Need more clarity around 60% success rate in DE meta

[CaffeeCup.5742]

33 minutes ago, IAmNotMatthew.1058 said:

The tried and true argument people use when it comes to DE. "You are lucky"... why was I expecting any other response? I wish my luck wasn't limited to DE squads in this game.

Being a fully solo player, I kinda feel this too.  It's like I'm playing an absolutely different game/server (NA) experience that anyone else in their solo experience.  Honestly, I'm glad Dragon's End Meta is a public thing, or I'd be stuck out in the cold.

I've completed the event many times now, even got a precursor from it, and the fears about "Discord LFG" "LFG Alac/Quick" being this huge, toxic, unfriendly experience just hasn't happened to me.  I just join with whatever build/profession, and not once been asked of build or getting into discord, rather only recommended so it's easier to coordinate with the group.  It's been civil and just casual banter, and if there's a hint of being even mildly elitist, I would just leave the squad but stay on the map and follow the commander as a solo, and that also gets me a very high win-rate for the event. Nobody  on the map really cares how I perform as an individual, for these organized groups.

Like a lot of people here, I get severe anxiety when I'm being chatted to or when I have to respond.  I usually respond with character emotes (/yes /no /cheer etc.) because I get nervous coming up with a reply (partly why I can't join guilds).  English isn't my first language. However, I'm glad that the DE Meta has gotten me interested in strikes and fractals, as well.  Right now, I'm only confident to join "All Welcome" groups in strikes/fractals LFG.  It's not all wins, some wipes as well, but has it been a blast for me, and a very friendly experience.  I'm just slowly building my confidence.

Edited April 23, 2022 by CaffeeCup.5742

[Astralporing.1957]

1 hour ago, IAmNotMatthew.1058 said:

The tried and true argument people use when it comes to DE. "You are lucky"... why was I expecting any other response? I wish my luck wasn't limited to DE squads in this game.

Perhaps there's a method to your luck, but so far i haven't found it. My experience so far is that my only wins were in squads that were formed right after the previous meta finished (and map got capped for those squads within 2-3 minutes since posting of LFG). All other attempts, with squads that formed later, ended up in failure.

So, if we're playing the same way, but get completely different results, the (almost) only answer to how different our experiences are i can see is luck. The only exception i can think of from this "luck" conclusion is that you're looking for groups in other places than i do.

Edited April 23, 2022 by Astralporing.1957

[pugster.9378]

On 4/14/2022 at 3:30 PM, Pizzous.4783 said:

According to GW2Efficiency player database, 30.153% have unlocked Hook, Line, and Sinker achievement (owned a Fishing Rod). 26.607% have unlocked I Am The Captain achievement (owned a Skiff).

Meanwhile, only 8.995% have unlocked Stomping Around achievement.

Stomping Around Achievement is probably not accurate because it counts when someone can get this achievement by buying the 200 writs of dragon's end and finish the turtle award.  The more accurate accessment is searching for people who finished the "Dragon Pacifier" achievement which is 13.6% because there are a significant number of people who completed the Dragon's Meta event but didn't finish getting the turtle.

[Erise.5614]

Calling high win rates luck is completely valid when the success rate is 60/40. 

Just like long loose streaks can be bad luck rather than being normal. 

The only way to avoid it is controlling participants and stacking the deck in your favor. Which we also know is possible. There are people and communities with far above 90% win rates. But as far as I can tell that's not part of the argument. 

Disregarding the experiences of others because you had a different one is not an argument. And attacking their character based on that is just uncalled for. 

Edited April 23, 2022 by Erise.5614

[Nico.9361]

I've seen some ppl confused about my last question about the *Tuesday fix*. It's all the same, she's still zooming around like crazy, sometimes moving from one side to the other and back again.

In organised groups you normally have plenty of time to spare, we did this yesterday (above 5 mins left) and today (8:20 left).

[Erise.5614]

22 minutes ago, NotTooFoolish.7412 said:

I've seen some ppl confused about my last question about the *Tuesday fix*. It's all the same, she's still zooming around like crazy, sometimes moving from one side to the other and back again.

In organised groups you normally have plenty of time to spare, we did this yesterday (above 5 mins left) and today (8:20 left).

She does but as far as I can tell it's more contained. I've seen it mostly during a single phase rather than the last 3 phases. 

So it does seem better. But back to back bites are still weird.

[Gorem.8104]

12 hours ago, Fueki.4753 said:

It's one meta for now. We don't know how they'll do future metas.

They should just have made that encounter instanced, like the new Marionette fight, if they wanted it to be a challenge.

Open World should not be that hard and unrewarding, that's literally eliminating the participation of large portions of the playerbase. We know what happened with HoT and why Arenanet eventually nerfed the Open World there to get more people into playing it. But that's a lesson the developers either forgot, or the developers who learned that lesson weren't involved with Dragon's End.

True, another case there where if they didn't listen to feedback during HoT, we might not even be having this conversation now as the game might have died back then. But they didn't let the game die and we can still play it and discuss it today because they did listen to feedback back then. 
Says a lot about the current meta and their stubbornness to not nerf the only meta in the entire game the personal story ever pushed you towards. I did HoT without its final meta, I did PoF without basically any meta's. EoD? Literally a quest that says "do the final meta now" And if you don't do it then you miss an achievement that then becomes annoying to get. 
Its open world, it needs to be 100% completable but also still fun as most meta's are, it also needs to be a lot more rewarding. Every reward increase has never been enough. An infusion is too little too late at this point. 2 hours and a fail means squat, why would anyone do this. Nearly half the time you fail so you basically need to be in a stacked group or its a waste of time. 

In Drizzlewood you get rewards all throughout, in Dragonstand you can still loot all the vines even if you fail at towers. Why is this meta so unrewarding for failing. Though at this point so many has already either quit, or will never come back to Cantha. It's going to be exactly like PoF zones. 

[Eloc Freidon.5692]

The 60% meta success rate can easily be manipulated. I want to see the percentage of individual player success versus their failed attempts. See how low that 60% drops.

[dlld.4967]

My own success rate is 50% i think over 4 tries total, my first try was when I came to DE the first time during story mission. I seemed to have gotten into a organized map on accident and killed it while not being alive too much myself. I bought EoD on april 2nd.

 

Second try failed on filling the crystals. No commander

Third try failed the timer for the three strike groups (not enough people). No commander

Fourth try killed it.. with like 1 second left on timer. Used LFG to join a map with a commander

 

I wonder though if my 2 runs that didn't event get to the actual boss are counted in the statistics though.

[Zauriel Mooncat.4968]

I dont know how to feel about this.

I have been having daily successful Dragon End metas with random organized groups on LFG.

These organized groups are kinda Raid like but without a KP or LI requirement, just to say what you specialize in so they can put you on subgroups so boons are better distributed.

Many times the com and people themselves talk about the meta to new peeps in squad and map chat and are actively calling out mechanics during the meta.

Before the changes even like this was always a fail, and now is every time a win so, I really cant say things are really bad or good, I am the EU server. 

There was a group 2 days a go that was forcing the group to completely avoid the tail and we made it with 4 minutes to spare (I dont know if this is or was an exploit or not?)

 

Edited April 23, 2022 by Zauriel Mooncat.4968
Small clarification

[Linken.6345]

26 minutes ago, Zauriel Mooncat.4968 said:

I dont know how to feel about this.

I have been having daily successful Dragon End metas with random organized groups on LFG.

These organized groups are kinda Raid like but without a KP or LI requirement, just to say what you specialize in so they can put you on subgroups so boons are better distributed.

Many times the com and people themselves talk about the meta to new peeps in squad and map chat and are actively calling out mechanics during the meta.

Before the changes even like this was always a fail, and now is every time a win so, I really cant say things are really bad or good, I am the EU server. 

There was a group 2 days a go that was forcing the group to completely avoid the tail and we made it with 4 minutes to spare (I dont know if this is or was an exploit or not?)

 

Well depend on how close she is to 60,40 and 20% when the tail pop up.

You can just power through like 1-3% instead of dealing with the tail.

[Astralporing.1957]

1 hour ago, Eloc Freidon.5692 said:

The 60% meta success rate can easily be manipulated. I want to see the percentage of individual player success versus their failed attempts. See how low that 60% drops.

Or rather the chart of success rates per percentage of population. To see how high percentage of players players is at 60% rate, how it's at 90+, and how it's at near zero. Or any value in between. I'd say this would be enlightening.

Edited April 23, 2022 by Astralporing.1957

[Kuya.6495]

I'm really worried about the people who say that organizing squads to distribute boons efficiently is "raid content" instead of just knowing how boons work in the game. 

 

Are our standards for the average GW2 player really that low?

[AliamRationem.5172]

11 minutes ago, Kuya.6495 said:

I'm really worried about the people who say that organizing squads to distribute boons efficiently is "raid content" instead of just knowing how boons work in the game. 

 

Are our standards for the average GW2 player really that low?

What's so hard to understand?  Organizing squads for support is something done in raid content and not everyone wants to have to seek out the "right" group and show up 45 minutes ahead of a 45 minute meta to have a chance at winning.   Seems pretty simple to me.

[Zauriel Mooncat.4968]

19 minutes ago, Kuya.6495 said:

I'm really worried about the people who say that organizing squads to distribute boons efficiently is "raid content" instead of just knowing how boons work in the game. 

 

Are our standards for the average GW2 player really that low?

 

I did mention that the organized groups are raid like when it comes to organizing but is just a mere comparation, it has nothing to do with difficulty or skill levels requirred for each content, is just a comparation with the most common thing at hand.

But I do believe there is still a lack of understanding throughout the game when it comes to distribution of boons, or combo field usage, or usefullness of stats in builds just to name a few. Even some people that have played long in game have not notice these and several more.

Now, here is where you have to act and help those arround to understand those things in a calm and respectful manner. It is civic duty of every person to share knowledge with one another in order for them to grow and pass that understanding onto others with the same calm manner. 

Edited April 23, 2022 by Zauriel Mooncat.4968

[Kuya.6495]

8 minutes ago, AliamRationem.5172 said:

What's so hard to understand?  Organizing squads for support is something done in raid content and not everyone wants to have to seek out the "right" group and show up 45 minutes ahead of a 45 minute meta to have a chance at winning.   Seems pretty simple to me.

Squad organizing to distribute boons correctly is also done in strikes and WvW. There isn't anything challenging about putting 1 quick and 1 alac source in each sub squad. Organization isn't synonymous to raids. By the time that you've reached the last map of the last expansion in the game, it is reasonable to expect you understand what these boons do and why you should divide people into sub squads for it.

[Zoid.2568]

I have done this meta 4 times now and not failed a single time. Why are people crying? it's not a very difficult meta.

[Hesione.9412]

There are a lot of comments in this thread that are showing this fallacy: https://www.thoughtco.com/hasty-generalization-fallacy-1690919

 

While you personally may have been successful every time, if the success rate is 60% then the fail rate is automatically 40%.

 

That means for every three successes there are two fails. A 60% success rate is not good. I would rather not be seen by a doctor who passed 60% of their material at medical school, as a for example.

[Tukaram.8256]

1 hour ago, Hesione.9412 said:

A 60% success rate is not good. I would rather not be seen by a doctor who passed 60% of their material at medical school, as a for example.

You got that right!

Get a 60% on an exam... you failed. 😎

[AliamRationem.5172]

2 hours ago, Hesione.9412 said:

There are a lot of comments in this thread that are showing this fallacy: https://www.thoughtco.com/hasty-generalization-fallacy-1690919

 

While you personally may have been successful every time, if the success rate is 60% then the fail rate is automatically 40%.

 

That means for every three successes there are two fails. A 60% success rate is not good. I would rather not be seen by a doctor who passed 60% of their material at medical school, as a for example.

I think most of the people participating in this discussion are at least vaguely aware of that fact.  The difference of opinion stems from whether or not that is appropriate.  I think it's fair to point out that most open world metas are loot pinatas as long as you have the numbers (i.e. not on a dead map).  So, is it necessarily a bad thing to have a few metas that require more organization and a generally higher standard than just filling the map and having a few placeholder tags to show people where to go?

I don't personally care for it.  I think the fight itself is great.  Really epic.  Exciting music, great voicework (except for Aurene, of course!).  But the time investment combined with the high failure rate make it unappealing to me.  I'd rather spend my time elsewhere.  Still, I can't say there's anything really wrong with having just a few metas that aren't automatic loot just for showing up.

[Hesione.9412]

1 hour ago, AliamRationem.5172 said:

I think most of the people participating in this discussion are at least vaguely aware of that fact.  The difference of opinion stems from whether or not that is appropriate.  I think it's fair to point out that most open world metas are loot pinatas as long as you have the numbers (i.e. not on a dead map).  So, is it necessarily a bad thing to have a few metas that require more organization and a generally higher standard than just filling the map and having a few placeholder tags to show people where to go?

I don't personally care for it.  I think the fight itself is great.  Really epic.  Exciting music, great voicework (except for Aurene, of course!).  But the time investment combined with the high failure rate make it unappealing to me.  I'd rather spend my time elsewhere.  Still, I can't say there's anything really wrong with having just a few metas that aren't automatic loot just for showing up.

No-one is suggesting it be a loot pinata. This view that those of us proposing the meta is too hard (based on the metric that Anet provided) is incorrect.

 

It depends on how much organisation and higher standard is required. A 40% fail rate indicates that the organisation and standard required is too high. The finger can continue to be pointed at players, but that isn't going to make them experience a better success rate.

[Blood Red Arachnid.2493]

4 hours ago, Kuya.6495 said:

Squad organizing to distribute boons correctly is also done in strikes and WvW. There isn't anything challenging about putting 1 quick and 1 alac source in each sub squad. Organization isn't synonymous to raids. By the time that you've reached the last map of the last expansion in the game, it is reasonable to expect you understand what these boons do and why you should divide people into sub squads for it.

It's a bit harder for big meta events like this.  The primary obstacle in instanced content is keeping track of who can do what across countless alts.  The primary obstacle with doing this in the overworld is player cooperation.  I can't kick people from the map in the overworld, so I'm stuck working with whomever shows up.  This includes...

• Players who don't know what "roles" are and are afraid to ask.
• Players who expect to be carried through content and let other people handle it.
• Players who lie about what they do for fear that everyone else will hate them for not fulfilling a particular role
• Players who are so ill-informed they don't even know that they're being carried.
• Players who have chat channels turned off and don't read/respond.
• Players who are too intoxicated in order to accurately grasp what is going on.
• Players who will exclusively play "DPS" and wont change their builds for what is needed (though to be fair, profession-specific achievements make this Anet's fault, too).
• Players who refuse to cooperate because they don't like being told what to do.
• Players who don't know what squads are and don't have grid mode enabled.
• Trolls who will specifically try to antagonize maps into failure.
• Players who do not care about success at all and are happy to fail over and over again for some reason.
• Players running RNG builds who truly do not understand buildcraft at all.

This was a problem I had for Serpent's Ire during it's difficult eras (after chrono phantasm nerf, before EMPs).  Prep time for that event, between recruiting and explanations, took half an hour.  It was... unending, furious typing to explain to a bunch of randos how to split up and what CC was.  And yet... they failed to do it so many times.  Dragon's End has a similar issue.  All of the good squads I join have a squad message asking joiners to organize themselves based on role.  Yet, every time, anywhere from 1/3rd to 1/2 of the squad just sits in group 1 and never organizes themselves into DPS/Alac/Quickness.  When asked, no matter how directly (even in direct message), they do not respond.  And then... they die to the fist slam attack.

[Nakasz.5471]

5 minutes ago, Blood Red Arachnid.2493 said:

All of the good squads I join have a squad message asking joiners to organize themselves based on role.  Yet, every time, anywhere from 1/3rd to 1/2 of the squad just sits in group 1 and never organizes themselves into DPS/Alac/Quickness.

True, most good squads already ask what is your role when you join. 

What's the problem? It's a question I think we always have to ask ourselves when joining groups: "How am I contributing here?"

About organization, I don't think it's a complex event with great organization. If you think about it, the only thing you should know is which way your subgroup will go in the split, and CC, is that too much organization?

[Astralporing.1957]

5 hours ago, Nakasz.5471 said:

True, most good squads already ask what is your role when you join. 

What's the problem? It's a question I think we always have to ask ourselves when joining groups: "How am I contributing here?"

About organization, I don't think it's a complex event with great organization. If you think about it, the only thing you should know is which way your subgroup will go in the split, and CC, is that too much organization?

If you think having 40% of your squad consist of support classes in Open World content is not too much organization, you haven't been playing OW too much.

[Malus.2184]

On 4/24/2022 at 6:40 AM, Blood Red Arachnid.2493 said:

...

All of that effort will feel useless by most people due to this

Quote

DE has the following formula = E(X) + E(X) + (Ta*Y) + (Bi*Z) = - (time)-sec of DPS) + P = B =A (success)

Using your example, and since you said nothing about the number of tails or bites I'll set those to zero, I'll set your performance to 7000 DPS without Boons, and for sake of ease I'll put you all as condi DPS, the formula is E(30)+E(30)+E(30) + (7000 (+25%)(+50%) = 12.250 = 12.250 (+90-sec+30% DPS) = 13.444,375 ~13.444,38 benchmark.

I'll now repeat the formula with the same conditions save for some as I experienced on the last run I ever had and with the same P as in the previous calculation. E(5)+E(5) + 7000 (+25%)(+50%) = 12.250 (+10-sec +30% DPS) = 12.381,1081111 ~ 12.381,1 benchmark.

If the benchmark needed for A (success) was 13.000 then the conditions you had, using the exact same performance number, would always result in A (success) and mine would always result in A (failure).

Your expression that" all is fine, just get better,", is objectively wrong. You've had 22 successs in a row? That's still within the statistical given as the understanding of how random events in a statistics played out is that you can have 60 success followed by 40 failures and you would still fall within the statistical given.

The unfortunate fact is that even when doing all that you can still fail if the RNG factor is utterly against you. All of the above you suggest only help mitigating the RNG factor, however, you can still fail. Due to this people are unwilling to even do that because "why does it even matter?"

If the amount of tails, bites, and break bars was locked in and only the sequence of them was random then people would feel much more encouraged to all the things you mention as the real meat of the meta would be how fast they could react to the shifting circumstances instead of the shigting circumstance potentially stopping them even if they do that effort.

The design of DE makes DE unfair as the exact same group with the exact same performance can have different RNGs and the result is that is a vastly different outcome.

Edited April 25, 2022 by Malus.2184