t4 without, you don't do fractal cm without, you don't do strikes without

[Malus.2184]

 

31 minutes ago, Hesione.9412 said:

These squads, and other organised groups, appear to have experienced commanders. The subs are split so that alacrity and quickness are shared. Instructions are given, ahead of time,  about which sub is to do what boss. Or what crystal, etc. These instructions are placed into the squad message, and broadcast by the commander at important points during the build-up to the fight, and during the fight itself.

I did all this in the last run I did, the one I explained about a few posts ago. I've literally written a step-by-step instruction to the fight that I can paste into the squad message as the individual steps becomes relevant.

I've done all the above except asked for specific specs and it insults me madly when people express "just get better." While the squad's performance might have been average my organisation of the event went above and beyond, even got ULW, the only thing I never got was the Ascended Feasts since I lacked the recipies at the time.

The attempt failed due to RNG. I've anecdotal evidence that despite going above and beoynd with the organisation that an  averagely performing LFG-squad can still be blocked by the RNG.

Every time I read a post that expresses "just git gud scrub," I feel like punching a wall out of frustration. DE needs to be redesigned badly as right now it's objectively a failure. The 'success rate' being 60% instead of the 'overall success rate' being 60% is an abject failure as it means that for an averagely performing squad with the above organisation success or failure is a toss of a coin and 4 out 10, or 40 out of 100, or 400 out of 1000 times your squad will fail because the game says so.

Whoever designed DE had good intentions, the execution of it is beyond horrible though.

Edited April 18, 2022 by Malus.2184

[Silent.6137]

24 minutes ago, phandaria.4891 said:

...the issue is having a full map and all players to engage the boss....

1. We don't know how well populated the map, unless a player can't join the map. Solution: Give us population and max population number or population check before starting the meta.

2. We don't know how many people AFK on the map or people straying off the boss.

 

The meta scales according to how many are at them, not on map. AFK players on the map are inconsequential unless there's not enough players doing the meta because others can't get on that map, then it's not a meta map to begin with. As I'd stated before, you'll see on the top-right window on your screen stating how many "Heroes are standing ready". Those are the counts on top of Harvest Temple.

[Astralporing.1957]

3 hours ago, Malus.2184 said:

This encounter is intended to be completed by people who perform averagely as long as they have a good organization?

While i don't know about intentions, it does not seem to be designed to be completed by people who perform averagely, even if they have above average level of organization.

The dps requirements (the oft-mentioned 7k requirement is as fictious as is the same calculation, with the same value, btw, done for Vale Guardian), the demands for success rates while performing mechanics (not only CCs), and the abovementioned organization levels required for this fight are all at above average level. Some of them significantly above it.

The RNG factor only makes that even more stringent - even if once in a blue moon it does let the weaker groups succeed where they should have not.

Seeing that all of those points remain pretty much unaddressed since the very beginning, and anet claims to think the current winrates (heavily skewed towards hardcore groups) are fine, i'm afraid that the design may indeed reflect their intentions for this content - telling the average players that they should not bother to even apply.

[yann.1946]

3 hours ago, Malus.2184 said:

I'll repeat my anecdotal evidence since I think you missed that. This encounter is intended to be completed by people who perform averagely as long as they have a good organization? If you agree to this then my example is relevant.

I sort of disagree, mostly because it's to vague. Average in regards to what? Themselves, the group, all people who play De, all players? 

 

 

Now before this anecdote there are two things I want to address. 

1) I just have a problem with how you used statistics. You said that the average group would fail 40 percent of the time, with the same group of people, same comp etc

That statement is false, period, because the 40% fail rates has players and comp as part of the reason groups fail. 

2)i don't disagree that the fight RNG can have some effect on the WR. But from the reactions in this thread it seems its a pretty minor part (good groups have near 100% WR and bad ones near zero.) 

3 hours ago, Malus.2184 said:

On my last DE run I was the commander. By all accounts, the Squad performed averagerely when it came to DPS. I organized every group so they had Alac, Quickness, and, if possible, Might.

You get on average the Defiance and her Exposed if breaking it two times pr. fight. This was before the bug where she started chain-Biting. We got them at 61% and 41% respectively. At this point, the Break Bar is worse than useless as while it's up damage done to her is reduced by 100%.

That's for the tail no? Not the breakbar

 

3 hours ago, Malus.2184 said:

The only options were to get the Defiance Bar down and enjoy 5-sec of Exposed before she phased, or ignore it and let it time out, a process that takes 10-sec and then have 8-sec of non-exposed before she phased.

So this is not true, you can just dps that last percent (even with the tail up) 

But this is not the core of your argument so I'll leave it at that. 

3 hours ago, Malus.2184 said:

In either case, the average of two pr. fight had just been used and we had lost either 1m or 50-sec of Exposed. We failed on 5-3% and would absolutely had made it, even though it might had been tight, if the Defiance mechanic had happened at respectively 59% and 39% health since  then we would had gotten the full minute worth of Exposed. RNG messed us up and caused us to fail.

This can happen if the group is on the edge of what is good enough. 

3 hours ago, Malus.2184 said:

The absurdum ad reductio of that is to imply that the event should be gatekept so that only people who can succeed despite the mechanics should be able to succeed.

Or we could just have events who don't succeed 100 percent of the time. 

3 hours ago, Malus.2184 said:

In which case, the average player will just forget about DE completely since they stand no chance. It'll only be attempted by a few, and will be effectively dead content.

From the post who gave us the 60% numbers they said that WR is in line with other Metas. To me it seems that the average player can succeed in Tt, so I don't see why not in DE

3 hours ago, Malus.2184 said:

Other people in this thread has voiced a similar experience to mine and that was after the latest round of balance on her.

 

I actually have seen mostly claims that people keep failing or keep succeeding with a few who failed because of RNG. 

3 hours ago, Malus.2184 said:

I'll quote myself on this since it's faster than writing it out again:

 

I consider the RNG problematic to, because it feels really bad if your kill gets "stolen". But you don't need to make it a bigger problem then it is. 

[phandaria.4891]

16 minutes ago, Silent.6137 said:

The meta scales according to how many are at them, not on map. AFK players on the map are inconsequential unless there's not enough players doing the meta because others can't get on that map, then it's not a meta map to begin with. As I'd stated before, you'll see on the top-right window on your screen stating how many "Heroes are standing ready". Those are the counts on top of Harvest Temple.

Unfortunately, it is proven that the scaling Anet coded is not as fluid as you thought. Just look at Jade Maw event at DE. Jade Maw HP simply jumps with more than 5-8 players around. We simply don't know the scaling progression for Soo Won, it might be between 40-60 players, she has the same stat.

 

At the point of Harvest Temple, it will already be too late to reorganize or find people to fill the map. I don't have the comparison on what number of players standing ready between the failed and successful meta, but the successful ones that I've been in (both LFG and discord) have people still trying to join the squad map, so I can attest that those are full maps.

I've based this on optimistic assumption that L2P issues will be reduced as more players fail the meta (failure = learning opportunity), so it means the issue is purely organizational. But then again, I might be wrong.

 

 

 

Edited April 18, 2022 by phandaria.4891

[Malus.2184]

On 4/18/2022 at 11:16 PM, Astralporing.1957 said:

While i don't know about intentions, it does not seem to be designed to be completed by people who perform averagely, even if they have above average level of organization.

The the event is objectively a failure in design. The averagely performing player is by dfinition the most commonly appeareding player as the average in these examples are often also the median. And they'll feel locked out of content, and as such, they'll go do something else. The average person playing video games only spends around eight hours pr week playing them, and that's eight hours combined for ALL the video games that they play. They're likely to go "yeah, I can spend my time better by doing something where I can participate in everything the game offers me on the surface.

People like Mighty Teapot, Xanblast, et al. are objectively wrong about everything when it comes to DE.The only influencers I've sen that are even remotely correct on the subject have been Mukluk and KROOF.

When I saw Teapot go "yeah, a 60 success rate for a meta as hard as DE sounds about right," I wanted to do nothing more than sit him down and explain how statistics and activity performance works. A 60% success rate is a coin toss, a 60% success rate would only acceptable if it was a measure of overall success.

DE has a binary outcome, success or failure, 50/50. Once that has been established the success rate is in what category  the outcome falls in. And suddenly the 60% success rate is abysmally bad as it mean that only 60% of all attempts ends in success, just 10% more than the binary outcome possibilities of the encounter.

Edited April 19, 2022 by Malus.2184

[ugrakarma.9416]

36 minutes ago, Nakasz.5471 said:

I run DE on reset all days, and im on my 20° victory in a roll maybe. I never did it with Hardstuck.

But I did it with commanders that ask for specific roles/builds.

If you look, most squads that ask for things like alacrity/quickness get victory in that meta.
Is this a raid comp? No, you don't do fractal t4 without, you don't do fractal cm without, you don't do strikes without

yes same.

what i dont agree is with over-zealotry.

[ugrakarma.9416]

2 minutes ago, Malus.2184 said:

Thjen the event is objectively a failure in design. The averagely performing player is by definition the most commonly appeareding player as the average in these examples are often also the median. And they'll feel locked out of content, and as such, they'll go do something else. The average person playing video games only spends around eight hours pr week playing them, and that's eight hours combined for ALL the video games that they play. They're likely to go "yeah, I can spend my time better by doing something where I can participate in everything the game offers me on the surface.

People like Mighty Teapot, Xanblast, et al. are objectively wrong about everything when it comes to DE.The only influencers I'

ve sen that are even remotely correct on the subject have been Mukluk and KROOF.

When I saw Teapot go "yeah, a 60 success rate for a meta as hard as DE sounds about right," I wanted to do nothing more than sit him down and explain how statistics and activity performance works. A 60% success rate is a coin toss, a 60% success rate would only acceptable if it was a measure of overall success.

DE has a binary outcome, success or failure, 50/50. Once that has been established the success rate is in what category  the outcome falls in. And suddenly the 60% success rate is abysmally bad as it mean that only 60% of all attempts ends in success, just 10% more than the binary outcome possibilities of the encounter.

Anet hearding "hardcore" influencers, is what lead to HoT initial disaster, which was reverted with a big nerf on difficult. Also some disaster pvp balances on past walked they same road.

 

The carrot Anet seeks is because these ppl make videos.

[Silent.6137]

28 minutes ago, Malus.2184 said:

 

I did all this in the last trun I did, the one I explained about a few posts ago. I've literally written a step-by-step instruction to the fight that I can paste into the squad message as the individual steps becomes relevant.

I've done all the above except asked for specific specs and it insults me madly when people express "just get better." While the squad's performance might have been average my organisation of the event went above and beoynd, even got ULW, the only thing I never got was the Ascended Feasts since I lacked the recipies at the time.

The attempt failed due to RNG. I've anecdotal evidence that despite going above and beoynd with the organisation that an  averagely performing LFG-squad can still be blocked by the RNG.

 

I run with groups that list on LFG. Granted I join early so as not to waste my time with repeated failures. And also look first for commanders that I know are knowledgeable. If none are present, then I just join a random group. 

After yesterday's win, my personal success rate is 89.36%. If I'd to discount the first 3 losses after the initial release, my personal win percentage is at 95.12. I'd attribute it to being extremely lucky if this was base on just a handful of attempts. But it's not. I join the meta almost daily.

If you're experiencing close to 60% success rate over this period, then perhaps it has something to do with your squad. How you structure it or whatever. And as someone who has led lots of meta squad (not DE's), I do know many do not read squad messages from the questions I'd received from players eventhough I do lay out the steps.

It really baffles me why your success rate is so low if you're an experienced commander for the meta.

Edited April 18, 2022 by Silent.6137

[Malus.2184]

3 minutes ago, yann.1946 said:

That's for the tail no? Not the breakbar

 

The tail reduces the damage she takes by 60% until it's dead, you can power through that, and should, if she raises her tail close to a phase shift. The tail effect is Hardened Shell.

[ugrakarma.9416]

4 hours ago, yann.1946 said:

That confirms my thoughts on the meta, where the amount of preperation a group does reflects their winrate well. (in this case your winrate is apperently correlated completely with one internality, the time you show up, although there probably are more if you increased your datasize.)

well theres the map buff, a not prepered group dont have the buff(is 10% all stats? i dont remind) but a for a meta that normally fail with 5 min~10 min , this is near 10% of the total time required.

[phandaria.4891]

4 minutes ago, ugrakarma.9416 said:

well theres the map buff, a not prepered group dont have the buff(is 10% all stats? i dont remind) but a for a meta that normally fail with 5 min~10 min , this is near 10% of the total time required.

I've been in a discord group that start at 3 lanes timing, meaning the max buff is at 4-5 stacks per players. But we still won with 4 minutes on the timer. On the other hand, it was very well organized by a streamer.

Edited April 18, 2022 by phandaria.4891

[ugrakarma.9416]

2 minutes ago, phandaria.4891 said:

I've been in a discord group that start at 3 lanes timing, meaning the max buff is at 4-5 stacks per players. But we still won with 4 minutes on the timer. On the other hand, it was very well organized by a streamer.

a well organized group make the buff non-essential.

a very buffed  group make the over-organization non-essential.

 

whats is impossible is a late map with unorganized group.

[Malus.2184]

11 minutes ago, Silent.6137 said:

I run with groups list on LFG. Granted I join early so as not to waste my time with repeated failures. And also look first for commanders that I know are knowledgeable. If none are present, then I just join a random group. 

After yesterday's win, my personal success rate is 89.36%. If I'd to discount the the 3 losses after the initial release, my personal win percentage is at 95.12. I'd attribute it to being extremely lucky if this was base on just a handful of attempts. But it's not. I join the meta almost daily.

If you're experiencing close to 60% success rate over this period, then perhaps it has something to do with your squad. How you structure it or whatever. And as someone who has led lots of meta squad (not DE's), I do know many do not read squad messages from the questions I'd received from players eventhough I do lay out the steps.

It really baffles me why your success rate is so low if you're an experienced commander for the meta.

This is the attitude that makes me want to hit a wall. You've no understanding of statistics and no understanding of how a self-selecting bias works.

At this point in time most averagely performing players have given up, as such, most people who join the LFG will be the above averagely performing players. Players who would be able to succeed despite the mechanics. As such you naturally see a higher success rate, something that also falls within my hypothesis as the success rate will average close to 100% as averagely performing players feel discouraged to even try, so you only get those who think they can.

As I said previously, the fight is difficult and unfair. One group can have one set of conditions in one fight and another set in the next due to the RNG. It's the opposite of Dark Souls which is difficult and fair, you can, if you want, rock up to a boss wearing only clenched fists, underwear, being level 1, and still get a No-Hit kill as everything is the same, whatever kind of attack will always have the same telegraph. Regardless of what iteration of the fight you're in you'll always get a similar set on conditions even if the particular RNG is different.

Edited April 18, 2022 by Malus.2184

[Silent.6137]

1 minute ago, Malus.2184 said:

This is the attitude that makes me want to hit a wall. You're no understanding of statistics and no understanding of how a self-selecting bias works.

Seems everytime someone does not agree with your narrative, you'll totally ignore what they have to say, and use certain words to subtly deride them. Not just to my comments but to others as well. I had chosen to ignore them. So, I'll just ignore your post henceforth. As you said, "hitting a wall", trying to debate you.

[daninumbers.4036]

19 hours ago, Alcatraznc.3869 said:

What if Anet want a challenging OW content ? You know something that isnt like 99.9% of the game where people can mindlessly spam 1.

Then they are 9 years late. Adapt everything else to this new premise so people can't play like that and see who stays. But if they taken this route it makes no sense to try to teach people now, like adding a tutorial area for basic mechanics to the 3rd expansion. That's why raids and strikes exist, so those that like more challenging content do it. Even just fractals and dungeons are more mild content but harder than the average open world events.

19 hours ago, Alcatraznc.3869 said:

Not really ? Anyone is free to join discord such as Hardstruck and participate un their DE run. That is one example among many. 

That's why I said either join us or keep failing. You are very unlikely to succeed this meta with a full squad of pugs.

19 hours ago, Alcatraznc.3869 said:

Wrong. People will keep doing that event because it gives stuff to craft the new legendary weapons. 

Because everyone crafts legendaries and are enough to keep that meta alive, yeah yeah. At most for now they are doing it to keep, those that craft, or mainly sell, those not interested, the summoning stones. If they keep dropping in price such 2 hours meta with a (supposed) 40% chance of failing and no rewards won't be attractive at all. A few squads farming it doesn't make it a staple meta as Anet has said they want it to become, and of course, the completion % will keep rising.

19 hours ago, Alcatraznc.3869 said:

You are shooting yourself in the foot but whatever I'm not the one crying that I fail an event. 

If asking it to be doable for most of the community is crying about it... I don't know. I might have wasted around 25 hours for nothing. Others talk about their 30th and even 40th failed attempt. If you are happy about that so you can keep your finally first challenging open world content not sure what you get out of it. It's not being handled over. It's just needs a few minutes more. No need to change more, keep the trash rng, but no clue why just adding some more time would be bad. No excitement about you have to rush it? I suggested it before, add gold/silver/bronze rewards with still a time limit. Better rewards for those very organized squads, completion and their mastery points and such for less skilled ones. Still failing if it takes way too long.

13 hours ago, Wielder Of Magic.3950 said:

Listen to your commander.  Hit blue bars with CC. Do 7k DPS or more. If you can do that you can clear DE meta.

I can do that. I could tag up even and it wouldn't change much. The only way for this very specific meta to succeed is that the rest of your squad does it too and you have the good boons in every subgroup covered (alacrity, quickness, fury and 25 stacks of might) to double or triple your dps. And is that open world? No, that's instanced group content. You can't afk or do the min in a raid or you'd be kicked. Open world is whoever is in the map, so afkers will always exist. Even Dragonstorm still fails to address them but the rest of the group makes up for them.

13 hours ago, Wielder Of Magic.3950 said:

Except droves of people have complained about wanting an easy-mode for raids....(here it comes) but without nerfed rewards.

I can understand that, it's an alternative mode so you gotta stick to what that gamemode is like, it's not the main thing. At the very most having a good difficulty progression from easier to harder ones so people get used to them. At least there you can control who joins and everyone participate.

13 hours ago, Wielder Of Magic.3950 said:

DE is nothing like raids or strikes, only people who never did any of those things think this. 

Done raids before until I got sick of dealing with elitists kicking me when I didn't have full ascended gear yet I had cleared those. And you can't deny they aren't pushing strikes everywhere. The fractals change to favour EoD strikes, their own post about they want more people to try strikes, DRMs being lesser similar things including CMs. And if DE taking an organized group premade in Arborstone flooding a new map, no pugs, asking for specific classes, no "1 spammers", no afkers or fishers in the map taking a slot is not similar to that then what is it?

And I'd be so sure all of this could be solved just adding a few more minutes. So much frustration in the community while others laugh at it because they can do it with their static groups or were lucky, toxicity in both ways (I haven't insulted anyone so far but that thing about crying about this doesn't sound like a logic argument but as an attack, it's just a game and I play to have fun). DE just has divided us all and it has a very easy fix but anet is adamant on touching useless things while boasting "it's our most challenging meta ever!" so don't worry, they won't fully nerf it or it won't be their main selling feature, just it won't be any staple meta.

[Hesione.9412]

46 minutes ago, Malus.2184 said:

This is the attitude that makes me want to hit a wall. You've no understanding of statistics and no understanding of how a self-selecting bias works.

At this point in time most averagely performing players have given up, as such, most people who join the LFG will be the above averagely performing players. Players who would be able to succeed despite the mechanics. As such you naturally see a higher success rate, something that also falls within my hypothesis as the success rate will average close to 100% as averagely performing players feel discouraged to even try, so you only get those who think they can.

As I said previously, the fight is difficult and unfair. One group can have one set of conditions in one fight and another set in the next due to the RNG. It's the opposite of Dark Souls which is difficult and fair, you can, if you want, rock up to a boss wearing only clenched fists, underwear, being level 1, and still get a No-Hit kill as everything is the same, whatever kind of attack will always have the same telegraph. Regardless of what iteration of the fight you're in you'll always get a similar set on conditions even if the particular RNG is different.

Exactly. Like you, I have tried to point out that an individual player's performance is not indicative of the average player's performance. That the plural of anecdote is not data.

 

We don't even know the metrics that Anet is using to arrive at the 60%. The 60% is therefore uninterpretable.

 

And which players are covered in that 60%? What type of players are trying to do the meta? Is there a bias in the type of player?

 

Plus all the responses of: git gud (but I personally get myself into an organised group). 

[Astralporing.1957]

42 minutes ago, ugrakarma.9416 said:

a well organized group make the buff non-essential.

a very buffed  group make the over-organization non-essential.

 

whats is impossible is a late map with unorganized group.

Remember, that the buff carries on. I have a permanent 10% buff, because i've yet to succeed and reset it. In the attempts i was in lately practically everyone had it to the max. It does not seem to have any visible impact on the end result however.

In fact, the best result i've had so far (fail at below 1% due to chain bites at the very end) was with a completely unorganized group formed ad-hoc during the 5-min pre-preevent countdown. On the other hand, one of the attempts with full organization, subgroups, support setup, farming of buffs etc - failed at around 16% and was one of the worst attempts i have seen so far.

Btw - that 1% attempt? was the attempt where the intermediate phases (trash clearing, champs) took the longest. In the 16%  fail one they seemed to be cleared extremely fast however. At least twice as fast as in that overall far better attempt. Apart from that the dps, amount of people dead to mechanics etc seemed pretty much equal to me.

It seems that how good the squad is is of no importance unless you're massively overqualified for the event. In the "average" squads how far you will get is primarily based on the timing and number of boss mechanics you get, nothing more.