Do something about MC supply

[Erich.1783]

One thing that I have not seen mentioned in all of this, but I will admit I could have missed it, is the fact that the ease of making gold continues to increase.  Every expansion seems to add another Meta for 2 gold a day.  All of those add up, so there is just more gold in the economy.  If you put more currency, gold, into circulation the value of it decrease.  If the rarity of the item you are interested in buying stays the same, that is to say its effective "value" stays the same, as the value of the currency, gold, decreases, the cost will increase.  It would be interesting to see how much gold is in the economy at various times, and how prices react to that.

[Astralporing.1957]

7 hours ago, Erich.1783 said:

One thing that I have not seen mentioned in all of this, but I will admit I could have missed it, is the fact that the ease of making gold continues to increase.  Every expansion seems to add another Meta for 2 gold a day.  All of those add up, so there is just more gold in the economy.  If you put more currency, gold, into circulation the value of it decrease.  If the rarity of the item you are interested in buying stays the same, that is to say its effective "value" stays the same, as the value of the currency, gold, decreases, the cost will increase.  It would be interesting to see how much gold is in the economy at various times, and how prices react to that.

Let's just say that until SotO (and Vault) things were mostly stable. There were some individual price fluctuations, but they usually sort of evened themselves out. The gold infux from vault seems to have a much higher impact than anything before.

[Lucy.3728]

3 hours ago, Astralporing.1957 said:

The gold infux from vault seems to have a much higher impact than anything before.

But the items that are more expensive now like t6 mats, ecto, mc had longer phases before, in gw2 history,  of that value. Even higher peaks.

Edited January 21 by Lucy.3728

[Tiviana.2650]

what can i get for 600 mc?

[bq pd.2148]

for another source of MC, i would suggest an option to trade Chunk of Ancient Ambergris 1:1 into mystic coins without timegates.
because ambergris comes from fishing at a somewhat predictable rate, but lacks spending options beyond gen3 legendaries, while MC have a broader use but no good way to farm them, except for buying as many accounts as one can farm AA per season.

[Lan Deathrider.5910]

On 1/16/2024 at 11:18 AM, mythix.2786 said:

Don’t be naive. People with multiple accounts already capped on everything valuable this season on the vault.

 

 

Can confirm. Although I still have some Bags of Laurels on each account to claim...🤔

[DanAlcedo.3281]

On 1/17/2024 at 12:48 PM, Kranlor Greyhelm.8417 said:

You are talking about a different thing. There are two distinct issues here; how many MCs are available and whether there is enough for the demand, and when those MCs are made available from the various sources.

You are talking about fixing the first issue. I was talking about fixing the second, where ALL of the MCs from the WV are taken at pretty much the same time. Leading to a 3 month period where that source effectively doesn't exist. Both are causing the spike in the price of MCs.

If they smooth out the availability of MCs from the WV, then they could look at how demand is, and whether they need to increase the availability either through the WV or from other sources.

I bet my left butt cheek that there are enough sources. It's just people are not selling them. 

And why would they? Especially now, so short before the Legy armor and Relic gets released? 

Also, raw gold is easier to get then ever. Why sell your precious Mc's for it? 

[Gotejjeken.1267]

On 1/21/2024 at 5:07 AM, Astralporing.1957 said:

Let's just say that until SotO (and Vault) things were mostly stable. There were some individual price fluctuations, but they usually sort of evened themselves out. The gold infux from vault seems to have a much higher impact than anything before.

Yeah, raw gold in the vault was always a terrible idea. 

The economist on staff must have left, as no one over there seems to have taken Econ 101 where they explain what happens if you give everyone a million dollars (or euros, or the currencies that aren't already at a million for one day's wage).   

Mystic coins are just the most tedious of the expensive materials to get.  Even stuff like A.S.S has a weekly vendor, and t6 mats can be laurel'd, converted, etc. etc. 

Coins, outside the wizard vault are mostly from random chance chests, part of low reward grind like WvW, and/or ATs which is a very low population method.  I'm not sure how it would hurt to add additional sources here...

[jozze.9532]

On 1/16/2024 at 5:07 PM, Randulf.7614 said:

It's returning to its old levels. Realistically even if Anet were to decide to add new sources, it would be down the line and you could earn enough gold to buy the stack long before. The lower value was causing hoarding, so the higher price is prob what ANet wanted

Use gold from AA, gain gold from selling extra mats. Do regular ley line event. Plenty of ways to supplement MC supply rather than waiting on a solution which may never happen.

Yep, i have not sold any stacks since the huge price drop. Now that the price rises back to old levels again, it makes sense to sell again.

With the big influx of gold from the WV people should be able to easily compensate for rising prices.

[Astralporing.1957]

12 minutes ago, jozze.9532 said:

With the big influx of gold from the WV people should be able to easily compensate for rising prices.

We call that inflation. And funny thing with inflation - it invariably almost compensates for the price increases, but after a while you notice that each cycle of the spiral leaves you just slightly behind compared to where you were before (or way more than slightly behind, in worst cases). In the end, when inflation starts, you are certain to lose out in the long run.

[Kranlor Greyhelm.8417]

If the cause of the MC price increase was just gold inflation from the WV, surely it would be impacting more than just MCs? Surely other legendary resources, like kitten, ambergis and so on, would also be going up?

Hell, if too much gold was the cause, surely EVERYTHING would be going up as well, at much the same rate?

It isn't, of course. Which punctures the whole notion that the cause of the MC price increase is just "too much gold".

 

[Cuks.8241]

3 hours ago, Kranlor Greyhelm.8417 said:

If the cause of the MC price increase was just gold inflation from the WV, surely it would be impacting more than just MCs? Surely other legendary resources, like kitten, ambergis and so on, would also be going up?

Hell, if too much gold was the cause, surely EVERYTHING would be going up as well, at much the same rate?

It isn't, of course. Which punctures the whole notion that the cause of the MC price increase is just "too much gold".

 

T6, t3, t4 trophies which are universal lege mat went up for like 50% (i checked blood and dust). I dont know if soto introduced any sinks for them, didnt craft anything soto related.

I wouldnt compare to Eod specific mats because those were still in decline in price after initial boom and variants. And they are related only to one generation of weapons. Allthough ambergris from the top of my head did go up a little lately (cca 10%). But thats maybe just because less players fish now.

[Blood.7254]

On 1/17/2024 at 12:05 PM, Danikat.8537 said:

Is it possible that part of the change is that Anet have successfully discouraged players farming login rewards on dozens of alt accounts? (Something they were asked to do repeatedly for years.) I know the focus of that complaint was that they'd drive down the price of materials from the crafting bags and laurels, but it would have had a similar impact on Mystic Coins.

That's a genuine question BTW, I don't know. The Wizard's Vault has actually got me back to playing my second account more, but I've only got the one (two technically, but I almost never use the free one) and it was never just for farming. I can imagine if someone had 10+ accounts they just logged into to collect the reward and nothing else the idea of doing dailies or weeklies on all of them is not going to be appealing.

But I think what we're seeing is actually much more long-term trends. If you look at the full price history of Mystic Coins it was going up steadily from about November 2014 until about June 2021 when it dropped, then it started rising again in about October 2021. Even if you look at just the recent history in more detail it doesn't fit with the WV, or SotO being the only cause:

This is showing the TP buy and sell prices and the supply and demand from January 2023 until January 2024. The Wizard's Vault was announced on the 15th August 2023 and launched on the 22nd with the rest of SotO. The first WV season ran for 77 days, until 31st October, the second season began immediately after.

There's a slight jump in price from the 14th - 18th August (when the WV was announced), but only going from 1.41g - 1.55g, then the price drops shortly after SotO is released, rising equally sharply in late September/early October. That will be due to the WV, specifically specifically speculators buying up coins when it's announced then either dumping them when it was released and the actual supply and cost was known or other players priositising using AA for Coins and selling them for gold. That's followed by an equally sharp recovery in late September/early October.

But what I find interesting is there's no accompanying change in supply or demand around the same time. The supply increased slightly during that initial price jump, from just over 74,000 - just over 89,000 (Before anyone freaks about about 'maximum legendaries it's possible to make' please remember 'supply' means the number currently for sale on the TP, not the total number of coins in the game.) then dropped back around the 20th September but is relatively consistent and demand likewise barely changed, so it looks like the price change there is all due to speculation.

There is however a very big jump in demand in early March 2023, but I'm not sure why. That's around the time What Lies Beneath came out, but I don't know of anything in that episode which would increase demand for Mystic Coins (if anyone does know please tell me).

The other reason I think it's speculation rather than actual supply or demand issues is the pattern isn't repeated in early November when the Wizard's Vault refreshed. There's no dip in price (or increase in supply) when 'everyone' trades AA for Mystic Coins and sells them and no spike afterwards when that supply dries up until the next refresh. I think that was a one-off caused by the unfamiliarily of the new system, not actual changes in supply (or demand).

More importantly looking at the price of Mystic Coins across the whole of the game's life that was a tiny, tiny, blip that barely even registers:

 

The price was rising relatively steadily from about November 2014, dropped significantly in mid 2021 but was rising again before the WV or SotO was even announced. I think what's more likely than this all being due to the WV is something happened back in 2021 which caused the price to drop (in spite of rising demand) but then it started to recover and has now returned to it's previous levels.

I'm not sure what caused that though. My best guess is EoD legendaries not requiring as many Mystic Coins, followed by speculation that SotO ones (specifically the new armour) will do, but I don't know. Especially since the demand actually increased when the price was dropping and increased again when it started going up.

Great job with the breakdown. I'll add some of my thoughts.

Yes, mystic coin supply hasn't changed that much on TP lately. Demand definitely has. Game did not compensate for this change in any way whatsoever so the price is high. But when did this all start, also when did the latest price growth start? We all want to know what drove this increase in demand. Did it it begin during the EOD days? February 28th 2023 is when "What Lies Beneath" was released and it marked a huge spike in MC demand. Let's have a quick look back at the complete history of MCs on the TP and try to decipher what drives the market.

 

• EARLY GAME AND FIRST BIG SPIKE AROUND 2015/2016 HEART OF THORNS LAUNCH

Mystic coins were a cheap material pre Heart of Thorns Expansion. In fact bar two price spikes at 15 silver and 10 silver, mystic coin retained it's price at around 1,5 silver or 2 silver for the most part. Other than gen 1 legendaries, the mystic coins were not really being sunk into anything except some exotic weapons with nice skins (feel free to correct me I did not play from launch). With the release of HoT in November 2015 we got our elite spec weapon collections that used Mystic Weapons as their base (30 MCs each), first gen2 legendary weapons (each needing 500 MCs, in contrast gen 1 needed only 123 MCs) and we could start our Envoy armor journey in the raids (just the Spirit Vale at the time). From there, mystic coins went from cca 10 silver to 75 silver in a span of 7 months. A massive 7.5x growth in price by June 2016. We went from 200,000 supply & 55,000 demand to 26,000 supply & 102,000 demand. 77% drop in supply, 200% jump in demand and 750% jump in price.

• 2016 AND 2017 LWS3 UP TO PATH OF FIRE LAUNCH

With gen 2 legendaries basically coming out every 2 months and the Envoy armor on the horizon the demand for mystic coins was rapidly rising. In May 2017 legendary Envoy armor (300 MCs per weight class) is finally released with the LWS3 Episode 5 Flashpoint. In the following months we see a steady rise in MC price as players finish farming their Legendary Insights, our first legendary trinket Aurora (500 MCs) is also released in July 2017 with One Path Ends, and by Path of Fire Launch in September 2017 MCs are now as follows: 18,500 supply, 130,000 demand, 1.5g per MC. To compare this to where we started, that's a 90% drop in supply, 236% jump in demand and 1500% jump in price.

• LATE 2017, 2018, 2019. PATH OF FIRE LAUNCH AND LWS4

With the release of Path of Fire, we see a sudden drop in Mystic coin prices. No new legendaries and a ton of new content keeping players involved with the story and Elona has made people postpone their legendary pursuits. In just a month since PoF launch we have MCs drop to 90 silver on the TP.  Supply is at 40,000 and demand is at 105,000. That's to be expected, with everyone playing the expansion that didn't release any new legendaries. But, players are now finished with their first playthroughs and are going back to their legendary crafting goals. Maybe they're finishing their Envoy armors, leftover Gen 2 weapons, or Aurora. MC price is very quickly continuing to creep back up, and continues to grow in the following months. New legendary weapons are being released every few months (Claw of Khan Ur, Verdarach, Xiuquatl, Pharus). February 2019 rolls in and we get slapped with the massive layoffs at Arenanet. 143 people lose their jobs and game's playerbase is in a state of panic. Next few months we get no content, just balance patches and world polish. And then we hit a minor MC spike again due to May patch. On May 14th Exordium is released followed by Vision (our 2nd lege trinket) on May 28th 2019. Mystic Coins go from 49,500 supply, 144,000 demand and 1.29g price to 19,900 supply, 145,000 demand and 1.63g price by the end of July. Not a huges pike but still noticeable. The price starts dropping back down after that. At this pooint in time less people are playing regularly due to uncertainty surrounding the game, and those that do play hesitate to commit to long term goals. This also means the studio is having it's worst financial year since GW2 launch, according to NCSoft's financial reports. Even with the release of our third lege trinket (coalescence) in June 2019, and legendary runes and sigils in July 2019, mystic coin prices are dropping.
 

• 2019 CONTINUED INTO EARLY 2021, ICEBROOD SAGA

We are now in September 2019 and Icebrood Saga starts. Playerbase is still shook, and even if people are playing they are not spending the same amounts of money on the gemstore and are not really committing to long term goals. Theose that are still around are mostly waiting to see what's going to happen with the game. This also reflects onto quarterly earnings. There are no new legendaries in the game. In February 2020, we're now at 45,000 supply, 115,000 demand and 1.25g per MC. First few episodes of IBS are looking really good and promising so some players are coming back. Our 4th and 5th legendary trinkets are released on March 17th 2020 - Conflux and Transcendence. Right around this time we are going to witness the biggest spike in the history of Mystic Coins, and it will be brought on by multiple factors. As mentioned two new trinkets are added, this allows people to finish their full legendary trinket collection and probably motivates them further to get the sense of completion. But the bigger impact is sensed due to the long awaited new expansion announcement. End of Dragons is finally announced and players are coming back to the game, long term goals that have been put aside are reignited again and people start feeling some passion towards this game again. They finally feel the game is sticking around and it's worth investing into it. Little did we know DRMs are coming lol. Anyway, right around this time we start seeing some anomalous behaviour on the TP. Enter TP barons and item dupers. Cheap GW2 keys (possibly stolen) were massively acquired by some guilds/players and this started off the abuse of the daily log-in system and the 20 MCs you could get from them by simply logging in. Along with item/ and or gold duping this allowed for some guilds to manipulate the MC prices by buying up a ton of Mystic Coins from the market and then nuking the tradepost with 50,000 sell offers at super high prices. After they initially drained the market of the supply in April 2020 we went from 26,000 supply, 147,000 demand and 1.58g per MC to 78,200 supply, 378,000 demand and 4.11g per MC overnight. They hit the game at the right time as enthusiasm just started coming back, and players had 2 new trinkets to craft at the time as well, legendary armory was announced. The price then rapidly dropped to 1.6g per MC and TP barons probably realized they should play it a bit smarter so the prices started creeping steadily back up until May of 2021. Cassiano was banned after accidentally showing his guild bank on his stream. Along with his 2 guildies they were just a few dupers and TP barons, but it was enough to send shock-waves through the market. This was May 2021. MC supply was 27,700, demand broke the staggering 1,000,000 and the MC price crept up to 2.6g per MC. I am sure a lot of the dupers were now being extra careful as Anet was aware of the issue, and most of them were involved into real money trade anyway. So they didn't want to mess up their income foolishly. Makes you wonder, even with all the supposed returning players and all the "renewed enthusiasm" for the game, how come the financial reports show almost no growth when compared to the previous three quarters? And yet the demand for mystic coins has skyrocketed, probably due to Legendary Armory release in July. In little over a year supply went down by 40%, demand went up by 870%, and prices went up by 208%. How long were these guys influencing the market anyway, how long did they fill it with sell orders? Are they still doing it? For the first time the demand of mystic coins was now rising to unheard of levels.

• END OF DRAGONS & SECRETS OF THE OBSCURE 2022-2023

My theory is that right around this time a lot of players realized having alt accounts is the best "gold per hour" system in the game (due to coverage of the whole TP baron debacle). I think loads of players started buying up cheap accounts just for daily login system. This along with the new expansion on the horizon skewed the "active player reports" a bit. In 2022 Arenanet exec (can't remember which one) said the game more than doubled their playerbase since 2019. How much of this is "organic" growth and how much of those are players with a metric ton of alt accounts is hard to tell. Especially since that exec said they consider a player "active" if they log in daily into a map with their character. However, financial reports do show an increase in earnings in 2021 and definitely in 2022. End of Dragons released on 28th February 2022. While End of Dragons did not have the financial spike that PoF had, it held the increased income longer. Both expacs come to around €80 mil income in 5 months around launch. With EoD we had a HUGE dump of new legendaries. Not only 16 new weapons, but all of them in 7 variants. But for the first time in Guild Wars' 2 history, despite the insane amount of new legendaries being dumped all at the same time into the game, the cost of mystic coins started going down... Perhaps because new legendaries only needed 123 MCs instead of 500? February 2022 on EoD launch we had 63,000 supply, 12,950,000 demand but the cost of MC was 1.8g. And it went down, and down, until it hit it's lowest point since June 2016. In September 2022, we had 131,000 in supply, 2,848,000 demand and MCs were selling for a mere 71 silver. Lower demand for sure as the insane 12 mil demand was due to new legendary weapons in February. It stabilized around here for a while, and then in February/March 2023 demand started going up again, and it shot up by about 7,000,000. Why? Well because Secrets of the Obscure was announced. The current spike that we're experiencing is crossed over with the one happening since March 2023. Is it only due to the Wizard's Vault or is WV only a little blip in the overall picture? Let's continue. August 2023 SOTO is released, along with the Wizard's Vault. At launch we had 76,500 in supply, 9,770,000 in demand and MCs were 1.6g on the TP. Due to Wizard's Vault, people who are not into legendary crafting quickly dump 37,000 MCs onto the market and crash the price to 1.2g per MC. This drop is however temporary as demand is still super high. People are holding onto MCs or have buy orders due to the legendary relic and the three weight-classes of the new legendary armor that are yet to be released. Even with the next Wizard's Vault reset you can't see almost any meaningful drops on the TP anymore. After that WV reset the price increase continues at a steeper angle. We are waiting for the big Lege dump to bring the price down. At the moment we are looking at 43,000 supply, 10,100,000 demand and 2.33g per MC. We are not that far off to where we were just before EoD launch and the last big lege dump. The differences here that I can spot is that prior to the End of Dragons launch prices were going down while demand kept going up and it happened in a span of 2 months pretty much. Legendary weapons were revealed in December 2021, and EoD launched in February 2022. The massive demand spike only happened just prior to the EoD launch. This time around, we knew about the armour and the relic a long time in advance, and the market is stalled because of it. However, we have to factor in the introduction of legendary starter kits here as well. Plenty of 1st time legendary users around now using up mystic coins, or buying them.

In short, I think the current situation is definitely going to calm down once the legendary armor gets released. Perhaps after the February patch as well to some degree after the relic gets released. It's only then that we'll be able to truly see the effect of WV and how much MCs the TP barons were pumping onto the market via alt accounts. This however won't account for the item dupers. And there is no doubt in my mind they're still around and Anet has no way of finding them.

I'll go and shut up now. Hope someone finds this useful or interesting at least.

[Ashen.2907]

4 hours ago, Blood.7254 said:

I think the current situation is definitely going to calm down once the legendary armor gets released. Perhaps after the February patch as well to some degree after the relic gets released. It's only then that we'll be able to truly see the effect of WV and how much MCs the TP barons were pumping onto the market via alt accounts. This however won't account for the item dupers. And there is no doubt in my mind they're still around and Anet has no way of finding them

Agreed.

[Das Boot.9627]

HAHAAHHAHHAAHAHAH I LOVE IT, i told you, everyone talked kitten 7 months ago, and now 2.3g MC, hhahahah this is priceless, UP TO 5g EACH

[Rauderi.8706]

We need to have more means to vent (or prevent) all this extra gold coming from the Vault. This goes beyond Mystic Coins.

6AA for 1 gold, 30AA for 1 gold after the cap. Let's apply that to Coins and Clovers to take a lot of the pressure off. 

9AA for 1 Coin, 45AA for 1 Coin after the cap. The market will take care of the rest and keep prices stable.

60AA for a Clover, 300AA for a Clover after the cap. Hefty enough cost that it's not considered an auto-buy (effectively 10g to get one), but it also takes the pressure off demand and helps burn some of the very plentiful points from Vault achievements. 

8AA for a Heavy Crafting Bag, 40AA after the cap. A bit of RNG risk-reward there, could be worth more than 1g.

These kinds of post-cap cost bumps are an easy, market-flexible solution that give players a broader choice in rewards that isn't liquid gold. 

Also, refactor some costs, like Obsidian Shards. 10AA each, 50AA post-cap. It's a noob trap and an unfair option with its original cost. Similarly, Large Crafting Bag, 8AA up to a limit, 40AA post-cap. 

Also also, please organize the Vault offerings! 

[evilcat.6817]

Wirh wizard vault rewards, there should be a scaling by lenght of season. So if season is 16weeks there should be higher limit than 12 week season. Simple.

[Astralporing.1957]

14 hours ago, Blood.7254 said:

Yes, mystic coin supply hasn't changed that much on TP lately.

You say that, and then you go on with market analysis that clearly mentions massive changes in supply (i.e. going from ~130k at september 2022 to ~76k at SotO launch, and then to ~43k recently).

Edited January 25 by Astralporing.1957

[Blood.7254]

5 minutes ago, Astralporing.1957 said:

You say that, and then you go on with market analysis that clearly mentions massive changes in supply (i.e. going from ~130k at EoD launch to ~76k at SotO launch, and then to ~43k recently).

"Yes, mystic coin supply hasn't changed that much on TP lately. Demand definitely has. "

This wasn't me talking about the expac launches. But the last growth spurt of MC prices. Eod launch and Soto launch are kind of comparable.

"February 2022 on EoD launch we had 63,000 supply, 12,950,000 demand but the cost of MC was 1.8g"

"August 2023 SOTO is released, along with the Wizard's Vault. At launch we had 76,500 in supply, 9,770,000 in demand and MCs were 1.6g on the TP. "

"February/March 2023 demand started going up again, and it shot up by about 7,000,000. Why? Well because Secrets of the Obscure was announced. "

Even if supply dropped by half, the difference doesn't come anywhere near the increase in demand.

[Astralporing.1957]

40 minutes ago, Blood.7254 said:

"Yes, mystic coin supply hasn't changed that much on TP lately. Demand definitely has. "

This wasn't me talking about the expac launches. But the last growth spurt of MC prices. Eod launch and Soto launch are kind of comparable.

"February 2022 on EoD launch we had 63,000 supply, 12,950,000 demand but the cost of MC was 1.8g"

"August 2023 SOTO is released, along with the Wizard's Vault. At launch we had 76,500 in supply, 9,770,000 in demand and MCs were 1.6g on the TP. "

"February/March 2023 demand started going up again, and it shot up by about 7,000,000. Why? Well because Secrets of the Obscure was announced. "

Even if supply dropped by half, the difference doesn't come anywhere near the increase in demand.

fair enough, although if we look at the actual trades they do not always follow the changes to supply and demand. A lot of the demand was also fake-generated (i.e. we know that when it jumped from around 2 mil to ~10 mil around EoD launch, Cassano alone was responsible for more than 2 mil of those orders)

Edit: i went and looked, and it is far worse than i suspected. At ~10.2 mil demand currently, only ~65k are made at above 1 gold price... but we have 7.5 mil at 3 copper (and another 2.5 mil at 2 copper). Meaning almost all of those buy order should not be treated seriously... and those massive jumps up and down in demand seem extremely suspicious as well (although cannot check that, because there's no past history of orders with their values traced on per-case basis i can see anywhere - we can easily see only the situation as it is today)

There's also quite a number of equally ridiculous sell orders, btw. That's exactly why actual trades made (can be seen on gw2btlc) offer a far better picture.

Edited January 25 by Astralporing.1957

[Blood.7254]

1 hour ago, Astralporing.1957 said:

fair enough, although if we look at the actual trades they do not always follow the changes to supply and demand. A lot of the demand was also fake-generated (i.e. we know that when it jumped from around 2 mil to ~10 mil around EoD launch, Cassano alone was responsible for more than 2 mil of those orders)

Edit: i went and looked, and it is far worse than i suspected. At ~10.2 mil demand currently, only ~65k are made at above 1 gold price... but we have 7.5 mil at 3 copper (and another 2.5 mil at 2 copper). Meaning almost all of those buy order should not be treated seriously... and those massive jumps up and down in demand seem extremely suspicious as well (although cannot check that, because there's no past history of orders with their values traced on per-case basis i can see anywhere - we can easily see only the situation as it is today)

There's also quite a number of equally ridiculous sell orders, btw. That's exactly why actual trades made (can be seen on gw2btlc) offer a far better picture.

That's a brilliant piece of information. I did not know that. So a lot of those millions in demand are pretty much fake somehow... I'll have a look at this on the  Bltc website when I get home.

[Danikat.8537]

Does anyone have any thoughts on what's been happening to the Mystic Coin price over the past 2 weeks? It was rising steadily until the 19th January, then it jumped by almost 20 silver (not a big change overall, but noticeable), then on then 25th the supply jumped and the price started dropping.

If the current price is due to the Wizard's Vault none of that should have happened, because nothing has changed. According to the accepted logic in this topic 'everyone' got Mystic Coins early on in the current cycle and is now trading all the AA for gold while no new Mystic Coins are entering the market (at least not from the WV), so the price should be steadily rising as it was before, with a drop not due until about 30 days time when the WV refreshes.

I'm very sceptical that pattern is as consistent as some people seem to think. Just using myself as an example I got the cheap gold before getting mystic coins from the vault, and I'm currently using AA to get the weapon skins because I'm down to my 'don't want it, but might as well' list. But then I also haven't bought or sold any mystic coins.

But since the general consensus seems to be that the WV is the primary (or only) cause of the rise in Mystic Coin prices I'd love to know what's causing the price to drop over the last few days.

[Shuzuru.3651]

58 minutes ago, Danikat.8537 said:

Does anyone have any thoughts on what's been happening to the Mystic Coin price over the past 2 weeks? It was rising steadily until the 19th January, then it jumped by almost 20 silver (not a big change overall, but noticeable), then on then 25th the supply jumped and the price started dropping.

If the current price is due to the Wizard's Vault none of that should have happened, because nothing has changed. According to the accepted logic in this topic 'everyone' got Mystic Coins early on in the current cycle and is now trading all the AA for gold while no new Mystic Coins are entering the market (at least not from the WV), so the price should be steadily rising as it was before, with a drop not due until about 30 days time when the WV refreshes.

I'm very sceptical that pattern is as consistent as some people seem to think. Just using myself as an example I got the cheap gold before getting mystic coins from the vault, and I'm currently using AA to get the weapon skins because I'm down to my 'don't want it, but might as well' list. But then I also haven't bought or sold any mystic coins.

But since the general consensus seems to be that the WV is the primary (or only) cause of the rise in Mystic Coin prices I'd love to know what's causing the price to drop over the last few days.

Maybe some people were hoarding for legendary relic, so sold them since they may not longer need them.

That's the only explaination i see

[uberduber.7368]

6 hours ago, Danikat.8537 said:

Does anyone have any thoughts on what's been happening to the Mystic Coin price over the past 2 weeks? It was rising steadily until the 19th January, then it jumped by almost 20 silver (not a big change overall, but noticeable), then on then 25th the supply jumped and the price started dropping.

Mystic Coin prices have increased steadily for the most part, since SOTO features were first revealed. As for the past few weeks, it may have been a little bumpier, but largely followed that same trend.

I expect this can be explained in part due to login reward changes, including the introduction of the Wizard's Vault (don't forget the Legendary Starter Kits), and the soon to be introduced Open World Legendary Armor (and Legendary Relic). Focusing in on the past few weeks for a second. Recent 'Special Events' like the WvW Restructuring Beta, WvW Rush, and PvP Rush may spurred more interest in WvW/PvP Legendaries.

As for this past day, I expect the recent drop has a lot to do with the latest announcement regarding Legendary Relics. Lots of people are suddenly crafting their first Legendary Rune, some of that's likely funded through the sale of Mystic Coins.

[Astralporing.1957]

Also, people deciding to craft runes instead of some other legendary might be spending their gold more on other stuff than MCs. Rune is only 20 clovers, and that small amount is likely to be already covered by prior acquisition from vault.