Need more clarity around 60% success rate in DE meta

[Astralporing.1957]

1 hour ago, kharmin.7683 said:

I hope that people are still running it by the time I get there!

There is a relatively small number of people that are running it, and doing it succesfully. The LFGs show up somewhere an hour before meta starts, and can be joined only for a short while (map instances get filled very fast). Outside of those groups (and some that do not even post in LFGs but gather in secret) the chances of getting a succesful meta are still next to zero. And this will get even worse with time, as in those cases most of the time now noone even bothers trying anymore.

Even after the last change (which did improve things a little bit) the event is still just way too overtuned for average OW players.

[Malus.2184]

18 hours ago, Silent.6137 said:

Belittle everyone just because I stated how I go about ensuring I get high successes. What a stretch.

 

The context is in how you describe it. While all those things are valid they're options far from available to everyone as this event has a self-selecting bias, and thus, some of the suggestions feels highly insulting to people. And that's belittling them even if you're unaware of you actively doing so.

 

18 hours ago, Silent.6137 said:

As for your statistics, it's just something to obsfucate. Make something nonsensical enough without any real substance to back it up, and perhaps everyone will just nod and say "Wow!". Did you think majority of those who read the discussions actually go through your made-up formula?

Formula instead of statistics, there's a difference. And while both can be manipulated to show what you want my formula shows that if you add in things that no players have control over the benchmark changes.

Unless you want to argue that my anecdotal evidence of only getting two at one time where the Exposed could only be enjoyed for five seconds is somehow wrong? Compare this to another person's anecdotal evidence of him getting three full lenght Exposed. I'll remind you that you initially expressed arguments that your anecdotal evidence was objective evidence. All I did was to put in both variables in the formula and I got different results despite the base performance being exactly the same number in both.

Edited April 23, 2022 by Malus.2184

[Nakasz.5471]

I think we need more data:
1 - Are these 60% considering squads that reach the boss and fail due to time?
2- Are these 60% from squads at least with commander?

Because if those numbers are from all maps open in DE, then the numbers are good.
I still think this is not a hard meta, if all ppl do their job, it is super easy, even the dps check is super easy. If you do only auto attack + shades on scourge, you do much more than 10k dps, i didnt tested it but, considering Mechanist has confusion on auto, im sure if you spam only 1 on mecha you do more than 10k dps.

Same for breakbar, anyone know how much is soo won breakbar size? Cuz im sure if at least 1/2 squad get emp and use it on CC bar, you break it

Edited April 22, 2022 by Nakasz.5471

[ReaverKane.7598]

Only question is how on earth is 60% on an open world event considered good news?
This attitude of "good enough" mediocrity is why i've been playing Lost Ark instead of GW2.

I totally feel like the money spent on EoD was wasted, might as well given it away to charity.

[IAmNotMatthew.1058]

7 minutes ago, ReaverKane.7598 said:

Only question is how on earth is 60% on an open world event considered good news?
This attitude of "good enough" mediocrity is why i've been playing Lost Ark instead of GW2.

I totally feel like the money spent on EoD was wasted, might as well given it away to charity.

If it's including every map, even the ones without commander 60% isn't as bad as many people claim. 

[AgentMoore.9453]

2 hours ago, Astralporing.1957 said:

the event is still just way too overtuned for average OW players.

Which is something I think about a lot whenever discussing EoD's staying power and DE's in particular. I've already seen many comments saying 'It's fine, it'll just become like Triple Trouble or Serpent's Ire' like that's a positive outcome. I really don't think 'Don't worry, some dedicated groups will occasionally run it once a week or at reset if you're lucky enough to get in their map' is a good goal for open world content and certainly not for the final chapter of a 10-year story.

Ideally, Soo-Won's battle should be accessible and attractive to as many players as possible or, at minimum, tuned for and within reach of the majority of those who play the mode it's presented in. If you want to proclaim (as many do) that the majority of OW players have a substandard performance and don't seek out challenges, then why on earth are we getting OW content that's balanced around the minority that performs more effectively and actively seeks out challenge? They've already solved this problem in the past by offering instanced fights and challenge modes, so short of collective amnesia, I'm not sure how ArenaNet forgot how to appeal to multiple types of players at once.

DE's meta is trying to serve meat to vegetarians - edible, but unpopular and unenjoyable for the majority. It's aging badly already and it's barely been a month and a half; imagine a year from now.

[Malus.2184]

15 hours ago, AgentMoore.9453 said:

Ideally, Soo-Won's battle should be accessible and attractive to as many players as possible or, at minimum, tuned for and within reach of the majority of those who play the mode it's presented in.

The issue is that with the design paradigm for DE that's impossible. RNG of which the sequence of something appears in is good if it can only appear a set number of times and at set times. DE is just random from one end to the other. I've experienced two really bad Expose, another post expressed how they had three good ones. My formula showed the numerical effect of  this difference.

It's impossible to set a proper performance that players should aspire to since their benchmark is subject to many things they've no influence over. It's all over the place and due to the conditional effects the exact same performance can lead to success one time and failure the next. DE is just badly designed. There's no overtuning, any need for any nerfs, or any need for bugfixes either. The whole event from the planning to the implementation of it are flawed from one end to the other and the entire final battle with Soo-Won needs to be redesigned from the bottom up. Once that's done, then ANet can focus on bugfixing.

Edited April 23, 2022 by Malus.2184

[Unicorn Luna.5204]

Wouldn't mind more clarity on success rates,. This detail of 60% success rate felt like a confidence boost to get people trying again. Improved success rates should be predictable after the first few weeks and I'm not filled with confidence at it being 60% now, I would have hoped for a higher rate than this by now. If this was 60% of runs that weren't premade through existing communities then I would consider it significant, but I doubt this is what the 60% refers to.

I've got my turtle and I've had 2 successful runs as a commander (lfg squads premade in arborstone and moved over to DE to hopefully force a fresh map for the squad to fit into, weird thing to have to do) but I haven't returned to DE meta despite the changes that have happened since then purely because the time investment versus the success rate isn't significant enough for me to feel safe investing my time.

It is incredibly jarring to feel confident in ones own skills and then come out of a 2+ hour mission with nothing to show for it except some exp and trash loot.

If the chance of success must be higher than average then I would suggest that failure shouldn't be so unrewarding.

On the flipside however...

This could be a strong learning opportunity for the average OW player running around in PTV and the like. I would like there to be more challenging content in open world but in order for the average OW player to get up to speed with breakbars, doing some actual damage and jumping over shockwaves there has to be content where these things are required for completion. Enter DE. Perhaps after a year of players hitting DE and hopefully learning that breakbars and DPS are important for some encounters, they'll teach each other the "tricks" and anet can give us more open world challenges in future updates...

Optimism!

But yeah, for now, not interested in trying this content for fun. I hope to be at a later date.

[Malus.2184]

1 hour ago, Silent.6137 said:

Really? So, what is this vague and mysterious options available to me but not to anyone else?

The willingness to spend an extra 15 minutes on the meta? Looking for squads in LFG? Willing to pay attention to mapchats? Joining Discord on some  rare occasions and listening to the commanders? Able to run with the sub-groups I'm assigned to? Paying attentions to the mechanics and staying out of AoEs? Perhaps you can enlighten me.

 

As I said before, I couldn't be bothered to go through your formula. It might have relevance but you're basing it on your own perceptions of how the game works. So to me, it's nothing more than a made-up formula whose sole purpose is to add the appearances of legitimacy to your arguements.

Majority? Based on what data? Aging badly for you and selected vocal minority who are dissatisfied with the meta, maybe.

The option is available to you. such as when you felt that what posted to you was belittling, which it was intentionally. What you say is irrelevant if people are already biased towards hearing something else. You could be talking about puppies and rainbows and if people have a negative bias toward you they'll interpret it negatively. That said, the context of what you said and the nature of it is a veiled get better/do more even if you interpret them as otherwise.

And you should really read the formula I posted as that objectively destroyes the argument that DE is a well-designed meta and it's people who needs to improve.

Using the example of Tripple Trouble is wrong as well as there's little to no RNG in the fight and as such the benchmark needed to achieve success is a steady. The entire point is, that with the same performance over two attempts, the exact same group and with the exact same performance can have different outcomes due to the conditional influence of the RNG.

Edited April 22, 2022 by Malus.2184

[Gorem.8104]

2 hours ago, ReaverKane.7598 said:

Only question is how on earth is 60% on an open world event considered good news?
This attitude of "good enough" mediocrity is why i've been playing Lost Ark instead of GW2.

I totally feel like the money spent on EoD was wasted, might as well given it away to charity.

ya know, that's a good point. Imagine if that was applied to all over the game. A 40% fail rate is so be expected when you fight that Hero point, but 60% of the time you'll get it! Just gotta keep trying till you hit the 60%! 
That literally means that RNG plays a role and setup is required. The number literally means the average player cannot do this fight unless carried. Didn't think of it that way before. Essentially, all the changes have done so far is allow stacked squads to complete it instead of them failing as well. 

[ReaverKane.7598]

3 hours ago, IAmNotMatthew.1058 said:

If it's including every map, even the ones without commander 60% isn't as bad as many people claim. 

Of course its bad. Its a open world event that lasts 2 hours.Its not a raid that's meant to be done with a dedicated group and built. Its litterally the most casual type of content, and has a fail rate of almost half. That's a great way to get people frustrated and not playing.

[Hesione.9412]

9 hours ago, NotTooFoolish.7412 said:

The question is, are people checking if the rng is bad after each change Anet makes?
E.g. they did a change on Tuesday, so that the bite isn't that broken. Soo Wan zooming around like crazy wasn't entirely intended behaviour.

How is it now? I didn't have the time to visit the lizard this week, curious.

I did one meta after the change, with an organised group that routinely runs the content, and she zoomed around like crazy.

[Hesione.9412]

1 hour ago, ReaverKane.7598 said:

Of course its bad. Its a open world event that lasts 2 hours.Its not a raid that's meant to be done with a dedicated group and built. Its litterally the most casual type of content, and has a fail rate of almost half. That's a great way to get people frustrated and not playing.

Exactly.

 

When one group of players is saying things along the line of "it's fine (but I look for organised squads, force new maps to open, the average player can learn to play better)" - it's not fine.

1. Looking for organised squads == I don't want to play with the average player unless the average player can be managed, because that leads to success

2. Force new maps to open == I only want the people in my squad on the map because that leads to success

3. The average player can learn to play better - do we all think that, after the game being almost 10 years old and players still aren't hitting higher DPS. There are some professions/elites where it is almost impossible to get low DPS, and there are some which require a lot more skill. Most players don't know their own DPS. They aren't running arcdps. They aren't trying out their skills on the golem in the Aerodrome. And if they've been okay in OW up to the DE meta, why should they change now? 

 

The fundamental point is that players aren't going to change their playstyle now. Gnashing of teeth is not going to change this. Insulting the average player is not going to change this.

 

The game is supposed to be fun. The DE meta is not fun for a bunch of people. Having the perspective that some players are idiots/lazy/whatever other pejorative one wants is not going to suddenly make those players have fun. And telling them in map chat that the meta failed because of them is giving them even less fun. 

 

The game will die unless these players are catered to.

[IAmNotMatthew.1058]

1 hour ago, ReaverKane.7598 said:

Of course its bad. Its a open world event that lasts 2 hours.Its not a raid that's meant to be done with a dedicated group and built. Its litterally the most casual type of content, and has a fail rate of almost half. That's a great way to get people frustrated and not playing.

It's on a 2 hour timer, yes, but it doesn't last 2 hours. The Escort finishes when there's ~15 minutes left on the clock, the fight with Soo-Won finishes up until the 5 minute mark left. That's already 30-35 minutes actually spent on the non-boring part of the meta instead of 1 hour.
The change to the contributor buff allows you to arrive later, lately I can arrive ~30 minutes past the start of the boredom-part and still find a group to join. 

  

30 minutes ago, Hesione.9412 said:

The game will die unless these players are catered to.

I highly doubt the way DE meta is could in any way lead to the game dying. There is content done by one group of people, there is content done by other groups. There's plenty of content altready catered towards OW players with the vast majority ranging between "impossible to fail" and "easy".

Edited April 22, 2022 by IAmNotMatthew.1058

[vanfrano.1325]

7 hours ago, IAmNotMatthew.1058 said:

I highly doubt the way DE meta is could in any way lead to the game dying. There is content done by one group of people, there is content done by other groups. There's plenty of content altready catered towards OW players with the vast majority ranging between "impossible to fail" and "easy".

 

In my case it's not only Dragon's End meta but I find myself playing a lot less since EoD and all the time wasted in DE is probably a part of it.
For the first time since I started playing GW2 I felt like there was a lot of wrong in EoD and the direction they seem to want to take for the game. I never told myself "okay this is not fun" or "this feels forced", until EoD.
And I really don't mind a challenge as an avid FFXI player.

[Cuks.8241]

8 hours ago, Hesione.9412 said:

The game will die unless these players are catered to.

Its one event. Not everything needs to be catered to the same type of player.

The whole expansion was for average ow player minus the 4 strikes. There were even 0 updates for pvp modes. 

So basically youre saying that all the new content needs to be for average ow player and screw all else. 

[Fueki.4753]

23 minutes ago, Cuks.8241 said:

Its one event. Not everything needs to be catered to the same type of player.

The whole expansion was for average ow player minus the 4 strikes. There were even 0 updates for pvp modes. 

So basically youre saying that all the new content needs to be for average ow player and screw all else. 

It's one meta for now. We don't know how they'll do future metas.

They should just have made that encounter instanced, like the new Marionette fight, if they wanted it to be a challenge.

Open World should not be that hard and unrewarding, that's literally eliminating the participation of large portions of the playerbase. We know what happened with HoT and why Arenanet eventually nerfed the Open World there to get more people into playing it. But that's a lesson the developers either forgot, or the developers who learned that lesson weren't involved with Dragon's End.

[Hesione.9412]

1 hour ago, Cuks.8241 said:

Its one event. Not everything needs to be catered to the same type of player.

The whole expansion was for average ow player minus the 4 strikes. There were even 0 updates for pvp modes. 

So basically youre saying that all the new content needs to be for average ow player and screw all else. 

1. It's one event, and the point of an entire map. It's the Dragonstand equivalent in EoD.

2. That means that only three of the four maps released in EoD should cater to the average player? PvP is irrelevant to this conversation.

Your point 2 (the four maps were for the average player) argues against your first point (not everything needs to be catered for the average player).

3. No, I did not say that at all. I haven't mentioned strikes, which are instanced content. My only points have been about the fourth EoD map. I'm not saying "screw all else", and I have never said that in any thread.

 

Please (consistently) attack the points and not me. This thread has become woefully emotive. There are numerous instances where people have been insulted for having a different opinion, rather than having an argument made.

 

Coming back to the point of the OP: yes, it would be great to have more clarity around the 60% success rate.

[Malus.2184]

11 hours ago, ReaverKane.7598 said:

Of course its bad. Its a open world event that lasts 2 hours.Its not a raid that's meant to be done with a dedicated group and built. Its litterally the most casual type of content, and has a fail rate of almost half. That's a great way to get people frustrated and not playing.

By that standard Dragon's Stand and Drizzlewood Coast are bad as well since they also require a large time investment. The fail rate also have nothing to do with the squad's performance (P) value, it has to do with that the event is utterly random. One squad can get three excellently timed Expose and another can get two really badly timed Expose. In that case, if the P-value is the same for both the fomer group will have a higher benchmark than the latter.

If Soo-Won was designed in a way so that she used an ability every 10% health and the distribution of them were always two Exposed, four Bites, and two Tails then the order of which they came in could be RNG, however, when one option had been exhaused it would be removed from the RNG pool and only the other(s) would remain. The the P-value needed to complete the encounter could be properly adjusted as necesary.

People will continue to do something if they feel that them failing is fair and they have a chance of succeeding. They'll only quit if they feel the failure was unfair and outside of their scope of control.

Edited April 23, 2022 by Malus.2184

[Cuks.8241]

1 hour ago, Hesione.9412 said:

1. It's one event, and the point of an entire map. It's the Dragonstand equivalent in EoD.

2. That means that only three of the four maps released in EoD should cater to the average player? PvP is irrelevant to this conversation.

Your point 2 (the four maps were for the average player) argues against your first point (not everything needs to be catered for the average player).

3. No, I did not say that at all. I haven't mentioned strikes, which are instanced content. My only points have been about the fourth EoD map. I'm not saying "screw all else", and I have never said that in any thread.

 

Please (consistently) attack the points and not me. This thread has become woefully emotive. There are numerous instances where people have been insulted for having a different opinion, rather than having an argument made.

 

Coming back to the point of the OP: yes, it would be great to have more clarity around the 60% success rate.

Your initial point was that its not fine that the meta is only OK for players that are willing to organise themselves for it. So it is not fine that it is fun for those people, guilds, it needs to be changed to cater to players that are unable or unwilling to do it. I prefer content I can do with my guild, put some thought into it. It is more long term interesting for me than a 111 event. But I guess such content needs to be changed to cater to someone else that already got 3 other meta events (maybe 4 if you count the mini meta in Echovald).

This is not Dragon stand. This map has collections, story parts in open world, fishing spots. Events that are not connected to the meta. In the end it comes to 1 meta event. Players can experience the end of dragons in the story.

Pvp content is remotely relevant because it just shows how Anet actually moved most of their resources to open world content. And its still not enough for the entitled. I guess everything needs to cater to them. The only acceptable solution is to put all the rest in some instance so they can never come in contact with any organised content, lets not even talk about pvp because that is just over the top offensive. Possibly without any unique rewards because if they get even one interesting reward the next day you will see people crying how this should be available through other means because this is a "core" feature of the expansion or whatever.

[Sjentra.3409]

The problem is it feels like they put raid content in open world.
We would probably be having the same discussions if they made DE a PvP zone instead.

Organized Content(dungeons/fractals/strikes/raids/private instances), open world content, and PvP (WvW, sPvP, edge of the mists) shouldn't ever get mashed together. At least that's how I understand GW2 philosophy. Especially since each portion draws their own types of people.

If we're going to have harder open world content; then open world needs to be treated like a first class citizen instead of trying to bid us out to the highest dev that wants his organized content or PvP mode to have more participation. Things like legendary armor and all the gifts of [x] should be obtainable in open world then.

[Hesione.9412]

2 hours ago, Cuks.8241 said:

Your initial point was that its not fine that the meta is only OK for players that are willing to organise themselves for it. So it is not fine that it is fun for those people, guilds, it needs to be changed to cater to players that are unable or unwilling to do it. I prefer content I can do with my guild, put some thought into it. It is more long term interesting for me than a 111 event. But I guess such content needs to be changed to cater to someone else that already got 3 other meta events (maybe 4 if you count the mini meta in Echovald).

This is not Dragon stand. This map has collections, story parts in open world, fishing spots. Events that are not connected to the meta. In the end it comes to 1 meta event. Players can experience the end of dragons in the story.

Pvp content is remotely relevant because it just shows how Anet actually moved most of their resources to open world content. And its still not enough for the entitled. I guess everything needs to cater to them. The only acceptable solution is to put all the rest in some instance so they can never come in contact with any organised content, lets not even talk about pvp because that is just over the top offensive. Possibly without any unique rewards because if they get even one interesting reward the next day you will see people crying how this should be available through other means because this is a "core" feature of the expansion or whatever.

I'm not seeing your points. What has your guild or PvP got to do with DE?

[IAmNotMatthew.1058]

38 minutes ago, Sjentra.3409 said:

The problem is it feels like they put raid content in open world.

Having to pay attention is still not raid content. 

[Astralporing.1957]

13 hours ago, IAmNotMatthew.1058 said:

It's on a 2 hour timer, yes, but it doesn't last 2 hours. The Escort finishes when there's ~15 minutes left on the clock, the fight with Soo-Won finishes up until the 5 minute mark left. That's already 30-35 minutes actually spent on the non-boring part of the meta instead of 1 hour.
The change to the contributor buff allows you to arrive later, lately I can arrive ~30 minutes past the start of the boredom-part and still find a group to join. 

Then you're lucky. My experience is that if i don;t seek a group immediately after the previous event finished, my chances of getting a good group drop to zero. The LFGs that show up later are made by people that did not make it to those first groups or by those that were already on map and suddenly noticed meta is coming. Those ad-hoc groups rarely succeed.

13 hours ago, IAmNotMatthew.1058 said:

  

I highly doubt the way DE meta is could in any way lead to the game dying. There is content done by one group of people, there is content done by other groups. There's plenty of content altready catered towards OW players with the vast majority ranging between "impossible to fail" and "easy".

On its own? No. But remember where it is placed - it is a highlight of an expansion meant to revive this game.

Hint: yesterday i tried to find groups for metas for the other 3 maps. I know they are being run, and succesfully, (because the statuettes are still relatively cheap and available on tp), but still i haven't managed to find any succesful ones. The unsuccesful ones i found commanders were desperately trying to run with only 5-10 people interested in them.

That's the reality an average player (one that does not know where to find organized communities for those) will meet: 3 empty metas, and the final one too difficult to pass even on a full map. What do you think a reaction of such person would be? Because, to me, it definitely won't be "eh, it's fine".

[IAmNotMatthew.1058]

8 minutes ago, Astralporing.1957 said:

Then you're lucky.

The tried and true argument people use when it comes to DE. "You are lucky"... why was I expecting any other response? I wish my luck wasn't limited to DE squads in this game.