Black Lion Odds

[Essence Snow.3194]

Couldn't find this and idk when it was added but I previewed the Black Lion Chest today and saw that odds had been added to each category.

Common 100%

Uncommon 3%

Rare  .3-2%

Super Rare .3%

Nice to know this info.

[starlinvf.1358]

Those odds don’t add up

[Inculpatus cedo.9234]

31 minutes ago, Essence Snow.3194 said:

idk when it was added

From the Wiki:  Official drop rates were revealed with the March 19, 2024 update

[Essence Snow.3194]

23 minutes ago, Inculpatus cedo.9234 said:

From the Wiki:  Official drop rates were revealed with the March 19, 2024 update

TY...found it.

"Many containers have had drop rates added to them, most notably Black Lion Chests."

Anyone know what other containers had them added?

[Stitch.1794]

45 minutes ago, starlinvf.1358 said:

Those odds don’t add up

They don't need to because they're not referring to the same thing.

Common refers to the 3rd & 4th slots - they will always contain a common item.

Uncommon, rare, and super-rare refer to the item in the 5th slot, with the remaining ~95% being no 5th slot at all.

[Randulf.7614]

Sounds like I've got more chance of successfully navigating an asteroid field than getting anything good

[Inculpatus cedo.9234]

13 minutes ago, Stitch.1794 said:

They don't need to because they're not referring to the same thing.

Common refers to the 3rd & 4th slots - they will always contain a common item.

Uncommon, rare, and super-rare refer to the item in the 5th slot, with the remaining ~95% being no 5th slot at all.

And yet the chest states it's a 10% chance for Uncommon, Rare, Super-rare.  🤷‍♀️

 Each chest also has a 10% chance for an uncommon or better item

Edited March 22 by Inculpatus cedo.9234

[Sirius.4510]

12 minutes ago, Randulf.7614 said:

Sounds like I've got more chance of successfully navigating an asteroid field than getting anything good

I would be interested to see an analysis of the expected return from opening a Black Lion Chest, although from what I understand the result is going to be inexact because the reported drop odds of rare items are inexact. Nonetheless, I get the feeling it's under 10% of the gold value of the gems needed to buy the chest... 🙂

[DeanBB.4268]

16 minutes ago, Randulf.7614 said:

Sounds like I've got more chance of successfully navigating an asteroid field than getting anything good

"Never tell me the odds!"

[Gwynnion.7364]

As loot boxes go, they're fine, I guess, but I learned a long time ago to ignore them unless I have free keys lying around because the odds are terrible.

[nosleepdemon.1368]

Putting that into perspective a bit, based on the HIGH end droprate for super rare of 0.3%, after 40 keys spent you’d still have an approximately 88% chance of NOT ever having seen a super rare (0.997^40=0.8867). And with each failed opening, that chance of never getting a super rare by the Xth attempt increases as the drop chance in each chest is independent. Super rare is, indeed, as described!

Edited March 22 by nosleepdemon.1368

[Sobx.1758]

3 hours ago, starlinvf.1358 said:

Those odds don’t add up

Because you're not getting one item from the chest and additional item "slots" open if you roll into higher rarity.

Edited March 22 by Sobx.1758

[bq pd.2148]

2 hours ago, nosleepdemon.1368 said:

Putting that into perspective a bit, based on the HIGH end droprate for super rare of 0.3%, after 40 keys spent you’d still have an approximately 88% chance of NOT ever having seen a super rare (0.997^40=0.8867). And with each failed opening, that chance of never getting a super rare by the Xth attempt increases as the drop chance in each chest is independent. Super rare is, indeed, as described!

thats unfair mine shows only 0.03% for super rare..

[Ashen.2907]

4 hours ago, Randulf.7614 said:

Sounds like I've got more chance of successfully navigating an asteroid field than getting anything good

"Never tell me the odds."

[Omega.6801]

"Truth is, the game was rigged from the start."

[Pifil.5193]

4 hours ago, Inculpatus cedo.9234 said:

And yet the chest states it's a 10% chance for Uncommon, Rare, Super-rare.  🤷‍♀️

 Each chest also has a 10% chance for an uncommon or better item

Yeah, the drop rates for uncommon, rare and super rare are confusing, the chest tooltip says 10% chance but the odds for uncommon or better add up to 5%.

[Zebulous.2934]

So a golden key changes the 10% to 100% Does it also affect the other numbers?  A 5th item is guaranteed with a golden key.

There are 50 items, so it's 3%, 2%-.3%, and .03% of 50 rather than out of 100. So 3% should be 1.5 times out of 50 we would get a specific common, 1 time out of 50 we will pull one of the more common rares, and .015 times out of 50 we would get a particular service contract.

Nothing adds up though.  The golden key forces a fifth drop, but from these numbers I still have no clue what my chances are to get a skiff skin.

For that matter after you collect the two exclusive skins, the odds of getting everything else should improve.  Either the exclusives are replaced on the drop table or the drop is re-rolled.  A golden key won't allow anything else.

Another interesting note: we used to be able to preview the keys the same way we preview the black lion chests.  It would bring up the same menu screen. I had hoped that I could preview a golden key and see adjusted drop chances.  Anet seems to have taken that into account by removing the ability to preview either type of black lion chest key.

[Blood Red Arachnid.2493]

5 hours ago, Zebulous.2934 said:

So a golden key changes the 10% to 100% Does it also affect the other numbers?  A 5th item is guaranteed with a golden key.

There are 50 items, so it's 3%, 2%-.3%, and .03% of 50 rather than out of 100. So 3% should be 1.5 times out of 50 we would get a specific common, 1 time out of 50 we will pull one of the more common rares, and .015 times out of 50 we would get a particular service contract.

Nothing adds up though.  The golden key forces a fifth drop, but from these numbers I still have no clue what my chances are to get a skiff skin.

For that matter after you collect the two exclusive skins, the odds of getting everything else should improve.  Either the exclusives are replaced on the drop table or the drop is re-rolled.  A golden key won't allow anything else.

Another interesting note: we used to be able to preview the keys the same way we preview the black lion chests.  It would bring up the same menu screen. I had hoped that I could preview a golden key and see adjusted drop chances.  Anet seems to have taken that into account by removing the ability to preview either type of black lion chest key.

The easiest way to understand it is to think of two roulette wheels.  One roulette wheel spins to determine if you're going to get an uncommon or higher drop.  If that wheel lands in "winner" section, a second wheel will spin to determine what kind of drop you'll get.  The odds that you see listed on each of those categories is roughly the chance that you'll get them... from the second wheel.  The golden key bypasses the first wheel altogether, and just skips to the second wheel.  

[Eloc Freidon.5692]

In my opinion, this isn't transparent enough. I hope EU pushes it so that actual loot results need to be listed somewhere.

I've played other games that has a feed that shows when someone gets any of the high rarity items. It doesn't show how many keys are used, but it is a step in the right direction.

[Zebulous.2934]

that being the case, I guess the drop rate for getting any uncommon drop is 60% with a golden key, and 0.15% to get a service contract.  That leaves a 39.85% chance to get a rare when you use a golden key. (though some rares are far more likely to drop than others, if you get a rare)  Basically golden keys give you a 60% chance at a random uncommon, and 40ish% chance to get some kind of rare. The super rares being negligible.
20 uncommon at 3% each = 60%

5 super rare at 0.03% each =0.15%

then the absurdly vague rares in a range of 0.3% to 2%. We know that there are 25 of them and that there is 39.85% remaining out of 100%.  We only know the minimum and maximum thresholds, and that several have to be near 2% because 25 of the 0.3% won't give us a complete 100%

[Zebulous.2934]

10 minutes ago, Eloc Freidon.5692 said:

In my opinion, this isn't transparent enough. I hope EU pushes it so that actual loot results need to be listed somewhere.

I've played other games that has a feed that shows when someone gets any of the high rarity items. It doesn't show how many keys are used, but it is a step in the right direction.

I always thought the announcing the high rarity pulls were just a ploy by gatcha games to convince players that pulling the super ultra mega rare wasn't that difficult.  I mean look, ten people in a row just opened one within the past few seconds.  Never mind the fact that thousands of players are currently opening gatcha packs and only ten people managed to pull the ridiculously rare gatcha.  Of course no one is making those games post the winners in real time either, or preventing them from posting the same lucky player names every ten or so minutes.

[Astralporing.1957]

16 hours ago, Inculpatus cedo.9234 said:

And yet the chest states it's a 10% chance for Uncommon, Rare, Super-rare.  🤷‍♀️

 Each chest also has a 10% chance for an uncommon or better item

There's a thread on those chances and what the numbers can actually mean (and how they look compared to the data we have on BLCs so far). Notice, that it does not comment on possibility that BLC drop rates might have changed, as there's no data to verity that at the moment. (the only case where we do know rates had to have changed is dye packs, as the new info is just way off the original drop rates, and it is too simple to be interpreted in multiple ways).

Still, yeah, better clarity of what those numbers mean would be nice, because at this point they seem to be a bit confusing.

[Holmindeboks.3490]

On 3/23/2024 at 6:56 AM, Eloc Freidon.5692 said:

In my opinion, this isn't transparent enough. I hope EU pushes it so that actual loot results need to be listed somewhere.

I've played other games that has a feed that shows when someone gets any of the high rarity items. It doesn't show how many keys are used, but it is a step in the right direction.

I hope the EU push them to end this practise and that for eu all bl chest items would be purchaseable. Ridiculous that company’s stay healthy because of gamble addictive ppl. Company’s should make real and good content instead of making money from gambling. 

Edited March 25 by Holmindeboks.3490

[kiroho.4738]

19 hours ago, Randulf.7614 said:

Sounds like I've got more chance of successfully navigating an asteroid field than getting anything good

Given how much free space usually is in an astroid field, yes navigating through such one shouldn't be that hard and definitely have a better chance for success than the bL chest. 🙂 

[Essence Snow.3194]

2 hours ago, Astralporing.1957 said:

There's a thread on those chances and what the numbers can actually mean (and how they look compared to the data we have on BLCs so far). Notice, that it does not comment on possibility that BLC drop rates might have changed, as there's no data to verity that at the moment. (the only case where we do know rates had to have changed is dye packs, as the new info is just way off the original drop rates, and it is too simple to be interpreted in multiple ways).

Still, yeah, better clarity of what those numbers mean would be nice, because at this point they seem to be a bit confusing.

Ty for the link to that thread.