The economy of Tyria is destroyed

[VAHNeunzehnsechundsiebzig.]

@ShinigamiPL.4086 said:

@Friday.7864 said:while i agree in general with your opinion it's worth to remember that so called farming does not bring you the experiance needed to play high lvl content. And it is quit sad that runing for 2 hours with shovel or spamming '1' against charrs brings you more profit with less effort and risk than going for high fractals, wvw etc. So while maps might get empty as you predict, some players may move to group content

drizzlewood gives you some mats, but it does not give you asc. gear, like Fractals, Raids or WvW does.

[Strider Pj.2193]

@Hesione.9412 said:

@Friday.7864 said:

They're handing out clovers for doing the new map, no? Why not add some token system instead for doing various things like world bosses, dungeons or central tyria metas instead? I'd love a reason to do world bosses again outside of yearly events. Or dungeons outside of needing some gift or runes...

The clovers from the reward tracks bring PvE, finally, into line with PvP and WvW for obtaining clovers via reward tracks. Yes, you can get clovers from the vendor in Fractals. But the number of fractal relics required for one clover, compared to doing PvP or WvW reward tracks, makes this a much slower path for getting clovers.

Now all they need to do is add Gift of the Battle to the PvE reward tracks and no WvW players will complain about PvE players coming into WvW only to get that Gift.

Win-win.

As soon as they release a ‘Gift of WvW Exploration’ that works for every required gift of exploration, or gift of magnums mastery etc, I will be on board.

Until then? Nope

[Super Hayes.6890]

@"Turkeyspit.3965" said:Anyone else remember the same arguments/complaints being made during the last Boss Blitz event, where we had mats raining on us from the heavens? The game still appears to be here...

Anyone remember when leather was basically free then Anet fixed it by adding literal patches to armor crafting? My advice is buy everything you want then complain so when Anet "fixes" it you have everything you want before the prices spike lol.

[Hesione.9412]

@Strider Pj.2193 said:

@Hesione.9412 said:

@Friday.7864 said:

They're handing out clovers for doing the new map, no? Why not add some token system instead for doing various things like world bosses, dungeons or central tyria metas instead? I'd love a reason to do world bosses again outside of yearly events. Or dungeons outside of needing some gift or runes...

The clovers from the reward tracks bring PvE, finally, into line with PvP and WvW for obtaining clovers via reward tracks. Yes, you can get clovers from the vendor in Fractals. But the number of fractal relics required for one clover, compared to doing PvP or WvW reward tracks, makes this a much slower path for getting clovers.

Now all they need to do is add Gift of the Battle to the PvE reward tracks and no WvW players will complain about PvE players coming into WvW only to get that Gift.

Win-win.

As soon as they release a ‘Gift of WvW Exploration’ that works for every required gift of exploration, or gift of magnums mastery etc, I will be on board.

Until then? Nope

WvW exploration is a lot easier than either of those. With a mount and 4 maps, WvW exploration would take about 1-2 hours.

[Strider Pj.2193]

@Hesione.9412 said:

@Strider Pj.2193 said:

@Hesione.9412 said:

@Friday.7864 said:

They're handing out clovers for doing the new map, no? Why not add some token system instead for doing various things like world bosses, dungeons or central tyria metas instead? I'd love a reason to do world bosses again outside of yearly events. Or dungeons outside of needing some gift or runes...

The clovers from the reward tracks bring PvE, finally, into line with PvP and WvW for obtaining clovers via reward tracks. Yes, you can get clovers from the vendor in Fractals. But the number of fractal relics required for one clover, compared to doing PvP or WvW reward tracks, makes this a much slower path for getting clovers.

Now all they need to do is add Gift of the Battle to the PvE reward tracks and no WvW players will complain about PvE players coming into WvW only to get that Gift.

Win-win.

As soon as they release a ‘Gift of WvW Exploration’ that works for every required gift of exploration, or gift of magnums mastery etc, I will be on board.

Until then? Nope

WvW exploration is a lot easier than either of those. With a mount and 4 maps, WvW exploration would take about 1-2 hours.

And the GoB track takes 4-5 hours with boosters. Your point is what?

[ShinigamiPL.4086]

@"VAHNeunzehnsechundsiebzig.3618" said:

@ShinigamiPL.4086 said:

@"Friday.7864" said:while i agree in general with your opinion it's worth to remember that so called farming does not bring you the experiance needed to play high lvl content. And it is quit sad that runing for 2 hours with shovel or spamming '1' against charrs brings you more profit with less effort and risk than going for high fractals, wvw etc. So while maps might get empty as you predict, some players may move to group content

drizzlewood gives you some mats, but it does not give you asc. gear, like Fractals, Raids or WvW does.

yeah, but keep in mind that if u wanna estimate value of a thing you can take differents path to do it. One would be answering the question "how much mats would i need to craft that asc gear piece ny myself", but other would be: "what's the market value? How much others will pay me ". So if you are in a need for a specific item and it will drop for you then sure - it will be nice. But if you gather money for eg. legendary item, skin, blt company upgrades - that asc gear is in fact useless. Not to mention that daily rewards are like ... daily. So first hour of playing fractals might be much more profitable than the second or third. And that's also my issue with farming methods - they are keeping stream of money all day long.

[Eloc Freidon.5692]

@Linken.6345 said:

@Shiyo.3578 said:

@"Excursion.9752" said:I am happy to see prices drop. I hope they stay that way.

Enjoy vendoring all your drops because TP is below vendor value I guess.

When this is coming that would be a huge waste.

https://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Zephyrite_Supply_Box

That box was proven to be a colossal loss to everyone who dumped into it. The drop pool was filled with garbage of no value in every tier.

[Hesione.9412]

@Strider Pj.2193 said:

@Hesione.9412 said:

@Strider Pj.2193 said:

@Hesione.9412 said:

@Friday.7864 said:

They're handing out clovers for doing the new map, no? Why not add some token system instead for doing various things like world bosses, dungeons or central tyria metas instead? I'd love a reason to do world bosses again outside of yearly events. Or dungeons outside of needing some gift or runes...

The clovers from the reward tracks bring PvE, finally, into line with PvP and WvW for obtaining clovers via reward tracks. Yes, you can get clovers from the vendor in Fractals. But the number of fractal relics required for one clover, compared to doing PvP or WvW reward tracks, makes this a much slower path for getting clovers.

Now all they need to do is add Gift of the Battle to the PvE reward tracks and no WvW players will complain about PvE players coming into WvW only to get that Gift.

Win-win.

As soon as they release a ‘Gift of WvW Exploration’ that works for every required gift of exploration, or gift of magnums mastery etc, I will be on board.

Until then? Nope

WvW exploration is a lot easier than either of those. With a mount and 4 maps, WvW exploration would take about 1-2 hours.

And the GoB track takes 4-5 hours with boosters. Your point is what?

How long do you think the PvE reward tracks take? And no boosters work on them. Previously you were okay with the suggestion of changing the GoB method, let me remind you:

Me: The clovers from the reward tracks bring PvE, finally, into line with PvP and WvW for obtaining clovers via reward tracks. Yes, you can get clovers from the vendor in Fractals. But the number of fractal relics required for one clover, compared to doing PvP or WvW reward tracks, makes this a much slower path for getting clovers.Now all they need to do is add Gift of the Battle to the PvE reward tracks and no WvW players will complain about PvE players coming into WvW only to get that Gift.Win-win.

You: As soon as they release a ‘Gift of WvW Exploration’ that works for every required gift of exploration, or gift of magnums mastery etc, I will be on board.Until then? Nope

What is your point?

[Strider Pj.2193]

@Hesione.9412 said:

@Strider Pj.2193 said:

@Hesione.9412 said:

@Strider Pj.2193 said:

@Hesione.9412 said:

@Friday.7864 said:

They're handing out clovers for doing the new map, no? Why not add some token system instead for doing various things like world bosses, dungeons or central tyria metas instead? I'd love a reason to do world bosses again outside of yearly events. Or dungeons outside of needing some gift or runes...

The clovers from the reward tracks bring PvE, finally, into line with PvP and WvW for obtaining clovers via reward tracks. Yes, you can get clovers from the vendor in Fractals. But the number of fractal relics required for one clover, compared to doing PvP or WvW reward tracks, makes this a much slower path for getting clovers.

Now all they need to do is add Gift of the Battle to the PvE reward tracks and no WvW players will complain about PvE players coming into WvW only to get that Gift.

Win-win.

As soon as they release a ‘Gift of WvW Exploration’ that works for every required gift of exploration, or gift of magnums mastery etc, I will be on board.

Until then? Nope

WvW exploration is a lot easier than either of those. With a mount and 4 maps, WvW exploration would take about 1-2 hours.

And the GoB track takes 4-5 hours with boosters. Your point is what?

How long do you think the PvE reward tracks take? And no boosters work on them. Previously you were okay with the suggestion of changing the GoB method, let me remind you:

Me: The clovers from the reward tracks bring PvE, finally, into line with PvP and WvW for obtaining clovers via reward tracks. Yes, you can get clovers from the vendor in Fractals. But the number of fractal relics required for one clover, compared to doing PvP or WvW reward tracks, makes this a much slower path for getting clovers.Now all they need to do is add Gift of the Battle to the PvE reward tracks and no WvW players will complain about PvE players coming into WvW only to get that Gift.Win-win.

You: As soon as they release a ‘Gift of WvW Exploration’ that works for every required gift of exploration, or gift of magnums mastery etc, I will be on board.Until then? Nope

What is your point?

So.. you still didn’t address it. I can’t complete a legendary without doing some map completion in PvE.

You can’t complete a legendary without gift of battle.

So, you want GoB in reward track, I want GoE (or it’s equivalent) by completing WvW camp completion.

Or, better yet, give me a reward track in WvW for them as well! Win win!

[Hesione.9412]

@Strider Pj.2193 said:

You can’t complete a legendary without gift of battle.

So, you want GoB in reward track, I want GoE (or it’s equivalent) by completing WvW camp completion.

Or, better yet, give me a reward track in WvW for them as well! Win win!

All I have said about exploration is that WvW exploration is much quicker than PvE exploration. Four maps, plus you have a mount.

[Jojo.6140]

@Hesione.9412 said:Me: The clovers from the reward tracks bring PvE, finally, into line with PvP and WvW for obtaining clovers via reward tracks. Yes, you can get clovers from the vendor in Fractals. But the number of fractal relics required for one clover, compared to doing PvP or WvW reward tracks, makes this a much slower path for getting clovers.

If you do CMs + T4s, that gives you more than enough fractal relics to purchase the daily 2 clovers, and that only takes 1 hour max. So its much faster than the pvp or wvw reward tracks.

[Strider Pj.2193]

@Hesione.9412 said:

@Strider Pj.2193 said:

You can’t complete a legendary without gift of battle.

So, you want GoB in reward track, I want GoE (or it’s equivalent) by completing WvW camp completion.

Or, better yet, give me a reward track in WvW for them as well! Win win!

All I have said about exploration is that WvW exploration is much quicker than PvE exploration. Four maps, plus you have a mount.

And all I have said about GoB is I am OK with it being part of the PvE ‘Reward track’ if the Gift of Exploration (or it’s area competitive gift) if in a WvW reward track or allow there to be a ‘Gift of WvW exploration’.

[Astralporing.1957]

Add a "shard of exploration" to the final diamond chest. Make a few shards create a gift of exploration of your choosing. Problem solved.

[Rogue.8235]

@"Urud.4925" said:So if the game has meaningless loot "meh, I have nothing to do, the farm is so poor, we need better rewards for our time and efforts". If the loot increases "meh, now mats' price lowered, I cannot sell my stuff at high price".Idk, what do ppl want? Increase only your loot? It's an MMO, if we get better rewards, everyone will get them. And I don't think it's something bad.

If everyone gets valuable loot, wouldn't that make the loot worthless? Or are you suggesting that only you should get the valuable loot and no one else. You have to realize that you're not the only person playing this game.

@Psientist.6437 said:I am not a professional economist but that won't stop me from making assumptions about the Tyrian economy.

The game experienced a widespread slump in demand for everything except high end skins. The best indicator of this is the slump in the gem/gold exchange rate that eventually stabilized. GW2 is a mature game, it is very unlikely that we are experiencing a persistent increase in the demand for gem to gold conversions. Especially if price deflation is real. The slump in the price of ascended crafting components and the continued increase in the price of Mystic coins are also strong indicators. Mystic coins are stabilizing which may indicate we've reached max demand for high end skins. In general, the demand for TP and gem goods is lower today than it was 5-6 months ago. The newest zone does seem generous and may represent an effort to induce new demand which would be healthy for the economy. The only way to induce new demand for an extent investment meta is to lower cost or add features. Imo, a new investment meta would be even healthier. Imo, cosmetics aren't enough and the focus on them becomes more cheesy as the story becomes more serious.

Shocks to market prices aren't necessarily due to lack of demand. A shock to supply in homogeneous markets will wee a drop because demand cannot keep up with supply, even if demand were to increase by a marginal amount.

Drop in gold to gems indicates that less people are converting gold to gems and more people are converting gems to gold. Your conclusion on this matter isn't valid because it does not take into account any intangibles. Actually re-reading it, it doesn't take into account any other quantifiable data either. There is far more at work than you realize.Your argument that an equilibrium in prices is an indication of a failing economy is just not how anything works. If prices increased in perpetuity in a closed economy with no external interactions, then something is very wrong. Inflation is why prices will always increase in perpetuity in the real world. And a healthy inflation is about 3%-5% depending on global interaction. If prices were to suddenly become static in the real world, that means inflation has reached 0% and yes that would be bad. Deflation is very bad. However, you're trying to argue that a reduction in the dynamic of prices is cause for concern and then point to the incorrect cause if it were a problem. Prices are reaching equilibrium and that's a very good thing. Market velocity is still quick for the commodities markets which is good.

Essentially you're trying to validate a supply-side view point of why prices are bad. Supply side wants prices to be higher. Not high just higher than it is right now, doesn't matter what the current point is. The higher the price the more value you get out of market exchanges. This viewpoint completely disregards any demand side factors.

EDIT:Want to emphasize that all economic analysis for GW2 must take into account that it is a closed virtual economy. Your economic analysis does not do this. Even more, you would have to take the additional step that GW2 has a single external interaction to its closed system that is laden with confounding variables.Essentially, you have to understand regular macro-economics, regular micro-economics, understand the interaction of regular macro and micro, understand how a closed system changes things, understand how a virtual system changes things, understand how a closed and virtual system changes things, and finally understand that GW2 is 99% closed and 100% virtual.

[keenedge.9675]

@frareanselm.1925 said:Just have a look at the price of things in the trading post. Everything is half the price that use to be in March.

Make lemonade with lemons.I've been feasting on raw mats.

Some things are up but you will have to find those because people who search don't share money-making bits like those.

[Psientist.6437]

@Rogue.8235 said:

@Psientist.6437 said:I am not a professional economist but that won't stop me from making assumptions about the Tyrian economy.

The game experienced a widespread slump in demand for everything except high end skins. The best indicator of this is the slump in the gem/gold exchange rate that eventually stabilized. GW2 is a mature game, it is very unlikely that we are experiencing a persistent increase in the demand for gem to gold conversions. Especially if price deflation is real. The slump in the price of ascended crafting components and the continued increase in the price of Mystic coins are also strong indicators. Mystic coins are stabilizing which may indicate we've reached max demand for high end skins. In general, the demand for TP and gem goods is lower today than it was 5-6 months ago. The newest zone does seem generous and may represent an effort to induce new demand which would be healthy for the economy. The only way to induce new demand for an extent investment meta is to lower cost or add features. Imo, a new investment meta would be even healthier. Imo, cosmetics aren't enough and the focus on them becomes more cheesy as the story becomes more serious.

Shocks to market prices aren't necessarily due to lack of demand. A shock to supply in homogeneous markets will wee a drop because demand cannot keep up with supply, even if demand were to increase by a marginal amount.

Drop in gold to gems indicates that less people are converting gold to gems and more people are converting gems to gold. Your conclusion on this matter isn't valid because it does not take into account any intangibles. Actually re-reading it, it doesn't take into account any other quantifiable data either. There is far more at work than you realize.Your argument that an equilibrium in prices is an indication of a failing economy is just not how anything works. If prices increased in perpetuity in a closed economy with no external interactions, then something is very wrong. Inflation is why prices will always increase in perpetuity in the real world. And a healthy inflation is about 3%-5% depending on global interaction. If prices were to suddenly become static in the real world, that means inflation has reached 0% and yes that would be bad. Deflation is very bad. However, you're trying to argue that a reduction in the dynamic of prices is cause for concern and then point to the incorrect cause if it were a problem. Prices are reaching equilibrium and that's a very good thing. Market velocity is still quick for the commodities markets which is good.

Essentially you're trying to validate a supply-side view point of why prices are bad. Supply side wants prices to be higher. Not high just higher than it is right now, doesn't matter what the current point is. The higher the price the more value you get out of market exchanges. This viewpoint completely disregards any demand side factors.

EDIT:Want to emphasize that all economic analysis for GW2 must take into account that it is a closed virtual economy. Your economic analysis does not do this. Even more, you would have to take the additional step that GW2 has a single external interaction to its closed system that is laden with confounding variables.Essentially, you have to understand regular macro-economics, regular micro-economics, understand the interaction of regular macro and micro, understand how a closed system changes things, understand how a virtual system changes things, understand how a closed and virtual system changes things, and finally understand that GW2 is 99% closed and 100% virtual.

The principle that the supply and demand of any one good or service seeks an equilibrium price is valid and unavoidable. The price of an apple will go up or down according to relative change in supply and demand. Widespread increase in the prices of existing good and services, apples to zebras, is called inflation and widespread decrease is called deflation. The validity and inevitability of the micro-economic principle of supply and demand equilibrium doesn't prevent the macro-economic principle that deflation can be unhealthy for GDP from also being valid. You seem to be arguing it does. Deflation can be healthy for GDP, but only when GDP is falling and new demand needs to be discovered. Without new goods and services or a continued demand for existing, deflation will result in lower GDP than when deflation started.

Supply side theory's main principle is that the specific form taken by demand is dependent on supply. You may be hungry and demand food, but supply has complete control over the form food takes. Any variation in the quality of GDP, new goods or service, is the result of supply. The GW2 economy is an extreme example of the validity of supply side theory. The demand for Tyrian goods and services exists but lacks distinct form and only becomes economic activity when supply provides goods and services. The studio provides a very high and stable standard of living. Ascended gear isn't required for most content and there are few recurring expenses. The Tyrian economy is vulnerable to a lack of demand induced by a lack of new goods and services.

You are exaggerating the significance of being virtual and closed and how closed the Tyrian economy is. Virtual economies may sustain economies with features not found in the real world but those features will always form economies according to real world principles. Because of their size and transparency, virtual economies are easier to understand than real world economies. The Tyrian economy can not be described as closed. If, as you say, the conversion of gems to gold is an outside source of work, then the percentage of GDP open to outside work is equivalent to every demand that can be filled using gold. To this percentage, we would have to add the studio's role as the external supplier of all GDP variety innovation. The Tyrian economy isn't closed but that isn't terribly important unless the external source of work increases the risk posed by low supply innovation.

We should be concerned with deflation but I don't want to exaggerate my ability to identify deflation or rank its causes. I think my original post is correct though. The economy isn't destroyed, just very mature and enjoying time spent in the park.

[Klypto.1703]

@Josiah.2967 said:Its only a matter of time until they release new legendaries. Then we wil have another post that prices went up to much.

It's always the ones selling any drop 5 seconds after they get it to devalue the material they just undercut someone to sell and then complaining about the economy when they are the kinds of players that ruin the economy in the first place.

[keenedge.9675]

We still have to wonder what fiasco is over the horizon with the 2nd half of Drizzlewood weapon builds.

I didn't start mine yet ONLY because of the 'issues' with the last batch. I have resources already and will buy mats as needed. (I think all vets are thinking the same)

[Rogue.8235]

@Psientist.6437 said:

@Rogue.8235 said:

@Psientist.6437 said:I am not a professional economist but that won't stop me from making assumptions about the Tyrian economy.

The game experienced a widespread slump in demand for everything except high end skins. The best indicator of this is the slump in the gem/gold exchange rate that eventually stabilized. GW2 is a mature game, it is very unlikely that we are experiencing a persistent increase in the demand for gem to gold conversions. Especially if price deflation is real. The slump in the price of ascended crafting components and the continued increase in the price of Mystic coins are also strong indicators. Mystic coins are stabilizing which may indicate we've reached max demand for high end skins. In general, the demand for TP and gem goods is lower today than it was 5-6 months ago. The newest zone does seem generous and may represent an effort to induce new demand which would be healthy for the economy. The only way to induce new demand for an extent investment meta is to lower cost or add features. Imo, a new investment meta would be even healthier. Imo, cosmetics aren't enough and the focus on them becomes more cheesy as the story becomes more serious.

Shocks to market prices aren't necessarily due to lack of demand. A shock to supply in homogeneous markets will wee a drop because demand cannot keep up with supply, even if demand were to increase by a marginal amount.

Drop in gold to gems indicates that less people are converting gold to gems and more people are converting gems to gold. Your conclusion on this matter isn't valid because it does not take into account any intangibles. Actually re-reading it, it doesn't take into account any other quantifiable data either. There is far more at work than you realize.Your argument that an equilibrium in prices is an indication of a failing economy is just not how anything works. If prices increased in perpetuity in a closed economy with no external interactions, then something is very wrong. Inflation is why prices will always increase in perpetuity in the real world. And a healthy inflation is about 3%-5% depending on global interaction. If prices were to suddenly become static in the real world, that means inflation has reached 0% and yes that would be bad. Deflation is very bad. However, you're trying to argue that a reduction in the dynamic of prices is cause for concern and then point to the incorrect cause if it were a problem. Prices are reaching equilibrium and that's a very good thing. Market velocity is still quick for the commodities markets which is good.

Essentially you're trying to validate a supply-side view point of why prices are bad. Supply side wants prices to be higher. Not high just higher than it is right now, doesn't matter what the current point is. The higher the price the more value you get out of market exchanges. This viewpoint completely disregards any demand side factors.

EDIT:Want to emphasize that all economic analysis for GW2 must take into account that it is a closed virtual economy. Your economic analysis does not do this. Even more, you would have to take the additional step that GW2 has a single external interaction to its closed system that is laden with confounding variables.Essentially, you have to understand regular macro-economics, regular micro-economics, understand the interaction of regular macro and micro, understand how a closed system changes things, understand how a virtual system changes things, understand how a closed and virtual system changes things, and finally understand that GW2 is 99% closed and 100% virtual.

The principle that the supply and demand of any one good or service seeks an equilibrium price is valid and unavoidable. The price of an apple will go up or down according to relative change in supply and demand. Widespread increase in the prices of existing good and services, apples to zebras, is called inflation and widespread decrease is called deflation. The validity and inevitability of the micro-economic principle of supply and demand equilibrium doesn't prevent the macro-economic principle that deflation can be unhealthy for GDP from also being valid. You seem to be arguing it does. Deflation can be healthy for GDP, but only when GDP is falling and new demand needs to be discovered. Without new goods and services or a continued demand for existing, deflation will result in lower GDP than when deflation started.

Supply side theory's main principle is that the specific form taken by demand is dependent on supply. You may be hungry and demand food, but supply has complete control over the form food takes. Any variation in the quality of GDP, new goods or service, is the result of supply. The GW2 economy is an extreme example of the validity of supply side theory. The demand for Tyrian goods and services exists but lacks distinct form and only becomes economic activity when supply provides goods and services. The studio provides a very high and stable standard of living. Ascended gear isn't required for most content and there are few recurring expenses. The Tyrian economy is vulnerable to a lack of demand induced by a lack of new goods and services.

You are exaggerating the significance of being virtual and closed and how closed the Tyrian economy is. Virtual economies may sustain economies with features not found in the real world but those features will always form economies according to real world principles. Because of their size and transparency, virtual economies are easier to understand than real world economies. The Tyrian economy can not be described as closed. If, as you say, the conversion of gems to gold is an outside source of work, then the percentage of GDP open to outside work is equivalent to every demand that can be filled using gold. To this percentage, we would have to add the studio's role as the external supplier of all GDP variety innovation. The Tyrian economy isn't closed but that isn't terribly important unless the external source of work increases the risk posed by low supply innovation.

We should be concerned with deflation but I don't want to exaggerate my ability to identify deflation or rank its causes. I think my original post is correct though. The economy isn't destroyed, just very mature and enjoying time spent in the park.

I stand corrected on supply-side theory. I would still argue that deflation is bad in the real world, but not necessarily so in a virutal world.

The rudimentary theories of economics still hold in a virtual economy. What you are missing is that resources are unlimited, currency and goods are created from nothing, and positional goods are disproportionally causal to the direct value of goods in an MMO. Resource economics is vastly different in MMO economies than in the real world. These things alone make for very different interactions and behaviors. Yes, concepts you learn in the introduction to micro- macroeconomics still apply, but there are nuances that make virtual economies very different.

I stand corrected on the closed issue, though I'll argue that most real world events do not impact the virtual economies of MMO's. A natural disaster in one part of the world will not produce huge market shocks in GW2. I have seen no empirical evidence indicating otherwise.

As for if the GW2 economy is destroyed, definitely not. To see what a destroyed economy looks like you can research events in the real world. Iceland's day of craziness from international currency exchange speculation comes to mind. Also the Greek financial crisis because they were not in a position to tie their economy to the Euro in the first place. USA 1929.

Again, the GW2 economy is not destroyed if an individual is not completely satisfied with prices.

[Psientist.6437]

@Rogue.8235 said:

@Psientist.6437 said:

@Rogue.8235 said:

@Psientist.6437 said:I am not a professional economist but that won't stop me from making assumptions about the Tyrian economy.

The game experienced a widespread slump in demand for everything except high end skins. The best indicator of this is the slump in the gem/gold exchange rate that eventually stabilized. GW2 is a mature game, it is very unlikely that we are experiencing a persistent increase in the demand for gem to gold conversions. Especially if price deflation is real. The slump in the price of ascended crafting components and the continued increase in the price of Mystic coins are also strong indicators. Mystic coins are stabilizing which may indicate we've reached max demand for high end skins. In general, the demand for TP and gem goods is lower today than it was 5-6 months ago. The newest zone does seem generous and may represent an effort to induce new demand which would be healthy for the economy. The only way to induce new demand for an extent investment meta is to lower cost or add features. Imo, a new investment meta would be even healthier. Imo, cosmetics aren't enough and the focus on them becomes more cheesy as the story becomes more serious.

Shocks to market prices aren't necessarily due to lack of demand. A shock to supply in homogeneous markets will wee a drop because demand cannot keep up with supply, even if demand were to increase by a marginal amount.

Drop in gold to gems indicates that less people are converting gold to gems and more people are converting gems to gold. Your conclusion on this matter isn't valid because it does not take into account any intangibles. Actually re-reading it, it doesn't take into account any other quantifiable data either. There is far more at work than you realize.Your argument that an equilibrium in prices is an indication of a failing economy is just not how anything works. If prices increased in perpetuity in a closed economy with no external interactions, then something is very wrong. Inflation is why prices will always increase in perpetuity in the real world. And a healthy inflation is about 3%-5% depending on global interaction. If prices were to suddenly become static in the real world, that means inflation has reached 0% and yes that would be bad. Deflation is very bad. However, you're trying to argue that a reduction in the dynamic of prices is cause for concern and then point to the incorrect cause if it were a problem. Prices are reaching equilibrium and that's a very good thing. Market velocity is still quick for the commodities markets which is good.

Essentially you're trying to validate a supply-side view point of why prices are bad. Supply side wants prices to be higher. Not high just higher than it is right now, doesn't matter what the current point is. The higher the price the more value you get out of market exchanges. This viewpoint completely disregards any demand side factors.

EDIT:Want to emphasize that all economic analysis for GW2 must take into account that it is a closed virtual economy. Your economic analysis does not do this. Even more, you would have to take the additional step that GW2 has a single external interaction to its closed system that is laden with confounding variables.Essentially, you have to understand regular macro-economics, regular micro-economics, understand the interaction of regular macro and micro, understand how a closed system changes things, understand how a virtual system changes things, understand how a closed and virtual system changes things, and finally understand that GW2 is 99% closed and 100% virtual.

The principle that the supply and demand of any one good or service seeks an equilibrium price is valid and unavoidable. The price of an apple will go up or down according to relative change in supply and demand. Widespread increase in the prices of existing good and services, apples to zebras, is called inflation and widespread decrease is called deflation. The validity and inevitability of the micro-economic principle of supply and demand equilibrium doesn't prevent the macro-economic principle that deflation can be unhealthy for GDP from also being valid. You seem to be arguing it does. Deflation can be healthy for GDP, but only when GDP is falling and new demand needs to be discovered. Without new goods and services or a continued demand for existing, deflation will result in lower GDP than when deflation started.

Supply side theory's main principle is that the specific form taken by demand is dependent on supply. You may be hungry and demand food, but supply has complete control over the form food takes. Any variation in the quality of GDP, new goods or service, is the result of supply. The GW2 economy is an extreme example of the validity of supply side theory. The demand for Tyrian goods and services exists but lacks distinct form and only becomes economic activity when supply provides goods and services. The studio provides a very high and stable standard of living. Ascended gear isn't required for most content and there are few recurring expenses. The Tyrian economy is vulnerable to a lack of demand induced by a lack of new goods and services.

You are exaggerating the significance of being virtual and closed and how closed the Tyrian economy is. Virtual economies may sustain economies with features not found in the real world but those features will always form economies according to real world principles. Because of their size and transparency, virtual economies are easier to understand than real world economies. The Tyrian economy can not be described as closed. If, as you say, the conversion of gems to gold is an outside source of work, then the percentage of GDP open to outside work is equivalent to every demand that can be filled using gold. To this percentage, we would have to add the studio's role as the external supplier of all GDP variety innovation. The Tyrian economy isn't closed but that isn't terribly important unless the external source of work increases the risk posed by low supply innovation.

We should be concerned with deflation but I don't want to exaggerate my ability to identify deflation or rank its causes. I think my original post is correct though. The economy isn't destroyed, just very mature and enjoying time spent in the park.

I stand corrected on supply-side theory. I would still argue that deflation is bad in the real world, but not necessarily so in a virutal world.

The rudimentary theories of economics still hold in a virtual economy. What you are missing is that resources are unlimited, currency and goods are created from nothing, and positional goods are disproportionally causal to the direct value of goods in an MMO. Resource economics is vastly different in MMO economies than in the real world. These things alone make for very different interactions and behaviors. Yes, concepts you learn in the introduction to micro- macroeconomics still apply, but there are nuances that make virtual economies very different.

I stand corrected on the closed issue, though I'll argue that most real world events do not impact the virtual economies of MMO's. A natural disaster in one part of the world will not produce huge market shocks in GW2. I have seen no empirical evidence indicating otherwise.

As for if the GW2 economy is destroyed, definitely not. To see what a destroyed economy looks like you can research events in the real world. Iceland's day of craziness from international currency exchange speculation comes to mind. Also the Greek financial crisis because they were not in a position to tie their economy to the Euro in the first place. USA 1929.

Again, the GW2 economy is not destroyed if an individual is not completely satisfied with prices.

Hello and thank you for remaining open and respectful.

So....

Resources in an mmo, including currency, aren't functionally unlimited. Supply is directly proportional to how much work players put into earning rewards. The fact that the studio can experience near zero cost to duplicate resources does not apply to players or the player economy. The paper you linked in the other thread about the economy makes this same mistake. Imo, it masks the belief that mmo players are irrational for valuing goods made from pixels.

Positional goods can play a very important role in structuring an mmo economy.

When deflation occurs it is more difficult for players to use the things they don't want to earn the things they do want. It becomes harder for the average player to move up through lifestyle tiers. As deflation progresses upwards through lifestyle tiers, the number of goods that a player can use to fund their lifestyle decreases. As demand for each lifestyle tier is satisfied, the number of goods in demand and the number of buyers decreases. Imo, you and others have it backwards. The fact that some people are getting great deals doesn't make the economy healthy. Most of the negative effects of deflation carry over from the real world. That being said, cycles of low and high economic activity are completely natural and we will hopefully see a rebound. With deflation it may be easier to maintain a lifestyle tier but it is harder to climb to a higher tier and a player is less likely to discover resources that are in demand, limiting their agency.