Suspicious streak of bad luck with Tequatl

[Ashen.2907]

I have lost count of how many times I have done Teq over the years. Certainly hundreds. Never an ascended weapon drop. RNG is RNG. 

[AgentMoore.9453]

Just now, Ashen.2907 said:

I have lost count of how many times I have done Teq over the years. Certainly hundreds. Never an ascended weapon drop. RNG is RNG. 

"Math is math!" But yeah, agree. I got a Teq hoard this year for the first time in all my years of playing, and it's just as random as all the times I didn't.

I will say though that I'd enjoy a token system for these RNG weapons sets (Teq, Aurene, etc). Getting one (or no) weapon from a set every 9 years isn't exactly ideal when you could instead get a guaranteed token from each successful kill and then trade them in after you've saved up your heap.

[Ashen.2907]

2 minutes ago, AgentMoore.9453 said:

"Math is math!" But yeah, agree. I got a Teq hoard this year for the first time in all my years of playing, and it's just as random as all the times I didn't.

I will say though that I'd enjoy a token system for these RNG weapons sets (Teq, Aurene, etc). Getting one (or no) weapon from a set every 9 years isn't exactly ideal when you could instead get a guaranteed token from each successful kill and then trade them in after you've saved up your heap.

HOnestly I don't really mind RNG for some rewards as it can add something to the game. That said, 15 minutes or so with effectively no reward at the end, or the possibility of an ascended weapon drop that matches your legendary weapon and so has no value seems poorly thought out.

 

Make this stuff tradeable at least so the guy in full legendary, or who has a stockpile of ascended, or who has no use for a given drop can get some value from their reward.

[Balsa.3951]

in 9 years never got any ascended from teq.

im not doing teq every day but it should be around 300+ tries by now

[Khisanth.2948]

Looking at the loot drops from Teq, whoever is making claims about drop rates better have a mountain of data to back it up because there are multiple sources of ascended weapons from Teq. It can drop from the chest that spawns on the ground, the exotic dragon chest, and the non-exotic dragon chests can drop gilded coffers(might depend on rarity as well) which can also drop ascended weapon chest. Tequatl's Hoard also gives ascended weapons but that is probably lower than the standard ones.

[Fantazyz.4723]

You guys get drops? I stopped doing those dailies and just focused on fractals and strikes 

[vinterberg.2783]

11 hours ago, The Boz.2038 said:

I do the Tequatl event nearly every day, at least six times a week, and have been doing so for over a year now. It used to be a steady way of getting ascended weapons for my toons.

Have you considered doing daily fractals, or just farm some gold or mats to craft them directly? 

I do T4+recs daily and I'm swimming in ascended weapon+armor chests. 

[The Boz.2038]

I am just getting back into those. Have done it enough for an Ad Infinitum, and then some, and can do CMs, even as an alacren, but it's kinda tedious.

[vinterberg.2783]

Tedious..? What do you call doing Teq in hopes of asc. drops then? 

You also get asc mats from fractals on a frequent basis, to use in crafting.. 

Plus the gold and stuff you earn from dailies, which can be translated into asc weapons/armor. 

Edited December 22, 2021 by vinterberg.2783

[Sobx.1758]

49 minutes ago, The Boz.2038 said:

Reading comprehension amongst youth today, honestly...

"Great" non-response when you understand you're wrong I guess 🤷‍♂️ 

Anyways, nothing "suspicious" about not getting ascended from teq.

Edited December 22, 2021 by Sobx.1758

[vinterberg.2783]

It just seems to me that maybe you want "the easy road", because Teq doesn't require any skills/effort.. But asc gear isn't meant to be so easy to acquire IMHO; put in some actual work and get some fractal exercise going.. They're really not that hard to get done daily with a group that know the basics. Hell, I did T4+recs today (with T4 Sunqua) as healer on my CFB/HFB celestial gear hybrid build - had so much fun ❤️ The team knew mechanics, and we cleared all dailies without hickups - plus a lovely and fun party chat while doing them... Most people are really nice, which makes it a fun thing to do daily! 

Waiting at Teq for 15 mins before start, then doing all the boring "fighting" until that thing is dead - would rather spend 30-40 mins on T4 and be at least somewhat challenged, any day. 

Edited December 22, 2021 by vinterberg.2783

[Vayne.8563]

18 hours ago, The Boz.2038 said:

If it is bad luck, man, my entire account must be *entirely cursed*.

3400 hours, 0 precursor drops, really (really!) rotten luck with the mystic coin conversion... the only thing I ever got worth over 100GP is the healing winter's heart infusion.

I get a precursor drop about every 5000 hours, so your account is probably not cursed. They're just very rare. I've had five precursor drops and I've played 25,000 hours. 

[Alcatraznc.3869]

Do you know how RNG works ? You claim that your recent try had no success and conclude that your account has a bad luck but I am sure I can find someone out there who got 2-3 ascended weapon back to back from doing Tequatl.

 

Sometime you win sometime you lose that's how it is. I've done Dragonstorm a tons of time and I'm still waiting for Aurene's weapon box whereas a friend of mine who did like 25% less Dragonstorm than me got one Aurene's weapon box and Ryland's ascended greatsword. 

 

That being said if your goal is to grab ascended weapon then just do T4 fractal. I got a bunch of good stuff from that

[Teratus.2859]

Consider yourself lucky to even  have ascended drops from it.

Some of us have run Teq on a daily basis for years and have never gotten an ascended drop from it.
I give up trying a long time ago because of that.. meanwhile several people I know have gotten hordes on their first time running the boss... such bs lol

[mercury ranique.2170]

Imagine winning the jackpot in a lottery. Would you suspect it would be faul play cause nobody could be that lucky??
Now understand that the chance of winning the jackpot in the lottery is a lot lower then the chance on running a bad streak with these Tequatl drops.

People assume that when you have a 3% drop, you should have it once every 33-34 days. But that is not the case. It would be an average. But in realtiy everytime you do Tequatl you just have a 3% chance. The system does not recognise past drops or award you something based on past drops. 

[Teratus.2859]

10 minutes ago, mercury ranique.2170 said:

Imagine winning the jackpot in a lottery. Would you suspect it would be faul play cause nobody could be that lucky??
Now understand that the chance of winning the jackpot in the lottery is a lot lower then the chance on running a bad streak with these Tequatl drops.

People assume that when you have a 3% drop, you should have it once every 33-34 days. But that is not the case. It would be an average. But in realtiy everytime you do Tequatl you just have a 3% chance. The system does not recognise past drops or award you something based on past drops. 

If your goal is to unlock all the skins multiple years without a drop is more than enough to make you give up.

With my past luck it'll probably take me 30+ years just to get most of them XD
I don't want them that badly lol

[The Boz.2038]

7 hours ago, Sobx.1758 said:

"Great" non-response when you understand you're wrong I guess 🤷‍♂️ 

Anyways, nothing "suspicious" about not getting ascended from teq.

Have you met tenses before? Do you understand how they work? Can you comprehend how the sentence "it used to be like this, but now it is no longer like that" works?

Let's go back to my OP.

"I do the Tequatl event nearly every day, at least six times a week, and have been doing so for over a year now."
So far so good! We start off with a present simple, "I do X", and continue with a past continuous, "have been -ing". This describes an action that I had started to engage in at some time in the past, but am still engaging in.

"It used to be a steady way of getting ascended weapons for my toons."
We're up to past perfect now! Notice how "used to" refers to something that was true at one point in time, but no longer is.

"The wiki suggests an ascended weapon box drops for a participating player ~3% of the time, and my own experience used to confirm exactly that: I'd get an ascended box about once per month."
The start here is a present simple again, which then continues again into a past perfect; "...used to confirm...". Now, I understand that the construct "I'd get an" is initially confusing, but it is in actuality a common past participle. Still talking about the past here, with the context clearly framing it as past perfect: used to be, but no longer is.

"However, the last time I got an ascended drop from the event was around the 20th of July."
This is the key point. This sentence describes an event that happened in the past, that demarcates the previous period of "my drops seem to be just about the average" and the new period of "there ain't no drops, man".

"That's about 150 days ago, during which I have done the meta at least 120 times. Going 90 or a hundred days on 0 drops was a bit suspicious, but a full 150?"
Note the use of the past continuous tense here; this happened and is still happening. This is my current streak now.

Now, to take the two periods into context together:
I've had about eight months of daily Tequatl that rewards an ascended weapon box of this or that type about 3% of the time, or about once a month. One Hoard and six other boxes dropped in total.
Then starts a new period of about five months now of 0 drops. This, together with the previous period, for the entire year and one month, results in about half the expected yield.

Do you now understand how the entire dataset indicates less than average yields? Do you still claim that "getting what seems to be the exact average" is lucky?

[The Boz.2038]

55 minutes ago, Alcatraznc.3869 said:

That being said if your goal is to grab ascended weapon then just do T4 fractal. I got a bunch of good stuff from that

Have done a fair bit of Fractals; T4 and CM. Not a single ascended drop other than the odd ring or accessory. Have never actually met anyone that had an ascended weapon drop in fractals.

[Fuchslein.8639]

Sorry, but then you may have played a few fractals and/or know very few people who run fractals regularly.
When I still ran my 30-45min fractals+recs every day I got at least one asc box every week. Sometimes even 2 and a few times I was lucky and got 4 boxes of 2 double drops in one week. Where do you think the thought of people who have a legy-armor comes from, that they would like to do more with asc than to sell it at a trader for 1g?
Surely not from people who are as lucky as you and drop heaps of Asc-boxes in the Open World ...

But maybe all your luck was really in teq-dropps and now you have a streak of bad luck. How terrible :D.

[The Boz.2038]

11 hours ago, Khisanth.2948 said:

Looking at the loot drops from Teq, whoever is making claims about drop rates better have a mountain of data to back it up because there are multiple sources of ascended weapons from Teq. It can drop from the chest that spawns on the ground, the exotic dragon chest, and the non-exotic dragon chests can drop gilded coffers(might depend on rarity as well) which can also drop ascended weapon chest. Tequatl's Hoard also gives ascended weapons but that is probably lower than the standard ones.

The only source of the Tequatl ascended weapon chest or Hoard is the daily event reward chest, the exotic Dragon Chest. The only ascended drop in a Gilded Coffer is a Magnificent Orrian Chest, which contains an ascended accessory; Zhaitan's Claw. Never got that one. 

My dataset of odds is pretty large; ~300 days of doing the event. The wiki sets aren't larger, but there's three of them, and they kinda fit the first half of my own year's data. Given that they indicate the chances of a drop are ~3% (or at least between 2 and 5%), according to different data sets, a data set of fifty is already significant enough to go hmm. The odds of a 3% drop not giving anything for a hundred days in a row are below 5%.

 

[Inculpatus cedo.9234]

Hmm...

The first 'data set' is 0 out of 40.

The second 'data set' is 3 out of 100.

The third 'data set' is suspect, but, if true, 3 out of 50.

Total data sets offered in thread/Wiki is from 3 players. (Not counting all those that said they have done Tequatl for years with 0 Ascended drops.)

No one has offered any 'data sets' in 6 years on the Wiki.   I'm not sure how accurate this '3%' is.  One really can't just use half of the data one collects and dismiss the other half. 

Edited December 22, 2021 by Inculpatus cedo.9234
more info

[The Boz.2038]

2 minutes ago, Inculpatus cedo.9234 said:

The first 'data set' is 0 out of 40.

The second 'data set' is 3 out of 100.

The third 'data set' is suspect, but, if true, 3 out of 50.

Total data sets offered in thread/Wiki is from 3 players.

No one has offered any 'data sets' in 6 years on the Wiki.   I'm not sure how accurate this '3%' is.  One really can't just use half of the data one collects and dismiss the other half. 

If we assume that it's 3% exactly, just for the sake of the thought experiment, the first data set of 0 out of 40 has a 30% chance of occuring. One can't use half the data and dismiss the other half, I agree. That's why I started this thread; I wanted to ask others about their own experience, among other things.

[Cyninja.2954]

40 minutes ago, The Boz.2038 said:

Have done a fair bit of Fractals; T4 and CM. Not a single ascended drop other than the odd ring or accessory. Have never actually met anyone that had an ascended weapon drop in fractals.

 

 https://killproof.me/proof/e7bm

 

When people say fractals give ascended loot, that's not a guarantee for every day. It's over a set period of time. Stick with it as you have with Tequatle.

[Inculpatus cedo.9234]

Then, perhaps, with so few 'data sets' one should not ignore the latter half of one's own data set (to come up with a different total percentage).  🤷‍♂️

[Gerebos.1065]

I got zero ascended from Teq in many many many years and tries but I got enough gold from selling spoons that I managed to buy a precursor with it.Probably in every kitchen in Tyria is a spoon which I sold.