Black lion chest drop rate

[Freya.9075]

When you buy keys, expect to get the guaranteed items and take the rest as bonus items. RNG will be RNG. Sometimes you get two good items in a row and other times nothing at all with 50 keys. 

[Vayne.8563]

On 2/2/2023 at 7:32 AM, NotTooFoolish.7412 said:

Tbh, for those who have permanent contracts even sth like temp bank access is annoying to get from a login chest or blc.
With anvils available everywhere canister feels very useless nowadays.

You're right. Repair cannisters aren't useful. They're also not in black lion chests any more and haven't been for ages.  If you want to see what you can get, right click a chest and choose preview.

 

I honestly don't remember seeing anything like a bank contract for ages and I buy chests quite a few times a year.  The only thing there's a contract for, that I can think of, is the upgrade extractor.  There's also transmutation charges, revive  orbs, lion breaker lockpick chests, tryian exchange vouchers, teleports to friends, black lion claim ticket scraps (and rarely tickets).

Dyes are the thing that I get that annoy me the most, though I'll probably never need another transmutation charge again.

Edited February 2, 2023 by Vayne.8563
typo

[Solvar.7953]

One thing that adds to the opaqueness is other than common, uncommon, rare, etc, is that no odds are actually displayed.  At least things like the lottery, you know what your odds on, including scratch off tickets.

I suspect that if Anet did display the actual odds of the different things, people would more easily see how terrible the odds are and not open any chests.

 

[Danikat.8537]

7 hours ago, Solvar.7953 said:

One thing that adds to the opaqueness is other than common, uncommon, rare, etc, is that no odds are actually displayed.  At least things like the lottery, you know what your odds on, including scratch off tickets.

I suspect that if Anet did display the actual odds of the different things, people would more easily see how terrible the odds are and not open any chests.

I wouldn't count on it, for 2 reasons.

Firstly they'd probably make it hard to find and somewhat unclear. Elder Scrolls Online publishes the odds for crown crates, but a lot of players don't know that, or know where to find it and it's somewhat misleading because it gives the odds of getting any item from a given tier rather than a specific one within it. So they say your chance of getting an apex reward is 2%, but there could be 7 or 8 of them, which considerably lowers your chances of getting the specific one you want.

Secondly and more importantly people are not good at understanding probability. They'll see a 2% drop rate reported and assume that means they're guaranteed the thing they want with 50 tries, because it will happen 2 times in every 100, so it'll happen once in every 50. In reality a 2% drop rate means you're highly likely (about 95% probability) to get it after 150 tries, and after that the odds very gradually increase but will never actually reach 100%, because it's random and hypothetically you could fail every time. (With 50 tries you have about a 63% chance of getting it.)

Also even if people understand the maths there's always the temptation to think they might be the lucky one who beats the odds and gets it sooner than expected.

If displaying the odds enabled everyone to make an informed decision based only on the facts no one would play the lottery or buy scratch cards because they'd understand their chances of ever even breaking even are so tiny it's not worth the risk. It's a compromise which allows the people selling them to make a show of being responsible but doesn't actually discourage sales.

[kiranslee.4829]

Hey. I actually had 45 keys used after last update and got 1 skin weapon. It feels like rates were decreased significantly. Saying that , if rates were higher i would spend RL money to get some of the items from chests every update but here looking at this rates , nahh dont think i will sped a dime.  

[IndigoSundown.5419]

From the wiki:

 

https://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Black_Lion_Chest/Drop_rate

 

As you can see, the chance to get an uncommon item is 0.083 or 8.3% per chest opened.  For rare items, it's 0.02, or 2%.  What that means is that there is a 91.7% chance you WON'T get an uncommon item from any one chest.

 

There is no pity mechanic to either enhance the drop rate or guarantee a specific drop or drop type after X chests opened.  Since there is no cumulative chance, it's very possible to go on extended chest-opening runs with no joy.  If anyone has enjoyed a much better drop rate, they've been lucky.

 

Two logical fallacies play an important role in the loot box business plan.  One is the gambler's fallacy, which is that the chances will improve over repeated attempts to gain a prize.  The other is the sunk-cost fallacy, which comes into play when someone keeps spending because they have already spent a lot and feel that money will have been wasted if they don't continue.

 

It's better to know the odds before you spend, and to consider your financial situation.  This lets you make an informed decision on whether to engage with loot boxes.

Edited February 7, 2023 by IndigoSundown.5419

[DarcShriek.5829]

On 2/3/2023 at 1:43 PM, IndigoSundown.5419 said:

From the wiki:

 

https://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Black_Lion_Chest/Drop_rate

 

As you can see, the chance to get an uncommon item is 0.083 or 8.3% per chest opened.  For rare items, it's 0.2, or 2%.  What that means is that there is a 91.7% chance you WON'T get an uncommon item from any one chest.

 

There is no pity mechanic to either enhance the drop rate or guarantee a specific drop or drop type after X chests opened.  Since there is no cumulative chance, it's very possible to go on extended chest-opening runs with no joy.  If anyone has enjoyed a much better drop rate, they've been lucky.

 

Two logical fallacies play an important role in the loot box business plan.  One is the gambler's fallacy, which is that the chances will improve over repeated attempts to gain a prize.  The other is the sunk-cost fallacy, which comes into play when someone keeps spending because they have already spent a lot and feel that money will have been wasted if they don't continue.

 

It's better to know the odds before you spend, and to consider your financial situation.  This lets you make an informed decision on whether to engage with loot boxes.

.2 is actually a 20% chance, not a 2% chance.

[DarcShriek.5829]

On 2/1/2023 at 2:08 PM, Batel.9206 said:

Random is random. You're not guaranteed anything.

Actually you're guaranteed 4 anythings.

[DarcShriek.5829]

On 2/1/2023 at 6:16 PM, Zeivu.3615 said:

That is why a lot of countries are now trying to ban Loot Boxes. The odds were never in your favor and never will.

I disagree with banning loot boxes.

[Sobx.1758]

1 hour ago, DarcShriek.5829 said:

.2 is actually a 20% chance, not a 2% chance.

Yeah, they've just missed a 0 in the post. Linked page shows 0.02, so it is 2% 😉 

Edited February 5, 2023 by Sobx.1758

[Solvar.7953]

One question on the research page is whether Anet has changed drop rates and if that is reflected on the research page.  I don't think there is any way to know that other than to start a new page that tells people to only enter drops gotten after X date, and then compare to historical ones.

Though looking at the table, drop rates are pretty bad there (uncommon 8.3%, rare 2%, super rare 0.1%).  The in the case of super rare, only 1 has dropped, so margin for error would be high (it could be 0.01% and the one drop was just 'lucky' for all we know)

 

[Inculpatus cedo.9234]

1 hour ago, Solvar.7953 said:

only 1 has dropped,

I got a Super Rare not long ago, the first in 10 years, but I didn't record it in the Wiki.  Sold it for a 1000 Gold right away.  It's now worth way, way less (150-200G).  Lol.

Anyway, the point is that most drops are not recorded; though what is recorded may, or may not, be indicative of the drop rates.

[Astralporing.1957]

On 2/2/2023 at 5:48 PM, Fueki.4753 said:

I really doubt game companies, especially Arenanet, have that kind of license though.

It's not even that. They could obtain a license if they wanted. But that would require two things: first, admitting that what they're doing is gambling, which results in second: having to act within the limits different countries (not just Belgium) apply on gambling. First is just bad PR, but second is much worse - is a loss of income. After all, most of the sleazy marketing methods game companies use for their cash shops would have been completely illegal in gambling business.

As such, withdrawing from a (relatively) small market and pretending the issue was on the other side is for Anet far better than acting according to the regulations. It might be different if gampbling laws would be more strictly applied  in more business-relevant markets (like US, UK, or whole EU), but we'll have to wait for it a bit longer.

Btw, another misconception is that Belgium somehow made some new laws that suddenly applied to lockboxes. It did not, the legal framework about gambling in Belgium remains completely unchanged. What did change was government realization that games can also fall under that umbrella. In reality those laws always covered games, it's just courts were not aware of it. Notice also, that it almost certainly applies to many other countries - any gambling regulation laws that are new enough to apply to stuff like online betting likely already cover games, and all that is needed is an official recognition of this fact.

[Astralporing.1957]

18 hours ago, DarcShriek.5829 said:

I disagree with banning loot boxes.

Like with gambling, noone really wants to ban them. Last time i checked gambling was legal in most (western, at least) countries. What should happen however is for them to get regulated. The same way as all gambling is.

Edited February 6, 2023 by Astralporing.1957

[Fueki.4753]

3 hours ago, Astralporing.1957 said:

Like with gambling, noone really wants to ban them. Last time i checked gambling was legal in most (western, at least) countries. What should happen however is for them to get regulated. The same way as all gambling is.

Honestly, loot boxes ought to disappear from video and computer games.

Games should just put all their monetized stuff on the store, without FOMO or RNG garbage.

Edited February 6, 2023 by Fueki.4753

[Val.7826]

Black Lion Keys statistically are absolutely not worth the gems they cost, never, don't buy them.

Let's say you bought the 25 keys pack for 2100 gems, thet are (according to Gw2Efficiency) 26,25$, worth almost 740 golds.

The chance of uncommon item actually (according to wiki) is around 8,3%, around 2% for rare, so, if you have an avarage luck, in 25 black lion chest you'll find 1 rare item and 2 uncommon items. Let's say you were lucky and you found 2 rare items and 4 uncommons. Rare and uncommons usually are weapon skins with a value (if you keep em and wait) that fluctuate between 10 gold cca. for the ugliest and less used skins and 100/200 gold cca. for most appreciated and sold skins, so let's say that if you are lucky twice, you got 6 items worth 60 golds each (on long-term), for a total value of 360 gold + common items where you should put all your faith for good stuff like tickets that unlock random skins, so yeah, more RNG.

 

Even in a situation like this, you'll struggle to cover the gems value.

 

My advice is to never buy keys for gems, there are much more interesting choices in the shop, choices that give you guaranteed and useful stuff like bank/material/character slot expansion or cosmetics spending proportionally less gems, and open the Black Lion Chests you have only with the keys you retrive in game (and don't expect rare and uncommon stuff, take these as bonuses).

Edited February 6, 2023 by Val.7826

[Khisanth.2948]

2 hours ago, Val.7826 said:

My advice is to never buy keys for gems, there are much more interesting choices in the shop, choices that give you guaranteed and useful stuff like bank/material/character slot expansion or cosmetics spending proportionally less gems, and open the Black Lion Chests you have only with the keys you retrive in game (and don't expect rare and uncommon stuff, take these as bonuses).

Even if you do get an uncommon your chances of getting what you want is only 5%. Which also means that your real chance for getting any specific uncommon is only 0.415% assuming they have unweighted drop rates.

[Shadowmoon.7986]

Play stupid game, win stupid prizes.

[KerryTT.4792]

ehhh, I use 25 black lion keys every time a new chest comes out. Normally get 1 to 2 5th slot items. (I do spend some money each year, my way of giving a little something to the company). Technically, don't really care what I get. If I cared that much about stuff, I would spend some of my 1300+ Black Lion Statuettes. I got the koi back item from chest so had to get some matching koi weapons this go round.

As far as gambling,,, that's why I had my Tarktun Portal and now use my Sandstorm Collectors Edition on occasion 🙂

[stormemperor.3745]

On 2/1/2023 at 10:08 PM, TsakiVs.5976 said:

Hello everyone,

 

I want to complain about the drop rate of the black lion chest's loot table. Today I opened 50 black lion chests and I did not get not even one uncommon item. They were all common drops.

 

I feel so scammed right now and  frustrated that I payed for black lion keys and I did not get any worthy item.

 

Is that a common issue? If that is the case then I guess it's not worth to actually waste money on these.

Buying 200 keys to get the item you wanted? Nope

Randomly getting key from killing monsters and getting the exact item you wanted? Yes

[Rogue.8235]

On 2/3/2023 at 5:06 AM, Danikat.8537 said:

Secondly and more importantly people are not good at understanding probability. They'll see a 2% drop rate reported and assume that means they're guaranteed the thing they want with 50 tries, because it will happen 2 times in every 100, so it'll happen once in every 50. In reality a 2% drop rate means you're highly likely (about 95% probability) to get it after 150 tries, and after that the odds very gradually increase but will never actually reach 100%, because it's random and hypothetically you could fail every time. (With 50 tries you have about a 63% chance of getting it.)

So, so, very true.  The basics of probability, such as whether successive outcomes are dependent or independent, are lost on most people.  This is before even getting into things like probability curves to include skew and kurtosis, or chi-square. 

On 2/3/2023 at 2:43 PM, IndigoSundown.5419 said:

There is no pity mechanic to either enhance the drop rate or guarantee a specific drop or drop type after X chests opened.  Since there is no cumulative chance, it's very possible to go on extended chest-opening runs with no joy.  If anyone has enjoyed a much better drop rate, they've been lucky.

This emphasizes what @Danikat.8537said.  Outcomes are independent, which many seem not to be able to grasp.  This leads to:

On 2/3/2023 at 2:43 PM, IndigoSundown.5419 said:

Two logical fallacies play an important role in the loot box business plan.  One is the gambler's fallacy, which is that the chances will improve over repeated attempts to gain a prize.  The other is the sunk-cost fallacy, which comes into play when someone keeps spending because they have already spent a lot and feel that money will have been wasted if they don't continue.

These fallacies are continuously demonstrated with these kinds of threads.  The biggest example of, and defining event which named the fallacy, is the incident at the Monte Carlo Casino of 1913.

 

Essentially, the number of keys you use, and the number of chests you open, is completely irrelevant.  Knowing the exact probability of obtaining a specific item from a Black Lion Chest, while informative, isn't actually useful to most players, who would not fully understand what the probabilities mean.

Another example of very useful, yet completely useless, information is the Nutrition Facts label on every packaged consumable.  Most people don't know what specific nutrition is needed, and in what quantities, specific to their homeostatic metabolism, is required per day.  The nutrition label is useful information that is useless due to lack of understanding on the part of the consumer.

Here, probability information is useful, but useless, due to the lack of understanding of probability.

 

Edited February 7, 2023 by Rogue.8235
one stupid typo

[Holmindeboks.3490]

i think if gw2 sold their skins from chest for fair prices like 10 euro each then maybe the game was already in maintenance mode because that way they earn not enough. mmo is all about gambling and show off. one person get item easy, starting to show off, and (10 ppl total) 8 others are wasting their money on those keys and 2 of them waste their hard earned gold on the keys.
i once gambled the first 400 gems from achievements reward on keys because a friend ingame got 2x permafrost, i tried it too. lost my 400 gems + some gold for more keys. never forget this. i call it greed. 

someone told me a few days ago about new wow expansion the new class killed sha of anger and the rarest mount ingame dropped 40% chance for them, mounts value dropped very much, then they increased mounts droprate very much so now. 
would be nice such thing happens to infusion drops ingame. no, i don't want to be negative, but i hate greed. and this drops are ridiculous unfair in my opinion, once met someone at pinata, after a few years i saw her/him got the infusion so i asked if the person got it dropped. no the person bought it after 2 YEARS killing it daily without any luck, ridiculous.

droprates should be not based on magic find but character (account) age. 
i also read someone on the forum got the chak infusion while his account was just 2 months old. 
sad programming. 

[IndigoSundown.5419]

On 2/5/2023 at 10:34 AM, DarcShriek.5829 said:

.2 is actually a 20% chance, not a 2% chance.

Looked again, it's 0.02.  I got the percentage right, just left out a 0 on the number.

Edited February 7, 2023 by IndigoSundown.5419

[WillowWisp.6497]

You sir, just witnessed your first gambling problem. There are times you may be lucky or unlucky but please don't spend anymore money unless you have enough to say "Yeah I think I'll get some keys today and try my luck". It's designed to give you good stuff extremely rarely, like this permanent hairstyle contract I wanted from Black Lion Chests but they're going for 2,000+ gold and I cried inside. 

It's a light-hearted comment, don't hate me.

[Gehenna.3625]

On 2/2/2023 at 5:11 PM, Khisanth.2948 said:

They classified it as gambling but not sure why everyone is trying to imply gambling is illegal in Belgium. It does require having an appropriate license and licenses for all the staff.

And I would think that for a game to have what Belgium considers gambling in it, it would have to have an 18+ rating as well and not a teen rating as it is now.