Alliances will kill WvW. A nail in the coffin for GW2 PvP.

[jul.7602]

A very unpopular and controversial opinion, but from my nearly ten years pugmanding, leading servers, leading guilds, and playing WvW I know exactly how this is going to play out if alliances ship anything close to how it was drafted by Anet. I believe Anet has woefully misunderstood the interests, and behavior patterns of WvW players, much to the fault of listening to closely the loud and relatively small *hard-core GvG players* (which I closely relate to).

 

Alliance Stacking will create the most lopsided match ups in history.

Alliance stacking is the natural and inevitable outcome of this newly proposed system. People will stack alliances. They stacked servers when this game was released, then they stacked them again when tournaments were released, then they also stacked server links when those were released as well. Alliances will be even worse because stackers wont be limited by server caps or tens of thousands of gold worth of transfer fees. Further, it will be easy and convenient; I imagine an clean and well crafted UI where the alliance leader simply invites X,Y,Z guilds to the alliance, and then the guild leaders maintain their own roster. 

 

I'm going to call it right here. We will have at least one GvG alliance consisting of DED/LATE/SQ/WAVY, then another major alliance of pugmanders that will consist of at least INDO+NIC+BANA. Tiffy would probably pugmand during EU, INDO for NA, NIC for late PST, then BANA will public tag during SEA. Bam, that's 80% of the time zones covered. Everyone who is not in one of these VIP alliances will be on a server that gets farmed throughout the day unless another big WvW guild like SF decides to tag with a 50/50 squad. There you have it, you will get to play WvW for 2 hours for up to 3 days a week based on another guild's decision to rally. Mark my words, these will be some of the most lopsided match ups in WvW history. Imagine if Maguuma was linked with Fissure of Woe and then matched against Gate of Madness. The first week of alliances will see KDR records smashed, possibly finishing at 3 or above the by end of the week. I wouldn't be surprised if the GvG server could perpetually hold the other 2 EBG keeps for days on end while spawn camping the enemy both of the opposing servers. Similar to what Mag does, except worse because the spawn campers would be running full ascended+metabattle builds, and will have 24/7 coverage. Don't be surprised if one or both servers are perpetually banned from stepping into EBG. The adjacent borderlands wont be much better, and you'll still get rolled over anyway, but at least you wont get spawn camped.

 

As for the people saying you don't need to be a part of an alliance, or that you can just join a good alliance; this is probably not going to be that straight forward. My bet is that alliance leaders will impose strict activity rules on their member guilds such that they can maximize the amount of people that can fit in their 500 man alliance cap. What does that mean? It means that the first criterion for even getting into a decent alliance will be (1) being close to a daily player. That basically excludes all of the PvX players, and most of the casual WvW players. (2) To get into the strong alliances, you will need to be well above average in terms of skill level because your competing for 1 of 500 spots (if not smaller). If you can't get into a good alliance, your going to be thrown into a random server with people you've probably never seen before, commanders that you may, or may not recognize, and will get steamrolled. 

 

As it stands, alliances cannot be allowed to proceed unless their design is completely redone.

 

 

[joneirikb.7506]

I can agree to a lot of the things you say, I definitively believe that most of the hardcore players will try their very best to stack everything they can into alliances trying to game the system. It's what players do. I do however think that it depends a lot on how the system for putting together the worlds will work.

A World will contain some amounts of:
* Alliances
* Guilds
* Free players
Until it fills a criteria of X (player hours).

So if that X is large enough that a whole 500 player alliance is say 10% of the total, I think they would be able to make a strong impact, but not really drive nor control the match-up. Clearly if a single 500 man alliance is 50% of the entire world, then they'll just dominate as you say.

Since we have no idea about the actual numbers yet, it's really impossible to say. Anyways, some food for thought.

[Stand The Wall.6987]

if anet always pairs up the biggest alliances with each other then it will work. this needs manual adjustment and insight into the average skill levels of each alliance.

[XenesisII.1540]

😑

[subversiontwo.7501]

I haven't logged in for a while, but your post made me hit the button to point something out ...

 

What you're describing can already be done under the existing system with servers.

 

I think this is one of those things where the cultures on NA and EU have developed differently and what is important to keep track of is what is possible. Something similar to what you describe occured on EU just after the linking system was released in 2016 and has been there ever since. The top 10 GvG guilds or so all decided to populate 3 servers in hopes of being able to maximize the amount of matchups they'd face each other as there was no arena at the time. The 3 most renowned "fighting guilds" (guilds that don't partake in GvG but play slightly larger numbers open field) followed suit. That created three communities that has been at the forefront of the region ever since. They may have crumbled, rebuilt and reshaped over the years (and what is left today is perhaps rather 1½ than 3 such communities) but it has been a presence in the EU region since 2016 up until today.

 

That pushes the discourse into another direction as "Alliances" of sorts can stay together at the cost of 200g/link and has always come with two issues: every time migrations happen people also quit when they can't be bothered paying for the content and, secondly, it makes everyone who doesn't pay even more complacent and discouraged to build something.

 

What you can notice in the EU region is that all other servers, those who play by the normal rules, are losing even more content as they can't (re-)build community with the existing tools. They can't build community to match content as they are restrained by the system so on many of those servers people have just given up trying to build community or operate on a level reminiscent of their past. Those servers simply have less content than they used to do as people transfer off servers for content and then bleed out of the game when they can't motivate transfering.

 

This means less overall content for everyone - with fewer commanders and more players per tag, relying more on few remaining old commanders for content - making players even more prone to transfer in general because they now transfer to where content is if it dies down in one community or on one server. This relfects the OP's fears perfectly, as s/he seems afraid of a mere 3 people or 4 guilds can do.

 

What Alliances (the system) can do for many such servers is give them equal access to tools with which to build community (or rebuild communities) and match content with those who have paid to circumvent the server wall. There are plenty of groups still around who just can't motivate all their members to fork out 200g/link to stay together or constantly pay to open up recruitment and replenish members.

 

Could Alliances still be a problem for WvW? Sure, your post gives great detail of your attitude and such attitudes are problematic. So many years have passed with players taking some good old names for granted and relying on them for content that we're at a point where we don't know if we, the playerbase, have the drive and gumption to shake ourselves out of just going through the motions, a little bit less for every year. However, the tools will now be available for whoever wants to build community to actually build community without having to jump through hoops. That places the ball firmly in our court. Whether it climbs or falls.

Edited July 14, 2021 by subversiontwo.7501

[Justine.6351]

Yeah there needs to be a large competitive player base in wvw for this to make sense. Away from the omega alliances we might see some fun return to the less populated matchups.

[Dawdler.8521]

The assumption here is that certain types commanders and guilds can actually work together as a cohesive units so they only stack single groups.

 

Looks at self proclaimed elite fight guilds

 

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahaaaaaa!!!

[Telgum.6071]

No one cares about those vip guilds apart from those who proclaim that those guilds are, for some reason, vip guilds.

 

Who cares if they do an unbeatable faction? What will they achieve? WSR just dropped from very high population to medium once they started to split between 3-4 servers. They are so strong that no one fights them anymore, and you think it won't be the case in the example you are bringing? They want to make an unbeatable mega-alliance? Cool, let's see how much time they need to regret it once they see no one fights them.

 

But I really doubt is going to happen. Aren't those guild competitive? Then why would they stack all together against lower guilds that won't stand a chance? Seems more like a karma train strategy.

 

Alliances is the main solution for the horrible balance between low and high population servers and the horrendous relink system. I wouldn't start making predictions before having the big picture showing how will that work. It's 14th Jul, there is only one month left to see how Alliances will work.

[displayname.8315]

Hmm OP says guilds and players will have too much convenience in making their matchups?  Disagree..

 

OP says GvG guilds will participate in WvW too much and actually cap keeps and stuff...  lololol those scrubs are too good to play WvW. They will stay in their eotm arena and stay within their approved metas.

 

 

Edited July 14, 2021 by displayname.8315

[Junkpile.7439]

They can always just add pips in eotm and wvw is fixed

[XenesisII.1540]

Bruh, "fight guilds" don't ppt, they still need people to do that for them.

You don't need to be sweatin about not being in a giant alliance, like are you jelly about not being in a "fight guild" these days?

Winning is still meaningless, the day they announce worthy rewards for winning wvw again is when you can put the pitchforks up.

 

[Aeolus.3615]

2 hours ago, XenesisII.1540 said:

Bruh, "fight guilds" don't ppt, they still need people to do that for them.

You don't need to be sweatin about not being in a giant alliance, like are you jelly about not being in a "fight guild" these days?

Winning is still meaningless, the day they announce worthy rewards for winning wvw again is when you can put the pitchforks up.

 

 

Pips are the wvw true reward 😄 its all about pip wars!

[Phantom.8130]

There's one point that hasn't been brought up.  Player attrition.  Players come, players go, that's the way of all MMOs.  However, if Alliances are based around guilds, pugs are left out in the cold.  If there's limited spots, pugs will get excluded, and even forced out if necessary to ensure a guild can get their numbers in.  We already see this happen on the maps dating back to launch.  Some may not see a problem with this.  However, who do guilds recruit?  Pugs.  No pugs, no recruitment.  No new guild members.  Then you factor in normal MMO player attrition, so over time guilds start to shrink as a result.  Pugs have been forced out, they're not coming back.  So, guilds will have to cannibalize each other to stay afloat..... for a while.  But player attrition will inevitably whittle that away as well.  Now you're left with one tier, no pugs for recruitment, and guilds rotting to death.  What do you do?

[Aeolus.3615]

12 minutes ago, Phantom.8130 said:

There's one point that hasn't been brought up.  Player attrition.  Players come, players go, that's the way of all MMOs.  However, if Alliances are based around guilds, pugs are left out in the cold.  If there's limited spots, pugs will get excluded, and even forced out if necessary to ensure a guild can get their numbers in.  We already see this happen on the maps dating back to launch.  Some may not see a problem with this.  However, who do guilds recruit?  Pugs.  No pugs, no recruitment.  No new guild members.  Then you factor in normal MMO player attrition, so over time guilds start to shrink as a result.  Pugs have been forced out, they're not coming back.  So, guilds will have to cannibalize each other to stay afloat..... for a while.  But player attrition will inevitably whittle that away as well.  Now you're left with one tier, no pugs for recruitment, and guilds rotting to death.  What do you do?

 

Thats very true thats how the cycle works, but it kinda deppends trully on how actually alliances will change the events of wvw, this is if there will be any changes to the game itself how is being played....

Also  guild manipulation to achieve best coverage population  will make guildless players that are outside that amanipulation alliance link process in very despair situation if they will end in a lower population coverage alliance, yeah in that i believe players would try to move every time to who has more players and win overall.

 

 

"Now you're left with one tier, no pugs for recruitment, and guilds rotting to death.  What do you do?"

 

That is actually what some guilds will(are already organizing )try to do at the start of alliances so they have no match in population and cover... 2500 "fully" dedicated players for all timezones where maps can hold 80ish at a time... its plenty of space for one alliance to get all the resources.

Edited July 14, 2021 by Aeolus.3615

[Dawdler.8521]

11 minutes ago, Phantom.8130 said:

There's one point that hasn't been brought up.  Player attrition.  Players come, players go, that's the way of all MMOs.  However, if Alliances are based around guilds, pugs are left out in the cold.  If there's limited spots, pugs will get excluded, and even forced out if necessary to ensure a guild can get their numbers in.  We already see this happen on the maps dating back to launch.  Some may not see a problem with this.  However, who do guilds recruit?  Pugs.  No pugs, no recruitment.  No new guild members.  Then you factor in normal MMO player attrition, so over time guilds start to shrink as a result.  Pugs have been forced out, they're not coming back.  So, guilds will have to cannibalize each other to stay afloat..... for a while.  But player attrition will inevitably whittle that away as well.  Now you're left with one tier, no pugs for recruitment, and guilds rotting to death.  What do you do?

You are describing the last 9 years of WvW.

 

So why should we bring up this point on alliances?

[Phantom.8130]

21 minutes ago, Dawdler.8521 said:

You are describing the last 9 years of WvW.

 

So why should we bring up this point on alliances?

No, I'm really not.  Pugs have always been around, sometimes in abundance.  While there's less now than there were a few years ago, that's in line with the overall player attrition.  There isn't currently a system that actively cuts that flow off.  Guild based alliances will.

[Dawdler.8521]

28 minutes ago, Phantom.8130 said:

There isn't currently a system that actively cuts that flow off. 

Oh yes there is. Its called meta zergs on server discord. So you really are describing both past and current WvW perfectly.

 

Alliances would neither help or hinder pugs.

[Phantom.8130]

1 hour ago, Dawdler.8521 said:

Oh yes there is. Its called meta zergs on server discord. So you really are describing both past and current WvW perfectly.

 

Alliances would neither help or hinder pugs.

No, look.  Unless they're able to queue up all 4 maps, pugs can still enter WvW as part of the server. The meta zergs on server discord may exclude pugs and be a turn off to pugs, but it's not stopping them from from entering WvW.  Full guild alliances will. It'll take the problem that current exists, and accelerate it dramatically.  What will happen is there'll be an initial bump in activity, then a snowballing dropoff into an avalanche.

[wolfsblut.9435]

The unkown is and will be how they are going include/exclude pugs.

 

Include, so they are recrutible by guilds.

Exclude, so they do not longer disturb the guilds.

We will see soon.

[Chaba.5410]

44 minutes ago, wolfsblut.9435 said:

The unkown is and will be how they are going include/exclude pugs.

 

Include, so they are recrutible by guilds.

Exclude, so they do not longer disturb the guilds.

We will see soon.

This wasn't an unknown with the way alliances were originally described.  In fact, just remove the word "alliances" from your head.  The new system will still be "world vs. world vs. world".

"our new World Restructuring system will use recent statistics, based on similar predicted participation, skill, and coverage, to create worlds filled with alliances, guilds, and unaffiliated players."

Here's a link to a visual representation of how teams will be made up.  All the pugs are in green.

Edited July 14, 2021 by Chaba.5410

[Junkpile.7439]

Sound complicated and annoying. Hot join would be much better idea. Wvw is better when map have like max 5 players from same guild.

[Jski.6180]

If you can make sure that there is always content every week in wvw (all though there not always content now but often you can still get random fights during all times of the day on some level right now) it should work out. The current system is a pool of ppl that is very unchanging but the alliances is a selective group made by the player base and i am not sure if the player base is able to make it work for the over all week grouping. You will have great resets and if your in the prime time zone of the selective group for all 3 teams if you not then your out of luck.

 

I think it will come down to the ability for players to swap there selective group and the players ability to be willing to play with new ppl more in there time zones.

[Stand The Wall.6987]

i'm pretty sure the alliances structure accounts for pugs. there will be plenty of pugs assigned to each alliance, and no they will not get kicked out of maps to make room for guild members. that doesn't make any sense.

[displayname.8315]

Let's not forget the part where proud guild takes a loss, throws blame everywhere but themselves and moves to a nice easy wood tier for their one push masterpieces.  Leaving room for WvW players to join up.

 

Really just depends on how Anet is going to curate the groupings.

[joneirikb.7506]

4 hours ago, Phantom.8130 said:

There's one point that hasn't been brought up.  Player attrition.  Players come, players go, that's the way of all MMOs.  However, if Alliances are based around guilds, pugs are left out in the cold.  If there's limited spots, pugs will get excluded, and even forced out if necessary to ensure a guild can get their numbers in.  We already see this happen on the maps dating back to launch.  Some may not see a problem with this.  However, who do guilds recruit?  Pugs.  No pugs, no recruitment.  No new guild members.  Then you factor in normal MMO player attrition, so over time guilds start to shrink as a result.  Pugs have been forced out, they're not coming back.  So, guilds will have to cannibalize each other to stay afloat..... for a while.  But player attrition will inevitably whittle that away as well.  Now you're left with one tier, no pugs for recruitment, and guilds rotting to death.  What do you do?

 

1 hour ago, wolfsblut.9435 said:

The unkown is and will be how they are going include/exclude pugs.

 

Include, so they are recrutible by guilds.

Exclude, so they do not longer disturb the guilds.

We will see soon.

 

The new "Worlds" under the alliance system will contain a mix of:

 

* Alliances
* Guilds
* Non Guild Players

 

If we assume that there is 1/3 of each, then all worlds will on average consist of 1/3 non-guild-players. Something that no guilds nor alliances can stop in any way. There will not be any worlds without pugs. In-fact if half the wvw players are pugs, then indeed 50% of the worlds would be pugs.

 

And Guilds will have a much better recruitment options, as they will get new pugs each time the servers gets shuffled. In terms of pugs, there is really little to no disadvantage with the World Restructuring system. (The main drawback there is those that lean more toward server loyalty, than pug-life.)

The main difference for pugs, is that those on big stacked servers can no longer coast on that. While those still on small servers that routinely gets beaten will now have more variety, as the Worlds gets blown up and re-made every 2 months. So you never know what kind of guilds and alliances you'll get to work with. And if you find some you enjoy, you can join them to stay with them.
 

All of this was explained in detail in the original thread:

 

https://en-forum.guildwars2.com/topic/19480-world-restructuring/