Need more clarity around 60% success rate in DE meta

[Malus.2184]

1 hour ago, yann.1946 said:

Which ones of the two do you think was a casestudy? Your example of an average group having 60/40 WR with the same people or your example where your group failed at 5%?

At the beginning of that post where I said that is was a case study? You most likely think that this is a valid argument and it only shows that you've no idea what you're talking about. This would normally mean little, however, you base your entire argument around the understanding of this, and since this is flawed, your argument is as well.

[Gorem.8104]

9 hours ago, Labjax.2465 said:

That's PR for you. And if we're being real, it often works because a lot of people won't have the time for, or interest in, investigating past fluffy, confidently made claims.

 

Yeah true that, and my guess is a year from now all posts made today to since EoD launch will be mostly forgotten as we move onto other things. DE will just become like Serpents Ire and require you setting up a group beforehand for the meta to even progress past the escort part. It'll just be a meme in the end as they never truly did fix the thing by removing the rng, buffing reward progression and removing the pre entirely. But honestly tired of this topic, and already know there is limits to how much you can talk about things here, already been banned twice here, kinda puts a sting on making new posts about popular topics. 

[Malus.2184]

There's nothing imaginary of "an average player," ANet has all the performance (P) data (this is the DPS done) for every player, can from that data create a spectrum, and define an average value of everyone's performance.

DE is an activity (A). It has a binary outcome of either (success) or (failure). A 50/50 split. The only thing interesting is how executions of the A are split into those two groups and the percentage degree of which they are.

Out of all the P data a benchmark (B) is set to require A (success).

Given no other influence B = A (success) close to 100%.

In DE Soo-Won does three RNG chosen things.

Defiance Bar, which can result in an Expose (E) period (30s)

Tail (Ta) which reduce s damage done to Soo-Won severely while active.

Bite (Bi) which results in 14-sec of invulnerability.

If the formula for DE was = E(30s) + E(30s) + (Ta*3) + (Bi*4) = - 56-sec of DPS) + P = B = A (success) it would be fair. The events that happen could be chosen at random at set times, then everyone would have the same set of conditions.

In reality, DE has the following formula = E(X) + E(X) + (Ta*Y) + (Bi*Z) = - (time)-sec of DPS) + P = B =A (success). 

X, Y, and Z are variables since -

- Expose can happen at random times and be affected by either Ta or Bi in (duration) so instead of a set (30) that becomes (X).

- Tail happens a random number of times and can interfere with Expose, so it goes from a set amount to an (X) variable.

- Bite happens a random number of times as well interefering with both the Expose duration and serves to make it an (X) variable, and adds a -(time) variable in addition.

All these variables means that the B needed to get A (success) varies all the time. As such the event in unfair as each group will have it's own set of conditions that determines what their B = A (success) has to to be.

Planning out activities is a science. The planning of this one seems to be the kind that happens to be scribbled on a napkin by people who were drunk.

Edited April 20, 2022 by Malus.2184

[Nakasz.5471]

I did the meta twice today. As I hadn't done this meta yesterday, I decided to do it in the afternoon before the reset. Then I did the event on reset too.

In the first one, it was a full pug random squad, we didn't have alac/quickness for all groups, there were 6 - I repeat -, 6 spellbreakers in the group (this caught my attention, and that's why I thought the dps would be low and we wouldn't go get). But, all the people followed the commander instructions and did their job, and we broke the 3 bars of CC. We finish the meta with 5 minutes left.

After that I did a run with another commander, in that squad we had quickness/alac/might in every group, and a member of the arenanet devs was on the run to see how easy it was, well I don't remember but I think we're done the goal with 6 minutes left.

I dont remember, but i think it is my 22° meta in a roll with success. And im not doing with hardstuck/raid group. Just doing with groups that know how to read chat. I will save the log for the next ones. Im sure this meta is a problem only if you cant read chat and do CC. 

But i agree about RNG, it really can be annoying. But thats nothing on the final result, What really means is boons, dps and cc (whats new?).

Also, someone have the size of the breakbar/escalation of soo won? Because im sure if 1/2 of squad or less got EMP and use it on CC bar, all squads break her bar.

Edited April 21, 2022 by Nakasz.5471

[Vaen.2605]

After another failed attempt yesterday, I realized it's best to just pretend this map doesn't exist.  Horrible meta, and goes against the casual "play your way" mentality that brought many of us to this game.  Don't get me wrong, I love the fight and have no personal struggles with the difficulty, but it's not for open world.

[Malus.2184]

5 hours ago, Nakasz.5471 said:

I did the meta twice today. As I hadn't done this meta yesterday, I decided to do it in the afternoon before the reset. Then I did the event on reset too.

In the first one, it was a full pug random squad, we didn't have alac/quickness for all groups, there were 6 - I repeat -, 6 spellbreakers in the group (this caught my attention, and that's why I thought the dps would be low and we wouldn't go get). But, all the people followed the commander instructions and did their job, and we broke the 3 bars of CC. We finish the meta with 5 minutes left.

After that I did a run with another commander, in that squad we had quickness/alac/might in every group, and a member of the arenanet devs was on the run to see how easy it was, well I don't remember but I think we're done the goal with 6 minutes left.

I dont remember, but i think it is my 22° meta in a roll with success. And im not doing with hardstuck/raid group. Just doing with groups that know how to read chat. I will save the log for the next ones. Im sure this meta is a problem only if you cant read chat and do CC. 

But i agree about RNG, it really can be annoying. But thats nothing on the final result, What really means is boons, dps and cc (whats new?).

Also, someone have the size of the breakbar/escalation of soo won? Because im sure if 1/2 of squad or less got EMP and use it on CC bar, all squads break her bar.

DE has the following formula = E(X) + E(X) + (Ta*Y) + (Bi*Z) = - (time)-sec of DPS) + P = B =A (success)

Using your example, and since you said nothing about the number of tails or bites I'll set those to zero, I'll set your performance to 7000 DPS without Boons, and for sake of ease I'll put you all as condi DPS, the formula is E(30)+E(30)+E(30) + (7000 (+25%)(+50%) = 12.250 = 12.250 (+90-sec+30% DPS) = 13.444,375 ~13.444,38 benchmark.

I'll now repeat the formula with the same conditions save for some as I experienced on the last run I ever had and with the same P as in the previous calculation. E(5)+E(5) + 7000 (+25%)(+50%) = 12.250 (+10-sec +30% DPS) = 12.381,1081111 ~ 12.381,1 benchmark.

If the benchmark needed for A (success) was 13.000 then the conditions you had, using the exact same performance number, would always result in A (success) and mine would always result in A (failure).

Your expression that" all is fine, just get better,", is objectively wrong. You've had 22 successs in a row? That's still within the statistical given as the understanding of how random events in a statistics played out is that you can have 60 success followed by 40 failures and you would still fall within the statistical given.

Edited April 21, 2022 by Malus.2184

[Nakasz.5471]

We did de with at least 5 untamed on groups

 

Edited April 21, 2022 by Nakasz.5471

[Nakasz.5471]

I think what is missing in this meta is a correction in rng only, maybe. Increasing the time or flexing mechanics will not increase the success rate.

Edited April 21, 2022 by Nakasz.5471
Delete

[Nakasz.5471]

3 hours ago, Malus.2184 said:

DE has the following formula = E(X) + E(X) + (Ta*Y) + (Bi*Z) = - (time)-sec of DPS) + P = B =A (success)

Using your example, and since you said nothing about the number of tails or bites I'll set those to zero, I'll set your performance to 7000 DPS without Boons, and for sake of ease I'll put you all as condi DPS, the formula is E(30)+E(30)+E(30) + (7000 (+25%)(+50%) = 12.250 = 12.250 (+90-sec+30% DPS) = 13.444,375 ~13.444,38 benchmark.

I'll now repeat the formula with the same conditions save for some as I experienced on the last run I ever had and with the same P as in the previous calculation. E(5)+E(5) + 7000 (+25%)(+50%) = 12.250 (+10-sec +30% DPS) = 12.381,1081111 ~ 12.381,1 benchmark.

If the benchmark needed for A (success) was 13.000 then the conditions you had, using the exact same performance number, would always result in A (success) and mine would always result in A (failure).

Your expression that" all is fine, just get better,", is objectively wrong. You've had 22 successs in a row? That's still within the statistical given as the understanding of how random events in a statistics played out is that you can have 60 success followed by 40 failures and you would still fall within the statistical given.

I missed the meta just now on my alt. This is the second time I missed this meta. Our problem was lack of DPS, people didn't know what they were doing in the squad.
By the way, most people don't know what they do in a squad: for example, I've seen commanders asked what the role of a certain player in the squad is and they really don't know what they are (quickness, alac, dps, bs, alac heal, druid , etc).
Also, we failed because the DPS was too low, the people in the group really didn't care

Edited April 21, 2022 by Nakasz.5471
Edition

[Malus.2184]

2 hours ago, Nakasz.5471 said:

I missed the meta just now on my alt. This is the second time I missed this meta. Our problem was lack of DPS, people didn't know what they were doing in the squad.
By the way, most people don't know what they do in a squad: for example, I've seen commanders asked what the role of a certain player in the squad is and they really don't know what they are (quickness, alac, dps, bs, alac heal, druid , etc).
Also, we failed because the DPS was too low, the people in the group really didn't care

"Just missed." What does this mean? No mention of conditions, no mention of the ending percentage. This statement is as useful as the  60% success rate without any context.

[Zoid.2568]

I enjoyed the meta, it's very fun and I like the encounters and the pre-events. Don't nerf. Why people fail so much is because they don't have a team with alac and quickness and healers. The DE meta is literally a open world raid boss and please keep it that way.

[Malus.2184]

10 minutes ago, Zoid.2568 said:

I enjoyed the meta, it's very fun and I like the encounters and the pre-events. Don't nerf. Why people fail so much is because they don't have a team with alac and quickness and healers. The DE meta is literally a open world raid boss and please keep it that way.

Enjoyable. All fine. 

Objective measurements says otherwise.

6 hours ago, Malus.2184 said:

DE has the following formula = E(X) + E(X) + (Ta*Y) + (Bi*Z) = - (time)-sec of DPS) + P = B =A (success)

Using your example, and since you said nothing about the number of tails or bites I'll set those to zero, I'll set your performance to 7000 DPS without Boons, and for sake of ease I'll put you all as condi DPS, the formula is E(30)+E(30)+E(30) + (7000 (+25%)(+50%) = 12.250 = 12.250 (+90-sec+30% DPS) = 13.444,375 ~13.444,38 benchmark.

I'll now repeat the formula with the same conditions save for some as I experienced on the last run I ever had and with the same P as in the previous calculation. E(5)+E(5) + 7000 (+25%)(+50%) = 12.250 (+10-sec +30% DPS) = 12.381,1081111 ~ 12.381,1 benchmark.

If the benchmark needed for A (success) was 13.000 then the conditions you had, using the exact same performance number, would always result in A (success) and mine would always result in A (failure).

Your expression that" all is fine, just get better,", is objectively wrong. You've had 22 successs in a row? That's still within the statistical given as the understanding of how random events in a statistics played out is that you can have 60 success followed by 40 failures and you would still fall within the statistical given.

 

[Zoid.2568]

1 minute ago, Malus.2184 said:

Enjoyable. All fine. 

Objective measurements says otherwise.

 

Measurements says its not fun? I mean most casual players don't do 30k+ dps, that is very true.

 

I don't do 30k but at least 22k+ and it's still a fun meta event. Meta events like Tequatl are less fun, they are very easy now compared to DE meta or some other newer metas we got.

[Malus.2184]

21 minutes ago, Zoid.2568 said:

Measurements says its not fun? I mean most casual players don't do 30k+ dps, that is very true.

 

I don't do 30k but at least 22k+ and it's still a fun meta event. Meta events like Tequatl are less fun, they are very easy now compared to DE meta or some other newer metas we got.

They do? This is the Snowcrow's benchmarks (https://snowcrows.com/benchmarks). These are in golem situations with perfect timing, all boons and no contextual utility.

And the 7k performance was an example taken from what people saying is the minimum individual performance needed to complete the encounter. The benchmark needed is also the average instead of the individual. The formula shows that changing conditions chance the benchmark needed to complete the fight.

Tequatl is also extremely fair to the point of being boring since the events that Tequatl does are always the same in the same order.

Edited April 21, 2022 by Malus.2184

[Silent.6137]

13 hours ago, Nakasz.5471 said:

I dont remember, but i think it is my 22° meta in a roll with success. And im not doing with hardstuck/raid group. Just doing with groups that know how to read chat. I will save the log for the next ones. Im sure this meta is a problem only if you cant read chat and do CC.

Like you, I've had considerable successes. After last night's meta, I've done exactly 50 metas and won 45 of them. Of the losses, 3 of them occurred not long after initial release and 2 after an update a little while back. All the groups that I've done with are from the various listings on LFG.

I do set a few conditions on joining the meta including:

1. Not joining groups that just sprout up on the map late especially if it's formed less than 1/2 hour before meta starts, i.e. after timer starts. Have joined early-formed tags on a few occasions.
2. Look for LFG squads to join at least 45 mins before meta.
3. Look for LFG squads that have experienced commanders first before opting for others.
4. Avoid any LFG listing that says "Meta Taxi", "let's do it", "Chill meta", etc.
5. Asking commanders a few simple questions to gauge his/her experience on the meta. So far, only came across 1 commander who ignore most questions. Should have bolted then as it was 1 of the later losses. Commanders that get very bad win-loss ratio are probably very inexperienced and are just starting commanding squads. And commanders that only get average results over a considerable sizeable meta attempts are precisely just that - very average commanders with average ability.

I know my win-loss ratio is not unique or rare since there are lots of people farming antique summoning stones with very great successes as well. Regardless of the RNG, this is not an extremely difficult meta. Everything that needs to be done to ensure an almost guarantee win has been discussed and listed ad nauseum on this and other threads. So, it's always mind-boggling to me when someone claims to have done 20, 30 or more without a win. Or just have a handful of wins. The amount of time wasted on those losses can be avoided to a certain extent by exercizing a little more care in choosing whether to join the meta/group or not.

For those still having losses after losses, there's really nothing else to say that haven't been said before.

Edited April 21, 2022 by Silent.6137

[Kuya.6495]

On 4/16/2022 at 11:12 AM, Xelqypla.6817 said:

If they want to boost Meta completion, they need to include Meta mechanics into the basic Dragons End map. You want CC in the Meta? Require it in the rest of the map. You want DPS target swapping between two ends of a football field? Require it on the basic events. Wisp thing (whatever it is)? Put it in somewhere else as well.

 

When the Meta pops, even the average player will have the abilities they need already on their skill bars and have basic training on the mechanics.

This is a really good suggestion and I hope the devs see this.

 

Also I noticed a pattern in this thread after reading all the pages: comments that say the meta is broken or that "raid content" has no business in open world get mostly likes/thanks reacts.  Meanwhile comments that say the meta can be cleared with good boon distribution and good commanding get mostly confused reacts. 

[Silent.6137]

46 minutes ago, Kuya.6495 said:

Also I noticed a pattern in this thread after reading all the pages: comments that say the meta is broken or that "raid content" has no business in open world get mostly likes/thanks reacts.  Meanwhile comments that say the meta can be cleared with good boon distribution and good commanding get mostly confused reacts. 

Is it possible the same people who are complaining are boosting each others? Threads like this attracts people who are experiencing the same situations. People happy with whatever the issues are do not generally frequent forum to search for and read about other's miseries.

As for me, I couldn't be bothered with using it even if I totally agree with what the person has to say.

[Dante.1508]

If customers lose over and over they do not continue trying to do it.. They feel defeated and either log out or move on to easier content.

The percentage of people that try over and over on hours long seemingly unwinnable metas are very small. This is case on everything not just this meta.. Customers beaten down over and over are not likely to continue attempting it.

[ProtoGunner.4953]

Is this still a topic? I don't know I casually went to this map landing on a commanded thingy or joined via LFG tool and my personal success rate is maybe 7/10 serious attempts. Ever was, since release (though didn't do it into one week in I think). Even more so these days. But since about 1-2 weeks doing WvW so I don't know what changed but it seemed to me that most map resets and serious attempts have a success rate of nearly 100%. I am on European servers.

[Astralporing.1957]

1 hour ago, ProtoGunner.4953 said:

Is this still a topic?

Yes. Nothing much has changed since then. Well, probably success rates went up a bit, because less and less people are running it.

[Boh.4568]

I see a lot of regular groups now, if you play in the evening and you check LFG at specific times (about 1:10hrs before the escort premeta) you see a handful of commanders welcoming everyone and only asking to follow chat commands. Even the ones checking for quick/alac usually pick 10+10 members from the 50 man pool, and the other 30 can be whatever. I can assure you never get the "play alac or kick" response you would receive in a raid LFG.

I do DE almost daily at the same cycle and in the last ~10 attempts we only failed once because of a bad call to ignore the tail because the dragon was under 5%, only for us to waste the last 3 minutes not being able to DPS that 5% because the tail was absorbing too much damage.

[NotTooFoolish.7412]

1 hour ago, Astralporing.1957 said:

Yes. Nothing much has changed since then. Well, probably success rates went up a bit, because less and less people are running it.

The question is, are people checking if the rng is bad after each change Anet makes?
E.g. they did a change on Tuesday, so that the bite isn't that broken. Soo Wan zooming around like crazy wasn't entirely intended behaviour.

How is it now? I didn't have the time to visit the lizard this week, curious.

[Malus.2184]

15 hours ago, Silent.6137 said:

Like you, I've had considerable successes. After last night's meta, I've done exactly 50 metas and won 45 of them. Of the losses, 3 of them occurred not long after initial release and 2 after an update a little while back. All the groups that I've done with are from the various listings on LFG.

 

You realise that makes your personal statistics an outlier from the general statistics given? You have to many instances of the event that it would be an extreme outlier that you had a success rate of 90%. It's a clear indication that the event is self selecting in bias and that only people who think they can do it are the only ones who'll do it.

  

6 hours ago, Silent.6137 said:

Is it possible the same people who are complaining are boosting each others? Threads like this attracts people who are experiencing the same situations. People happy with whatever the issues are do not generally frequent forum to search for and read about other's miseries.

As for me, I couldn't be bothered with using it even if I totally agree with what the person has to say.

Translation: All is fine for me, thus the activity is fine as well.

Edited April 22, 2022 by Malus.2184

[kharmin.7683]

1 hour ago, Astralporing.1957 said:

Yes. Nothing much has changed since then. Well, probably success rates went up a bit, because less and less people are running it.

I hope that people are still running it by the time I get there!

[Malus.2184]

57 minutes ago, kharmin.7683 said:

I hope that people are still running it by the time I get there!

Some undoubtedly will. However, at that point it'll most likely be groups of self-selecting indivduals with a high personal benchmark. I would suggest that you try integrating you in a community like Hardstuck now as I think that in the future there'll be few active LFGs for it.