Why are Black Lion Skin prices so static on the TP?

[Omnicron.2467]

Hi Everyone

So from what I remember it used to be a good way to make money if you were patient was to flip items available for Black Lion Claim tickets. I had three tickets so I thought I would make extra gold since I am not paying for the skins with gold.

So I waited until a good set of skins came up, and on the 25th of June the Bioluminescent weapon skins became available. I looked at the ones I thought were beautiful and also used GW2Spidy to see what was in demand and got three skins which I posted for 100g on the TP.

The Bioluminescent weapon skins now cost 3 tickets, and yet they are still the same price on the TP as the day they were released, and the same price as the new (and very beautiful) Seven Reaper Skins.

I can easily take my skins off the tp and just repost them, I wont really lose much gold since I did not spend gold on them, but I take it the idea of flipping them using gold is no longer a method for making money? Why has the price of Bioluminescent weapon skins not gone up at all? Any thoughts?

[ugrakarma.9416]

if the demand is low the prices dont up, even if the base cost(now 3 tickets) had goes up. Seven Reapers for example started with 50g, that the average price of new weapons, but probably sell a lot more, Seven Reapers will be expensive in a faster rate.

[AgentMoore.9453]

@"ugrakarma.9416" said:if the demand is low the prices dont up

This. Lots of oogly skins in the sets lately. I'd like to see more things like the Privateer and Improvised set.

[TheGrimm.5624]

Black Lion skins used to be a good source of income until Anet started just recycling the skins thru the chests themselves and they reduced the value of the tickets even further with adding the 7 full tickets to completing the collection. Now to turn a profit you need to sit on them for a few years and try and sell before they re-release them again. That's one of the reasons I have recommended people not try and gamble on a skin in the chest but just buy it from the TP since ANet ends up flooding the supply every x amounts of chest changes. Wait for the flood and the price will drop. Players watching the TP can now just outright buy full sets at low prices to amase more full tickets from the collections. Going that route you can make sure you have more tickets for whenever a new piece comes out you like. The other thing that killed the skin sales were the Guaranteed Wardrobe Unlocks. Since you can get Black Lion skins from these as well it means a random RNG could net you that 100 gold skin. So in the end it comes down to supply versus demand and right now mostly the supply side has more sources than there is demand. To correct the balance they would need to stop adding sets to the chests as direct random rolls and remove them from the wardrobe unlocks and let it be just off the tickets/scraps and collections. But I don't see that happening and the current setup aids the majority of players who aren't interested in the TP game but are interested in Fashion Wars 2.

[Teratus.2859]

I guess most people if they really want a skin like that would rather spend 3 tickets on it than spend that kind of gold on them..

I've done this myself in the past as well.

[Ensign.2189]

New black lion skins inevitably return as uncommon direct drops from black lion chests. Black Lion Claim Tickets are also abundant enough that healthy inventories build up during their initial release, dampening any price rise.

Back in the day the prices on skins appreciated as you got further from release as the supply dried up, and speculators accelerated this process expecting long run returns. However now the supply tends to persist longer, and as you get further from release the risk of the skins being reintroduced as uncommon drops increases. So the speculators stay away from a risky asset and the price actually starts to crash once you get a few release cycles removed.

[Danikat.8537]

I've noticed the same thing. I'm not entirely sure why it changed but I suspect it's at least partially because they started cycling sets more, both for tickets and as direct drops from chests. It used to be that a weapon set was available for a few months then it was removed and no one knew when, or if, it would come back and the supply would keep dropping so if you wanted one you paid what was asked on the TP and counted yourself lucky to get it at all. Now if you want one but it's too expensive or the price is going up you can pretty confidently wait for it to be available again, knowing the price will drop when that happens.

Choice might be another factor. It used to be that you had in-game skins which were mostly pretty basic, legendaries and then black lion skins were the main source of ones in-between with some effects but not as much as legendaries, and there were only a few sets of those. Now there's dozens of black lion sets and over 200 skins total for each weapon, which probably means there's far less demand for each individual skin. I know there's been sets recently which I really liked (alchemist, bioluminecent, and endless ocean for example) but I wasn't tempted to buy them because I already had something I liked as much, or could get one in-game.

[Dreams.3128]

The prices only go up if the skins are incredibly popular.

Notice how certain skins are more expensive in their set? For example, dreamthistle warhorn is like..40 while the greatswords or staff in that same set is 100+g.

I literally is all based on how much the public loves the design. I know for a fact with these last couple of sets they look very niche or set for a specific theme, so they're not very versatile to wear on an everyday occasion.

[Leamas.5803]

Used to be a great way to make money, if you had the money to invest and wait. Back when I was doing a lot of this I found not all skins are created equally. I'd sit on them for 8 months or a year and while some increased in value quite substantially, others remained pretty static, not even breaking the 100g mark. These days, there are SO MANY "premium" skins, it's essentially a glutted market and so much to choose from that there's simply less demand.

[Liston.9708]

Others stated nicely how supply side has changed. Demand side has changed as well. Not ‘ded game’, but there are less players to buy those skins as in years past

[kharmin.7683]

@Liston.9708 said:Others stated nicely how supply side has changed. Demand side has changed as well. Not ‘ded game’, but there are less players to buy those skins as in years past

Or players have already obtained the skins that they want.

[Liston.9708]

That indeed also affects demand side kharmin.

[Danikat.8537]

@Liston.9708 said:Others stated nicely how supply side has changed. Demand side has changed as well. Not ‘ded game’, but there are less players to buy those skins as in years past

But wouldn't that be balanced out by a reduction in supply? If there were less players in-game there would be less people buying/farming black lion keys to get tickets (or weapons as direct drops) and what you'd see would be a reduction in overall numbers traded but with the same peaks and troughs in price and availability.

Unless you think the kind of people who are more likely to buy skins from the TP are also more likely to quit the game?

[Some Call Me Tim.2319]

It’s over saturated with skins. Way too many to choose from.

[Setz.9675]

Dont forget that its nearly a year now that the BLC only changes its items once a month so there is a much larger supply of anything coming out of that thing.

[Kassablanca.5821]

Only 1 skin worth getting: Royal Flame Weapon Coffer. 1 coffer let u choose 16 fire weapon skins.

[Omnicron.2467]

OK thanks everyone, I think I will repost my skins at a lower price and not risk trying to flip these anymore

[Ayakaru.6583]

Because the old supply which is cheaper has to go first.Meanwhile, people may add to the cheaper supply as well.It will take a little while for all the cheap supply to be gone.And then of course you need to hope there's still a demand

[Donari.5237]

@Limodriver.4106 said:Only 1 skin worth getting: Royal Flame Weapon Coffer. 1 coffer let u choose 16 fire weapon skins.

I think you mean choose from the skins. You don't get all 16. And with most BL sets, you can choose the skin you want on the TP, most of them more cheaply than one of those coffers. So unless you really want one of the Royal Flame Weapons and want it 70-80 gold worth, another skin might be more worth getting. All depends on personal aesthetics. I'm sitting on my one free coffer from the achieve and debating maaaaybe getting the dagger, or else selling the coffer, since the only alt I have that would really rock flame weapons already has Luminous ones.

[Khisanth.2948]

I haven't actually checked to confirm this but the new weapon sets seems to stick around for a lot longer now. For example the Orchestral set has been around for 11 months. That is probably keeping their supplies in check since most people are probably not comparing prices ...

@Teratus.2859 said:I guess most people if they really want a skin like that would rather spend 3 tickets on it than spend that kind of gold on them..

I've done this myself in the past as well.

Spending 3 tickets is basically the same as spending 100+gThat would be wasting a lot of gold

[Kassablanca.5821]

@Donari.5237 said:

@Limodriver.4106 said:Only 1 skin worth getting: Royal Flame Weapon Coffer. 1 coffer let u choose 16 fire weapon skins.

I think you mean choose

from

the skins. You don't get all 16. And with most BL sets, you can choose the skin you want on the TP, most of them more cheaply than one of those coffers.

u need to do the math, regular weapon skin is spread between 20+ skin while the coffer offer all 16 skins to choose from which one will have higher price later? which one will have more ppl buying? ppl will always go for shinning and fire effect skin first, thats why chaos skins are at 400g now

[Udolpho.1209]

Takes time and patience. Don't unlist, unless you are desperate. The prices will slowly change. They'll be highest just before those skins are cycled into drops from the black lion chests... which won't be for a loooong while. I think more people are doing what you're doing, so that means there's an excess. Unless you're willing to sell for 50 gold at the start, it's not viable for quick flips. Just leave it and forget it... one day when you don't expect it, they'll sell. It won't be anytime soon though.

[casualkenny.9817]

Possibly also greater number of speculators, some using collection tix, others hoarding and waiting to flip, only to realise supply is greater than demand

[Donari.5237]

@Limodriver.4106 said:

@Donari.5237 said:

@Limodriver.4106 said:Only 1 skin worth getting: Royal Flame Weapon Coffer. 1 coffer let u choose 16 fire weapon skins.

I think you mean choose

from

the skins. You don't get all 16. And with most BL sets, you can choose the skin you want on the TP, most of them more cheaply than one of those coffers.

u need to do the math, regular weapon skin is spread between 20+ skin while the coffer offer all 16 skins to choose from which one will have higher price later? which one will have more ppl buying? ppl will always go for shinning and fire effect skin first, thats why chaos skins are at 400g now

Ah, I thought you meant worth getting to use, not as an investment. This thread suggests that skins in general are not the best choice of investment strategy. The coffer might be an exception. Personally I'd rather have an available inventory slot than keep an investment item around for many months in the hopes of making a few gold.

[Khisanth.2948]

If you want to flip it would be better to do it with the ones that drop from the Black Lion Chests. Demand is still going to play a big role but at least you know that once the chests rotate into a new one the supply will cut off unlike the ones from tickets which can apparently linger around for a year or maybe even longer.